大连海事大学船舶安全管理教案第二章

1、第二章第二章 现代安全管理理论及应用现代安全管理理论及应用l第一节 安全系统工程（safety system engineering）系统和系统工程（system&system engineering)安全系统工程（safety system engineering）系统安全分析(Hazard Analysis)系统安全评价(Risk Analysis or Assessment)l第二节 安全管理辅助技术(safety management techniques)System engineeringl系统（System） ：是由相互作用、相互依赖的若干部分组成的，具有特定功能的有机整

2、体；有是其从属的更大系统的组成部分。l系统工程（System engineering） 是以大型复杂的人工系统和复合系统为研究对象，按一定的目的进行设计、开发、管理、和控制，以达到总体效果最优的理论和方法。General System Theory；Cybernetics；Information Theory； Operation ResearchSystem engineeringl常用方法：霍尔三维结构切克兰德方法和库尔曼方法统一规划法PDCA loop(Plan,Do,Check,Action) （ 计划、实施、检查、处理）Safety System Engineeringl安全系统工程

3、：应用系统工程的原则和方法，分析、评价、预测和控制系统中的危险因素，通过指导设计、调整工艺和设备、协调操作过程、管理方法、生产周期和费用投资等因素，使系统的事故减少到最低限度，使系统的安全运作达到最佳状态。Safety System Engineeringl系统安全分析（Hazard Analysis），又称危害分析，侧重于“识别危险”（risk identification）l系统安全评价（Risk Analysis or Safety Assessment）侧重于“量化”危险（risk quantification）lWidely used Techniques:安全检查表SCL (Saf

4、ety Check list);事件树分析ETA(Event Tree Analysis);事故树分析FTA(Fault Tree Analysis).What is Risk AnalysislRisk analysis ,as used for the assessment of the hazards associated with ships, can be summarized by three questions:1.what can go wrong ?2.what are the effects and consequences?3.how often will it happ

5、en?The results of the analysis are used for judgement, about the acceptability of the risk and for decision making.What is Risk Analysis-DrawbackslThe methodology is sophisticated and sometime misleading;lThe determination the acceptability of the risk often involves subjectiveness;l the safety cost

6、 is always concerned.The FSA(Formal Safety Assessment) MethodologylThe FSA Methodology was developed by the UK.lInternational Guidelines encompassing all key elements of the FSA methodology were generated by an international FSA working group convened at MSC66 and MSC67.The FSA(Formal Safety Assessm

7、ent) MethodologylThe FSA approach comprises five steps:1.identification of hazards;2.assessment of risks associated with those hazards;3.consideration of alternative ways of managing those risks;4.cost benefit assessment of alternative risk management options;5.decisions on which option to select.Risk MatrixA Methodology Intolerable Acceptable rare unlikely p ossible frequent FREQUENCY catastrop hic major ble moderate minor CONSEQUENCE 安全管理辅助技术安全管理辅助技术(safety management techniques)l调查表l分层法l水平对比法l头脑风暴法l因果图法l流程图法l树图l控制图l直方图