人民币实际有效汇率论文：人民币实际有效汇率升值进出口影响

1、人民币实际有效汇率论文：人民币实际有效汇率 升值 进出口 影响 【中文摘要】 进出口贸易对拉动我国经济增长起着不可忽视的作 用。湖南虽然不是进出口大省，但湖南正在借“中部崛起”的历史性 机遇,采取有效措施，扩大对外贸易规模，以促进经济增长。然而扩大 对外贸易规模，就必须要关注人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口 的影响。因为人民币实际有效汇率升值会导致湖南经济生活一系列调 整,尤其将直接导致进出口价格的变动，从而影响湖南对外贸易扩张。 因此研究人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口贸易的影响 ，具有重 要的现实意义。 关于人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南省进出口贸易的 影响,学术界虽然已经进行了一定的研

2、究，但就已有的研究成果看，尚 存在诸多不足之处，这不仅表现为研究视角的欠缺，更重要的是这些 研究范式单一，要么只做定性研究，要么只做定量分析，并且都以零散 的论文形式出现，尚未形成系统的研究成果。因此,本文试图采用理论 分析和实证分析相结合的方法，填补该问题系统研究的空白。本研究 以购买力平价理论和弹性分析理论为基础，首先分析近年人民币实际 有效汇率升值的原因，因为原因存在的持续性，人民币升值具有长期 趋势。然后本文通过机制分析就人民币汇率升值对湖南进出口产生影 响的渠道进行阐述，具体而言人民币汇率将通过影响贸易价格、贸易 方式、贸易模式、贸易环境四个方面导致湖南进出口贸易的变动。进 而通过实

3、证分析对人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口贸易的影 响从定量的角度进行探讨。实证分析通过构建计量模型 ，可以证明人 民币实际有效汇率和湖南进出口贸易两者间存在短期和长期的均衡 关系,并且就整体而言，人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南出口的影响 更为显著。结合分析结论，本文提出湖南省进出口贸易应当提升质量， 树立品牌；优化进出口贸易结构；发展战略性新兴出口产业；实现进出 口市场的广泛性的对策建议。 【英文摘要】Import and export trade in stimulating economic growth plays a sig nifica nt role. Although Hunan

4、 province isn t an importa nt import and export provin ce, Hunan is using the historic opport unity of “ Rise of Cen tral Chi na ” ,to take effective measures to expand the scale of foreign trade and to promote econo mic growth. However, expa nding the scale of international trade, it is necessary t

5、o pay attention to the real effective exchange rate of RMBhppreciation on the impact of imports and exports in Hunan. Because the real effective excha nge rate appreciati on would lead a series of adjustme nts to economic life of Hunan, in particular, will lead direct changes in import and export pr

6、ices, then affect the expansion of foreig n trade in Hunan. Therefore, real effective excha nge rate of RMB appreciation on import and export of Hunan, has important practical significance.About the title, some academic researches have bee n done, but look at the exist ing research results, there ar

7、e still many shortcomings. Some of these studies not only lack of perspective, but also have a problem, a sin gle paradigm, or qualitative or qua ntitative analysis only. And all the fragmented paper form, haven t form a system research results. Therefore, this paper attempts to use a method, comb i

8、n ati on of theoretical and empirical an alysis to fill gaps in the systematic study of the problem.The purchas ing power parity theory and elasticity theory are the basic theory, at first the paper analysis the reasons why real effective excha nge rate of RMB appreciati on in rece nt years. The n t

9、hrough theoretical to an alysis the appreciati on of the RMB excha nge rate impact on imports and exports in Hunan, specifically, RMB excha nge rate will affect the trade price, trade methods, trade patter ns, and the trade en vir onment four aspects. And the n through empirical an alysis of the real effective excha nge rate appreciati on on import and export of Hunanby con struct ing a measureme nt model, the result can prove that the real effective excha nge rate and Hunan import and export trade have both short-term and Ion g-term equilibrium relati on ship, and on