专业英语物流与供应链管理 4

1、Chapter 4 Strategic lead-time managementThis chapter：nExplores the cost of time and the drivers of time-based competition; shortening product life cycles, customers desire for reduced inventories and the dangers of being forecast dependent in an increasingly volatile marketplace. n探讨时间成本和时间竞争的驱动力；正在

2、探讨时间成本和时间竞争的驱动力；正在不断缩短的产品生命周期，客户减少库存不断缩短的产品生命周期，客户减少库存的要求，在动荡的市场环境下过分依赖预的要求，在动荡的市场环境下过分依赖预测的种种风险。测的种种风险。nExamines the concept of lead time, the order-to-delivery cycle, its components and the need to consider the wider context of the order to-cash cycle.n分析前置时间、订单周期的概念及其构成分析前置时间、订单周期的概念及其构成要素，从更大范围来

3、考察订货变现周期。要素，从更大范围来考察订货变现周期。nLooks at how the reduction of lead times can impact on the goals of logistics pipeline management.n研究缩短前置时间是如何影响物流渠道管研究缩短前置时间是如何影响物流渠道管理目标的。理目标的。nOutlines some of the ways in which inadequate systems design can lengthen lead times and engineer cost rather than value into

4、the logistics process.n概括了一些不恰当的系统设计方法，它们延长了概括了一些不恰当的系统设计方法，它们延长了前置时间，并增加了设计成本，却对物流过程的前置时间，并增加了设计成本，却对物流过程的增值贡献不大。增值贡献不大。nintroduces the concept of the lead-time gap, offering a number of suggestions for lead time. n介绍前置时间差的概念，提出一些缩短前置时间介绍前置时间差的概念，提出一些缩短前置时间的建议。的建议。Compendiumn1.Time-based competitio

5、nn2.The concept of lead timen3.Logistics pipeline managementn4.Logistics value engineeringn5.The lead-time gapn6.Summary1.Time-based competition时间竞争 Time is money.As far as cost is Concerned there is A direct relationship Between the lengthOf the logistics pipelineAnd the inventory that Is locked up

6、 in it.首先，就成本首先，就成本而言，物流渠而言，物流渠道的长度与渠道的长度与渠道中的存货数道中的存货数量有直接的关量有直接的关系。系。Secondly, long lead times mean a slower response to customer requirements.其次，过长的其次，过长的前置时间意味前置时间意味着对客户需求着对客户需求反应的延迟。反应的延迟。Customers in all markets, industrial or consumer, are increasingly time-sensitive.Question 1Question 1 What

7、 are the pressures leading to the growth of time-sensitive markets?Customers drive for for reduced inventoriesVolatile market making reliance on forecasts DangerousShortening life CyclesTime-sensitive market不断缩短的产品生命周期客户降低库存的需求由于市场多变，过于依赖预测很危险 The concept of the product life cycle: For many products

8、, there is a recognizable pattern of sales from launch through to final decline.(1) Shortening life cycles许多产品从投入市场许多产品从投入市场到最后淡出市场，其到最后淡出市场，其销量遵循一个公认的销量遵循一个公认的模式。模式。The product life cycleSales()introductiongrowthmaturitysaturationdeclinetime导入期成长期成熟期饱和期衰退期产品生命周期2.Customers drive for reduced invento

9、ry one of the most pronounced phenomena of recent years has been the almost universal move by companies to reduce their inventories.这些年，一个最明显的这些年，一个最明显的现象就是全球所有的企现象就是全球所有的企业都在着手降低它们的业都在着手降低它们的库存。库存。客户降低库存的需求Question 1 What is the difference between traditional and modern ways to service customers wh

10、o require just-in-time deliveries?nMany companies still think that the only way to service customers who require just-in-time deliveries is for them, the supplier, to carry the inventory instead of the customer.nInstead what is needed is for the supplier to substitute responsiveness for inventory wh

11、enever possible. 许多公司仍然认为，给客户提许多公司仍然认为，给客户提供及时配送服务的唯一方法，供及时配送服务的唯一方法，就是只能由供应商代替客户持就是只能由供应商代替客户持有库存。有库存。其实作为供应商真正需其实作为供应商真正需要的是：在必要的时候要的是：在必要的时候用快速反应来代替大量用快速反应来代替大量的库存。的库存。Question 2How to achieve responsiveness?Why? Responsiveness essentially is achieved through time compression in the supply chain.

12、 Time compressionService enhancementCost reduction压缩时间完善服务缩减成本Breaking free of the classic service/cost trade-off打破传统的服务、成本权衡关系3.Volatile market making reliance on forecasts dangerous Question nWhats the continuing problem for most organizations according to text?nWhats the root cause of these probl

13、ems?由于市场多变，过于依赖预测很危险nA continuing problem for most organizations is the inaccuracy of forecast.nWhilst many forecasting errors are the result of inappropriate forecasting methodology the root cause of these problems is that forecast error increases as led time increases.time+-ForecasterrorForecast e

14、rror and planning horizons预测误差和计划水平2.The concept of lead timeQuestion Whats the meaning of lead time from the customers viewpoint and from the suppliers perspective respectively?From the customers viewpointThe elapsed time from order to delivery.From the suppliers viewpointThe time it takes to conve

15、rt an order Into cash.从从发出订单到发出订单到收到货物收到货物的这段时的这段时间。间。从从接受订单到接受订单到收回现金收回现金的时间的时间(1)The order-to-delivery cycleCustomer Places orderOrderprocessingOrderentryOrderassemblyTransportOrderreceivedThe components of order cycle time客户订单提交 订单录入 订单处理 订单组货 运输 订货到达Total order cycle with variability1.Order comm

16、unication2.Order entry and processing3.Order picking or production5.Customer receiving4.transportationtotal3Time range1to5daysTime range1to3days2Time range1to9days53Time range1to5days2Time range1to3days5 days25 days15运输订单录入及处理按单拣选或生产客户接受订货前沟通订单履行周期的变动程度nIn those situations where orders are not met f

17、rom stock but may have to be manufactured, assembled or sourced from external vendors, then clearly lead times will be even further extended with the possibility of still greater variations in total order-to-delivery time. Lead time componentn.Ordering reception lead tinePlanning lead timeProcessing

18、 lead timeMaterials planning and purchase lead timesupplier lead tinetransport lead tineReception and inspection lead tineAssembly release and order pickingWaiting timesProcessing timesTransport time to next stage(e.g.to inventory assembly)Dispatch preparation time(documents,packages)Transport time

19、to customerCommercial And planningLead time Materials Lead timesAssemblyLead timesDistributionLead timesInstallationLead times商业和计划前置时间原材料前置时间汇总前置时间配送前置时间安装前置时间前置时间构成要素(2)The cash-to-cash cycleQuestion Whats the basic concern of any organization? what is rule of thumb?CumulativeLead timeprocurementT

20、o paymentRaw material stockSubassembly productionIntermediate stockProduct assemblyFinished stock at Central warehouseIn-transitRegional distribution Central stockCustomer order cycle累积的前置时间（从采购到付款）Strategic lead-time management The longer the pipeline from source of material to the final user the l

21、ess responsive to changes in demand the system will be.从原材料到最终使从原材料到最终使用者的渠道越长，用者的渠道越长，系统就越缺乏对需系统就越缺乏对需求变动的应变能力求变动的应变能力nAn approximate rule of thumb suggests that the amount of safety stock in a pipeline varies with the square foot of the pipeline length.一个类似于一个类似于“大大拇指拇指”的规则指的规则指出，安全库存数出，安全库存数量的多少取

22、决于量的多少取决于渠道长度的平方渠道长度的平方根。根。 3.logistics pipeline managementQuestion 1 How to control logistics lead times successfully?nThe key to the successful control of the logistics lead time is pipeline management.成功控制物流前置成功控制物流前置时间的关键是实施时间的关键是实施物流渠道管理。物流渠道管理。Question 2 What are the goals of the pipeline mana

23、gement?The goals of the pipeline managementgoals Lower costs Higher qualityMore flexibility Faster response time更低的成本更高的质量高强的灵活性更快的反应速度How to achieve these goalsnManage the supply chain as an entity and seeking to reduce the pipeline length and/or cost to speed up the flow through that pipeline.nTo

24、find ways in which the ratio of value-added to cost-added time in the pipeline can be improved. 将将供应链作为一个整体进行管理，供应链作为一个整体进行管理，并缩短整个渠道的长度，同时（或并缩短整个渠道的长度，同时（或者）加速物品在渠道中的流动。者）加速物品在渠道中的流动。找到可以提高增值时间与成本增加找到可以提高增值时间与成本增加时间比率的方法。时间比率的方法。Value-adding time(time,place and form utility)Cost-adding time(promoti

25、on,storage and transport cost and the time cost of money)Raw materialstockproductionFinished stockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-added versus value-added time引起价值增加和成本增加的活动（时间、地点和形态效用）增值时间原材料库存生产产成品库存运输区域库存客户配送Cost-added versus value-added time 成本增加时间（促销、仓储和运输成本及时间成本）Value-adding timeRa

26、w materialstockproductionFinished stockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryRaw materialstockproductionFinished stockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-adding timeReducing non-value-adding time improves service and reduces cost通过减少非增值时间来提高服务水平并降低成本3.Logistics value engineeringnMany busine

27、ss have invested heavily in automation in the factory with the aim of reducing throughput times.nHowever it is paradoxical that many of those same business that have spent millions of pounds on automation to speed up the time it takes to manufacture a product are then content to let it sit in a dist

28、ribution centre or warehouse for weeks waiting to be sold. nThe requirement is to look across the different stages in the supply chain to see how time as a whole can be reduced through reengineering the way the chain is structured. Example 1: Planning cycle/manufacturing lead time Example 2: Forecas

29、ting and ordering of suppliers Example 3: Warehouse picking and distributionOne pointIn so many cases it is possible to find considerable Opportunity for total lead-time reduction, often throughSome very simple changes in procedure. 4.The lead-time gapQuestion 1 According to the text, most organizat

30、ions face a fundamental problem, what is it? The time it takes to procure, make and deliver the finished product to a customer is longer than the time the customer is prepared to wait for it. This is the basis of the lead-time gap.The lead-time gapprocurementCustomers order cycledeliverymanufacturin

31、gLogistics lead timeThe lead-time gapOrder fulfillment采购生产配送物流前置时间客户订货周期前置时间差订单履行Question 2 Whats the customers order cycle? The length of time that the customer is prepare to wait, from when the order is placed through to when the goods are received. The competitive conditions of the market as well

32、 as the nature of the product will influence the customers willingness to wait.The factors that influence the customers willingness to wait: How to close the lead-time gap?nshortening logistics lead timenMove the customers order cycle closer by gaining earlier warning of requirements through improve

33、d visibility of demand.缩短物流前置时间缩短物流前置时间通过提高需求的可见性，通过提高需求的可见性，尽量把客户订货周期调整尽量把客户订货周期调整到与早期得到的需求信息到与早期得到的需求信息更接近。更接近。Question 3 All the logistics processes can be viewed as a network of inter-linked activities that can be optimized as a whole by focusing on total throughput time. Any attempt to manage b

34、y optimizing individual elements or activities in the process will lead to a less-than-optimal result overall. 所有的物流过程都能被看做是所有的物流过程都能被看做是 由各由各种具有内在联系的活动所形成的一种具有内在联系的活动所形成的一个网络，要想优化这个网络，必须个网络，要想优化这个网络，必须要通过调整总体运营时间才能得以要通过调整总体运营时间才能得以实现。而单纯通过优化个别要素或实现。而单纯通过优化个别要素或过程中个别活动只能得到一个次优过程中个别活动只能得到一个次优化的结果。化的结

35、果。（1）reducing logistics lead -timeQuestion 4 Whats OPT? whats its essence?nA significant contribution to the way we view logistics processes has been made by Goldratt who has developed the theory of constraints(约束理论) which is more usually known as Optimized Production Technology （生产技术优化理论）(OPT).nThe

36、 essence of OPT is that all activities in a logistics chain can be categorized as either bottlenecks or non-bottlenecks.OPTOPT把一个把一个物流链中的所有物流链中的所有活动划分为瓶颈活动划分为瓶颈类或非瓶颈类。类或非瓶颈类。Question 5What is a bottleneck? A bottleneck is the slowest activity in a chain and whilst it may often be a machine, it could

37、 also be a part of the information flow such as order processing. 瓶颈是指整个链中最瓶颈是指整个链中最慢的活动，它可以是慢的活动，它可以是一台机器，也可以是一台机器，也可以是像订单处理一样的信像订单处理一样的信息流的一部分。息流的一部分。nFurther opportunities for pipeline time reduction can normally be found at the interface with suppliers logistics system.(2)Improving visibility of

38、 demandnThe idea that it could be possible to extend the customers order cycle may at first sight seem implausible.nNo, what is meant by extending the customers order cycle is that we should seek to obtain significantly earlier warnings of the customers requirement.nWhat we frequently find is that f

39、irst of all the demand penetration point is too far down the pipeline and that secondly, real demand is hidden from view and all we tend to see are orders.nBoth these points need further explanation; firstly the concept of the demand penetration point.Question 1 1Whats the demand penetration point?

40、The definition of the demand penetration point is that it occurs at that point in the logistics chain where real demand meets the plan. Upstream from this point everything is driven by a forecast and /or a plan. Downstream we can respond to customer demand.在物流链中需求与计划达在物流链中需求与计划达成一致的点。预测或计划成一致的点。预测或计

41、划驱动着需求渗透点上游的驱动着需求渗透点上游的活动，下游所做的就是对活动，下游所做的就是对客户需求做出反应。客户需求做出反应。Question 2 2nWhats the key concern of logistics management?nHow to achieve it?nA key concern of logistics management should be to seek to identify ways in which the demand penetration point can be pushed as far as possible upstream.nThis

42、 might be achieved by the use of information so that manufacturing and purchasing get to hear of what is happening in the marketplace faster than they currently do.nThe other route to achieving an upstream shift of the order penetration point is by postponing the final commitment of the product to i

43、ts final form. nFollowing figure illustrates a range of possible demand penetration points in different industrial and market contexts.DrivenByforecastDriven BydemandplantDistributioncentralwarehousedepots需求渗透点和战略库存Demand penetration point and strategic inventory In a sense the information we receiv

44、e, if we only have the order to rely on, is like the tip of an iceberg. the order cycle time (i.e. the required response time from order to delivery) may only be the visible tip.在某种意义上，如果我们在某种意义上，如果我们仅仅依赖手头的订单，则仅仅依赖手头的订单，则所获得的信息犹如冰山一所获得的信息犹如冰山一角。订货周期时间也可能角。订货周期时间也可能仅仅是信息冰山上可视的仅仅是信息冰山上可视的一角。一角。 The a

45、rea below the surface of the iceberg represents the ongoing consumption, demand or usage of the product which is hidden from the view of the supplier. It is only when an order is issued that demand becomes transparent.海平面以下的部分代表着海平面以下的部分代表着未来的消费、需求或者使未来的消费、需求或者使用产品的信息，而这些统用产品的信息，而这些统统是在供应商的视野之外统是在供应商的视野之外的。只有当订单发出之时的。只有当订单发出之时，需求才变得透明。，需求才变得透明。The information icebergOrder cycletimeAc