《项目管理》chapter 5 estimating project times and

1、2022-1-22编辑ppt1 管理学院 School of Management 佟瑞 Edward Tong， MPM，MBA编辑ppt2Where We Are Now编辑ppt3Estimating Projects Estimating The process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables. The task of balancing expectations of stakeholders and need for control while

2、the project is implemented. Types of Estimates Top-down (macro) estimates: analogy, group consensus, or mathematical relationships Bottom-up (micro) estimates: estimates of elements of the work breakdown structure编辑ppt4Why Estimating Time and Cost Are Important To support good decisions. To schedule

3、 work. To determine how long the project should take and its cost. To determine whether the project is worth doing. To develop cash flow needs. To determine how well the project is progressing. To develop time-phased budgets and establish the project baseline.编辑ppt5Factors Influencing the Quality of

4、 EstimatesQuality of EstimatesProjectDurationPeopleProject Structure and OrganizationPaddingEstimatesOrganizationCultureOther (Nonproject)FactorsPlanning Horizon编辑ppt6Estimating Guidelines for Times, Costs, and ResourcesHave people familiar with the tasks make the estimate.Use several people to make

5、 estimates.Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal level of resources.Use consistent time units in estimating task times.Treat each task as independent, dont aggregate.Dont make allowances for contingencies.Adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises to stakeholders.编

6、辑ppt7Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Estimating Top-Down Estimates Are usually are derived from someone who uses experience and/or information to determine the project duration and total cost. Are made by top managers who have little knowledge of the processes used to complete the project. Bottom-Up Appro

7、ach Can serve as a check on cost elements in the WBS by rolling up the work packages and associated cost accounts to major deliverables at the work package level.编辑ppt8Top-Down versus Bottom-Up EstimatingConditions for Preferring Top-Down or Bottom-up Time and Cost EstimatesCondition Macro Estimates

8、 Micro EstimatesStrategic decision making X Cost and time important XHigh uncertainty XInternal, small project XFixed-price contract XCustomer wants details XUnstable scope X编辑ppt9Estimating Projects: Preferred Approach Make rough top-down estimates. Develop the WBS/OBS. Make bottom-up estimates. De

9、velop schedules and budgets. Reconcile differences between top-down and bottom-up estimates编辑ppt10Top-Down Approaches for Estimating Project Times and Costs Consensus methods Ratio methods Apportion method Function point methods for software and system projects Learning curvesProject EstimateTimesCo

10、sts编辑ppt11Apportion Method of Allocating Project Costs Using the Work Breakdown Structure编辑ppt12Simplified Basic Function Point Count Process for a Prospective Project or Deliverable编辑ppt13Example: Function Point Count Method编辑ppt14Bottom-Up Approaches for Estimating Project Times and Costs Template

11、 methods Parametric procedures applied to specific tasks Range estimates for the WBS work packages Phase estimating: A hybrid编辑ppt15Support Cost Estimate Worksheet编辑ppt16Phase Estimating over Product Life Cycle编辑ppt17Top-Down and Bottom-Up Estimates编辑ppt18Level of Detail Level of detail is different

12、 for different levels of management. Level of detail in the WBS varies with the complexity of the project. Excessive detail is costly. Fosters a focus on departmental outcomes Creates unproductive paperwork Insufficient detail is costly. Lack of focus on goals Wasted effort on nonessential activitie

13、s编辑ppt19Types of Costs Direct Costs Costs that are clearly chargeable to a specific work package. Labor, materials, equipment, and other Direct (Project) Overhead Costs Costs incurred that are directly tied to an identifiable project deliverable or work package. Salary, rents, supplies, specialized

14、machinery General and Administrative Overhead Costs Organization costs indirectly linked to a specific package that are apportioned to the project编辑ppt20Contract Bid Summary Costs Direct costs $80,000 Direct overhead $20,000 Total direct costs $100,000 G&A overhead (20%) $20,000 Total costs $120

15、,000 Profit (20%) $24,000 Total bid $144,000 编辑ppt21Three Views of Cost编辑ppt22Refining Estimates Reasons for Adjusting Estimates Interaction costs are hidden in estimates. Normal conditions do not apply. Things go wrong on projects. Changes in project scope and plans. Adjusting Estimates Time and co

16、st estimates of specific activities are adjusted as the risks, resources, and situation particulars become more clearly defined.编辑ppt23Creating a Database for Estimating编辑ppt24Key TermsApportionment methodsBottom-up estimatesContingency fundsDelphi methodDirect costsFunction pointsLearning curvesOve

17、rhead costsPadding estimatesPhase estimatingRange estimatingRatio methodsTemplate methodTime and cost databases编辑ppt25WBS Figure编辑ppt26Learning Curves Unit Values编辑ppt27Learning Curves Cumulative Values2022-1-22编辑ppt281The process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing proje

18、ct deliverables is called c A. BudgetingB. PredictingC. EstimatingD. PlanningE. Guesstimating2022-1-22编辑ppt292In practice, estimating processes are frequently classified as aA. Top down/bottom upB. Rough/polishedC. Precise/order of magnitudeD. Draft/finalE. Both A and B are correct2022-1-22编辑ppt303A

19、 typical statement in actual practice is that estimates should have a probability of being met _ of the time. cA. 100%B. 98%C. 95%D. 90%E. 80%2022-1-22编辑ppt314A good starting point for developing time and cost estimates is aA. Past experienceB. Work packagesC. Task analysisD. Time and motion studies

20、E. Work breakdown structure2022-1-22编辑ppt325 Which of the following is not one of the factors that need to be considered to improve quality of estimates for project times and costs? dA. Planning horizonB. PeopleC. Padding estimatesD. ProfitE. Project structure2022-1-22编辑ppt336Ed is looking over the

21、actual results of projects and comparing them to what was estimated. He notices that projects that took six months or longer to complete were noticeably more off the estimates. Which of the following factors is he recognizing? bA. Padding estimatesB. Planning horizonC. Project structureD. PeopleE. O

22、rganization culture2022-1-22编辑ppt347Janet is forecasting how much money her department needs to support a new project. She estimates that two people and $25,000 in expenses will cover her needs. Because management typically insists on reducing forecasts by 20 percent, she increases her estimates to

23、allow for that reduction. Which of the following factors is illustrated in this situation? a A. Padding estimatesB. Planning horizonC. Project structureD. PeopleE. Organization culture2022-1-22编辑ppt358 Which of the following is a good condition for top-down estimating? dA. Cost and time importantB.

24、Fixed price contractC. Customer wants detailsD. Internal, small projectE. All of these are good conditions for top-down estimating2022-1-22编辑ppt369Which of the following is a good condition for bottom-up estimating? cA. Strategic decision makingB. Internal, small projectC. Fixed price contractD. Hig

25、h uncertaintyE. Both C and D are good conditions for bottom-up estimating2022-1-22编辑ppt3710Top-down estimates are most likely to occur during the _ phase. aA. ConceptB. PlanningC. ExecutionD. DeliveryE. All of these are equally likely2022-1-22编辑ppt3811_ estimates are most likely to use low cost, eff

26、icient methods. dA. ApportionB. RatioC. Top-downD. Bottom-upE. All of these are equally likely2022-1-22编辑ppt3912 Which of the following methods is not considered a top-down approach to estimating project time and cost? bA. RatioB. TemplateC. ApportionD. Function pointE. Learning curve2022-1-22编辑ppt4

27、013Jose is forecasting project time and cost for constructing a new building by multiplying the total square footage by a given dollar amount. Which of the following methods is he using? aA. RatioB. TemplateC. ApportionD. Function pointE. Learning curve2022-1-22编辑ppt4114Sean is forecasting the time

28、and cost of developing a customized software program by looking at the number of inputs, outputs, inquires, files, and interfaces. Which of the following methods is he using? dA. RatioB. TemplateC. ApportionD. Function pointE. Learning curve2022-1-22编辑ppt4215Laura is forecasting the time and cost of

29、 developing an intranet for a new customer. Her department has completed six such intranets for customers during the last two years. Although the proposed system is about the same size as the others she estimates that it will take about 10 percent less time and money. Which of the following methods

30、is she using? eA. RatioB. TemplateC. ApportionD. Function pointE. Learning curve2022-1-22编辑ppt4316 Learning curves are more likely to apply in situations where most of the costs are bA. MaterialsB. LaborC. OverheadD. Evenly spread over materials, labor, and overheadE. All of these are equally likely

31、 situations for learning curves2022-1-22编辑ppt4417Which of the following is not one of the bottom-up approaches to estimating project time and cost? A. Parametric procedures applied to specific tasksB. Estimates for the WBS work packages cC. Learning curveD. Template methodE. All of these are bottom-

32、up approaches2022-1-22编辑ppt4518The approach that begins with a top-down estimate for the project and then refines estimates as the project is implemented is known as _ method. dA. Function pointB. TemplateC. Learning curveD. Phase estimatingE. Apportion2022-1-22编辑ppt4619Which of the following would

33、be the best method for projects where the final product is not known and the uncertainty is very large? dA. Function pointB. TemplateC. Learning curveD. Phase estimatingE. Apportion2022-1-22编辑ppt4720The accuracy of top-down estimates will typically be in the range of cA. Minus 50% to plus 50%B. Minu

34、s 0% to plus 75%C. Minus 20% to plus 60%D. Minus 35% to plus 35%E. Minus 10% to plus 30%2022-1-22编辑ppt4821 The accuracy of bottom-up estimates will typically be in the range of eA. Minus 50% to plus 50%B. Minus 0% to plus 75%C. Minus 20% to plus 60%D. Minus 35% to plus 35%E. Minus 10% to plus 30%202

35、2-1-22编辑ppt4922 The cost to prepare bottom-up estimates will typically run how much more than the costs to prepare the top-down estimates? cA. About the sameB. About twice as muchC. About three times as muchD. About four times as muchE. About five times as much2022-1-22编辑ppt5023Typical kinds of cost

36、s found in a project include eA. Direct costsB. Project overhead costsC. General and administrative costsD. Only A and B are includedE. A, B, and C are all included2022-1-22编辑ppt5124Project costs are typically viewed from all of the following except: bA. ScheduledB. SunkC. ActualD. CommittedE. All o

37、f these are correct2022-1-22编辑ppt5225 Which of the following would be considered a direct project cost? eA. LaborB. MaterialsC. EquipmentD. Both A and B are direct costsE. A, B, and C are all considered direct costs2022-1-22编辑ppt5326Which of the following is not one of the recommended guidelines for

38、 developing useful work package estimates? A. Estimates should be made by those responsible for the work dB. Use several people to estimate the same workC. Estimates should be based on normal conditionsD. Estimates should include a normal level of contingencyE. Estimates should be independent of oth

39、er projects2022-1-22编辑ppt5427Companies like Boeing, Kodak, and IBM are using which of the following for improving the estimating process? dA. Adjusting estimates based on individual forecasting abilitiesB. Benchmarking using the experience of other companiesC. Using time and motion studiesD. Creatin

40、g historical databases of previous projectsE. All of these are correct2022-1-22编辑ppt5528Reasons why estimating time and cost are important include all of the following except: eA. To schedule workB. To determine how long the project should take and costC. To develop cash flow needsD. To determine ho

41、w well the project is progressingE. All of the above are valid reasons2022-1-22编辑ppt5629In a learning curve, the improvement ratio is applied to which of the following items? bA. Direct materialsB. Direct laborC. OverheadD. Both A and B are correctE. A, B, and C are all correct2022-1-22编辑ppt5730The

42、bottom-up approach for estimating times and costs that uses costs from past projects that were similar to the current project is known as: bA. Detailed WBS work package estimatesB. Template methodC. Function point methodD. Time-phased cost estimatesE. Phase estimating2022-1-22编辑ppt5831Which of the follow top-down