美国的竞选运动

1、仅供个人参考袁 Unit Ten袀 The campaign for election肇美国的竞选运动肄The winner in the November general election is almost certain to be either the Republicanor the Democratic nominee. A minor-party or independent candidate, such as George Wallace in 1968, John Anderson in 1980, or Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, can d

2、raw votes away from the major-party nominees but stands almost no chance of defeating them.芀11 月大选的获胜者几乎可以肯定不是共和党就是民主党提名的候选人。小党派或独立的候选人，如 1968 年的乔治华莱十、 1980 年的约翰安德森，或者 1992 年和 1996 年的罗斯佩罗等，可能会从大党的提名人那里拉走一此选票，但几乎没有人可能战胜他们。蚀A major-party nominee has the critical advantage of support from the party fai

3、thful. Earlierin the twentieth century, this support was so firm and steady that the victory of the stronger party's candidate was almost a certainty. Warren G. Harding accepted the 1920 Republican nomination at his Ohio home, stayed there throughout most of the campaign, and won a full vict

4、ory simply because most of the voters of his time were Republicans. Party loyalty has declined in recent decades, but more than two-thirds of the nation's voters still identify themselvesas Democrats or Republicans, and most of them support their party's presidential candidate. Even

5、Democrat George McGovern, who had the lowest level of party support among recent nominees, was backed in 1972 by nearly 60 percent of his party's voters.膈大党提名人具有得到党的忠实信徒支持这一关键的优势在20 世纪早期，这种支持是如此的坚固和稳定以至于强大党派候选人的胜利几乎是不容置疑的。沃伦G哈定在他的俄亥俄州的家中接受了1920 年共和党的提名，而且竞选期间他多数时间是呆在家里。他最终大获全胜仅仅是因为那个时期多数选民是共

6、和党成员。近几十年人们对党的忠诚有所减弱，但是这个国家三分之二以上的选民仍自我归属为民主党人或共和党人，并且他们当中的大多数会支持自己党派的总统候选人。甚至于民主党的乔治麦戈文， 他在近期的提名人中所得到的党派支持是最低的，也于1972 年时获得了他的党将近团的选民的支持。膃Presidential candidates act strategically. In deciding whether to pursue a course of action,they try to estimate its likely impact on the voters. During the 1992

7、campaign, a sign on the wallof Clinton's headquarters in Little Rock read, "The Economy, Stupid." The slogan was the idea of James Carville, Clinton's chief strategist, and was meant as a reminder to the candidate and the staff to keep the campaign focused on the nation&

8、;#39;s slow-moving economy, which ultimately was the issue that defeated Bush. As in 1980, when Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan during tough economic times, the voters were motivated largely by a desire for change.羃总统竞选人做事讲究战略。在决定是否遵循某一项行动方针时，他们要尽量估计一下该方针对选民可能具有的影响。在1992 年的选运动中，在小石城克林顿总部的墙上的一条不得用

9、于商业用途仅供个人参考标语说，“经济，愚蠢。 ”这一口号是克林顿的总战略家詹姆斯卡维尔的主意，其用意是想提醒候选人及总部人员始终把竞选的注意力集中在本国缓慢发展的经济上。 而这一点正是最终击败布什的问题。正如 1980 年在经济艰难时期吉米卡特败与罗纳德里根时那样，选民很大程度上是被他们想变革的欲望调动起来的。莀 Candidates try to project a strong leadership image. Whether voters accept this image, however, depends more on external factors than on a can

10、didate's personal characteristics.In 1991, after the Gulf War, Bush's approval rating reached 91 percent, the highest level recorded since polling began in the 1930s. A year later, with the nation's economy in trouble. Bush's approval rating dropped below 40 percent.

11、Bush tried to stir images of his strong leadership of the war, but voters remained concerned about the economy.羅候选人都想尽力突出表现一种强有力的领导者的形象。然而选民们是否接受这一形象则更取决于外在因素而不是候选人的个人特征。1991 年海湾战争以后，布什的支持率达到91%，这是自 20 世纪 30 年代开始民意测验以来的最高记录。一年以后，随着国家经济陷入困境，布什的支持率则下降到 40%以下。布什试图重振其战争期间强有力的领导者的形象，但是选民们始终一直关心经济。薅The ca

12、ndidates' strategies are shaped by many considerations, including theconstitutional provision that each state shall have electoral votes equal in number to its representation in Congress. Each state thus gets two electoral votes for its Senate representation and a varying number of electoral

13、 votes depending on its House representation. Altogether, there are 538 electoral votes (including three for the District of Columbia, even though it has no voting representatives in Congress). To win the presidency, a candidate must receive at least 270 votes, an electoral majority.蒃候选人的战略的形成要考虑到许多

14、因素，包括宪法的这一条款：每个州拥有的选票必须与其在国会中的代表人数相等。于是每个州便有两票选举参议院的代表并根据各州在众议院的代表数， 有不同数量的选票。选票总数为538 张（包括哥伦比亚特区的3 张选票，尽管在国会中它没有投票代表）要赢得总统席位， 候选人必须至少获得270 票，即选票的大多数。肁Candidates are particularly concerned with winning the states which have the largestpopulation, such as California (with 54 electoral votes), New Yor

15、k (33), Texas (32), Florida (25), Pennsylvania (23), Illinois (22), and Ohio (21). Victory in the eleven largest slates alone would provide an electoral majority, and presidential candidates therefore spend most of their time campaigning in those states. Clinton received only 43 percent of the popul

16、ar vote in 1992, compared with Bush's 38 percent and Perot's 19 percent; but Clinton won in states that gave him an overwhelming 370 electoral votes, compared with 168 for Bush and none for Perot.候选人特别关注人口最多的几个州的州选举中获胜，例如，加利福尼亚州（有54 张选票），纽约州（ 33 张），德克萨斯州（ 32 张），佛罗里达州（ 25 张），宾夕法尼亚州（ 2

17、3 张），伊利诺斯州 （ 22 张）和俄亥俄州 （ 21 张）。仅在这 11 个最大的州获胜就可获得选举的多数，因此，总统候选人花大量的时间在这些州进行竞选活动。在1992 年，克林顿仅获得民众选票的 43%，相比之下，布什是38%，佩罗是 19%；但是克林顿在州选举中获胜。这些州却给不得用于商业用途仅供个人参考了他压倒多数的370 张选票，相比之下布什是168 张，佩罗则一张也没有。不得用于商业用途仅供个人参考仅供个人用于学习、研究；不得用于商业用途。For personal use only in study and research; not for commercial use.Nur f ü r den pers?nlichen fü r Studien, Forschung, zu kommerziellen Zwecken verwendet werden.Pour l 'é tude et la recherche uniquementà des fins personnelles; pasà des fins commerciales. , .以下无正文不得用于商业用途仅供个人参考仅供个人用于学习、研究；不得用于商业用途。For personal use on