申万海外研究报告库申万tmt baba us alibaba group

1、Software & Services | Company ResearchBringingto the World05 January 2015OutperformBigger data, better platform; initiated withOutperformAlibaba Group (BABA:US)Initiation of CoverageMarket Data: Jan, 02Final summary and valuationFY2013FY2014FY2015EFY2016EFY2016EClosing Price (US$)103.60115.904,7

2、26.8182.81/120.00255.382,4656.20Revenue (Rmbm) YoY (%)Net income (Rmbm) YoY (%)EPS (Rmb)Diluted EPS (Rmb) ROE (%)Debt/asset (%) Dividend Yield (%) PE (x)PB (x)EV/Ebitda (x)34,517 13,869 6.055.8118.752.72 106.243,096.53133.8052,50452.1127,61099.0812.6911.84125.5643.76 50.6052.2258.9274,30741.5332,879

3、19.0814.6913.4967.6436.82 43.7212.6250.7997,92831.7945,10937.2020.1618.5024.7525.06 31.879.8638.96123,67726.2956,66425.6225.3223.2427.3326.51 25.377.8029.91Price Target (US$)Nasdaq52week High/Low (US$)Market Cap (US$bn)Shares Outstanding (m)Exchange Rate (RmbUS$)Price Performance Chart:80%70%60%50%4

4、0%30%20%10%0%10%Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each years EPS.Investment Highlights:s ecommerce power

5、house. Founded in 1999, A was launched as a businesstobusiness (B2B) portal positioned to connects manufacturing firmsBABA US EquityNasdaq Indexto global buyers. Today, the ecommerce giant operates numerous web portals thatSource: Bloombergextend from B2B to consumertoconsumer (C2C) and businesstoco

6、nsumer (B2C)ms (totalling 8.5m active sellers and 307m active buyers in 3Q14), as well as eAnalystpayment and cloud computing services. Given its dominant position, Alibaba is aAshley Shengdirect beneficiary of the boo enjoy robust growth (31.4% competition rising and an alonline retail industry, wh

7、ich we expect toA0230512080002 BBS394revenue Cagr from FY3/1517E). However, with y high base, we expect Alibabas share of industryshengzw(8621)23297818×7389gross merchandise value (GMV) to drop from 78.1% in 2013 to 72.7% in FY3/17E.embraces mobile ecommerce. With mobile internet uptake acceler

8、ating alongside developments in mobile payment, mobile ecommerce has become a secureand convenient method of shop monthly active users (MAUs). Alibaba leads the sector, with 217ming for 86.2% ofs total mobile GMV during3Q14. We expect Alibabas mobile GMV as a portion of itsretail GMV to risefrom 35.

9、8% in FY2Q15 to c.50% by FY3/17E. The gap between PC and mobile monetisation will narrow from 2ppt in 2014 to 1ppt in FY3/17E.Small but strong. Ant Final represents Alibabas ambitions to integrate variousfinal services under its umbrella. Its six major businesses (Alipay, Alipay Wallet,The company d

10、oes not hold any equities orderivatives of the listed companyYue Bao, Zhao Cai Bao, Micro Credit and MYbank), are focused on small and mediummentioned in this report (“target”), but thenwe shall provide final advisory servicessized enterprises (SMEs) as well as individuals. We forecast Ant Finalssub

11、ject to the relevant laws andconsolidated net profit to reach Rmb7.6bn in FY3/15E (+62.1% YoY), Rmb10.5bn in FY3/16E (+37.9% YoY) and Rmb12.9bn in FY3/17E (+23.6% YoY).regulations. Any affiliates of the companymay hold equities of the target, which mayexceed 1 percent of issued shares subjectto the

12、relevant laws and regulations. TheInitiate with an Outperform. We forecast revenue to see a 32.1% Cagr with net profit posting a 27.1% Cagr from FY3/1517E. Operating margin is expected to contract from 47.5% in FY3/14 to 38.0% in FY3/15E as R&D spend and SG&A increase. Our US$115.9 target is

13、 derived from valuing Alibaba Group at US$109.3 percompany may also provide investmentbanking services to the target. TheCompany fulfills its duty of disclosure withinits sphere of knowledge. Thes maycontact compliance forrelevant disclosure materials or log intocom under disclosureshare and its 37.

14、5% equity holding in Ant Final at US$6.6 per share. While we likecolumn for further information. Thesthe firm as one ofs fundamentally sound internet giants, the strong share priceshall have a comp ensive understandingn通d过 仅la提im供e自r 然up人omnontihteorInner(monitorInner)使用1of the disperformance post I

15、PO and high valuation (43.7x FY3/15E, 31.9x FY3/16E PE) limit upside potential to 11.9%. As such, we initiate coverage with an Outperform.last page.2014/9/192014/9/272014/10/52014/10/132014/10/212014/10/292014/11/62014/11/142014/11/222014/11/302014/12/82014/12/162014/12/242015/1/1Software & Serv

16、ices | Company Research05 January 2015投资要点：强大电商系统。阿里拥有最大的电商零售平台（截止三季度末，平台拥有850 万活跃买家、2.79 亿活跃买家），大数据支持云平台以及支付平台。同时，阿里积极投入投资并购活动已加强用户体验、扩大用户基数、丰富平台所提供的/服务等。，这些并购、投资标的和阿里业务平台的整合需要一定时间，短期能对公司业务有较强的协同效应。维持领先市场份额。阿里整体零售电商市场（B2C+C2C）份额高达 80%；将极大受益于国内整体电商的发展。由于较高的规模基数，未来增速（相比体量较小的如京东；激进的垂直平台，如唯品会等）将有所放缓；我们

17、测算其整体零售电商市场份额将在 2017 年下降至 72.7%；尽管如此，阿里的市场份额仍将大幅领先对手。我们预计其国内零售市场 GMV 未来三来复合增速 32.5%、零售市场收入三年复合增速35.4%。移动电商兴起。随着移动互联普及（大屏智能机、上网普及）、移动支付为便捷和安全，移动电商高速发展。受益于先发优势和庞大的用户规模（三季度MAU 达到 2.17 亿），三季度阿里以 83.6%的市场份额稳居第一。我们预计，移动电商 GMV 占比将由 FY2Q15 的 35.8%上升至 FC3/17E 的 50%；同时，移动端货币化能力将得以提升，预计移动端和 PC 端货币化率差距将由 2014 年

18、 2ppt 缩减至1ppt。蚂蚁金服，微小而巨大。蚂蚁金融作为阿里系统必不可少的一部分，了支付宝、支付宝钱包、小贷金融等业务。首次覆盖给予增持评级。预计 FY3/15-17E 收入复合增速 32.1%、调整后利润复合增速 27.1%。受费用等投入加大影响，经润率将因此受压。给予目标价 115.9美金，估值主要来自两部分：109.3 美金来自于基于 FCFF 模型的阿里集团估值、6.6 美金来自于蚂蚁金融上市后，阿里集团将享有其 37.5%的股权。我们看好阿里集团作为互联网电商巨头且基本面前估值约 43.7x FY3/15E、31.9x FY3/16E 11.9%空间，给予增持评级。，股价在 I

19、PO 之后表现强劲，目PE，估值相对较高。目标价对应现价有通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用2Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 1Software & Services | Company Research05 January 2015Table of contentsonline retail market takes off3Key drivers and Alibabas opportunities3Market growth6Competitive la

20、ndscape7C2C: mature segment with healthy competition7B2C: rapid growth with intense competition9Alibabas ecosystem11Marketing affiliates12Logistics networks13Ant Final15Ali Cloud22Leading monetisation m.23Mobile monetisation on the move25Final forecasts27Strong revenue outlook27Margin to remain stro

21、ng29Strong liquidity and rich cash position30Valuation30Major investments by Alibaba32Company profile and shaolder structure32Core business32Ownership structure34VIE structure34Alibaba Partnership35Appendix37通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用3Please refer to the last page for important disclosure

22、sPage 2Software & Services | Company Research05 January 2015online retail market takes offKey drivers and Alibabas opportunitiesThe online retail consumer market is typically driven by increasingconsumption and rising online shoppenetration. In our view,sonline retail market will continue to gen

23、erate opportunities as ecommerce develops.Consumption to accelerate. While still lagging developed countries,consumption is becoa key driver ofs economy,ing for, it remains35.8% of GDP in 2013. While GDP growth is moderatinghigh and households are seeing dispensable incomes rise. According toEuromon

24、itor International forecasts, domestic consumption is expected to grow at a Cagr of 8.3% over 201316, compared with a GDP Cagr of 7.0% over the same period.Fig 1:real consumption 201316EFig 2:s relatively low consumption/GDP ratio3067.1%63.7%59.5%2554.4%2035.8%151050Consumption as % of GDP compariso

25、ncomsumption (Rmbtn)Source:IC, SWS ResearchSource: Euromonitor International, SWS ResearchOnlinepenetration to encompass more categories. Analysis of theconsumption breakdownshows that housing, food & nonalcoholicbeverages, clothing & footwear and electronics & home appliances are the ma

26、jor spending segments.Fig 3: Breakdown of consumptionClothing andfootwear, 8.5%Electronics andhome appliances, 3.7%Householdgoods and services, 4.4%Recreation andculture, 2.1%Others , 15.0%Education, 2.1%Jewellery and accessories, 3.6%Hotels and catering, 3.7%Health goods and medical services, 6.6%T

27、ransport, 7.4%Food and nonalcoholic beverages, 26.1%Housing, 16.8%通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用4Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 320132014E2015E2016EUSUKJapanGermanySoftware & Services | Company Research05 January 2015Source: Euromonitor International, SWS Rese

28、archExcept for housing, most of the highvalue segments are among the most frequently purchased products online, as they are commoditised. Segments such as food & beverages still have lower online penetration, but with improving wa ouse and logistics facilities we expect to see online retail pene

29、tration extend to an increasing number of categories.Fig 4: Online retail penetration of different productsFig 5: Most frequent online purchases35%Education, recreation & culture18 0%30%Food & healthcare22.4%25%Home appliances22.7%20%Books & CDs25.7%Cosmetics & beauty products30.6%15

30、%Suitcase & bags32.7%10%Prepaid cards & gift cards34 9%5%Computers, handsets &43.3%0%ApparelFood and beverage PharmaceuticalproductsAverageGroceries45.1%75.6%Clothing and footwear201120122013Source: iResearch, SWS ResearchSource:IC, SWS ResearchRoom to grow.In 2013, there were 302monline

31、 shoppers in,representing 48.86% penetration of the nations 618m netizens vs over80% in developed markets. We projects total online shopperpopulation to reach 790m by 16E, with penetration climbing to 58%.Fig 6:internet populationFig 7:has a relatively lower internet penetration900800700600500400300

32、2001000100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Internet user population(m)Interrnet users as % of total populationSource:IC, SWS ResearchSource:IC, IDDC, SWS ResearchFig 8:s total number of online shoppersFig 9:s relatively lower online shopper penetration通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用5Please refer

33、to the last page for important disclosuresPage 42008200920102011201220132014E2015E2016EGermanyUKUSJapanSoftware & Services | Company Research05 January 2015100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%50045040035030025020015010050070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Online shoppers(m)Penetration rate (%)Online shoppers

34、as % of total internet populationSource:IC, SWS ResearchSource:IC, IDDC, SWS ResearchMobile penetration is rising. Mobile penetration stood at just 10% (as percentage of total GMV) in 2013. With smartphone and mobile internet penetration rising (especially in lowertier cities with limited access to

35、fixed broadband, see Figure 15), accelerating mobile payment uptake and increasing public acceptance of mobile shop , mobile ecommerce GMVis expected tiver a 67.6% Cagr from 201417E with penetrationto 25% by 2017E. PC GMV is expected to post a 25.6% Cagr from 201417E.Fig 10: Mobile GMVFig 11: Mobile

36、 GMV contribution on the rise100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%75.9%80.1%83.6%86.9%90 9%99Mobile GMV (Rmbbn)YoY (%)Mobile GMV (%)PC GMV (%)Source: iResearch, SWS ResearchSource: iResearch, SWS ResearchGeographicalexpansion.s offli

37、ne retail markets are quitefragmented, presenting a significant opportufor ecommerce. The lack of convenient internet access combined with poor logistics infrastructurehas slowed the development of ecommerce in rural areas. With mobile internet adoption rising and logistics infrastructure improving,

38、 we expect e commerce to see increasing penetration of lowertier cities.Fig 12: Offline retail infrastructure comparisonFig 13: Underdeveloped lower tier cities通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用6Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 5200820112009201220102013201120122014E2013

39、2015E2014E2016E2015E2016E2017E20112012Germany2013UK2014E2015EUS2016EJapan2017E8 5%5.2%Software & Services | Company Research05 January 201.30.6Total retail sales in 2012(Rmbbn)852440.50%12,50659.50%Offline retail infrasture (Retail space per capita in square metres in 2013)Source: Eur

40、omonitor International, SWS ResearchSource: National Bureau of Statistics of, 2013Fig 14: Rural versus urban online shoppersFig 15: Mobile internet is more accessible in rural areas90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%30060%48.9%55.2%25050%20040%31.0%15030%29.0%10020%5010%00%2012Rural online shoppers (m)201

41、3Urban online shoppers (m)PCLaptopMobile phoneTabletRual penetrationUrban penetrationRural (%)Urban (%)Source:IC, SWS ResearchSource:IC, SWS ResearchMarket growthWe expects online retail penetration to surpass that of the US in 2016(see Figure 19), at 14.5% of total retail consumption, given its low

42、 base (due to a fragmented offline infrastructure, low consumption, low penetration ofecommerce and high price sensitivity).We forecastonline retail revenue to increase from Rmb1,892bn in2013 to Rmb5,634bn in 2017E, representing a 31.4% Cagr. Online retail penetration as a percentage of total consum

43、ption is expected to reach 15.7%in 2017E vs 8.0% in 2013. online retail business m, C2C and B2C are the most accepteds. We expect B2C to surpass C2C tofor60.5% of total online retail market share.Fig 18:s online retail market GMVFig 19: .reaching 15.7% of total retail consumption通过 仅提供自然人monitorInne

44、r(monitorInner)使用7Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 6U.S.UKJapanGermanyFirst andOthersecond%regions%tiercitiesPopulation as of end 2012 (m)25518 80%1,09981 20%Software & Services | Company Research05 January 201518.0%16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6,00080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

45、0%16.3%5,00015.7%4,0003,0006.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%2,0006.4%1,0002.9%0online retail GMV (Rmbbn)YoY (%)USSource: iResearch, SWS ResearchSource: iResearch, SWS ResearchCompetitive landscapeC2C: mature segment with healthy competitions online retail market stared with the implementation of the C2C m, when Each

46、Net was founded in 1999. As a pioneer in a large untappedmarket, EachNet soon became a dominant force ins C2C market. In2002, eBay invested US$30m in EachNet for a 33% stake and acquired theremaining 67% for US$150m in June 2003. The company was then renamed to eBay EachNet. After the acquisition, t

47、he platform began charging listingand commission fees to buyers, similar to eBays US business m.However, eBay EachNets dominant position didnt last for long. In 2003Alibaba launchedmarketplace to provideservices, which. To enhanceturned out to be quite attractive to smallscale vendorsits user experi

48、ence and facilitate online payments, Alibaba later launched its Alipay solution and Ali Wangwang for communication between buyers andsellers. In 2006, eBay sold its interest in EachNet to TOM Online. At thispoint, Alibabas market.marketplace was the dominant players C2CFig 20:s C2C market developmen

49、t history2,5002003:launched asmarketplace platform300%2014: JD.comtook over Paipai from Tencent2006: eBay sold 51% of interests in EachNet to250%2,0001999: EachNetfounded;Tom and steppteddown2001: launched feepaidfrommarketservice to buyers200%1,5002006: Tencent launched2002: eBay acuiqred 33% inter

50、est inPaipai platform150%EachNet2003: another 67%1,000100%50050%00%C2C GMV (Rmbbn)YoY (%)Source: iResearch, SWS Research通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用8Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 720102011200120122002201320032014E20042015E20052016E20062017E200720082009201020102

51、01120112012201220132014E20132015E2014E2016E2015E2017E2016E2017ESoftware & Services | Company Research05 January 2015Fig 21: B2C GMV to surpass C2C GMV in 2015EFig 22: C2C growth set to slow2,50050%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%14%25%35%40%2,00047%54%58%61%1,5001,00050002010201120122013 2014E2015E 2016E 2017EC2C GMV (%)B2C GMV (%)C2C GMV (Rmbbn)YoY (%)Source: iResearch, SWS Resear