美股美国多产业由得出的5个主要要点

1、COREEquity Research8 August 2019U.S. Multi-IndustryGlobal Industrial Learnings from Earnings (#7): 5 Main TakeawaysWe summarize our takeaways on global industrial earnings, now that all US MI companies have reported their June Q. We provide updated thoughts / estimates on FLOW (EW), GE (OW), GTES (E

2、W), and RBC (EW).We are in an industrial recession In Q418, 100% of our companies under coverage enjoyed organic sales growth. In Q119, 4 companies saw organic sales declines, and in Q219, almost one third (8 companies) slipped into a decline. Average MI organic sales growth reached 2% in Q2, but af

3、ter stripping out price tailwinds, volume growth was0%. What is concerning is that when we look at our forecasts (which have typically been lower than the Street / Co guidance for organic sales, since our initiation), they embed only 8 companies having organic declines in the 2H19 - this looks too o

4、ptimistic now, given the recent trade news, and some of the corporate commentary in recent days regarding how the demand slowdown is spreading beyond Auto and Electronics.Which looks set to become quite deep, for several names: Amidst what is still a positive GDP growth backdrop, it is a little conc

5、erning that three of our Short Cycle companies (FLOW, GDI, GTES - all EW) may undergo 10% organic sales declines in Q3. We have entered the 4th Short Cycle downturn in a decade.Yellow flags for Long Cycle and Short Cycle Consumer: While Short Cycle Industrial businesses have been slowing for 18 mont

6、hs, and now are in a downturn, Long Cycle organic sales growth decelerated to +6-7% in Q2, after +9-10% growth for the preceding three quarters, and LC comps are 200-300bps tougher in the 2H19. Amidst fairly robust consumer spending in the US, it has been interesting to see a 2nd consecutive Q of ve

7、ry underwhelming organic growth (0-1%) for Short Cycle consumer businesses within our coverage.Decremental margins are severe: We highlighted, in the Preview (Q2 Preview: Lower revenue visibility; July 9, 2019), our skepticism of industrial management teams claims that their businesses were less cyc

8、lical now, and the severity of Q2 decremental margins in most cases have been eye-watering. Across the 15 reporting segments and/ or total companies who saw organic sales declines in Q2, decremental operating margins reached an average of 45% (against average sector gross margins of 38%). SWK (Secur

9、ity), ROP (PT) and KMT saw three of the lowest (0% *Green = AcceleratedGreen = ExpandedGreen = AcceleratedGreen = AcceleratedGreen = RaisedGreen = YesGreen = BeatGreen = BeatGreen = BeatRed = Underperf. S&P*Red 0% *Red = SlowedRed = CompressedRed = SlowedRed = SlowedRed = LoweredRed = NoRed = Missed

10、Red = MissedRed = Missed*During Earnings Period*During Earnings PeriodBlank = FlatBlank = N/ABlank = NABlank = Held / InitiatedBlank = In-lineBlank = In-lineBlank = In-line% Green8%12%15%38%46%31%43%42%32%48%76%Barclays | U.S. Multi-IndustrySector Performance: Organic GrowthFIGURE 3Sector Organic Sa

11、les Growth (including estimates for those companies who have reported June Q earnings, and where we are not Restricted)Source: Company Data, Barclays Research8 August 20196Organic Sales Growth2016201620162016201720172017201720182018201820182019201920192019CompanyTickerCQ12016CQ22016CQ32016CQ42016CQ1

12、2017CQ22017CQ32017CQ42017CQ12018CQ22018CQ32018CQ42018CQ12019CQ22019CQ32019CQ42019AllegionALLE3.6%8.9%5.0%5.2%8.0%6.2%2.7%6.1%3.3%5.2%8.5%6.7%5.8%3.0%3.5%5.3%ColfaxCFX-0.3%-5.6%-6.8%-9.3%-3.3%0.7%6.0%-3.2%4.9%-0.7%0.6%10.6%1.6%3.6%DanaherDHR1.8%3.2%3.2%3.1%2.5%2.0%3.0%5.5%5.5%6.0%6.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Dove

13、rDOV-7.4%-6.5%-7.0%-2.0%1.0%4.6%5.2%5.0%1.7%3.5%3.1%6.2%8.3%2.9%3.1%1.8%EmersonEMR-5.0%-5.0%-5.0%-3.0%-0.1%3.9%2.7%7.3%7.5%8.0%8.0%4.5%4.0%2.0%2.4%2.3%EatonETN-6.0%-4.0%-3.0%-3.0%2.0%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.0%7.0%6.0%7.0%4.0%2.5%1.8%1.9%SPX FlowFLOW-9.2%-11.9%-19.6%-16.0%-12.0%-4.7%3.4%2.2%2.1%6.2%9.8%5.1%6.0

14、%-2.7%-9.0%-7.3%FortiveFTV-1.5%-0.5%2.7%3.5%4.9%5.4%4.8%2.3%1.2%4.6%2.6%7.4%3.7%2.0%2.4%2.5%Gardner DenverGDI-20.3%-8.8%-10.3%11.2%12.0%27.3%38.2%10.8%20.2%8.7%4.5%7.4%1.2%-4.7%-10.8%-5.7%GatesGTES-3.4%2.9%0.7%11.2%7.3%8.3%11.4%9.1%6.2%6.7%7.2%3.5%-2.1%-4.8%-10.4%-8.8%General ElectricGE-1.0%-1.0%1.0

15、%4.0%7.0%2.0%-1.0%-6.0%-4.0%-6.0%1.0%8.0%5.0%7.0%5.2%2.0%HD SupplyHDS7.8%3.6%2.8%3.1%3.4%5.3%7.4%9.0%9.9%10.2%9.4%7.4%5.8%HoneywellHON-0.4%-2.4%-3.5%-1.0%2.0%3.0%5.0%6.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%6.0%8.0%5.0%3.5%3.7%Ingersoll-RandIR2.1%3.4%2.4%2.0%4.0%6.7%2.1%5.7%8.4%8.9%10.0%8.0%8.1%4.0%4.6%4.0%Johnson ControlsJ

16、CI1.3%1.8%1.3%2.4%3.2%0.8%6.1%6.2%6.2%6.3%5.5%4.1%3.0%KennamKMT-8.0%-9.0%-3.0%0.0%7.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%9.0%11.0%10.0%6.0%2.0%-3.0%-5.7%-3.7%LennoxLII5.8%3.1%5.7%7.4%10.7%8.4%3.8%-1.5%4.5%8.3%6.2%9.1%6.8%-0.4%4.1%4.9%MMMMMM-0.8%-0.2%-0.8%1.6%4.6%3.5%6.6%6.0%2.8%5.6%1.3%3.0%-1.1%-0.9%0.0%0.6%nVentNVT5.5

17、%0.1%-2.1%-10.2%-3.6%-4.7%-2.7%3.7%3.1%3.1%5.5%6.3%2.6%1.4%0.0%2.0%Parker HannifinPH-9.4%-5.3%-4.6%-0.5%5.7%6.0%7.4%9.5%8.4%8.7%5.7%5.7%1.8%-1.9%PentairPNR4.3%0.3%-1.5%-7.3%3.1%-2.0%0.1%2.3%4.2%2.9%6.4%5.7%-4.3%1.4%-2.1%0.3%Regal BeloitRBC-12.9%-9.8%-7.1%-0.7%0.7%4.8%5.2%6.9%5.8%5.7%5.2%5.2%-1.0%-2.

18、2%-4.8%-5.0%Rockwell AutomationROK-3.3%-4.8%-4.0%3.8%6.8%8.2%5.6%5.3%3.5%5.7%7.3%5.7%3.6%0.5%-1.8%-2.6%Roper TechROP-3.2%-2.0%1.6%2.0%5.0%6.0%5.0%5.0%6.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%6.0%2.0%1.4%4.4%RexnordRXN-3.0%-1.0%-2.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%2.0%6.0%6.0%4.0%9.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%1.1%2.1%StanleySWK4.9%4.3%3.2%3.6%6.3%9.0%9.5%9.

19、5%3.7%7.0%4.2%5.5%4.8%3.1%3.7%4.3%United TechnologiesUTX2.0%1.0%5.0%0.0%2.8%2.4%4.8%4.5%5.2%6.0%8.1%11.0%7.9%5.8%4.4%3.3%US Multi Average-2.2%-1.8%-1.8%0.2%3.3%4.8%5.8%5.2%5.2%5.8%6.2%6.6%3.9%1.5%0.0%0.7%US Multi Median-1.3%-1.0%-1.8%1.3%3.4%4.8%4.8%5.5%5.0%6.0%6.4%6.2%4.0%2.0%1.8%2.0%Barclays | U.S. Multi-IndustryIndividual Company Takeaways: FLOWFollowing Q2 Earnings, we lower our EPS estimates (largely to account for P&E being reported as discontinued operations) and our Price Target moves to $36.Q2 results were mixed