美股石油与天然气行业勘探产品资本支出的削减计入了哪些因素

1、COREEquity Research7 February 2019E&P Topic Du JourMake or Break Time for E&Ps; Which Capex Cuts Are Priced in? A Fundamental LookWhats On Our Minds: We have Q4 earnings, 2019 outlooks, and positive feedback loops on our minds. Capital discipline continues to dominate the E&P narrative a

2、nd is a key theme for the Q4 earnings season wherein companies will initiate or update 2019 prodn/capex guidance. Capex budget reductions are the proxy for discipline and WPXs 2019 updated outlook is a good case study since it is a high-quality name with a more balanced debate between prodn growth v

3、s. FCF. On Monday WPX cut 2019 capex by 23% (midpt) to a level that gets closer to within CF at $50 WTI while growing prodn by over 20% yoy, whereas the prior guide would have resulted in a wide outspend but with more prodn momentum. WPXs 5% outperformance vs. the XOP since the capex update sends a

4、strong positive feedback loop to investors and E&Ps. In the near-term, the questions are what other E&Ps will reduce 2019 capex vs. prior expectations and is it already priced in? and are capex reductions enough to convince investors that E&P capital discipline will translate to better s

5、ector performance?.What We Did: See the next paragraph for the list of E&Ps that we anticipate will reduce 2019 capex. To determine if the capex cuts are priced in we looked at YTD stock price performance (especially given outperformance by perceived lower quality names), CF sensitivity to oil p

6、rices (CFO and EBITDAX margins), short interest, and % oil hedged.INDUSTRY UPDATENorth America Oil & Gas: E&PPOSITIVEUnchangedFor a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2.North America Oil & Gas: E&P Jeanine WaiJeanine.W

7、a BCI, USWilliam Thompsonwilliam.s.thompson BCI, USEli Bauman, CFAeli.bauman BCI, USKane Chenkane.chen BCI, USWhats the? For Large Caps we anticipate that APA, DVN, and NBL willreduce 2019 capex vs. prior guidance, and XEC/EOG capex will be meaningfully lower than Street Consensus (although more in

8、line with buy side expectations; see within for a sentiment check-in). YTD stock outperformance for APA, DVN, NBL, and XEC, the recent crude rally, and the perceived beta rally make it difficult to answer if the cuts are already priced in. Based on fundamental CF sensitivity, APA should have sharply

9、 outperformed in January, as wells as DVN/XEC but to a lesser extent. This suggests that little is priced in for capex cuts. However for better or for worse, positioning now has an outsized affect on stock performance and our sense is that the dedicated energycommuis already expecting 2019 capex cut

10、s from these names, which providesmeaningful offset. For SMID Caps, CDEV has already capitulated from adding rigs and SM already guided capex down yoy. Seeing sticky and material 2019 capex reductions to increase FCF yield at $50 WTI and reasonable prodn declines are clear positives for the E&P

11、sector, but is this enough to attract new money? Since most E&Ps have triangulated around $50 WTI as the planning deck and are keen on capital discipline, earnings call commentary on late 2019 activity additions and cost assumptions could make or break E&P sentiment as recent commentary on 2

12、019 well cost deflation (EOG, CLR, COP, WPX, SM) could prove too aggressive (resulting in upward capex revisions) and/or facilitate reinvestment of CF to the drill-bit instead of into return of capital.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies co

13、vered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that thefirm may have aof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTAN

14、T DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 23.获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群。Barclays | E&P Topic Du JourSummary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)Apache Corporation (APA) Cimarex Energy (XEC) Conch

15、o Resources Inc. (CXO)Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL)Parsley Energy (PE)UW EW OW EW OW OW UWOWUW EW OW EW OW OW UWOW31.8574.77117.2726.7896.1815.9122.3718.3729.0081.00162.0033.00138.0023.0027.0038.0029.0081.00162.0031.0

16、0138.0023.0027.0034.00-6-111.217.264.942.145.390.650.891.521.217.374.952.145.480.670.921.56- 20- 2333-0.715.765.021.162.91-0.070.062.08-0.735.694.931.212.92-0.100.052.09-3-1-240-43-170Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimate

17、s are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative7

18、February 20192CompanyRatingPricePrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E)Old New 06-Feb-19OldNew%Chg Old New %ChgOldNew %ChgNorth America Oil & Gas: E&PPos PosBarclays | E&P Topic Du JourCompany-specific ThoughtsCapex Budget Reductions Are the Near-term Proxy for Capital Discipline Capital disc

19、ipline continues to dominate the E&P narrative and is a key theme for the Q4 earnings season wherein companies will initiate or update 2019 prodn/capex guidance. Capex budget reductions are the near-term proxy for discipline and WPXs 2019 updated outlook is a good case study since it is a high-q

20、uality name with a more balanced debate between prodn growth vs. FCF. On Monday WPX cut 2019 capex by 23% (midpt) to a levelthat gets closer to within CF at $50 WTI while growing prodn by over 20% yoy, whereas the prior guide would have resulted in a wide outspend but with more prodn momentum. WPXs

21、5% outperformance vs. the XOP since the release sends a strong positive feedback loop to investors and E&Ps. See our WPX Energy: Threading the Needle and WPX: Forcing Itself into the Conversation with its Larger Cap Peers (2/4/2018) for details.For Large Caps we anticipate that APA, DVN, and NBL

22、 will reduce 2019 capex vs. prior guidance, and XEC/EOG capex will be meaningfully lower than Street Consensus (although more in line with buy side expectations; see within for our sentiment check-in). For SMID Caps, CDEV has already capitulated from adding rigs and SM already guided capex down yoy.

23、While the near-term focus is on 2019 production/capex with Q418 earnings upon us, we think 2020 oil production is primed to become a larger part of the conversation. If E&Psremain disciplined in 2019 and choose to continue that min 2020, 2020 oil productioncould be lower than expected. At this p

24、oint, it may evolve to a whats good for the macro is bad for the micro situation. However, if attractive FCF yield accompanies lower oil production, E&Ps are more likely to get a pass on missing estimates than previously.APA. During Q318 earnings, APA provided 2019 production/capex guidance assu

25、ming commodity prices in-line with current strip, which at that time was $65 WTI. Mgmt. forecasted upstream capital investment of $3.0bn, adjusted production to the high end of the 410-440 MBOE/d guidance range (15% growth in the US and 10% growth overall), positive free cash flow including the divi

26、dend, and continued return of capital to shareholders.Given mgmt.s commitment to capital discipline and at least cash flow neutrality in 2019, we anticipate that APA will meaningfully lower 2019 capex in order to be within cash flow at $50 WTI, which is positive from a messaging perspective. We thin

27、k a steep capex reduction is broadly expected by investors since the original guidance was aligned with$65 WTI. Thus, it likely is a matter of how much capex does APA need to eliminate and from where, and what is the corresponding impact on production in both 2019 and in 2020.We forecast $2.2bn of u

28、pstream capex in 2019 assuming 3% yoy cost inflation on anapples-to-apples basis vs. APAs current $3.0bn estimate. We m$1,600mm of UScapex and $605mm of international capex, which results in a 2019 outspend of $175mm at $50 WTI/$58 Brent (excluding leasehold spend). If there is downside risk to our

29、capex estimate, our guess is that it is on the international side (North Sea, Egypt). Our 2019 adjusted total production of 410 MBOE/d is 4% below the midpoint of the current guidance range of 410-440 MBOE/d. Our 2020 unadjusted total production estimate is 471 or 13% below Street Consensus. See Fig

30、. 8 for Barclays vs. Street Consensus estimates.DVN. Alongside Q318 earnings DVN released a preliminary 2019 capex budget of $2.4- 2.7bn and 15-19% oil growth for the retained US assets, which positions DVN for FCF generation. Also, at $65 WTI, $3.00 Henry Hub and then current WCS strip pricing, mgm

31、t. forecasts a cumulative $6-8bn in “excess cash inflow” (defined as FCF + divestiture proceeds) in 2017-2020, including $5bn of excess cash inflow by YE18.37 February 2019Barclays | E&P Topic Du JourGiven mgmt.s commitment to generating FCF at a more moderate price deck of $50 WTI, we anticipat

32、e that DVN will reduce the 2019 capex range through capex cuts in Canada and the STACK, which we think is in line with broader investor expectations. With the strength of the Delaware program and higher margin operations in the Rockies and Eagle Ford, we think the capex reduction will be neutral to

33、positive with investors. We forecast that DVN will spend $2.3bn in total capex this year, which results in $90mm of FCF at $50 WTI,$3.00 Henry Hub, and strip WCS differential pricing of ($16/bbl). See Fig. 8 for Barclays vs. Street Consensus estimates.NBL. In February 2018, NBLs 2018-2020 outlook ca

34、lled for $2.9bn of capex (excluding NBLX capex) based on $50 WTI. We anticipate that mgmt. will update the 2019-2020 outlook alongside Q418 earnings. NBL originally anticipated that it would be around CF neutral/slightly FCF positive in 2019 at $50 WTI ($2.8bn in operating cash flow vs.$2.9bn in cap

35、ex excluding NBLX). However, we forecast that NBL will have a wide outspend due to several events, including higher than expected cost inflation in 2018, capex reallocation within the US onshore 2018 and completions timing in the Permian in 2019.In order to narrow the outspend on NBLs $50 WTI planni

36、ng price deck, we m$2.7bnof capex (excluding NBLX capex) in 2019 vs. NBLs original $2.9bn guide. We anticipate that Permian production will be back-half loaded due to timing of the start-up of the EPIC pipeline (Q319) and potentially a slower start to the year in completions. In addition, we nolonge

37、r mflat Eagle Ford yoy as we think mgmt. is likely to prioritize capex in its two USonshore growth assets (Permian and DJ Basins). On a consolidated basis, our 2019 activity forecast still results in NBL outspending discretionary cash flow by $670mm at $50 WTI, although we expect the cash flow neutr

38、ality in 2020 (again, based on $50 flat WTI). See Fig. 8 for Barclays vs. Street Consensus estimates.CLR. CLR will release the 2019 production/capex outlook after market close on February 13th (ahead of Q418 earnings). In February 2018 mgmt. guided 2019 production growth of 15-20% on a capex budget

39、of $2.5-2.8bn. While mgmt. did not explicitly indicate what crude price the 2019 guide was based on, WTI strip pricing at the time of the release was$55. Thus, based on strip pricing and the $60 WTI 2018 planning price deck, our sense is that the 2019 outlook was underpinned by $55-60 WTI.Since curr

40、ent 2019 WTI strip pricing is $55 and given recent volatility in crude prices, we do not anticipate that CLRs 2019 budget will be meaningfully different than the current$2.5-2.8bn guidance, although we think the midpoint of finalized budget is biased to the upper half of the range.CDEV. In December,

41、 CDEV walked back its plans set in early November to add 2.5 rigs in 2019 (up from 7 in 2018) and retrenched from its long-held 65MBbl/d 2020 oil production target. CDEV had previously guided to reach CF neutrality during 2020 and positive FCF for full-year 2021, albeit at $75/Bbl WTI. CDEV has no p

42、rotection from oil price hedges and is keen on not exceeding 25% net debt/cap.Assuming some cost deflation, CDEV may be able stay under its net debt/cap governor at strip pricing with 7 rigs, equating to $1bn capex, but DrillingInfo shows the company currently operating at only 6 rigs. Assuming 6 ri

43、gs, 2019 production is still over 20% y/y but 2020 production falls to low double digits and there is still a sizeable outspend eating into$630mm of pro forma liquidity. CDEV plans to provide updated guidance on 2019 production, capex and unit costs during 4Q18 earnings later this month.7 February 2

44、0194Barclays | E&P Topic Du JourFIGURE 12019 Capex and Production OutlookAPA$3410-440 Mboe/d$65*APC* CDEV CLR CPE CXODVNEOG FANG JAG MRONBL PE PXDSM WPX XEC$4.3-$4.7712-740 Mboe/d410-435 Mbo/d$60$75$55*$2.5-$2.815%-20%$2.5*$3.4-$3.6$2.4-$2.712%-16%16%-20%15%-19% for retained assets$55-$60$50/$65

45、*$50*$3.00$2.7-$3.1275-290 Mboe/d189.75-200.1 Mbo/d$50*$50$50$2.90$1.35-$1.55400 MBOE/d124-134 Mboe/d20% CAGR through 202625% CAGR through 202080-85 MBo/d$3.00$1.11$1.1-$1.275$55$50$50-$55*149-161 Mboe/d94-101 Mboe/d*Estimate per Barclays*Restricted on APC*Original 2017-2020 plan based on $50 WTI; u

46、pdated 2017-2020 estimates based on $65 WTI per the Q3'18 Operations Report.Source: Barclays Research, Company data.Sentiment Check-in on Q418 EarningsAlthough Q418 earnings is typically an information-packed quarter and this year we think it is a pivot quarter for the E&P capital discipline

47、 narrative, overall our takeaway from recent marketing meetings is that E&P conviction is lower than in recent quarters. See below for our views on the upcoming quarters vs. our take on where sentiment is. As always, we acknowledge that sentiment can change quickly and is a function of the datas

48、et.FIGURE 2Sentiment Check in on 4Q18 Earnings: Large CapsAPA CLR CXO DVN EOG FANG MRO NBL PE PXDXECNegative Positive Neutral Neutral Positive Neutral Positive Negative Neutral PositiveNeutralNeutral/Negative (capex cut expected, concerns on Altus funding) MixedNeutral/Negative (pricing concerns)Neu

49、tral/Positive (capex cut expected, catch-up trade given Canada/STACK overhangs removed, lower Meramec type curve expected) Negative (continuation of degrading oil capital efficiency bear argument)Mixed PositiveNeutral/Negative (capex cut expected, potentially strong Q4'18 oil production, concern

50、s on updated 2020 being weaker than expected) Neutral/Negative (Dec pre-release, 2019 execution and spacing concerns)PositiveMixed (messy 2019 guide given REN acquisition, questions on mu ti-year guide, positive messaging on FCF)Source: Barclays Research7 February 20195BarclaysOur Take on Sentiment2

51、019 Capex/Production OutlookPrice Assumptions*Capex ($bn)ProductionOil ProductionWTIHenry HubBarclays | E&P Topic Du JourWhat is Priced In? A Look at Fundamental MetricsA Tough Question to Answer These DaysFor Large Caps we anticipate that APA, DVN, and NBL will reduce 2019 capex vs. prior guida

52、nce, and XEC/EOG capex will be meaningfully lower than Street Consensus. However, our sense is that these capex cuts are in line with buy side expectations. Thus, if these capex cuts are broadly expected by investors, are the cuts already priced in?To determine if the capex cuts are priced in we loo

53、ked at YTD stock price performance, CF sensitivity to oil prices (change in CFO to +$5/bbl increase in oil price and EBITDAX margins), short interest (current and vs. January 1st 2019), and % oil hedged. Notably, WTI is now 20% higher than the December 24th low of $45.YTD stock outperformance for AP

54、A, DVN, NBL, and XEC, the recent crude rally, and the perceived beta rally make it difficult to answer if the cuts are already priced in. Based on fundamental CF sensitivity, we would have expected APA to sharply outperform in January given its high sensitivity to fluctuations in oil prices, as well

55、s as DVN/XEC but to a lesser extent. This suggests that little is priced in for capex cuts. On the other hand, our analysis suggests that NBLs capex cut is more likely to be at least partially priced in as it is has slightly below average sensitivity to oil price changes at 10% plus below average sh

56、ort interest at 5% yet the stock has notably outperformed YTD. However for better or for worse, positioning now has an outsized affect on stock performance and our sense is thatthe dedicated energy commu which provides meaningful offset.is already expecting 2019 capex cuts from these names,See below

57、 for our broader sector takeaways·Cash flow sensitivity and YTD performance is our focus: While the extreme cases follow the trend that we would expect during a crude price rally (i.e., APA has the highest cash flow sensitivity to fluctuations in oil prices and has had notable stock price outperformance YTD, while JAG and CXO have the lowest cash flow sensitivity and have underp