课件说明成果03additional note b

1、1Additional Note BForecasting ToolsC.H. ChengDepartment of Systems Engineering & Engineering ManagementThe Chinese University of Hong Kong2ForecastingForecastingzWhen we are working with short-term objectives, we partly rely on some forecasting methods to give us some ideas of market demand. zForeca

2、sting is a method for us to predict future happenings that will influence the planning of an organization. zThe use of forecasting can be traced back in the management literature to Henri Fayol. For most organizations, it is crucial to predict future sales (or for non-profit activities, of future op

3、erations). In this lecture note, we will discuss several business forecasting methods.3Jury of executive opinionzThis is the simplest method. The top executives of the organisation each provide an estimate of future volume, and the president provides a considered average of these estimates. This met

4、hod is inexpensive and quick.4Sales force compositez Members of the sales forces put forth their estimated sales in their own territory. z Regional sales managers combine these estimates. They adjust these estimates based on their perception of individual salespeoples optimism or pessimism, and base

5、d on the general sales manager knowledge of new products or new factors that are not known to the salespeople. z This is often used since the field sales force is closest to the customers. z However, it is possible that the estimate a salesperson provides will next appear as a minimum goal they must

6、 achieve. The use of this method requires a very capable regional manager who can correct the biased estimates.5Users expectationzWhen a company sells most of its product to a few customers, the simplest method is to ask the customers to project their needs for the future period. zThis method is goo

7、d for industrial products. The main belief is that customers know themselves better.6Simple Forecasting ModelszMoving AveragezSimple exponential smoothingzHolts method: exponential smoothing with trendzWinters Method: exponential smoothing with seasonality 7Moving Average8Moving Average910Limitations of MA11Simple exponential smoothing1213141516Holts method: exponential smoo