参考市场营销lecture7after class

1、Lecture 7 Marketing Research & Consumer BehaviorHaodong GuBM, MPhil, PhD Department of Management SILC Business School Shanghai UniversityRoom 309 Wende Building: guhaodongConsultation hours: Friday 12:00 pm to 14:00 pm Study hours: Thursday 19:00 pm to 21:00 pmHaodong Gu1Brief Review of Lecture

2、 6Take away pointsMarketing information system, as a broad concept, includes the internal database of the company, marketing intelligence, and marketing research (mainly primary marketing research).Companies now have many sources of valuable data, the problem is by no means the lack of information,

3、but the lack of insights based on useful information. The job for market analysts is to screen through huge databases and be sensitive enough to notice trends and opportunities that can influence the strategic decision making.The marketing research process: definition and objectives, plans, executio

4、n, analysis.Haodong Gu2Brief Review of Lecture 6Take away pointsThe four major types of research approaches are observations (including ethnographic research), focus group and interviews (in our textbook it iscategorized asal contact method in surveys, the logic of which I dontquite follow), surveys

5、 and experiments.Observations and interviews / focus group are more suitable for exploratory research. The key for observational research is the interpretation of the data.Surveys are more suitable for descriptive research. Different types of contact methods have their pros and cons.Experiments are

6、more suitable for causal research. A scientific experimental design is necessary for experiments to yield any meaningful results.Haodong Gu3Marketing ResearchAn example of observationIt is a good idea to observe customers using the self-service facilities in supermarkets and airports.Haodong Gu4Mark

7、eting ResearchSurvey and descriptionMost surveys aim at providing statistical description on a variable.Here are some examples of statistical description if you want to do a survey to improve the service quality of school canteens:üüüüüüThe visiting frequency for each c

8、anteen.Teral customer satisfaction for each canteen.Average spending for a lunch / dinner. Average waiting time in each canteen.If dining with friends, which canteen is your favorite?If dining alone, which canteen is your favorite?Haodong Gu5Marketing ResearchSurvey and questionnaireMost surveys use

9、 questionnaires. A good questionnaire should:(1)Have a clear introduction part, stating the motivation and nature of the survey.Also inform the respondents who the researchers are and how long it will take to finish the survey. If incentives are provided, clearly describe whether the incentives are

10、performance related and how to claim the incentives once the respondents finish the questionnaires.(2)(3)Give clear instructions on each question: type of question and how to answer.When choices are provided, make sure all options are clearly defined andexhaust all possibility.(4)If you have to ask

11、sensitive questions, use projection techniques or check forsocially desirable response bias.(5)Surveys are more suitable for measuring predispositions rather than reactionsbased on scenarios and situations.Haodong Gu6Marketing ResearchSurvey and questionnaireWhichcourse?What if I am 25?Highest educa

12、tion?Is university an education level?What is part-time casual?How about students and military?If I live in Suzhou, is it close to Shanghai or other provinces?Haodong Gu7HG1幻灯片 7HG1Haodong Gu, 2015/9/23Marketing ResearchSurvey and questionnaiI spend $10,000 for an engagement ring, but only $500 for

13、earringsWhat is fine jewelry?Do you think buying for mom and for wife mean the same thing?Family is too big a conceptDefine “not very well”.Not for myself can be yes for others?Not at all contains not for myself.Haodong Gu8HG1幻灯片 8HG1Haodong Gu, 2015/9/23Marketing ResearchSurvey and questionnaireThi

14、s is a question that is more suitable for an interview rather than a survey.Same, I would not use questionnaire as the instrument for this question.If you really want to use a questionnaire and a survey to understand the underlying motivation, make it an open-end question.Haodong Gu9HG1幻灯片 9HG1Haodo

15、ng Gu, 2015/9/23Marketing ResearchExperiment and causalityConsider the following research question: children who watch violent TV shows are more likely to be aggressive. How would you test the causality?Haodong Gu10Marketing ResearchExperiment and causalityConsider the following research question: c

16、hildren who watch violent TV shows are more likely to be aggressive. How would you test the causality?Can you use a questionnaire to measure the aggressiveness among children and check what TV shows they watch?If there is a positive correlation, can you come to the shows cause more aggressive behavi

17、or?that violent TVProblems are: (1) children who are more aggressive may favor violent TV shows;(2) having the chance to watch violent TV shows usually means lack of parental care and attention, which can also lead to aggressive behavior among children due to the insecure feelings in them.The first

18、problem is called reversed causality, and the second problem is called confounding effect.Experiment is perhaps a better way to disentangle the impact of violent TV shows on children.Haodong Gu11Marketing ResearchExperimentThe three important features of experiment: design, design, and design. A goo

19、d design is almost everything in an experiment.Whats your design?Slow beat is better?Haodong Gu12Marketing ResearchExperiment designX = experiment treatment (e.g., change of taste);O = observation or measurement of dependent variables (e.g., purchase intention of Magnum);R = randomly assigned or sel

20、ected groups of consumers of Magnum.One-shot design: X1O1; (look at the average value of O1)Major problem: no control group.Haodong Gu13Marketing ResearchExperiment design Static group design: Experiment group: Control group:R1R2X1X2O1;O2; (compare means of O1 and O2);Major problem: the assumption t

21、hat group one is identical to group two before the treatment is questionable.Haodong Gu14Marketing ResearchExperiment designPre-test and post-test design: O1X1O2; (compare means of O1 and O2)Major problem: seasonality and influence of time on the effect of treatment. You can run the test at differen

22、t times, but the cost of experiment would be high and companies require immediate results for product development and commercialization purposes.Haodong Gu15Marketing ResearchExperiment designPre-test and post-test control group design:Experiment group:Control group:R1R2O1O3X1X2O2;O4;Test whether (O

23、2-O1) (O4-O3) is significantly different from zero.Major problem: measurement (e.g., O1 and O3) may interact with the treatment X and influence the post observation.Haodong Gu16Marketing ResearchExperiment design Solomon four-group design:R1 R2 R3R4O1O3X1 X2 X1X2O2;O4;O5;O6;How to test the impact of

24、 treatment?(O4-O3) - (O2-O1) - (O5-O2) + (O6-O4)Why?Solomon four-group design is perhaps the most stringent experiment design for testing the impact of a treatment compared to a control group, but it is seldom used in marketing research.Haodong Gu17Marketing ResearchExperimentSome problems with expe

25、riments:(1) Lab settingsTo rule out unwanted factors, laboratory environment is usually needed;But whether the findings can be generalized back to business world is questionable.(2) Small sample sizeTo help with the manipulation, sample size is usually small.(3) High costLike interviews, a large sam

26、ple and “scientific” experiment would be very expensiveHaodong Gu18Marketing ResearchOther methodsReal-time experience tracking (RET)Fastest response times to campaigns, results within days.Tracks all brand touch points equally well media, digital, in-store, WOM. The only way of evaluating campaigns

27、 in real time.It is widely adopted with mobile terminals being introduced.More information please refer to the Harvard Business Review article.Haodong Gu19Marketing ResearchSamplingA sample is a segment of this population that has been selected to represent the population as a whole.How much is enou

28、gh? Similar to information searching: the more you sample, the more accurate the result could be. Meanwhile, the higher the cost of the research.Customer Satisfaction SurveyExisting customers = 40 millionsInclude everyone in the survey?Haodong Gu20Marketing ResearchSamplingSampling is relevant to al

29、l types of marketing research.A representative sampling group can alleviate the concern that results from the research is due to biased sampling process.Define the population before the sampling process.Haodong Gu21Marketing ResearchSamplingIf the university wants to know the living conditions of ou

30、r students through a survey, what is the sampling process?Draw via student number.Draw via the number of years in Shanghai University. Draw via faculties and dormitory building numbers.Haodong Gu22Marketing ResearchSamplingNon-Probability SampleProbability SampleConvenient & Judgement SampleSnow

31、ballQuick response; Less or no control of the process.Every element of the population has an equal chance of being selected; Less sampling error; Large scale and expensive.Easy to contact; Suitability?Less expensiveHaodong Gu23Marketing ResearchSamplingIn statistics, sampling error is incurred when

32、statistical characteristics of a population are estimated from a subset, or sample, of the population. Since the sample does not include all members of the population, statistics on the sample, such as means and variance, generally differ from statistics on the entire population.Sampling bias when u

33、sing non probabilistic sampling;Inherent sampling error due to not being able to include the entire population.The more the better (given that there is no sampling bias).Haodong Gu24Marketing ResearchData analysisQuantitativeQualitativeHaodong Gu25Marketing ResearchData analysisQualitativeResearch A

34、spectQuantitativeDiscover ideas, used in exploratory research with general research objectsTest hypotheses or specific research questionsPurposeObserve and interpretApproachMeasure and testingUnstructured, free-formData CollectionClose-end, structuralLarge samples to generalise to populationSmall sa

35、mples in a natural waySamplingHaodong Gu26Marketing ResearchData analysisStarbucks make us feel ill, with their carefully chosen, subtle (but not too bland) colour scheme. They try to suggest some kind of ethnic, liberal charm. Even the back-ground music has been Starbucked: watered-down, instrument

36、al versions of Hendrix; after all, we wouldnt want to offend.The quirky living room sofas and tables are not so quirky when you realize they are identical to the other thousands of stores, and those thousands of stores, like a plague infesting our high streets, are a McDonalds for the new media gene

37、ration. Most of all, we dislike their vermin like spread, subsidizing new stores in order to outpriceand close down local rivals, before turning entire towns and cities that horrid green, blanding out any local culture and diversity worldwideHaodong Gu27Marketing ResearchData analysisStrong brand as

38、sociationDislike ambienceDislike logoNegative emotionsIrony usedEthical?Starbucks make us fee ill, with their carefully chosen, subtle (but not too bland) colour scheme. They try to suggest some kind of ethnic, liberal charm. Even the back-ground music has been Starbucked: watered-down, instrumental

39、 versions of Hendrix; after all, we wouldnt want to offend.The quirky living room sofas and tables are not so quirky when you realize they are identical to the other thousands of stores, and those thousands of stores, like a plague infesting our high streets, are aNo uniquenessMcDonalds for the new

40、media generation. Most of all, we dislike their vermin like spread, subsidizing new stores in order to outpriceand close down local rivals, before turning entire towns and cities that horrid green, blanding out any local culture and diversity worldwideDislike the experienceDislike storedesignHaodong

41、 Gu28Marketing ResearchData analysisTranscript generating: typing out the conversations;Categorization: classifying or labeling units of data;Abstraction: builds on categorization. It collapses more empirically grounded categories into higher-order conceptual constructs;Comparison: explore differenc

42、es and similarities across incidents within the data currently collected and provides guidelines for collecting additional data. Relate “observations” to one another to develop “meta-observations”;Dimensionalisation: represent conceptual dimensions that vary empirically in the data across the incide

43、nts depicting the construct;Integration: mapping the relationships between conceptual elements;Iteration: moving through data back and forth;Refutation: negative case analysis, purposive sampling, and testing by context; Consensus: sharing the results and findings with your group members.Haodong Gu2

44、9Marketing ResearchData analysisSoftware is available for doing data analysis based on text. Using these tools means that the analysis can sometimes be subjective and requires human judgment from time to time. The software should be deemed as a facilitating tool rather than magic of text.Haodong Gu3

45、0Marketing ResearchData analysisHaodong Gu31Marketing ResearchData analysisThe quantitative data analysis can be as simple as a central tendency estimation or can be as complex as methods explained in statistical journals published in 2015.Distributed lag:Autoregressive:Moving average:Autoregressive

46、 moving average (ARMA):Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA):State-space: one observation equation with evolving space matrix.Haodong Gu32Marketing ResearchDark sideNew Coke was the reformulation of Coca-Cola introduced in 1985 by The Coca-Cola Company to replace the original formula of i

47、ts flagship soft drink, Coca-Cola (also called Coke). New Coke originally had no separate name of its own, but was simply known as "the new taste of Coca-Cola" until 1992 when it was renamed Coca-Cola II.The American public's reaction to the change was negative and the new cola was a m

48、ajor marketing failure. The subsequent reintroduction of Coke's original formula, re-branded as "Coca-Cola Classic", resulted in a significant gain in sales, leading to speculation that the introduction of the New Coke formula was just a marketing ploy.From a marketing research methodology perspective: was it well implemented? From a marketing strategy perspective: what was the mistake?Haodong Gu33Consumer BehaviorIntroductionMoon-viewing flights are flights that depart between 6 pm and 12 pm from Sept 26 to 28. During the journey, tourists can