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1、知识改变命运 勤奋塑造成功整理人落叶时间 2011-4-15天才是百分之九十九的勤奋加百分之一的灵感Argument Example调查1, Selective sample:样本选择,一部分被排除在外One major problem is about the sample the author studied in the survey. the author considers only.(selective sub-groups) although (the sub-groups the author studied) do constitute a significant part

2、of (the whole general population), however, (many other sub-groups) are actually excluded from the survey. Perhaps.or.without ruling out all the possibilities above, the author could not make any general conclusion about.merely based on (selective sub-groups). 4,14,16,45,63,65,67,80,84,88,90,97,123,

3、146,154,156,168,179,185,193,196,207,227,231,232,236,238,2392, Quantity of the sample样本数量( pointing out that the current sample is too small in its size)(the fact cited by the author) could hardly illustrate the assumption that. because the author provides only N samples of (the general population),h

4、owever, (the limited sample) might not be representative of the whole general group. thus we cannot accept the authors conclusion that.before he/she could provide more statistic data about (the situation of other sub-groups).10,14,33,40,53,69,95,115,123,132,139,150,154,158,167,179,180,188,191,2393,

5、Do the statistics make any difference:调查只调查了部分情况,忽略了一部分The information provided by the author is insufficient for the author to reach the conclusion. the survey only studies the situation of .(an(some) insignificant case(s), however, many other more essential cases (related to the final conclusion)

6、were ignored in the survey.(we need to know the condition of some other cases about which we care more/ the current case studied in the survey makes little sense on the final conclusion, the author should provide some more important information about the case he studied. )Lacking further studies on

7、these important issues, the author could not hastily conclude that.merely based on the insignificant study.158,165,183,202,211,217 17,115,147,2205, Who conducted the survey:结果扭曲,调查者为了自己的利益The reliability of the survey is also open to doubt due to the organization who conducted the survey. (the organ

8、ization) has vested interest in the final decision/conclusion which was based on the result of the survey, and thus might distort the actual answers of the respondents. (the institution/individuals may benefit greatly from the result if the result was interpreted as was currently ) Thus, the author

9、should cite a survey which is conducted by an independent institution to convince us that (the assumption).115,1566, When was the survey conducted:时间变化The effectiveness of the result of the survey cited by the author as main evidence is also open to doubt.The survey was conduct (during a special per

10、iod, or a long time ago), thus may not reflect the current situations accurately. It is true that ( the survey may reflect the opinions or situations of respondents at the time when it was conducted), but peoples opinion toward (the subject surveyed) may have changed greatly during the past time (or

11、, while this fact could not sufficiently illustrate that (the general group) will also.all the time)(many factors that could influence the validity of the survey will change in the future, or respondents may act differently during the period when the survey was conducted, thus the result of the surv

12、ey could not represent the all-time situation. )Thus, a more recent survey, if a survey is needed at all, should be provided to sufficiently illustrate the authors assumption that.7, Vague data:数据模糊没有基数The information concerning .is not accurate enough for us to evaluate the actual condition of .The

13、 author only informs us that (the percentage/fraction of sub-groups which.but we do not know the base amount of (the general group) (if the base amount or corresponding fractions vary, the conclusion would be different. ) For lack of detailed information about ( the base amount / fraction of) . we c

14、an hardly assess .4,5,8,9,11,12,14,16,20,22,23,25,27,31,32,39,42,44,49,52,55,68,70,71,73,77,79,87,89,100,103,120,122,124,130,133,134,135,141,143,144,145,155,159,165,175,177,182,183,189,194,196,199,200,203,204,206,211,212,214,216,222,223,231,236,2388,Incomplete information:数据不完整The author does not pr

15、ovide complete information concerning .in illustrating that .The author only informs us that. but what we care more about is that. which is not provided by the author. (some other substantial information are needed for us to assess the soundness of the argument, and the conclusion would vary greatly

16、 when other conditions varied. ) For lack of detailed information about . we can hardly evaluate .6,7,8,10,14,15,17,18,20,21,24,27,29,30,32,35,36,38,39,42,43,44,46,49,52,54,64,65,66,68,70,71,73,77,79,81,82,83,84,85,87,88,89,90,91,92,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,103,104,105,107,108,116,117,119,120,127,130,1

17、35,137,141,143,144,145,147,150,152,155,161,165,166,167,168,169,170,171,172,174,175,179,180,181,183,184,185,191,192,193,198,199,200,203,205,206,211,212,213,214,215,216,217,218,219,221,222,224,225,226,228,229,231,232,233,235,237,238,239,240,241,2429, Are the respondents forthright when answering the q

18、uestions:回答者不真实The reliability of the respondents.answers to the surveys question is not sufficiently justified to support the conclusion. There is possibility that the respondents may not tell the truth about. (answering the questions honestly may lead to some undesirable consequences for the respo

19、ndents, thus they may evade the crucial point, or even lie in their answers. ) Under such circumstances, it is almost impossible for us to expect the respondents to provide accurate information about their opinion toward.92,199,211,24210, Are the respondents representative:回答者没有代表性We should also not

20、ice that the respondents studied in the survey may not represent the general group of .We all know that in many cases, people who are interested in .might be generally more likely to respond to the survey than other people are, or are more willing to express their own opinions and positions on the i

21、ssue of .(other people who did not respond may hold a totally different position toward the issue studied, and the author should include those people in the study to present a more convincing result. )Without considering the situation of other groups of people, the result of the survey in itself cou

22、ld not justifiably illustrate that .11,15,17,28,34,40,43,52,55,57,62,65,76,95,102,111,115,117,153,154,161,167,168,174,194,201,206,212,218,224,235比较11, False analogy:错误类比AB,A适合BIn the argument the author recommends A to carry out same (policies, actions, solutions on . as B, but the analogy between t

23、hem might be unsubstantiated. The author fails to illustrate that A and B are similar enough at every aspect and are indeed comparable. While it is true that A and B share some common ground on .there are still some obvious differences between them. (many differences exist between A and B and these

24、differences may well render the policies(actions, solutions, etc) proved to be effective for A might not have the same effectiveness for B )Before A decide to copy Bs experiences, the author should take these differences into account and make careful study on the comparability of the two (cities, co

25、mpanies, schools, etc).2,4,9,12,13,16,18,20,25,26,28,29,31,35,38,39,41,42,43,44,55,56,67,72,89,91,92,94,97,99,102,108,109,110,116,119,124,125,131,132,133,149,152,155,160,162,169,177,180,182,186,187,192,198,204,205,209,210,211,212,218,226,230,232,235,236,237,238,23912, Incomplete comparison /selectiv

26、e comparison /ex parte information:错误对比AB,A不一定比B好The author hastily implies that A is superior to B in . but the comparison between A and B is incomplete.The author only compares . however, there are myriad of factors which, if differ in these cases, would bring about totally different result for th

27、e comparison. (many other factors would influence the result while ignored by the author in the argument ) Without any further consideration about these factors, the author could not convince us that (A is better than B in certain aspect) merely based on an incomplete comparison.13, Confusing compar

28、ison and variation:只对比了一部分的变化or vice versa.In the argument the author provides the variation in .to illustrate that .Although the variation in .could partly prove that . however, we all know that to demonstrate .the comparison between A and B is actually more convincing and necessary.: (the comparis

29、on between those entities could be more convincing in illustrating the conclusion ) Lacking comparison between . we could not assess if .23,48,63,85,106,132,135,168,173,179,180,186,188,206,216,224,240 Incomplete comparison/exparte information: 2,4,17,24,34,49,51,57,60,63,64,77,81,82,85,93,96,98,101,

30、103,105,109,114,126,129,131,132,139,151,159,162,166,167,172,173,179,186,187,188,193,200,203,211,212,214,216,220,222,231,233,234,238,24114, Unrelated concepts:偷换概念In illustrating the assumption that .the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization.: The author cites A to prove B, however, A is n

31、ot a good indication of B. (there are basic differences between A and B, thus A could not be properly used to illustrate B ) The author ought to make careful and clear differentiation between A and B before we could evaluate if the inference that .is justified.1,3,4,10,11,16,20,23,29,31,34,35,36,38,

32、40,44,48,49,53,55,58,63,67,68,72,77,80,81,85,87,88,89,91,93,96,101,105,106,107,114,120,121,124,130,132,133,134,139,140,143,146,153,155,156,160,161,166,167,172,173,175,181,183,187,188,190,193,194,196,198,199,200,201,Hasty generalization: 38,54,56,59,61,66,81,89,98,137,140,154203,212,214,215,216,217,2

33、18,220,221,223,231,233,234,235,239,24115, Changing scopes:偷换范围The fact that .could sufficiently substantiate the conclusion that.since the argument is based only on (some special cases) and the author does not differentiate between the .of (different subjects) .Although the authors inference that .m

34、ight be true for some cases, for example, .Unfortunately, this is not true of every individual (in the general group). (other subjects may have totally different situation thus the authors inference could not be properly applied to them. ) Unless the author can demonstrate that (the condition of oth

35、er subjects is similar to that of the case studied), the general conclusion cannot be reached merely basing on these special and limited cases.3,6,8,10,19,22,23,28,29,40,41,44,45,49,51,60,70,80,83,84,87,90,91,93,94,95,96,97,98,113,115,116,117,118,119,121,126,129,130,131,134,135,145,147,148,150,154,1

36、56,158,165,171,172,175,176,180,185,187,188,193,194,195,203,205,206,207,211,213,217,218,220,223,230,233,234,24216, Inferring a future condition from a past condition:过去不能推未来In the argument the author suggests that we can (solve current problems or achieve current goals) through methods which have suc

37、cessfully solved the same kind of problems in the past.There is a hidden assumption assumed by the author that all conditions and factors upon which the effectiveness of (the method) depend have remained unchanged during the past (N years).However, many factors could have been changed during the pas

38、t years. (many conditions and factors could have varied, which might render the solutions which were proved to be effective in the past might not have the same effectiveness in current days or in the future. )Without taking into account all these constantly changing factors, the author could not con

39、vince us that the proposed solution could be used to solve current problems successfully. 1,2,4,5,8,11,13,15,18,20,21,22,23,25,30,32,36,37,48,52,61,62,65,67,68,73,78,85,87,93,94,95,100,116,119,130,134,136,138,140,146,151,158,161,167,168,171,183,190,201,204,208,209,213,216,218,219,225,226,230,237,240

40、,24130, Lack of controlled experiment/ comparison:没考虑其他变量The author unfairly assumes that it is .that resulted in . The causal relationship is convincing only if the author could demonstrate that all other factors that might affect .remained constant during the same period.(pointing out that corresp

41、onding controlled experiment is needed, or explaining how the experiment should be conducted.)Specifically, we need to know (the experiment result of one group of the subjects), Without appropriate comparison between A and B, the assumption that .is unwarranted.18,23,41,59,75,76,85,103,122,128,153,1

42、67,168,175,176,180,206,207,224,236,237,241,242解决办法17, Sufficiency and necessity of a solution:解决办法不够有力The author assumes that the proposed actions are both sufficient and necessary for (achieving certain goal).To solve the problem successfully, many other fundamental requirements must be fulfilled.

43、(many other important works must be done. ) Furthermore, many other available methods besides (the authors proposal) could also be used to achieve the same purpose. (many other effective methods could also be adopted. )Before the author make a careful and thorough comparison between the effectivenes

44、s of his own proposal and other possible methods, the authors proposal should not be hastily carried out.3,7,8,9,10,12,18,19,20,24,25,26,28,30,39,41,42,43,48,52,54,59,60,64,65,68,69,74,79,80,82,83,85,86,87,90,91,94,96,97,98,99,100,102,104,105,106,107,108,110,111,112,115,116,117,122,123,124,125,127,1

45、28,129,131,134,135,136,137,139,140,141,145,146,147,149,152,153,155,157,159,161,162,163,164,166,168,169,170,172,173,175,177,178,181,183,185,187,188,189,190,191,192,194,195,196,197,200,201,204,205,206,208,209,211,212,213,215,217,219,222,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,232,236,237,238,239,240,24218, Failin

46、g to consider the feasibility of the conclusion:解决办法没有可行性The feasibility of the arguers proposal can also be cast doubt on. The proposal relies on an assumption that (the proposal could be successfully carried out)however, the assumption might be unwarranted due to some critical obstacles. (possible

47、 obstacles to the effectiveness of the solution. )Unless the author could demonstrate that those obstacles could be effectively overcome, the proposal might be practically unfeasible.2,24,28,29,39,42,43,51,64,71,86,90,99,102,125,129,132,137,139,141,143,155,163,164,169,172,175,176,178,187,189,191,194

48、,195,204,208,209,210,211,212,217,226,228,230,232,23319, Failing to weigh the advantage and disadvantage thoroughly:没考虑解决方法带来的坏处In claiming that . the author needs to do more comprehensive research on both positive and negative effects of the proposal. Although the proposal could be adopted to (solve

49、 the problem) to a certain degree, however, carrying out the proposal may actually bring about more harmful effects. (possible harmful effects ignored by the author. )Under such scenario, adopting the authors proposal would harm, rather than benefit, (the authors purpose).Incomplete thought: 1,10,11

50、,15,17,24,27,29,31,32,34,35,37,47,49,50,51,52,53,54,58,59,66,69,71,73,78,84,86,87,90,95,97,98,100,104,107,108,110,111,120,123,124,125,126,128,130,134,136,142,143,144,145,147,151,169,177,193,202,236,239Failing to weigh the advantage and disadvantage thoroughly: 1,2,5,9,13,14,21,22,23,24,38,39,40,43,4

51、4,52,55,60,62,63,65,67,69,71,72,76,80,82,84,86,89,92,94,96,98,101,102,104,105,107,108,111,112,114,118,119,122,124,125,127,128,129,133,136,151,152,157,160,163,164,168,169,170,172,173,174,176,178,180,181,182,184,185,186,188,189,191,192,193,200,201,204,206,208,210,213,215,217,218,221,224,226,227,228,22

52、9,230,231,232,234,237,24220, False dilemma:两者选一,没考虑其他解决办法In explaining . the author is presenting a false dilemma. The author simply assumes that (the situation would be either A or B), while the two.are not necessarily mutually exclusive. (many other solutions/explanations could be more justifiable

53、.) Before ruling out all the possibilities above, the author could not convince us that there are only those two possible explanations for us to accept.5,33,41,47,82,93,108,113,138,148,150,166,175,182,184,185,190,195,196,202,204,205,213,218,220,233因果关系21, Non-causal relationship:没有因果关系,其他因素的影响The au

54、thor unfairly assumes that it is .that resulted in .: But we can find no concrete evidence to substantiate the inevitable relationship between .and . (many other factors could also lead to the result/the author should conduct controlled study to demonstrate the causal relationship ) In short, the au

55、thor could not hastily conclude that .is the only possible reason for .before taking above factors into account.1,3,4,6,7,9,12,15,18,19,20,22,26,27,28,33,35,38,39,42,43,44,45,47,48,49,54,55,56,62,63,64,69,70,74,76,77,78,79,80,81,85,88,90,94,96,97,98,106,109,110,112,113,116,119,120,121,122,124,125,13

56、1,132,133,135,136,137,139,141,144,145,147,149,150,156,158,159,160,162,167,168,169,171,172,176,181,187,190,192,193,194,199,201,207,209,212,218,220,221,222,223,224,225,228,231,232,235,236,24122, Confusing the cause and the effect:不是A导致B,而是B导致A(少见)In the process of reasoning the author assumes that A i

57、s the reason for B.However, the author may confuse the cause and the effect. (there is possibility that it is B that actually causes A )The author fails to rule out the possibility that (B results in A). Since the author has not adequately take this possibility into account, the assumption that .is

58、untenable.34,72,79,88,105,114,126,129,133,145,153,154,211,227,23223, Confusing concurrence with causality:同时发生不为因果The most important problem is the underlying assumption that it is .that resulted in . The author only points out that the two events occurred during the same period, however, we all know that merely a coincidence of two events could not sufficiently demonstrate a causal relationship between them. (many other factors could also lead to the result/the author should conduct contro

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