毕业设计(论文)外文参考资料及译文中国农村老龄化问题及政策选择

1、毕业设计（论文）外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文译文题目：中国农村老龄化问题及政策选择学生姓名：学 号：专 业：行政管理所在学院：龙蟠学院 指导教师：职 称：讲师2011年 3 月 1 日中国农村老龄化问题及政策选择一、 简介中国65岁及以上人口流动部分（约7%）没有世界其他国家的高（2000年人口资料局）。然而，由于20世纪70年代初期计划生育的有效实施，导致生育率急剧下降，这个现象意味着老龄化问题的加速。生育率下降的速度可以决定这个问题的进展所产生的后果的程度。由于社会经济发展之外（吴1992；于1995；张1998）人口的转变，年龄结构和社会经济开发及机构之间的矛盾在中国是不可避免的。

2、为了研究和强调这个问题，一个被称作生育率下降的后果和对策的研究小组在1993年成立。研究人员把他们的研究重点放在人口和社会经济后果的研究和有针对性的对生育率下降的政策影响和年龄的变化结构（乔1996）。很明显，低生育率并非总是比高生育率（谷和穆1994）更好。中国的人口问题开始由规模造成的问题转移到结构所引起的问题。因此，中国在本世纪面临的最重要的问题将是老龄化（乔1994）。这些问题将围绕解决人口和社会经济因素的关系而展开进行的（乔和穆1995）。老龄化问题是一个社会经济的发展和机构不考虑在年龄结构的变化的结果，反过来说，也就是年龄结构本身不适应于社会经济的变化发展。因此，这些问题可以通过调

3、整解决社会和体制的因素，而不是人口结构调整因素，如生育率、死亡率和迁移（乔1997）。家庭规模的缩小，是由于独生子女家庭的增加，这将导致中国传统家庭模式戏剧性的变化（乔1995）。无论是在城市或农村地区都将有4-2-1的模式产生（陈1994）。由于平均寿命延长，健康老龄化已经成为老龄化社会中的一个重要问题（董事会人口研究杂志1995）。解决老龄化问题，关键是要建立一个能为老年人尽早解决这些问题的一个新的社会保障机构（乔1999）。然而，21世纪早期，从计划经济向市场体制转换将会加剧解决问题的难度（乔1998）。即使一般老龄化的趋势在中国农村和城市地区相似，由于不同的社会经济体制，具体的老龄化问

4、题有很大的不同。城市地区的体系类似于其他国家，但农村地区的体系是完全不同的。世界几乎没有哪个地方会像中国的农村的老龄化普遍。它的问题是特殊的，值得特别思考的。农村与城市之间存在的主要差异：1、 城镇居民在企业、事业单位工作，他们每月所赚的固定工资收入普遍高于农村居民的收入。而在农村地区，人们都是考农业生产赚钱，收入既低又不稳定。2、 由于农村居民受户籍制度的限制，他们在城镇寻找就业机会不同。尽管局势由于经济改革、数百万农村地区的人们在城市工作而大大改善，但仍有优势的职位限制农村地区的人。因此，大多数人不得不留在农村地区接受较低的工资。3、 由于在城市地区有较高的收入，居民的储蓄也比农村的居民多

5、。此外，城市的公共设施要比农村的先进，包括通讯系统，交通设施，文化活动，健康和医疗体系等。在农村，这些设备几乎不存在。4、 在城市原有工作企业或机构担保的离退休人员每月都可以拿到足以让他们生活下去的退休金。这些离退休人员不必担心他们未来生活中收入或者是否有能力工作的问题。农村的人们则无法获得这种金融保障或者退休选择。他们必须自己建立自己的保障。如果他们不能做体力活，这就意味着他们不再有能力养活自己。然后他们必须依靠家庭其他成员或者政府。二、 中国老龄化问题一般来说，夫妻根据经济，传统和精神上的需求而自主选择他们所能承受的小孩的数量。在他们完成分娩之前，他们就会知道几个孩子才是他们一生中孩子的数

6、量是适合自己需要的，也是适应将来孩子的生活的。在中国，例如，20世纪50年代和60年代，平均一对夫妻有6个孩子。他们知道作为当时高死亡率的结果，他们的一些子女可能会死亡。他们同样知道他们必须有足够数量的孩子，尤其是儿子，当他们老了的时候照顾他们，并且确保家庭下一代有了它的接班人。孩子的数量是由他们身体和精神的需求决定。社会经济水平越低，就越需要更多数量的孩子。然而，由于自然资源的限制和国家的发展，这种高生育率已经不适合该国，即使它适合每一个家庭。因此，国家和家庭的需求出现了分歧。为了确保国家的发展和家庭的发展，中国必须实施计划生育方案。因为该计划是由政府而不是夫妻自己操作的，一个家庭中孩子的数

7、量可能不适合具体的需求和夫妻的考虑。这是真实的，特别是关于支持和照顾老年人的需要，假设在这期间社会经济条件传统并没有显著改变。计划生育方案实施以前，每对夫妻生育的平均数量为六。从20世纪70年代开始，中国开始普遍实行计划生育方案。起初，对夫妻的生育政策人数约为二。尽管事实上这种限制没有严格执行，但是生育率下降仍然很剧烈。在短短的10年里，总生育率从1970年的5.81下降到1980年的2.24。1980年，政府通过了一项新的政策，要求城市和农村的人们都只能有一个孩子。因为农村地区的人们普遍很难接受一个孩子的政策，1984年政策有了调整，有了一份如果第一胎是女儿，允许他们生第二胎的政策调整；然而

8、，一个孩子的政策在城市却生效了。新政策的波动所造成的总生育率在1980年代没有任何明显的下降。从1990年的人口普查数据估计，总生育率为2.31。自从那时起，生育率迅速地以意想不到的速度下降。1998年，总生育率降到1.76，这是根据国家统计局的出生率的估计而公布的。简而言之，在30年期间，总生育率从1970年到1998年下降了70%（四个孩子等价）。在这同一时期，出生预期寿命也有所增加，从64岁增加到70岁。生育率和死亡率的下降最终确定了年龄结构的变化，或是老年人口的比例。中国瞬息万变的生育年龄结构预示着随后的变化。1982年65岁人口部分的比例只有4.92%，而1990年达到了5.58%。

9、在此期间，出生率的下降对总人口没有造成影响。老化的第一过程是老年人的比例增加。由于出生率持续不变，出生人口在总人口的影响将是巨大的；也就是说，65岁及以上人口的比例将进一步加快。从比例的变化来看，我们预测这加速将从2010年左右开始，结束于2040年左右。这意味着，中国老年人比例增加最快的将发生在2010年到2040年之间（乔，2001）。2040年后，老年人口将达到平衡。也就是说，中国严重的老化问题将在未来10年里很快开始。当我们考虑到他在社会经济和体制框架内，老龄化或者年龄结构的变化成为了一种问题，。虽然老龄化是一个必然的过程，社会经济的发展直接切换或生育率和死亡率的下降可能会导致与年龄有

10、关的问题，这些问题从国家到国家之间和地区到地区之间不同的人口老龄化的速度方面带来的社会和传统惯例，经济实力和社会经济制度。三、 农村子女辅助老人的需求在中国，农村和城市地区之间的情况是相当不同的。在城市地区，大多数人在退休后可以领退休金的企业或者机构内工作。据1992年的调查（1994年中国老龄化研究中心），城市地区73.73%的老年人参与了养老金提供机构。但是在农村地区，只有5.88%的老年人退休时能拿到退休金，94%的人不属于任何机构，也没有可用的退休养老金。因此，农村的人们工作到没有劳动能力的时候才失去工作，不像城市的人们到一个固定的年龄拿养老金。那些在农村地区的没有退休金，没有储蓄的老

11、年人在他们失去工作能力的时候怎么生活？有两种可能的来源：他们自己的积蓄和子女的供养。他们晚年有足够的储蓄来生活吗？根据1992年的调查，农村地区只有13.77%的老年人有银行存款，近84%的人没有储蓄。没有储蓄的老年人如何生活？根据社会习俗，老人必须依靠自己的子女，希望他们抚养和照顾自己。为了辨别年迈的父母得到了他们子女经济扶持的程度，我们可以从父母自己的收入和从子女那得到的经济扶持作比较。根据调查的最后一年，60岁及以上的老年人的平均收入为290.8元（人民币），平均收益为274.72元，这占了两者之和的48.6%，不包括其他来自于亲戚，村庄以及城市的来源。这意味着老年人的子女提供几乎一半的

12、财政支持他们以弥补他们储蓄和收入的匮乏。如果我们把60岁及以上的老人按年龄组合分类，很显然，老年人在晚年大力依靠他们的子女。随着年龄的增长，老年人收入在下降而他们子女的收入在数量和比例上增加。60到64岁的老人只拿到他们子女收入的三分之一。70岁，一般的收入都是来自于子女。80岁之后，几乎90%的财政负担都依赖于他们的子女。这些数据反映了子女们的支持多么的重要，强调了老年人生活的质量与子女的支持有多么密切。这也表明了如果没有子女的支持，农村老人们的生活将有多困难，特别是没有子女的老年人。然而，事实却是随着年龄的增长，从孩子那儿得到的总收入却减少了。这意味着，提供给年纪最大的老人的钱仍然不足，尽

13、管他们子女的贡献超过了年轻老人的子女。资料来源：萨尔瓦多.中国农村老龄化问题及政策选择.EB/OL.46/Brazil2001/s00/S02_04_Qiao.pdf, 2001-08-20. IUSSPXXIVth General Population ConferenceSalvador, Brazil20th 24th August 2001Aging Issues and Policy Choices inRural ChinaXiaochun Qiao, Ph.D.CarolinaPopulationCenterThe University of

14、North Carolina at Chapel Hill123 West Franklin StreetChapel Hill, NC27516-3997Phone: 919-966-7413IntroductionThe current portion of the population aged 65 and over is not as high in China (around7%) as it is in other countries around the world (Population Reference Bureau 2000).However, the sharp de

15、cline in fertility as a result of an effective family planningprogramput into practice in the early 1970s mean that acceleration of aging-related problems willoccur in this century. The speed of the fertility decline could determine the rate at whichthe problem progresses progress and the extent of

16、the resulting consequences.Because of demographic transitions beyond socioeconomicdevelopment (Wu 1992; Yu1995; Zhang 1998), the contradiction between the agestructure and socioeconomicdevelopment and institution is inevitable in China. In order to study and highlight thisissue, a research group cal

17、led the Consequences and Countermeasures of the FertilityDecline in China was established in 1993.1 Researchers focused their studies onpopulation and socioeconomic consequences and targeted the policy implications towardthe fertility decline and the change in age structure (Qiao 1996). It became cl

18、ear that lowfertility is not always better than high fertility (Gu and Mu 1994). Chinas populationproblems began shifting from problems caused by scale to problems caused by the agestructure. As a result, the most important population problem facing China in this centurywould be aging (Qiao 1994). T

19、hese problems revolve around the relationships betweendemographic and socioeconomic factors (Qiao and Mu 1995). The aging problem is aresult of socioeconomic development and institutions that do not take into account thechanges in the age structure, rather than the opposite, that is, that the age st

20、ructure itselfdoes not fit with the changes in socioeconomic development. Hence, the problems can beresolved by adjusting social and institutional factors rather than adjusting demographicfactors such as fertility, mortality, and migration (Qiao 1997). The shrinking of familysize, due to the increas

21、e of one-child families will lead to dramatic changes in thetraditional family pattern of China (Qiao 1995). The 4-2-1 family pattern2 has occurredboth in urban and rural areas (Chen 1994). Because of increased life expectancy, healthyaging has become an important issue in the aging society (Board o

22、f the Journal ofPopulation Research 1995). The key to settling the problems of aging is to establish anew institution of social security for the elderly and to address these problems sooner(Qiao 1999b). However, the institutional conversion from a planned economy to a marketeconomy will compound the

23、 difficulty of resolving the problems in the early twenty-firstcentury (Qiao 1998).Even though the general aging trend is similar in both rural and urban areas in China,because of different socioeconomic institutions, the specific aging problems are quite different. The system in urban areas is simi

24、lar to that in other countries, but thesystem inrural areas is quite different. Almost no other area in the world faces the set of agingproblems that is common in rural China. Its problems are unique and deserve specialconsiderations.The following main differences exist between rural and urban areas

25、:1. Urban residents work in enterprises and institutions and receive regular monthlyincome that is higher on average than the income earned by rural residents. In ruralareas, people earn money based on agricultural work, and this income is both lowerand unstable.2. Because rural residents were limit

26、ed by the household registration system, it isdifferent them to find employment in urban areas. Even though the situation hasgreatly improved since the economic reform and millions of people from rural areasare working in urban areas, there are still many advantageous positions restrictedfrom people

27、 in rural areas. Therefore, most people have to remain in rural areas andaccept lower pay.3. Because of the higher income in urban areas, residents also have more savings thanthat of people in rural areas. In addition, public facilities in urban areas are moreadvanced than those in rural areas, incl

28、uding communication systems, the trafficsystems, cultural activities, and health and medical systems. In rural areas, almost nosuch facilities exist.4. Retirees in urban areas can be secured by their original work enterprises orinstitutions and can receive monthly pensions, which are sufficient enou

29、gh for themto live on. These retirees do not have to worry about income in their later life orwhether they have the ability to work or not. People in rural areas have no access tothis type of financial security or retirement options. They have to build their ownsecurity. If they cannot perform physi

30、cal work, it means that they no longer have theability to support themselves. They then have to rely on other family members or thegovernment.The Aging Problem in ChinaIn general, couples independently choose the number of children they will bear, basedontheir own economic, conventional, and spiritu

31、al demands. Before they finish theirchildbearing, couples may have a clear indication that the number of children they willhave in their lifetime is suitable to their own needs and also to their childrens lives in thefuture. The people in China, for example, had an average of six children per couple

32、 in the1950s and 1960s. They knew that some of their children might die as result of the highmortality rate at that time. They also knew that they had to have enough children,especially sons, to take care of them when they got older, as well as to ensure that thefamily had its successors for next ge

33、neration. The number of children they had needed tomatch their needs both physically and spiritually. The lower the socioeconomic level, thehigher the demand was to have more children. However, due to the limitation of naturalresources and the development of the country, this high fertility rate was

34、 no longersuitable for the country, even though it was suitable to individual families. Therefore, thedemands of the country and the family appeared contradictory. In order to guarantee thedevelopment of the country and to ultimately secure the development of the family,China had to implement a fami

35、ly planning program. Because the program was driven bythe government rather than by the couples themselves, the number of children in a familymight not be suitable to the specific needs and considerations of couples. This isespecially true with regard to demand for support and care by children for t

36、heir olderparents, assuming that the socioeconomic conditions and traditions have not changedsignificantly in the period.Before the family planning program began, the number of births for each couple averagedsix. Starting in the early 1970s, China began to universally implement a family planningprog

37、ram. Initially, the policy-required number of birth for couples was approximately two. Despite the fact that this limit was not strictly enforced, the decline in fertility wasstill drastic. Within only 10 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 5.81 in1970 to 2.24 in 1980 (see Figure 1)

38、. In 1980, the government adopted a new policy,requiring people in both urban and rural areas to have no more than one child.Figure 1. Trend of TFR, 1970-1998012345671971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998Source: TFR before 1990 comes from Yao Xinwu and Yin Hua: Basic Data of China'sPo

39、pulation, China Population Press, 1994, p.144; TFR after 1990 was estimated from CBR,from the China Statistical Yearbook 1999.Because it was hard for people in rural areas to universally accept the one-child policy, apolicy adjustment was made in 1984 allowing couples to have a second child if their

40、 firstwas a girl; otherwise, the one-child policy remained in effect in urban areas. The newpolicy caused the TFR to fluctuate without any significant decrease in the 1980s. Theestimate from the 1990 population census data shows that the TFR was 2.31. Since then,the fertility rate dropped quickly an

41、d unexpectedly. In 1998, the TFR decreased to 1.76,estimated according to the crude birth rate (CBR) published by the State StatisticsBureau.3 In brief, over 30-year period, the TFR has decreased 70% (the equivalence offour children) from 1970 to 1998. During this same time period, the life expectan

42、cy atbirth had increased as well, from 64 years to 70 years.Declines in fertility and mortality ultimately determine the change of age structure, or theproportion of the elderly population. The rapidly changing fertility in China presages asubsequent change in age structure. The portion of the popul

43、ation aged 65 and over wasonly 4.92% in 1982 and reached 5.58% in 1990. During this period, the decrease in birthrate produced little impact on the total population. The increase of the proportion ofelderly would be smooth at the first stage of the aging process (see Figure 2). As thedecrease in the

44、 birth rate was sustained, the impact of the number of births on the totalpopulation would be significant; that is, the portion of the population aged 65 and overwould be accelerated. From the change in proportion, we predict that acceleration willbegin around 2010 and will end around 2040. This mea

45、ns that the fastest increase in theproportion of elderly in China will occur between 2010 and 2040 (Qiao, 2001). After2040, the elderly population will level out. This means that Chinas serious agingproblems will begin soon, within the next 10 years.Aging, or the change in the age structure, becomes

46、 problematic when we take intoaccount its context in a socioeconomic and institutional framework. Even though aging isa inevitable process, socioeconomic development that directly brings about transitions ordecreases in fertility and mortality may cause age-related problems that are different fromco

47、untry to country and area to area in terms of the speed of aging, the social andtraditional convention, the economic power, and socioeconomic institution.The Needs for Support of the Elderly by Children in Rural AreasThe situation between rural and urban areas is quite different in China. In urban a

48、reas,most people work in an enterprise or institution where a pension is available when theyretire. According to a 1992 survey (China Research Center on Aging 1994), 73.73% ofthe elderly were involved in pension-available institutions in urban areas. But in ruralareas, only 5.88% of the elderly coul

49、d get pensions when they retired, and 94% did notbelong to any institution and had no pension available for retirement.Therefore, peoplein rural areas work until they lose their physical ability to perform labor work ,unlikepeople in urban areas who have to retire at a fixed age.How do those elderly

50、 in rural areas who have no pension live without any income whenthey lose their ability to work? There are two possible resources: their own savings andsupport from their children. Do they have enough savings to live on in their old age?According to a 1992 survey, only 13.77% of elderly in rural are

51、as had savings in banks,and nearly 84% had no savings at all. How do the elderly without savings live?According to social convention, the elderly must depend on their children, who expect toprovide support and care for their aging parents.In order to discern the extent to which elderly parents had been financially supported bytheir children, we can compare the parents receipts from their personal earnings t