财务报表分析与证券投资研究报告(powerpoint 48页)

1、财务报表分析与证券投资Guohua JiangAssociate Professor of AccountingGuanghua School of ManagementPeking University1第一页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。The Father of Accounting-Luca Pacioli (1445-1517)nHe wrote a famous mathematics booknIn one chapter he invented double-entry accounting systemnHe taught Leonardo Da Vinci perspect

2、ive and proportionality. The knowledge was used to paint “the Last Supper”2第二页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。n学过财务报表分析课程的请举手3第三页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Dow Jones Industrial Average 1930-20024第四页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。DJIA, NASDAQ 1990-2002020004000600080001000012000140005第五页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Back to Square One: DJIA 1998-2002750080008

3、5009000950010000105001100011500120006第六页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。D or Dot.bomb-NASDAQ 1998-20020100020003000400050007第七页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。The Three Major Stock Exchanges0500010000150002000025000NYSEAMEXNASDAQUS#of listedfFirmsMarket Cap.Billions8第八页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。The Regulator of U.S. Stock MarketnSEC, the Secur

4、ities and Exchange CommissionnArthur Levitt, commissioner, 1993-2000 in the Clinton administrationnNumbers Game Speech, 19989第九页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。The Current SEC Commissioners 10第十页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Who Issue American Accounting Standards?nFASB: Financial Accounting Standards BoardSet up in 1973 to replac

5、e Accounting Principle Board (APB)An independent, private organizationStandards issued recognized by SECnGAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Standards7 concept statements (principles)e.g., No. 7 (February 2000) Using cash flow information and present value in accounting measurements148 statements of

6、 standards (rules) by the year of 2003e.g., No. 1 (December 1973) Disclosure of foreign currency translation information11第十一页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。International Accounting StandardsInternational Accounting Standards Committee (IASC)Based at LondonIndependent and privately fundedMeant to design a set of wo

7、rldly accepted accounting standardsCommittee serve as an advisory board memberInternational Accounting Standards41 standards up to the year of 2003e.g., IAS 2. Inventory, January 1, 199512第十二页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。“Big Four” International Accounting FirmsnErnst Young (worldwide revenue 2002: $10.1 billions

8、, 4.3 billions in the U.S.)nPriceWaterhouseCoopersnDeloitte & TouchenKPMG13第十三页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会 (Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission)14第十四页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Number of Stocks8145318329132353074585194710861154122312851373020040060080010001200140016001990199119921993199419951996199

9、71998199920002001200220032004Number of Stocks at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges15第十五页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Amount of Capital Raised020406080100120140160199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Billion RMBAmount of Capital Raised Through Stock Markets16第十六页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Market Cap

10、. (A Share)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Billion RMBMarket Capitalization17第十七页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Market Size relative to NYSE2004-12-31NYSESH+SZNo. of Stocks27471373Market Cap (billion USD)1960045318第十八页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Shanghai A Shar

11、e Index050010001500200025002-Jan-9128-Oct-9120-Aug-9215-Jun-9311-Apr-948-Feb-9530-Nov-958-Oct-9615-Aug-9725-Jun-986-May-9917-Mar-0018-Jan-014-Dec-0124-Oct-022-Sep-0315-Jul-04Market Performance19第十九页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Profitability of Chinese Listed Firms: 1992-200420第二十页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。ROE21第二十一页，编辑于星期二：

12、二点 十三分。 Stock Market Capitalization/GDP(%) Nation198019901999Nation198019901999Argentina0.110.15Italy0.070.0130.68Australia0.380.371.13Japan0.331.640.95Austria0.030.170.17Netherlands3Belgium0.090.310.82Norway0.540.230.7Brazil0.050.080.45SouthAfrica1.231.331.2Canada0.461.221.22Spain0.170.41

13、0.69Chile0.340.51.05Sweden0.110.371.77Egypt0.010.060.29Swissland0.441.933.23France0.090.241.17U.K.0.380.812.25Germany0.090.20.67U.S.0.460.541.52India0.050.160.4622第二十二页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Share types in ChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegal personStateA shareB shareH, N, S, Share23第二十三页，编

14、辑于星期二：二点 十三分。24第二十四页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Share Structures of Chinese Listed Companies (December, 2001)Non-tradable (0.1 billion shares):State Shares 2410.61 46.20Domestic Legal Person Shares 663.17 12.71Other non-tradable Shares 331.07 6.4%Total non-tradable 3404.85 65.25Tradable:A Shares 1318.13 25.26% B

15、 Shares 163.09 3.13% H/N and other shares 331.94 6.36%Total Tradable: 1813.16 34.75%Total: 5218.01 100%25第二十五页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Large Shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/TunnelingAn Example, Jiang, Lee and Yue, (2005)26第二十六页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。序号合格境外机构投资者（QFII）名称1瑞士银行有限公司 （UBS Limited）2野村证券株式

16、会社 （Nomura Securities Co., Ltd）3花旗环球金融有限公司 （Citigroup Global Markets Limited）4摩根士丹利国际有限公司 （Morgan Stanley & International Limited）5高盛公司 （Goldman Sachs & Co.）6香港上海汇丰银行有限公司 （The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited）7德意志银行 （Deutsche Bank AG）8荷兰商业银行（ING Bank N.V.）9摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Ch

17、ase Bank）10瑞士信贷第一波士顿（香港）有限公司（Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong) Limited）11日兴资产管理公司（Nikko Asset Management Co., Ltd）12渣打银行香港分行（Standard Chartered Bank Hong Kong）13恒生银行有限公司（Hang Seng Bank Limited）14大和证券SMBC株式会社（Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.,Ltd）15美林国际（Merrill Lynch International）16雷曼兄弟国际（欧洲）公司（Lehman

18、Brithers International Europe）17比尔盖茨-美林达基金（Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation）18荷兰银行（ABN AMRO Bank N.V.）19法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）20巴克莱银行（Barclays Bank PLC）21法国巴黎银行（BNP Parisbas）22德国德雷斯顿银行（Dresdner Bank Aktiengesellschaft）23富通银行（Fortis Bank）24加拿大鲍尔集团（Power Corporation of Canada）25东方汇理银行（CALYON S.A.

19、）26景顺资产管理公司（INVESCO Asset Management Limited）27第二十七页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Chinas Stock Market: A ten-year perspectiveFrom zero to an important emerging capital marketFirst developed fast, then became stagnant:Fewer new listingsMarket index downRaises less capitalLess trading activitiesListed companies perf

20、ormed worseOverall Less important in the booming economy!28第二十八页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。The Users of financial statementsnEquity investorsnCreditorsnGovernmentnCustomernSuppliersnLabor union29第二十九页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。课程结构第一节 会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节 会计报表回顾-资产负债表第三节 会计报表回顾-损益表第四节 会计报表回顾-现金流量表第五节 赢余管理与赢余质量第六节 赢利能力分析第七节 赢利预测第

21、八节 风险分析第九节 证券价值评估30第三十页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Perspectives of This CoursenA security analysts perspectivenEmphasize two issues: Earnings Management and valuation31第三十一页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Earnings Management: Rao, Teoh, Wong, Review of Accounting Studies, 199832第三十二页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Earnings Restatements Min Wu, H

22、KUST33第三十三页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。34第三十四页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。35第三十五页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Widespread Earnings Manipulation (Jiang and Wang 2005)36第三十六页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Accounting-based ValuationnWho are my peers? Earnings multiples, book-value multiples, sales multiplesnEVA, Economic value added, Residual income valuatio

23、n (RIV), Edward, Bell, Ohlson Model (EBO)nIn one word, Share value = f (earnings, book value, dividend, cash flow, etc.)37第三十七页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Accounting-based Valuation-2nUltimately, we do valuation to earn higher returns on stock trading.nWe get an intrinsic value number, compare it to prevailing s

24、tock price, if our value estimate is higher than price, we buy; otherwise we sell. nFrankel and Lee, Journal of Finance, 1999To get papers mentioned, from a PKU computer, go to or just ask from me.38第三十八页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。How Important is Accounting Information?nJanuary 22, 2003, after market closed, A

25、T&T (stock symbol T) announced:Revenue for 4th quarter shrank to $9.3 billion from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous yearLoss from continuing operations widened to $611 million from $216 million.39第三十九页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。How Important is Accounting Information? (http:)40第四十页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。

26、How Important is Accounting Information?nIn the weekend before Monday, Feb. 3, 2003, Mattel (MAT) announced fourth quarter results: nRevenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9% to $1.56 billion. nNet income increased by 35% to $186.1 million.nEarnings per share (EPS) increased t

27、o 42 cents from 31 cents.41第四十一页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。How Important is Accounting Information?42第四十二页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Value Investing: Warren Buffett ()43第四十三页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Investing MottoTwo friends went hunting in the jungle. All of a sudden, a bear jumped out of nowhere and came after them. A: Run!B: No,

28、 it is hopeless, we wont overrun a bear. A: But I do not have to run faster than the bear. I only need to run faster than you!44第四十四页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。Questions on stock market?45第四十五页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。作业n六人一组n两个作业n每次课上分别布置作业，下次课上交，打印版n注意报告的形象美46第四十六页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。作业1：n每组选一家中国上市公司做投资价值分析（非金融类公司）n使用该公司行业平均数据做比较，比如，行业平均利润率；或对比公司数据n使用最新年报n参见所附宇通客车公司分析报告47第四十七页，编辑于星期二：二点 十三分。作业2：nExcel股票定价建模n和本课程一一对应n用不同的spreadsheet录入三大报表（最好有5年的）、发现赢余操纵、进行赢利分析、风险分析、赢利预测、建立价值模型n和作业1使用同一家公司nSpr