凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》（ppt）

1、Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 2Goals of this module Lay out a systematic approach to solving business pr

2、oblems “Structured Problem Solving ” Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teams Practice the suggested process on a real-life exampleConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis G

3、eneration, Author / 3Strategy is about thriving in a changing world“The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen . . . The worlds climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.”Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini

4、 - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 4 which is all about “decision making” “Strategy is about making decisions” The best strategy “makers” are able to blend analytic techniques with an understanding of the future uncertainties and simple

5、good luck Based on often imperfect information they make decisions and then drive implementationConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 5There are two basic approaches

6、to problem solving; but both can workThe “theres a pony in here somewhere” approachThe structured analytic approachPotentialfor richpowerfulsolutionsScurry around analyzing tons of data to see if you can find something usefulGet the dataPotential forgood (and mixed) solutionsDefineproblemandhypothes

7、esConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 6Defining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to I

8、mplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction

9、 and structure for the analysisConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 7Hypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesD

10、efine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells us

11、Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysisConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 8Hypotheses are developed in three steps What are the real strat

12、egic issues? What is the impact on the organisation? What are the priorities? We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . . A series of statements, not yet backed by data Based on initial data search or expert opinionsA n

13、umber of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products? Direct channels are growing Retailers have a strong channel and brand There are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulti

14、ng Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Auth

15、or / 9A hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it: What is the issue? What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage? What do you think causes the is

16、sue? What are the key drivers of the process? What is the impact of the issue? How can we tell there is an opportunity? Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.”“due to.”“resultingin.”Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured P

17、roblem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 10The Structured Problem Solving Process covers the life cycle of a consulting engagement Define the Problem Structure the Problem Develop a Hypothesis Execute the Analysis Develop a Recommendation Create the Communication Deliver Communication Foll

18、ow Up with ClientCovered in current moduleCovered later in the weekConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 11The Basics - Problem Solving ApproachConsulting Skills Work

19、shophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 12DEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of question

20、s Is there a problem or opportunity? If so where does it lie? Why does it exist? What could we do about it? What should we do about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this.Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and

21、 Hypothesis Generation, Author / 13Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Always ask: “Are they Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive (MECE)?”Logical pyramids are basic tools for this approach, helping you to define, structure and solve the clients problem 1.Ideas at any level in

22、 the pyramid must always be summaries of the ideas grouped below them2.Ideas in each grouping must always be the same kind of idea, and they must answer the same question implied by their summary3.Ideas in each grouping must always be in a logical order:MainAssertionKey Line Deductively or inductive

23、ly Trace course or time order Divide or structural order (e.g., Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing, etc.) Classify or degree order (e.g., most important, 2nd most important, etc.)Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Prob

24、lem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 14Logical pyramids increase the effectiveness of problem solving, results delivery and communication Vertical structure Horizontal structure Key line / narrativebut help ensure thoroughanalysiswhile decreasingcomplexityand increasing the powerof presen

25、tations Logical pyramids have simple rules The effectiveness of our work depends heavily on how compellingly we can argue that the solution we put forward serves the client best The reasoning we have to apply to come to our solution is complex and difficult to summarize for brief client interactions

26、 To build succinct and compelling presentations of our work, we use logical pyramids as the preferred communication style: Pyramids make information more memorable and meaningful They lead to a clearer definition of the problems we solve They structure our solutions to these problems and make them m

27、ore compellingSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.which will make your work/life much easier to handleConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 15Define and St

28、ructure the ProblemConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 16“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” -AnonymousWhy problem definition matt

29、ersConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 17In structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car Mar

30、ketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not work?Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 18Mutually E

31、xclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you imposeConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 19DivideClarifyDiagnosticFrameworkCau

32、se EffectFrameworkStructuralFrameworkProblem StructureTo help you solve a problem, your structure must:Disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve componentsBe a “MECE” description of the problem and its possible solutionsTrace CauseThere are three ways to structure a business problemS

33、ource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 20HeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress, TensionHypochondriaBumped, Bruise

34、d HeadAllergiesBad Weather, Sinus Headache, Flu, ColdBrain TumorWater on the BrainExample 1 disaggregate the problem into a diagnostic solution treeSCooPSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/

35、yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 21Store is withinshopping radiusdo not know about the storeknow about the storenever visit the storeenter the storedo not buymake a purchasedo not come backmake repeat purchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage, CIConversionCustomer Va

36、lueRoot CauseExample 2 (trace cause) disaggregate the problem into a cause-effect framework How can TESCO improve its sales productivity (sales/sq.ft.)?Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothes

37、is Generation, Author / 22AccounttypePack sizeREPURCHASETarget market persuaded to repurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrand madeavailable?TRIALTarget market induced to try?AWARENESSTarget marketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyof useOccasionof useConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotio

38、ntuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIf all lines of inquiry fail to reveal a problem source, go back to consider whether target market and consumer benefit have been accurately defined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspending rateMediamixRegional weightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmark

39、etConsumerbenefitRegionSales forcecoverageSales forcedirectionTradetermsExample 3 disaggregate the problem into an intrinsic structure Why does Wimpys not show the anticipated financial performance?ChannelSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITI

40、ONINGBrand properly positioned for themarket?Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 23Exercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*Mart: define and structure Kmarts business problem Situa

41、tionKmart and Wal*Mart operate similar chains of Full line Discount storesDifferent pricing strategies: Kmart follows a promotional pricing strategy of weekly sales, offering discounts on selected items, Wal*Mart follows an EDLP strategy (EDLP = Every Day Low Prices); Kmarts regular prices are highe

42、r than Wal*Marts, its sales prices are lowerWal*Mart has a better price perception than KmartKmart has a higher GM than Wal*Mart (23% vs. 21%)Kmart has significantly higher SG&A as percent of sales, which eliminate Kmarts Gross Margin advantage over Wal*MartWal*Marts scale advantage is not drive

43、n by the number of stores, but by its sales per store (better sales per square foot)Kmart has significantly lower sales per square foot sales than Wal*Mart ($170 vs $250). With Wal*Marts sales productivity, Kmart would be about as profitable as Wal*Mart ComplicationKmart is operating at break-even,

44、and Wal*Marts aggressive expansion puts more and more of Kmarts stores into direct competition with Wal*Mart, decreasing their store contribution and Kmarts overall profitability Question?Structure Kmarts problem to help its management devise a solution, including identifying the key question that o

45、ur study must answerConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 24Exercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: first step is to logically organize the factsCompanyCompet

46、itorCustomerHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalM

47、art prices better than KmartConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 25Exercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: second step is to iterate to drive insight creatio

48、nAlthough Kmarts Hi/Lo pricing strategy leads to high GM, high SG&A has led to eroding sales productivityHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher

49、than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than KmartWalMart is aggressively expanding, with highly productive stores and a different pricing strategy than KMartCustomers perceive WalMart delivers higher value in some areasHow c

50、an Kmart improve its sales productivity (sales / sq. ft.)?Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 26Exercise 4 summary performance data for a credit card issuer whats t

51、he problem?Note: All figures in 1000s. Assume no priceinflation and that interest rates have remained constantThe 80/20 Rule 80% of the answer is in 20% of the dataOften we miss the goldmine because we are busy trying to value the shack built on top of it This data, taken from a real client (but reb

52、ased,) tells the whole sorry story of their strategic problem in one picture Heading19981999 ChangeMarket PerformanceNo of Customers1,000 1,100 10%Number of Transactions50,000 52,000 4%Value of Transactions1,000,000 1,050,000 5%New Customers Added100 200 100%IncomeInterest Payments100,000 90,000 -10

53、%Subscription Fees50,000 75,000 50%Transaction Fees100,000 105,000 5%Total250,000 270,000 8%ExpenditureOperational Costs55,000 55,000 0%Marketing and Sales10,000 13,000 30%Overhead25,000 25,000 0%Total90,000 93,000 3%Provision for Bad Debt10,000 20,000 100%Net Income150,000 157,000 5%Consulting Skil

54、ls Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 27Exercise 5 using a “quick and dirty” approach can produce surprisingly accurate results 30 million? 300 million? 3 billion? 30 billion? 300 b

55、illion?How Many (Retail) Litres of Petrol Are Sold in France Per Year?Data: French Population 60 million. 1 Gallon = 3.8 Litres Consulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author /

56、28Develop a HypothesisConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 29Explicitly ties your analysis to your problem definitionWhy hypotheses matterThey keep your effortHelps

57、define the level of accuracy that mattersEnsures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubtAllows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm our belief in the hypothesis, will we be able to act on it?”Keeps you efficientOn targetA

58、ccurateMinimalActionableOn TimeConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 30Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.1. Rule2. Case3. ResultRuleCaseResultIf we put t

59、he price too high, sales will go downWe have put prices too highTherefore, sales will go downCaseResultRuleWe have put prices upSales have gone downSales have gone down because the price is too highSales have gone downSales go down when prices are too highProbably we have put prices too highHypothes

60、isResultRuleCaseAbduction is a variation on deductive and inductive reasoning and a powerful tool to develop hypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1. Case2. Result3. Rule1. Result2. Rule3. CaseConsulting Skills Workshophttp:/ (海量营销管理培训资料下载海量营销管理培训资料下载) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Proble