水晶球软件使用CrystalBall学习教案

1、会计学1水晶球软件水晶球软件(run jin)使用使用CrystalBall第一页，共29页。2第1页/共30页第二页，共29页。then ignore real-life complicationsFind a way to obtain an approximate solution to real-world problems3第2页/共30页第三页，共29页。4第3页/共30页第四页，共29页。5第4页/共30页第五页，共29页。6第5页/共30页第六页，共29页。7第6页/共30页第七页，共29页。8第7页/共30页第八页，共29页。9第8页/共30页第九页，共29页。worst c

2、asebest caseworst casebest caseworst casebest caseworst casebest case10第9页/共30页第十页，共29页。11第10页/共30页第十一页，共29页。12第11页/共30页第十二页，共29页。13第12页/共30页第十三页，共29页。14第13页/共30页第十四页，共29页。15第14页/共30页第十五页，共29页。16第15页/共30页第十六页，共29页。Click Define Assumption iconSelect distributionSpecify parameters17第16页/共30页第十七页，共29页。

3、1818第17页/共30页第十八页，共29页。19第18页/共30页第十九页，共29页。Define MenuRun MenuAnalyze MenuCrystal Ball Toolbar20第19页/共30页第二十页，共29页。21第20页/共30页第二十一页，共29页。The first step to using Crystal Ball is to determine which model inputs are uncertain. Which values are estimates? Which are averages? Once you have identified th

4、ese, you use your knowledge of the uncertainty around the input to create a probability distribution for that cell (what Crystal Ball calls an assumption). Crystal Ball lets you define these distributions using the Distribution Gallery22第21页/共30页第二十二页，共29页。23第22页/共30页第二十三页，共29页。The next step is to i

5、dentify a forecast. A forecast is a formula cell that you want to measure and analyze. In this model, you select the Net Profit (cell C23). 24第23页/共30页第二十四页，共29页。Number of simulation trials performedDisplay rangeCertainty (probability) that the forecast will reach $2,812,558Parts within the spec lim

6、its are shown in blue, parts outside spec limits are shown redNumber of data points displayed in the chartlCrystal Ball uses Monte Carlo simulation to randomly generate thousands of what-if scenarioslEach scenario is then captured and presented in a frequency chart (Forecast Chart)25第24页/共30页第二十五页，共

7、29页。Whats responsible for most of the variation in the forecast?The sensitivity chart shows the influence each assumption cell has on the forecast. 26第25页/共30页第二十六页，共29页。ReportsSelect a pre-defined report or create your own custom report. Reports now include new statistics and more control over data and charts. Extract DataYou can extract data from both forecasts and