波士顿互联网战略资料PPT课件

1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter StangerRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmE-COMMERCE IS DEAD “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce”- The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”- F, April 2000 “Can you build a

2、 brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”- Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead

3、 the public markets have ever seen.”- Warren Packard, Draper Fisher JurvetsonRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems “If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will sur

4、vive. They are all gone.”RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG020406080100120Peak Market CapCurrent Market CapTravelocityBExpediaDEPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4B020406080100120Peak Market CapCurrent Market Cap020406080100120Peak Market CapCurrent

5、 Market CapRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860 - 18901895 - 1925RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmFUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cotton

6、England 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs . with increased throughput .Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of con

7、nectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ ncValue, costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs .$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize (GB)Cost ($/MB)0.000.200.400.600.801.001995199619971

8、998199920002001200220030255075100RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmLONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/intercon

9、nectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters incr

10、easingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T, MCI and Sprint fragmented radical

11、lyMicroprocessors, integrated circuits, memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing, sales, and distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSupers

12、toresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM , Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge power plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services fo

13、r the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power (UK)Electrobel (Belgium)RWE (Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling (Norway)EnronUnited Utilities (UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity (UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en (Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft (Norway)Oslo Energi (Norway)EVO (Germany)IVO (Finland)MANY INDUST

14、RIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmMASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper, chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/ enlargeStore/ display Share with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Koda

15、k and Fuji dominateMajor players (2000 U.S. market share) Canon Nikon Olympus Minolta Kodak Fuji Kodak (66%) Fuji Kodak (Qualex) (40%) Fuji Photohuts Album manufacturers Frame manufacturers Mail servicesdisposablesCameraManipulation Crop Alter pixelsPrinterPaper, inkReprint/ enlargeStore/displayShar

16、e with othersProcessing (at home)Digital value chain HP, Sony and others well-positionedMajor players (2000 U.S. market share) Sony (35%) HP (19%) Olympus (13%) Kodak (12%) HP (70%) Lexmark Epson HP Lexmark Epson Kodak PC IBM microdrive Sony Compact Flash E-mail posting Personal Web site Zing Shutte

17、rfly Snapfish Ofoto Others Adobe (Photoshop) Standard with camera and available free onlineRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm0102030405060701998199920002001ProjectionEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0, S surveys conducted b

18、y The Boston Consulting Group; SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reportsNote: Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues ($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10% share in several categoriesRealTec

19、h Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmCATALOGUERS ARE WINNING-6713-44-94-3612-15-181-200-150-100-50050100Web-BasedRetailersStore BasedRetailersCatalog BasedRetailersAll Companies EBIT Margin in % of Revenues19992000Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; S Surveys conducted by The Boston Consul

20、ting GroupRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE, Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecomRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmRENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth = valueProfitable growth = valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantageRealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-l