报废飞机监测：净退役率持续降低

1、COREEquity Research5 February 2019INDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Aerospace & DefensePOSITIVEUnchangedU.S. Aerospace & DefenseDavid Strauss + 1 212 526 5580 BCI, USMatt Akers, CFA + 1 212 526 9019 BCI, USKate Copouls, CPA + 1 212 526 3283 BCI, US* BARCLAYSParked & Scrapped Aircraft MonitorNet Retirements Contin

2、ue to Run Low as Park Returns Nearly Offset ScrapsWe track commercial aircraft retirements (parks plus scraps) to estimate replacement demand as part of our supply-demand analysis and to monitor fleet dynamics that affect the aftermarket.Parks 16% lower YOY: We count 1,987 parked commercial aircraft

3、 in December, 2% lower from November, and 16% lower YOY including 14% lower for parked narrowbodies, 16% lower for widebodies and 18% lower for regional jets (all YOY). We estimate that 7% of the installed base is now parked, much lower than the last several years as aircraft have continued to retur

4、n from the park amid fleet growth. Mid-life aircraft (aged 11-20 years old) in particular have recently returned from the park and account for 1/2 of the drawdown. Historically, periods that have seen a drawdown in mid-lifeaircraft from storage have correlated with strong aftermarket growth.Fewer pa

5、rked RR 787s: Parked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issuedin April. We count 25 parked Trent 787s (8% of the fleet),20 below the peak in October. These aircraft are presumably parked pending inspection by

6、 Rolls-Royce.Scraps in line with historical average, forecasting slight increase: We count 673 scrapped commercial aircraft overthe last 12 months, 8% higherfrom the prior 12 months and equivalent to 2.4% of the installed base. We estimate adjusted scraps are running at 2.8% (adjusted higherforexpec

7、ted scraps reported afterthefact), roughly in line with the historical average. As high levels of aircraft produced in the late 1990s/early 2000s begin to age into retirement, we forecast scraps increasing to 3% (on units) overthe next several years, including widebodies at 3-4% and narrowbodies at

8、2-3%.Net retirements low: Combining scraps and net parks, we estimate that 300 aircraft have left the active fleet overthe past 12 months, equivalent to just 1.1% of the installed base, including 673 scrapped aircraft offset by 373 aircraft returning from the park. This is much lower compared to the

9、 normal 2-4%, primarily driven by aircraft returning from the park. Narrowbody removals are running at 1.3% of installed base, while widebody removals declined to 1.3% this month, both driven by aircraft returning from thepark.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do b

10、usiness with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may have a conflict of interestthat could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors shouldconsiderthisreportasonly a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST

11、CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 25.FIGURE 21Parked In Production Fleetm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18 change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-177379298-6-6%8756%1%1%737 MAX945125%5480%3%7%747676523%101-34-34%16%22%7675257-5-9%67-15-22%7%9%7777477-3-4%84-10-12

12、%5%6%7873640-4-10%1323177%5%2%A2201100%100%2%3%A320 Family191204-13-6%284-93-33%3%4%A320neoFamily2420420%321700%4%1%A330605559%72-12-17%4%6%A35074375%5240%3%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%E170/175222200%28-6-21%3%4%E190/195424112%44-2-5%6%6%CRJ7003334-1-3%201365%11%6%CRJ900222200%15747%5%4%CRJ10001100%2-1-50

13、%2%3%Total735747-12-2%837-102-12%3%4%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 92 parked 737 NGs in December, 6% lower from the prior month, but 6% higher from the prioryear.FIGURE 22Historical Parked - 737 NGs120 n100 -80 -60 -40 -76831910590 87 924638 一3i 36 2!FIGURE 23Recent Parked - 73

14、7 NGs120-| cc 96 97100 92 go ,:llll20 znS6 a60京a80京aNo京a二 Ra916 aSEaJa寸Ea26 a98 98 92| I stjo 81,8-s 8T6M 81m 87un SAPW s,d0NSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 191 parked A320ceosin December, 6% lower from the prior month, and 33% lower from

15、the prior year.Historical Parked - A320ceosRecent Parked - A320ceos300 250 -200 -150 -100 -50 -300 250 -200 -150 -100 -50 -180 176 I1183 185284350n300-250-200 -150-100-50 -284 289 292249.224I 186 154133 1281358E3 ZEa9E3SEa寸EacnE aZEaHa0Ea6?3(ua80京aSON 8Z0 8LS-S 8T6n4 s，un( 8工线 8Lda 81-sll 二6 aSource

16、: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchOf the 735 total parked in-production aircraft, we count 198 (27%) that are 10 years old or younger, including 87 (12%) that are five years or younger. For parked in-production narr

17、owbodies, we estimate 96 (30%) are 10 years old or younger, including 44 (14%) that are five years or younger.250FIGURE 27Age Distribution of Parked In-Production Narrowbodiesuo43onpodp(DlBdFIGURE 26Age Distribution of Parked In-Production A/C15010050002468 10 12 14 16 18 20+Source: FlightGlobaland

18、Barclays Research504003o15cumu-at-veSource: Flight Global and Barclays Research0000cumu-at-veParked - by Age ClassWeestimatethat30% of parked aircraft are aged 15 years or younger, equivalent to 593 aircraft, which we think are likely to come back into service.FIGURE 28Parked FleetSource: FlightGlob

19、aland Barclays ResearchFIGURE 29Parked Fleet - Last YearSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchThe number of relatively young parked aircraft (15 years or younger) was roughly unchanged sequentially and 22% lowerYOY. We estimate that roughly 4% of 0-15 year aircraft are currently in storage.FIGU

20、RE 30Parked Fleet - By AgeHistorical Parked - Young (0-15yr) AircraftRecent Parked - Young (0-15yr) Aircraft900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -0 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -0 -291900 n800-700-600-500 -400-300 -200-100-二京a916 aT6 a寸EaSEaZEa二京as总 a60总a 80京aN06 a756 749 772

21、73i 710653587 562 553 571OOAIruoo三 1ooIda;s604 592 593a LdQcSSON- 8ZOSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17chang

22、e% changeDec-18Dec-170-5103911213%110-7-6%2%2%6-10157168-11-7%220-63-29%3%4%11-1533333300%426-93-22%12%15%16-20545564-19-3%645-100-16%17%22%20-25321329-8-2%440-119-27%23%33%26-30291303-12-4%295-4-1%32%31%30+237238-10%224136%19%16%Total1,9872,026-39-2%2z360-373-16%10%12%Young (0-15)59359210%756-163-2

23、2%4%6%Mid-life aircraft (aged 11-20) in particular have returned from the park over the last year (- 18%).FIGURE 34Change in Parked Aircra什 By Age - YOYSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3315%nw-15%nw-8% -7%-10%0-56-10 11-15 16-20 20-25 26-3030+Change in Parked Aircraft By Age - Seque

24、ntialSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchParked - by Manufacturer and ModelWe count 964 parked Boeing aircraft in December, 2% lower sequentially and 12% lower YOY.FIGURE 35Parked Fleet - Boeingm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18 change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-177076600%7-1-14%

25、21%23%7173300%7-4-57%2%5%720000n/a00n/an/an/a7274243-1-2%4112%40%37%737375389-14-4%410-35-9%5%6%737 MAX945125%5480%3%7%747807911%123-43-35%14%20%乃7747223%109-35-32%10%14%7677479-5-6%88-14-16%9%11%7777477-3-4%84-10-12%5%6%7873640-4-10%1323177%5%2%DC-8910-1-10%10-1-10%64%71%DC-91112-1-8%12-1-8%26%26%D

26、C-107700%5240%15%10%MD-80158159-1-1%165-7-4%39%34%MD-90000n/a00n/a0%0%MD-116600%13-7-54%5%10%Total964986-22-2%1,092-128-12%7%8%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 376 parked Airbus aircraft in December, 2% lower sequentially, and 22% lower YOY.Parked Fleet - AirbusSource: Flight Glob

27、al and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet IDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17 |A2201100%100%2%3%A300111100%14-3-21%5%6%A3101115-4-27%15-4-27%18%23%A3182200%3-1-33%5%7%A320 Family192205-13-6%285-93-33%3%4%A320neo Family2420420%321700%4%1%A330605559%72-12-17%4%6%A330n

28、eo000n/a00n/an/an/aA3406667-1-1%78-12-15%29%32%A35074375%5240%3%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%Total376382-6-2%482-106-22%4%5%We count 274 parked Bombardier aircraft in December, 1% higher sequentially, but 4% lower YOY.Parked Fleet - BombardierSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet%

29、fleetDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17CRJ100/20021821442%247-29-12%29%32%CRJ7003334-1-3%201365%11%6%CRJ900222200%15747%5%4%CRJ10001100%2-1-50%2%3%Total27427131%284-10-4%17%18%We count 265 parked Embraer aircraft in December, 3% lowersequentially, and 25% lower YOY.Parked Fl

30、eet - EmbraerSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet |Dec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17 change % changeDec-18Dec-17 IERJ-135/140/145201210-9-4%283-82-29%24%34%E170/175222200%28-6-21%3%4%E190/195424112%44-2-5%6%6%Total265273-8-3%355-90-25%12%16%Parked - by Engine TypeThe

31、 YOY reduction in parked aircraft has been spread among engine manufacturers led by CFM on fewer parked aircraft with CFM 56 engines.Parked Fleet - By Enginem/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet |Dec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17V25007688-12-14%91-15-16%2%3%PW1000G1412217%311367%4%2%P

32、W4000929200%145-53-37%11%17%PW60002200%3-1-33%22%27%JT9D171700%26-9-35%34%46%PW2000141400%19-5-26%5%7%JT8D241246-5-2%251-10-4%36%33%JT3D78-1-13%9-2-22%23%28%JT4A000n/a00n/an/an/aPW3009900%10-1-10%18%19%Total Pratt & Whitney472488-163%557-85-15%9%10%Trent146147-1-1%1311511%8%8%RB.163 Spey2200%200%15%

33、14%RB.80Conway000n/a00n/an/an/aRB211787623%108-30-28%14%18%BR7003300%7-4-57%2%5%RB.183 Tay3944-5-11%64-25-39%22%33%AE3007201210-9-4%283-82-29%24%34%M45H000n/a00n/an/an/aTotal Rolls-Royce469482-13-3%595-126-21%13%18%LEAP2013754%614233%3%3%CFM56489503-14-3%608-119-20%4%5%Total CFM International509516-

34、71%614-105-17%4%5%CF6 Family97106-9-8%131-34-26%7%9%GEnx1412217%8675%2%2%GE90373613%3439%3%3%CF3433833441%356-18-5%11%12%Total GE486488-20%529-43-8%8%9%Other5152-1-2%65-14-22%16%20%Total1,9872,026-39-2%2z360-373-16%7%9%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchParked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered

35、787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issued in April. We now count 25 parked Trent 787s (8% ofthe fleet), 20 below the peak in October. These aircraft are presumably parked pending inspection by Rolls-Royce.ii1iA三n6d三cWSParkedTrent787s % ofF

36、leetSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchParked - by RegionWe estimate that North American operators account for the largest proportion of the parked fleet (38%), followed by Europe (21%) and Asia (17%).FIGURE 41Parked Fleet7%Source: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchFIGURE 42Parked Fleet - Las

37、t Year6%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe estimate that 9% of the North American fleet is currently in storage, compared to Europe at 6% and Asia at 4%, Over the past year, aircraft have returned from the park in all regions except for Latin America.Parked Fleet - By Regionm/mm/my/yy/y%

38、fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17Africa16816264%169-1-1%16%17%Asia Pacific336344-8-2%347-11-3%4%4%Europe419449-30-7%577-158-27%6%9%Latin America144147-3-2%133118%8%8%MiddleEast164167-3-2%180-16-9%10%11%North America721726-5-1%927-206-22%9%11%Total1,9872z026-39-2

39、%2,360-373-16%7%9%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchScrapped Aircraft - In DetailWe count 673 scraps for 2018, 8% higher than this time last year.Scrapped Aircra什一 YTD80070060050040030020010002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Scraps Rest of Year ScrapsSource: F

40、light Global and Barclays ResearchWecount673 scraps in the last 12 months, equivalentto 2.4% ofthefleet, roughly in line with the historical average at 2.6%.FIGURE 45R12M Scrapped Aircraft800 -700 -pddpos600 -500 -400 -o o o o3 2-i1004.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%o.CT ( ( ZL I8TUT IIztut IIISuII寸E

41、a IIron IInIm 二 Tun( m 0Tun( 60京a .60，un(R12M ScrapsSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchR12M ScrapsSource: Flight Global and Barclays Research% of Installed BaseScrap figures are typically revised higherwhen scraps are discovered afterthe fact. We estimate the current R12M scrap rate at2.4% w

42、ill eventually be revised closerto 2.8%, roughly in line with the historical average (2.6%).FIGURE 46Adjusted Scraps % of FleetFIGURE 47Historical Scrap Revisions Over Time100%EEBIIll8EaHa,9E a，寸Ea a二 i Ra 0Ee a6?0ua8EaHa,9E a，寸Ea a二 i Ra 0Ee a6?0P _l1,000 -800 -600 -400 -FIGURE 1R12M Total Leaving

43、Fleet spcnpq-ESUIJO% % % % % 5 4 3 26%200 -1% u c t - 8Tun( I二总aI9i京a I9TUT sn STUm 一工aIrnE d IZEaIZTUm ITKa on .606 a I 6?un% of Installed BaseR12MTotal LeavingSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchBy aircraft type, we estimate narrowbody net removals have declined over the last yearand are ne

44、ar historical lows at 1.3% of the installed base driven by 0.9% aircraft returning from the park (150 aircraft) with relatively normal scraps at2.1%, Widebody removals declined to 1.3% this month driven by 1.3% aircraft returning from the parkand scraps at2.7%. Regional jets added to the fleet on ne

45、t (0.1% of fleet), with 3.1% scraps more than offset by 3.2% coming out of the park.FIGURE 48Scraps % of Fleet - Actual vs. Estimate (Units)Source: FlightGlobaland Barclays Research. Note: Scraps forecasted on units (aircraft) basisascompared toour forecast for scraps on a seats basis in our Supply-

46、Demand model note.Widebody retirements have been running 100bps ahead of narrowbody; we forecast this to continue with widebody scraps in the 3-4% rangeand narrowbody scraps in the 2-3% range over the next several years.FIGURE 49Narrowbody Scraps (Units)FIGURE 50Widebody Scraps (Units)o o o o cxi z

47、rxi zo o o o o z z z z zActual Estimate R12M adjustedActual Estimate R12M adjustedSource: BarclaysResearchandFlightGlobal. Note: Scrapsforecastedon units (aircraft) basis as compared to our forecast for scraps on a seats basis in our Supply-Demand model note.Source: Barclays Research and FlightGloba

48、l. Note: Scrapsforecasted on units (aircraft) basisascompared to our forecast for scraps on a seats basis in our Supply-Demand model note.FIGURE 51Regional Jet Scraps (Units)Source: Barclays Research and FlightGlobal. Note: Scrapsforecasted on units (aircraft) basis as compared to ourforecast for sc

49、raps on a seats basis in our Supply-Demand model note.Of the 673 aircraft scrapped over the last 12 months, we estimate 373 were scrapped narrowbodies, 165 were widebodies and 135 were regional jets. This compares to 625 scrapped aircraft in the prior 12 months (+8%).Scrapped Aircraft - ClassR12MR12

50、Mm/mm/mPriorR12My/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17Narrowbody373379-6-2%3284514%2.1%2.0%Regional Jet135142-7-5%12965%3.1%3.0%Total673690-17-2%625488%2.4%2.3%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchScrapped Aircraft - ManufacturerR12MR12Mm/mm/mPriorR12My/

51、yy/y% fleet% fleet Average AgeDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17Dec-18Airbus13713700%127108%1.3%1.3%14.4Bombardier5657-1-2%48817%3.6%3.0%8.5Others4246-4-9%52-10-19%9.4%10.9%21.9Total673690-17-2%625488%2.4%2.3%22.7Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe estimate that scr

52、aps of young aircraft (0-10 year) remain very low, while scraps of midlife aircraft (11-20 year) have increased since the financial crisis, although have been roughly flat recently.R12M Scraps by Age250 -i200 -150-100 -50 - ml 总 a ZE a IEaa s，un( 60 总 a 6?un( ml 总 a ZE a IEaa s，un( 60 总 a 6?un(bn寸s，

53、un( n6 a 二9Ea9Iun(SEa11-20Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchFIGURE 55Scrapped Aircraft - AgeR12MR12Mm/mm/mPriorR12My/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-170-5000n/a00n/a0.0%0.0%11-152833-5-15%31-3-10%0.6%0.7%Source: Flight Global and Barclays Research21

54、-2515214932%157-5-3%8.3%8.5%26-30173179-6-3%1383525%12.6%11.5%30+127130-3-2%12254%15.6%16.5%Total673690-17-2%625488%2.4%2.3%Scrapped - by ModelWe estimate 398 Boeing aircraft were scrapped overthe last 12 months, roughly 9% higher compared to the prior 12 months.Scrapped Aircraft - BoeingPriorR12MR1

55、2Mm/mm/mR12My/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17 I7071100%01n/a3.4%0.0%7177700%07n/a4.7%0.0%720000n/a00n/an/an/a727232215%18528%22.1%16.1%737112113-1-1%11022%1.5%1.5%737 MAX000n/a00n/a0.0%0.0%7475056-6-11%45511%8.6%7.4%7573542-7-17%56-21-38%4.6%7.2%7672223-1

56、-4%31-9-29%2.6%3.7%7772119211%22-1-5%1.4%1.5%7871100%01n/a0.1%0.0%DC-83300%2150%21.4%14.3%DC-965120%33100%14.0%6.5%DC-1054125%14400%10.6%1.9%MD-80908911%672334%22.0%13.7%MD-90171700%413325%37.8%6.6%MD-115500%500%3.9%3.8%Total398407-9-2%364349%3.0%2.8%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe est

57、imate 137 Airbus aircraft were scrapped over the last 12 months, 8% higher compared to the prior 12 months.Scrapped Aircraft - AirbusPriorSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchR12MR12Mm/mm/mR12My/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17A2201100%01n/a1.6%0.0%A

58、3006600%9-3-33%2.7%4.0%A310119222%12-1-8%18.3%18.2%A31834-1-25%300%7.0%6.7%A320 Family777611%641320%1.1%0.9%A320neo Family000n/a00n/a0.0%0.0%A33098113%7229%0.7%0.5%A330neo000n/a00n/an/an/aA3402831-3-10%31-3-10%12.3%12.8%A350000n/a00n/a0.0%0.0%A3802200%11100%0.9%0.4%Total13713700%127108%1.3%1.3%ANALY

59、ST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):David Strauss, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or i

60、ndirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESBarclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, Barclays). All authors contributing to this research rep