爱立信：5G消费者的潜力（中英双语）

1、。起点财经START your finance围绕5G的四大行业神 话关于5G对消费者价值的讨论大多是由两极分化 的观点和神话所驱动的。在本报告中，我们的 目标是破坏神话并揭示其在消费者现实中的潜 力。是否有机会根据5G的额外功能提供 高级消费者产品，或者是企业和 B2B空间可能产生最正确机会？在全球范围内，电信运营商，行业 代表和政府利益相关者正在积极讨论 5G的机会。然而，公共领域的大局部讨论都是由 两极分化的观点和神话推动的，例如5G将 全部关注企业而非消费者并且没有与 消费者市场相关的真实用例。这种不确定 性让一些人认为4G技术已经能够满足消费 者的需求。2这引领了分析师和评论家 警告

2、消费者不太可能为访问他们不需 要的服务而支付额外费用。这些假设 似乎如此 对运营商也有所了解。迄今为止，智能手机一直是推动移 动宽带技术应用的关键，而普遍的假 设是它在5G时代将是相同的。3认为5G 的潜力仅限于消费者，行业是不确定移动数据使用的未来以及5G将 引领我们的地方。但并不是每个人都 被这些神话所吞噬；有些人认为消费者 确实是5G时代的关键支柱。4 回顾历史，前几代移动技术的这种不确 定性和怀疑态度并不是什么新鲜事。甚 至早在2010年，人们就预测4G蜂窝网络 可能不会辜负炒作。5快进到 2019年，任何人都可以想象没有 4G LTE移动宽带网络？作为一项新兴技术，围绕5G的消费者

3、潜力存在很多问题。现在是时候为辩论 带来一些深度和现实。本报告旨在消除 围绕5G的四个关键神话：5G没有近期的消费者利益。5G没有真正的用例或价格 溢价。智能手机是5G的唯一解决方案。当前使用模式准确预测未来的5G需求。常见的神话用户对他们目前的4G服务非常满 意，对他们来说，没有理由需要支付 额外的费用才能转换到5G。电信分析师“5G的货币化更难。它不像2G, 3G或4G。它不会 解决消费者的问题。它需要更 加直接和引导企业用例和企业 解决方案。“运营商CT0我们不仅根据广泛的消费者研究而且 还根据TCT行业专家的意见来破坏这些 神话。误区1 - 5G没有短期的消费者利益。神话2 - 5G没

4、有真正的用例或价格溢价。神话3 -智能手机是5G的唯一解决方案。神话4 -当前使用模式准确预测未来需求。 s: ZdNET. C0M/TUNELY/5G-PR0CESS USE-CaseSea-Gooto to Beal-Autoto/Office :/paulbudde /blog/mobile-communications/no-quick-wins-with-5g-for-telstra/ s:/venturebeat.eom/2019/03/06/idc-5g-phones-will-grow-from-0-5-market-share-2019-to-26-in-2023/ are-

5、 the-key-pillar-of-the-5g-era-users-will-consume-100gb-a-months s:/news/2010-ll-4g-cellular-networks-hype.html我已经需要为我的智能手机随身 携带电池组了，现在你想让我在我 的手机上添加一块厚实的卡扣，使 其具备5G功能，然后确保我有 与此卡扣兼容的手机。没有发 生！男，32岁，纽约，美国专家见解我们不知道智能手机能够做什么 已启动，推出。它当时层至无法录 制视频，只是静止图像。我认为智 能眼镜也是如此-我们很难想象我 们最终会走向何方。未来的一个愿 景是，我们将拥有自己的元节，在 现实

6、世界中的数字叠加，并将通过 以下方式享受3D体验 我们的眼镜。”JohanHagegSrd, ARRS的企业家， IMRSV消费者仍然需要他们的智能手 机。你不想带走手里拿东西的经 驹。 索尼移动高级经理Mikael Dahlkv 1st200GB五分之一的人可以在5G设备上使 用200GB /月，比目前的蜂窝数据 使用量增加1。倍。50%平均而言，所有智能手机用户中有 一半的人希望他们的移动蜂窝数据 使用量增加超过5G。5G消费者的潜在机会消费者看到了5G的潜力。然而， 生态系统如何开展和利用这些消 费者现实仍然是个谜。谁将筹划 新的5G体验，建立伙伴关系，创 建新设备和捕获结果是额外的收入

7、？新的互联网播 放器，设备制造商或实体是否会出 现，或服务提供商是否会推动这一 开展？随着油田的开放，还有待观 察谁将获得5G消费者的机会。ericsson / consumerlab5G consumer potentialBusting the myths around the value of 5G forconsumersAn Ericsson Consumer & IndustryLab Insight Report May 2019Common myths“Users are very happy with their current 4G service and for them

8、 there would not be a reason to pay extra money to switch over to 5G.Telecom analystThe monetization of 5G is harder.It is not like 2G, 3G or 4G. It is not going to address consumers. It needs to be more directed and steered towards enterprise use cases and enterprise solutions/Operator CTOEricsson

9、| 5G consumer potentialKey consumerrealitiesThrough the insights provided by industry experts and consumers, we uncoverthe potential 5G holdsfor consumers.Figure 2: Four common myths around 5G for consumersMyth 1：There are no near-term consumer benefits of 5G.Myth 2:There are no real use cases for,

10、or price premium on, 5G.RealityConsumers expect 5G to offer a step change in network performance, relief from urban network congestion and more home broadband choices as near-term benefits.Half of smartphone users in South Korea and Australia, and two in five in the US, claim mobile broadband speeds

11、 are not fast enough.Urban network congestion is visible to consumers in megacities; 6 in 10 in mega/metro cities globally face most issues in crowded areas andwould like 5G to be deployed first in suchareas.Consumers expect more home broadband choices; half of those interested in 5G home wireless b

12、roadband are either dissatisfied with their existing provider or lack broadband choices.RealityConsumers see value in 5G services and expect most use cases to go mainstream within 2 to 3 years of 5Gs launch-67 percent say they are willing to payforthem.一Consumers in the US would prefer to cut the co

13、rd from cable TV and instead use streaming services via 5G; Chinese consumers expect to live in a 5G-connected smart home; and South Korean consumers would love to go shopping in mobile VR.Smartphone users say they are willingtopaya20 percent premium for 5G, and early adopters as much as 32 percent.

14、 However, higher internet speed alone wont be enough: 4 in 10 high-spenders expect new apps and services from their5G plan.Ericsson | 5G consumer potentialMyth 3:Smartphones are the only solution for5G.Myth 3:Smartphones are the only solution for5G.Myth 4:Current usage patterns accurately predict fu

15、ture demand. 5G“Ming 所 5GRealitySmartphones alone are unlikely to drive 5G adoption.Consumers themselves predict massive changes in future usage on 5G, with video consumption set to peak.Of those who have a recent iPhone model, 43 percent doubt whether the form factors and features of todays smartph

16、ones can best take advantage of5G.Current smartphones should evolve; 4 in 10 expect foldable screens, holographic projection and 360-degree cameras as features on upcoming 5Gdevices.Globally half of all consumers agree that smartphones will still exist but that we will all be wearing augmented reali

17、ty (AR) smart glasses in the next five years.Three hours more video content will be consumed on mobile devices weekly when away from home, of which one hour will be on AR/VR glasses in a 5G future. Half of all users expect their mobile cellular data usage to increase significantly on 5G, and 1 in 5

18、could see an increase of lOtimes, with usage of 200GB per month.For6 in 10,5G-connected home robotswill be a status symbol, while 4 in 10 expect access to 5G in the carto be asimportantasfuel efficiencyand engine powerin the next 5years.主要的消费现实通过行业专家和消费者提供的见解，我们发现了消费者 可能的5G持有量。图2:消费者对5G左右的四个常见神话神话1：

19、5G没有近期的消费者利益。神话2:5G没有真正的用例或价格溢 价。现实消费者希望5G能够改变网络性能，缓解城市网络拥 塞，提供更多家庭宽带选择作为近期优势。-韩国和澳大利亚的智能手机用户中有一半，美国有五分 之二，声称移动宽带速度不够快。-大城市的消费者可以看到城市网络拥堵;全球大型 /地铁城市中有6%的人在拥挤的地区面临大多数 问题，并希望首先在这些地区部署5G。-消费者期望更多的家庭宽带选择;对5G家庭无线宽带感兴 趣的人中有一半要么对他们现有的提供商不满意，要 么缺乏宽带选择。现实消费者看到5G服务的价值，并期望大多数用例在 5G推出后的2至IJ3年内成为主流- 67%的人表示他 们愿意

20、支付这些费用。-美国的消费者更愿意从有线电视上切断电源线，而 是通过5G使用流媒体服务;中国消费者希望住在一 个5G连接的智能家居中;韩国消费者喜欢在移动VR 中购物。-智能手机用户说他们愿意付钱5G优惠20%,早期采用者优惠32%。然而，仅凭较高的 互联网速度是不够的：十分之四的高消费者期望从他 们的5G计划中获得新的应用和服务。cOd15%41%59%Expert insights“Does it make good business sense to put fiber into every cottage in Lapland? No, but fixed access based o

21、n mobile could make good business sense. But cities will be based on a mixture of technologies and hybrid solutions/Vesa-Pekka Nikula, Executive Vice President of Production, ElisaEricsson | 5G consumer potentialThe consumer wallet for 5G apps and servicesAdvantages of 5G include improved speed, low

22、er latency, increased capacityand greaterflexibility.The question is, will consumers eventually pay for these?The industry seems to be trying to identify the key real-world use cases that will attract consumers. We specifically looked into the use cases involving consumers being asked if they would

23、be willing to pay extra for these as part of their 5G mobile subscription plan. Our research assessed consumers interest and asked what they would be willing to pay, as well as when they think the use cases will go mainstream. Consumers willingness to pay should be interpreted as a stronger measure

24、of their interest in 5G-enabled services. However, it should not be interpreted as a prediction of how much they will pay for a certain service. The end result is a consumer roadmap to 31 different applications and services/use cases, spread across 6 usecase categories: entertainment, enhanced mobil

25、e broadband (eMBB), gaming and AR/VR applications, smart home and fixed wireless access, automotive, and shoppingand immersive communications.Aconsumerusecaseroadmapto5G Smartphone users predict that most applications and services will go mainstream within 2 to 3 years of 5Gs launch and an average 6

26、7 percent of all smartphone users were willing to pay for relevant apps and services that they were interested in. This differs across markets; in the US, for example, consumers expect this to happen within one year of launch, while in markets like Germany and Finland it is around two and a half yea

27、rs or more.The 5G mobile subscription use case roadmap suggests three phases of 5G adoption. Home wireless broadband and premium smartphone experiences that allow content to be downloaded in seconds are expected to go mainstream within one year of 5G launch, and draw high interest and willingness to

28、 pay from consumers. The idea of moving away from traditional cable TV and opting for an ultra-high-definition TV service (5G TV) bundled with 5G home wireless broadband is most sought after by 74 percent of users in oursurvey globally. A similar proportion of smartphone users globally are intereste

29、d in a 5G hot zone service that offers ultra-high speeds and reliability in demanding locations like airports, shopping streets and office spaces.Figure 6: A consumer use case roadmap to 5G80%80%50%AutomotiveEntertainmentGaming and AR/VR eMBBSmart home (FWA)Shopping and immersive communicationsTimel

30、ine to go mainstreamWillingness to payLowestHighest(47%)(79%)01 AR windshield02 AR window03 Autonomous cars04 See-through cars with 5G05 5G in-car entertainment06 VRcinema07 Best seat event experience08 Diorama09 VR passenger entertainment10 5G augmented events11 Arbitrary viewpoint video12 4K 360-d

31、egree action cam13 AR maps14 AR/VR learning15 VR cloudgaming16 Multiplayer AR gaming17 Low latency cloud gaming18 Gigabytes in seconds19 5G hot zones20 5G TV215G home wireless broadband22 Health wearable23 Home sensor service24 5G early alarm system25 Connected robot26 Sensor-enhanced entertainment2

32、7 Real-time translations28Virtual tactile shopping29 Dronedelivery30 3D hologram calling31 5G facial recognition paymentBase: Smartphone users aged 15-69 in Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Belgium, China, Canada, Chile, France, Finland, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Saudi Arabia, South Ko

33、rea, Singapore, Thailand, Uruguay, the UAE, the UKand the US Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, 5G consumer potential (May 2019)Expert insightsloyalty and attraction is the game for us. At an early stage, 5G technology would be especially appealing to early adopters, who have the ability to positively in

34、fluence the rest of the industry/Salim Kouidri, Vice President, Engineering and Operations (New York), T-Mobile USThe challenge for every mobile operator is the consistency of experience. For a guaranteed quality of experience we will be able to charge a premium. For services that require low latenc

35、y we will be able to charge a premium. For 5G as a pure bearer alone? Harder/Derek McManus, COO, Telefonica UKTf and when we can provide a lower latency service for our customers, there is definitely a premium they are willing to pay for it. Think of VR; if the latency goes beyond 10 milliseconds, p

36、eople start feeling nauseous. In certain services, lower latency is a must. There is definitely a value in providing lower latency and customers will be willing to pay some of that value back to us, I am positive about it.”Vesa-Pekka Nikula, Executive Vice President, Elisa FinlandService-based prici

37、ng where the consumers buy a package that includes all the mobile data necessary for a specific use case is likely to come for consumers. It is too early to say how this will develop into a 5G world.wBerit Svendsen, former head, Telenor Scandinavia, and CEO, Telenor Norway“I already need to carry ba

38、ttery packs with me for my smartphone, now you want me to add a chunky piece of snap-on to my phone to make it 5G capable and then ensure I have a phone that is compatible with this snap-on. Not happening!Male, 32, New York, USExpert insightsWe had no clue what the smartphone would be able to do bac

39、k when it was launched. It couldn/t even record video back then, just still images. I think it is the same thing with smart glasses - we have a hard time visualizing where we will end up. One vision of the future is that we will have our own metaverse, a digital overlay on the real world, and will e

40、njoy the 3D experiences through our glasses/Johan Hagegard, Entrepreneur in AR/MR, IMRSVConsumers will still want their smartphones. You dont want to take away the experience of having something in your hand.”Mikael Dahlkvist, Senior Manager, Sony Mobile200GBOne in five could use 200GB/month on 5G d

41、evices, a lOx increase from current cellular data usage.50%On average, half of all smartphone users expect their mobile cellular data usage to increase over 5G.The 5G consumer potential opportunityConsumers see the potential in 5G. However, how the ecosystem will develop and capitalize on these cons

42、umer realities remains a mystery. Who will curate new 5G experiences, forge partnerships, create new devices and capture additional revenue as a result? Will new internet players, device makers or entities emerge, or will service providers drive this development? With the field opening up, it remain

43、s to be seen who will harvest the 5G consumer opportunity.误区3:智能手机是5G的唯一解决方案。26 N&work ova,/ 5G 风0*勺 丫小essfu，y X.一一一仍四M航. 现实仅智能手机不太可能推动5G 的采用。神话4:当前使用模式准确预测未来需 求。消费者自己预测未来5G的使用会发生巨大变化，视频消 费揩到达峰值。一在那些拥有近期iPhone型号的用户中，有43%的人 怀疑当今智能手机的外形和功能是否能最好地利用5GO-当前的智能手机应该开展;4人中有4人希望可折叠屏 幕，全息投影和36()度摄像头成为即将推出的5G设备

44、 的特色。全球一半的消费者都认为智能手机仍然存在，但我们 将在未来五年内佩戴增强现实(AR)智能眼镜。-每周离家时移动设备将消耗3小时以上的视频内容， 其中5小时未来的AR / VR眼镜将耗费1小时。-所有用户中有一半希望他们的移动蜂窝数据使用量 在5G上显着增加，五分之一的用户可以看到增加 10倍，每月使用200GB。-对于1。个中的6个，5G连接的家用机器人将成为状 态符号，而1。个中的4个预计在未来5年内，车内5G 的燃料效率和发动机功率同样重要。专家见解将光纤放入拉普兰的每个小屋 都具有良好的商业意义吗？ 不，但基于移动设备的固定访 问可以做到良好的商业意识。但城市将基 于混合技术和混合解决方案。Elisa生产执行副总裁Vesa-Pekka Nikula适用于5G应用和服务 的消费者钱包5G的优点包括提息速度，降低延迟，增加容 量和更大的灵活性。问题是，消费者最终会为这些付费吗？该行业似乎正试图找出吸引消费者的关 键现实用例。我们特别调查了涉及消费 者的用例，询问他们是否愿意为这些用 户支付额外费用作为其5G移动订阅计划 的一局部。我们的研究评估了消费者的 兴趣，并询问他们愿意支付什么，以及 何时支付他们认为用例将成为主流。消费者的支 付意愿应该被解释为更有利于