凯捷咨询《解决问题方法和假设》34英文版

1、Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 2Goals of this moduleLay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving ” Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teamsPractic

2、e the suggested process on a real-life exampleXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 3Strategy is about thriving in a changing world“The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen . . . The worlds climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain

3、about the size of a walnut.”Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 4 which is all about “decision making” “Strategy is about making decisions”The best strategy “makers” are able to blend analytic techniques with an understanding of the future uncertainties and si

4、mple good luckBased on often imperfect information they make decisions and then drive implementationXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 5There are two basic approaches to problem solving; but both can workThe “theres a pony in here somewhere” approachThe struc

5、tured analytic approachPotentialfor richpowerfulsolutionsScurry around analyzing tons of data to see if you can find something usefulGet the dataPotential forgood (and mixed) solutionsDefineproblemandhypothesesXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 6Defining the

6、issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual inf

7、ormation gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysisXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 7Hypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problem

8、Form HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what t

9、he data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysisXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 8Hypotheses are developed in three stepsWhat are the real strategic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are the priorities?We thi

10、nk . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . .A series of statements, not yet backed by dataBased on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for

11、 white label insurance products?Direct channels are growingRetailers have a strong channel and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Descri

12、be Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 9A hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test

13、 it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue?What are the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opportunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.”“due to.”“resultingin.”Xxx/yymmdd -

14、Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 10The Structured Problem Solving Process covers the life cycle of a consulting engagement Define the ProblemStructure the ProblemDevelop a HypothesisExecute the Analysis Develop a Recommendation Create the Communication Deliver Communica

15、tionFollow Up with ClientCovered in current moduleCovered later in the weekXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 11The Basics - Problem Solving ApproachXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 12DEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE

16、ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questionsIs there a problem or opportunity?If so where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this.Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Prob

17、lem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 13Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Always ask: “Are they Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive (MECE)?”Logical pyramids are basic tools for this approach, helping you to define, structure and solve the clients problem 1.Ideas

18、at any level in the pyramid must always be summaries of the ideas grouped below them2.Ideas in each grouping must always be the same kind of idea, and they must answer the same question implied by their summary3.Ideas in each grouping must always be in a logical order:MainAssertionKey LineDeductivel

19、y or inductively Trace course or time orderDivide or structural order (e.g., Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing, etc.)Classify or degree order (e.g., most important, 2nd most important, etc.)Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 14Logical pyramids increase the effe

20、ctiveness of problem solving, results delivery and communicationVertical structureHorizontal structureKey line / narrativebut help ensure thoroughanalysiswhile decreasingcomplexityand increasing the powerof presentations Logical pyramids have simple rulesThe effectiveness of our work depends heavily

21、 on how compellingly we can argue that the solution we put forward serves the client bestThe reasoning we have to apply to come to our solution is complex and difficult to summarize for brief client interactionsTo build succinct and compelling presentations of our work, we use logical pyramids as th

22、e preferred communication style:Pyramids make information more memorable and meaningfulThey lead to a clearer definition of the problems we solveThey structure our solutions to these problems and make them more compellingSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.which will make your work/life m

23、uch easier to handleXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 15Define and Structure the ProblemXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 16“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” -AnonymousWhy problem

24、definition mattersXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 17In structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut

25、 be careful why does this not work?Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 18Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you imposeXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 19DivideCl

26、arifyDiagnosticFrameworkCause EffectFrameworkStructuralFrameworkProblem StructureTo help you solve a problem, your structure must:Disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve componentsBe a “MECE” description of the problem and its possible solutionsTrace CauseThere are three ways to st

27、ructure a business problemSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 20HeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress, TensionHypochondriaBumped, Bruised HeadAllergiesBad Weather, Sinus Headache, Flu, ColdBrain TumorWater

28、 on the BrainExample 1 disaggregate the problem into a diagnostic solution treeSCooPSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 21Store is withinshopping radiusdo not know about the storeknow about the storenever visit th

29、e storeenter the storedo not buymake a purchasedo not come backmake repeat purchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage, CIConversionCustomer ValueRoot CauseExample 2 (trace cause) disaggregate the problem into a cause-effect frameworkHow can TESCO improve its sales productivity (sales/sq.ft.)?Xxx/yymmdd - S

30、tructured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 22AccounttypePack sizeREPURCHASETarget market persuaded to repurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrand madeavailable?TRIALTarget market induced to try?AWARENESSTarget marketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyof useOccasionof useConsumerp

31、rofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIf all lines of inquiry fail to reveal a problem source, go back to consider whether target market and consumer benefit have been accurately defined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspending rateMediamixRegional we

32、ightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSales forcecoverageSales forcedirectionTradetermsExample 3 disaggregate the problem into an intrinsic structure Why does Wimpys not show the anticipated financial performance?ChannelSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Productspe

33、c.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrand properly positioned for themarket?Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 23Exercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*Mart: define and structure Kmarts business problemSituationKmart and Wal*Mart operate similar chains of Full line

34、Discount storesDifferent pricing strategies: Kmart follows a promotional pricing strategy of weekly sales, offering discounts on selected items, Wal*Mart follows an EDLP strategy (EDLP = Every Day Low Prices); Kmarts regular prices are higher than Wal*Marts, its sales prices are lowerWal*Mart has a

35、better price perception than KmartKmart has a higher GM than Wal*Mart (23% vs. 21%)Kmart has significantly higher SG&A as percent of sales, which eliminate Kmarts Gross Margin advantage over Wal*MartWal*Marts scale advantage is not driven by the number of stores, but by its sales per store (better s

36、ales per square foot)Kmart has significantly lower sales per square foot sales than Wal*Mart ($170 vs $250). With Wal*Marts sales productivity, Kmart would be about as profitable as Wal*MartComplicationKmart is operating at break-even, and Wal*Marts aggressive expansion puts more and more of Kmarts

37、stores into direct competition with Wal*Mart, decreasing their store contribution and Kmarts overall profitabilityQuestion?Structure Kmarts problem to help its management devise a solution, including identifying the key question that our study must answerXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and H

38、ypothesis Generation, Author / 24Exercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: first step is to logically organize the factsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sa

39、les vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than KmartXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 25Exercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: second step

40、 is to iterate to drive insight creationAlthough Kmarts Hi/Lo pricing strategy leads to high GM, high SG&A has led to eroding sales productivityHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs.

41、 WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than KmartWalMart is aggressively expanding, with highly productive stores and a different pricing strategy than KMartCustomers perceive WalMart delivers

42、higher value in some areasHow can Kmart improve its sales productivity (sales / sq. ft.)?Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 26Exercise 4 summary performance data for a credit card issuer whats the problem?Note: All figures in 1000s. Assume no priceinflation a

43、nd that interest rates have remained constantThe 80/20 Rule 80% of the answer is in 20% of the dataOften we miss the goldmine because we are busy trying to value the shack built on top of it This data, taken from a real client (but rebased,) tells the whole sorry story of their strategic problem in

44、one picture Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 27Exercise 5 using a “quick and dirty” approach can produce surprisingly accurate results30 million?300 million?3 billion?30 billion?300 billion?How Many (Retail) Litres of Petrol Are Sold in France Per Year?Data

45、: French Population 60 million. 1 Gallon = 3.8 Litres Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 28Develop a HypothesisXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 29Explicitly ties your analysis to your problem definitionWhy hypotheses

46、 matterThey keep your effortHelps define the level of accuracy that mattersEnsures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubtAllows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm our belief in the hypothesis, will we be able to act on

47、 it?”Keeps you efficientOn targetAccurateMinimalActionableOn TimeXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 30Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.1. Rule2. Case3. ResultRuleCaseResultIf we put the price too high, sales will go downWe have put prices too hi

48、ghTherefore, sales will go downCaseResultRuleWe have put prices upSales have gone downSales have gone down because the price is too highSales have gone downSales go down when prices are too highProbably we have put prices too highHypothesisResultRuleCaseAbduction is a variation on deductive and indu

49、ctive reasoning and a powerful tool to develop hypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1. Case2. Result3. Rule1. Result2. Rule3. CaseXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 31DEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?On target:Answers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embrac