企业管理--团队致胜（及时制供应方案）（ 65页）ppt课件

1、PART I Challenges3Winning as a Team團隊致勝.Winning as a TeamIf complexity and variability are what make supply chain management a hardgame to master, then the best tactics are those that lead to simplicity andstability. Indeed, most of the innovations in supply chain management overthe past 20 years ha

2、ve attempted to both simplify and stabilize the flow ofdemand, supply, and cash. These innovations include the extension of just-in-time manufacturing techniques out to the supply chain, plus a variety ofspecialized programs for managing the replenishment of retail inventories.Unfortunately, the gai

3、ns produced by these programs have often come at theexpense of other links in the chain, and that doesnt improve thecompetitiveness of the chain as a whole. A brief look at game theory reveals why these programs are falling short and points the way to the winningstrategy: integrating the members of

4、the supply chain into a smoothlyfunctioning team by making sure that every members win contributes to thesuccess of all the others.倘假设供應鏈管理不易知晓是因為其複雜性(complexity)與變異性(variability)，那麼最好的戰術就是設法讓系統變得單純(simplicity)與穩定(stability)。的確，在過去20年間，大部分的供應鏈管理創新，都在企圖讓需求(demand)、供應(supply)與帳款(cash)的流程可以簡單，而且穩定地進行。這

5、些創新的方法包括延伸及時制(JIT)生產技術於供應鏈上，以及數種管理零售存貨補充的推動方案(programs)。不幸的是，這些推動方案所帶來的收益常呵斥供應鏈其他連結(links)費用的添加，而無法提升整體供應鏈的競爭力。本章簡單以賽局理論(game theory)探討，可以發現這些推動方案有所缺乏之缘由，並指出致勝战略之道：整合供應鏈成員成為一個運作順暢的團隊，確保每位成員的獲勝會帶給其他成員的胜利。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)JIT has transformed manufacturingOf the many efforts to improve the

6、flow of raw materials into production facilities, most have involved extending the reach of the just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing method upstream toward suppliers. One of the key elements of the JIT approach is eliminating excess inventory throughout the production process by timing the movement of m

7、aterials to each workstation to arrive just at the moment they are needed for the next operation. This practice minimizes inventories throughout the production process, helping manufacturing companies reduce holding costs, minimize obsolescence, and improve their return on assets. These benefits hav

8、e led to the widespread adoption of JIT throughout industries that use repetitive production techniques.及時制改變了製造方式在改善物料到生產設施間流程的許多努力中，常見的做法是將及時制生產方法(just-in-time(JIT)manufacturing)向上延伸至供應商端。及時制(JIT)方法的關鍵要素之一是，藉由排定投料到各任务站地時間，讓物料根據下一個作業(next operation)所需適時地送達，以減少生產過程中多餘的存貨。這樣的做法可以讓製程中的物料存貨降到最低，讓生產工廠降低

9、存貨持有本钱，減少老舊存貨，並且改善資產報酬率。由於有這些優點，使得及時制生產方法廣泛地被應用於重複性生產技術的產業中(repetitive production techniques)。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)Frequent shipments reduce total inventoryOf the three inventories held in production facilities, the work-in-Process (WIP)inventory is most easily reduced using JIT. But WIP is

10、usually the smallest andleast expensive of the inventories, and tackling the other two requires changingthe way suppliers deliver raw materials and customers receive finished goods.In order to bring down the inventory of raw materials, JIT producers work withtheir suppliers to switch over from large

11、 shipments of materials that go tocentral receiving facilities to small, frequent shipments that go directly fromtrucks to the factory floor (Figure 3.1). The change is a dramatic one, oftentaking a company from monthly orders and shipments to multiple shipments aday with precisely timed arrivals. M

12、ost JIT producers have a similar programon the outbound side, using small, frequent deliveries to minimize theirinventory of finished goods.頻率高的貨件運送可以降低總存貨在生產設施所持有的三種存貨類型中，在製品(WIP)最容易運用及時制方法來降低存貨水準。然而，在製品存貨通常是其中占最小比率也花費最少的部分，不過解決另外兩種存貨(原物料、製废品)問題必須改變供應商交運原物料與交付顧客製废品的方式。為了降低原物料存貨，及時制生產工廠與他們的供應商协作，將物料

13、由大批量送到工廠中央物料倉庫的方式，改為小批量高頻度直接由卡車送到生產線上(factory floor)的方式(見圖3.1)。這是個相當宏大的改變，通常會將公司的月訂單月交貨方式改變為嚴格到貨時間要求之1日數次配送方式。大部分及時制生產工廠對於外向物流(outbound logistics)也有類似做法，即採用小批量高頻度的配送以降低製废品存貨水準。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)Just-in-Time Supply.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)JIT requires close partnerships with suppliersA

14、s soon as manufacturers begin to make these kinds of changes. JIT quickly expands from a production initiative to a much broader programthat requires systematic changes in supply chain management. Toyota, the company that pioneered the JIT method in the 1970s, was keenly aware of this aspect of its

15、program, and it worked closely with its suppliers to convert their operations to JIT as well, precisely coordinating the flow of goods from suppliers to production plants. In order to support the close relationship required by this new kind of production, Toyota used a uniquely Japanese form of join

16、t partnership, called a keiretsu, with its key suppliers. In Toyotas case, the keiretsu involved taking a 20 to 50 equity position in each supplier and replacing 20 of its key executives with Toyota personnel.及時制要求緊密的供應商夥伴關係在製造廠陸續進行這些改變後，及時制很快地由生產推動方案擴展到更大範圍的推動方案，要求供應鏈管理的系統性變革。豐田公司(Toyota)，在1970年代發展

17、出及時制，很清楚及時制的特性，並緊密地與其上游供應商协作，將供應商作業也轉變成及時制，精準地調節從供應商到生產線的物料流程。為了援助新生產方案所需的緊密關係，豐田公司(Toyota)與其主要供應商間採用了獨特日本型態的聯合夥伴關係(joint partnership)，稱之為企業團(keiretsu)。以豐田案例來說，企業團的做法涉及持有供應商20%50%的股東權益，以豐田公司人員替換供應商20%的主要高階主管。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)Simpler ordering reduces complexityJIT practices offer importan

18、t insights into how supply chains can be improved.Although the apparent focus of JIT is on reducing inventory, the true spirit of the method is a systematic pursuit of quality, one aspect of which is eliminating any unnecessary complexity. In the case of supply chain transactions, this philosophy ha

19、s led to a much needed streamlining of the order-shipment-payment cycle. Instead of accumulating large orders mixing many different kinds of materials, producers place many orders for individual materials, often paying for these materials on delivery rather than accumulating lump sums. In addition,

20、a great deal of documentation has been stripped away. For example, traditional orders are often eliminated in favor of continuously updated delivery schedules, and billing documents may be eliminated altogether. One of the great contributions of JIT to supply chain management is to provide a clear d

21、emonstration of just how simple the basic flows can become.簡單訂購方式降低了複雜度及時制(JIT)提供許多關於供應鏈如何改善的重要洞察力。雖然及時制主要著重在降低存貨，但這個方法的真正精神還是在於，以系統化方法追求品質的提升，其中一個目標就是消除任何不用要的複雜性。在供應鏈买卖的情況中，這個哲學更須要求訂購貨件運送付款週期(order-shipment-payment)的改善與順暢化。取代累積大量且訂購多種物料的訂單方式，生產商依個別物料下不同的訂單，經常收料後即付款而不會積壓很久再一次支付。此外，很多文件也不再需求。例如，傳統式訂單

22、常被消除，改用持續更新的配送排程表(delivery schedules)，而此同時，帳款文件(billing documents)能够也不再需求。及時制方法論對於供應鏈管理的一個主要貢獻，就是提供一個明晰的示範：根本流程可以是非常簡單的。 .JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)Consistent performance reduces variabilityAlong with reducing complexity, the JIT philosophy of quality also seeks to reduce variability in every stag

23、e of production. To this end, each operation is analyzed, refined, and rehearsed until it can be completed both quickly and consistently. In the case of supply chains, this level of rigor not only accelerates the movement of goods, it also adds an unprecedented level of precision to deliveries. This

24、 precision allows inventories of raw materials to be reduced to a fraction of their normal levels without causing shutdowns on the line.一致性績效表現可以降低變異性除了降低複雜性外，及時制品質哲學也尋求降低各個生產階段的變異性(variability)。為達此目標，每一項作業都要加以分析(analyzed)、修正(refined)與演練(rehearsed)，直至該作業可以快速且一致地完成。就供應鏈來看，這麼嚴格的要求不僅加速貨物移動的速度，也達到前所未有的交

25、貨精確度。這樣的精確度使物料存貨可以降低其原有水準，也不會呵斥斷線(shutdowns on the line)的情形。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)JIT can make supply chains fragileOf course, not every form of variability can be eliminated, and herein lies the downside of JIT: It can make supply chains so fragile that any interruption in the flow of suppli

26、es brings the entire chain to a halt. Toyota learned this in 1997 when a fire at one of its suppliers shut down Toyotas production lines for an entire week. The following year, strikes in two GM parts plants led to the shutdown of almost all of the companys assembly plants within a matter of days. A

27、 year later, seven DaimlerChrysler plants and three GM plants were forced into half-shifts when flooding in one suppliers plant created a shortage of a single part. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, many plants in the United States had to be closed due to breakdowns in the transport

28、ation system. Ford, for example, shut down five North American plants due to parts shortages, many of them due to delays in bringing trucks across the Canadian border.及時制能够會使供應鏈更脆弱當然，不是一切變異性的型態都可以被消除，及時制(JIT)的弱點在於：及時制能够會讓供應鏈變得非常脆弱，以致於當物品供應流程中發生任何干擾時，整個供應鏈會陷於停擺。1997年，豐田公司(Toyota)在一次發生在其供應商的火災中學到教訓，當時

29、讓豐田公司生產線不得不停工整個星期。次年，兩個通用汽車(GM)零件工廠的罷工事件在幾天內幾乎使一切公司組裝廠停擺。隨即1年後，七個戴姆勒克萊斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)工廠與三個通用汽車工廠，因一個供應商遭洪水侵襲，無法供應某種零件而被迫以半天班(half-shifts)的方式生產。在2001年911恐惧攻擊事件之後，因運輸系統的癱瘓，許多美國工廠都必須停工。例如，福特汽車(Ford)，因零件在通過加拿大邊境時發生延遲而呵斥短缺，必須暫時關閉五個北美的工廠。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)Manufacturers are now cautious abou

30、t JITShutdowns such as these can quickly wipe out the savings associated with reduced inventory levels. For a large manufacturer, having a plant shut down can cost as much as $10,000 a minute. Given this kind of financial impact, many firms that adopted JIT wholeheartedly are now rethinking their po

31、sition and taking a more conservative approach. Honda, for one, now has a policy of maintaining dual suppliers for all its raw materials. Ford, while reaffirming its commitment to its JIT program in the wake of the terrorist attacks, immediately began developing plans to stockpile engines and other

32、key parts at some U.S. plants.製造商現在非常謹慎採用及時制類此斷線停工狀況可以很快地侵蝕掉降低存貨水準所帶來的效益。對大型製造商而言，停工所帶來的損失可以高達1分鐘1萬美圆。由於有這樣的財務面衝擊，許多熱切全心導入及時制的企業，現在開始重新省思他們的定位，並且採用一種較保守的對應方式。本田汽車(Honda)，其申一例，現在採用雙供應商政策以確保物料的供應無虞。福特汽車雖在恐惧攻擊後仍重申貫徹及時制，不過卻開始計劃在數個美國工廠儲備引擎與一些關鍵零組件。.JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案)Simplicity and consistency r

33、emain key goalsEven with appropriate risk management, JIT isnt the right approach for every supply chain. It doesnt work in job shops, which do not use production lines, and its not relevant to process manufacturing. Even within its natural domain, repetitive production, its not a good choice for lo

34、w-volume products or for products with uncertain demand. But these are limitations, not defects; for the right kind of production environment, JIT can lead to dramatic improvements. More important, however, is the way the JIT effort illustrates how much can be done to reduce complexity and variabili

35、ty in supply chains. JITs emphasis on simplicity and consistency can be used to advantage at every link of the chain, regardless of whether other aspects of the technique are employed.簡單化與一致化仍為主要目標即使有適當的風險管理機制，及時制不見得適用於一切的供應鏈。它並不適合包件生產方式(job shops)，這種方式是沒有生產線的；它也不適用於程序型生產方式(process manufacturing)。即使

36、在其最適用的領域重複生產方式(repetitive production)上，它也不適用於少量或不確定性高的產品。但這些只是限制，不能說是缺點。用對生產環境的話，及時制可以帶來可觀的改善。然而，更重要的是，投入及時制後所顯示大幅降低供應鏈複雜性與變異性所產生的效果。無論能否要运用及時制的其他特征，及時制在簡單化(simplicity)與一致化(consistency)上之重視，即可為供應鏈的每個連結帶來優勢。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)Retail replenishment is a tough problemThe second major c

37、lass of supply chain programs deals with the distribution side, and is concerned with replenishing retail inventories Historically, the link between retail stores and their immediate suppliers has been a difficult juncture in the supply chain. In the past, retail inventories were managed by independ

38、ent storeowners, who often lacked sophisticated tools for forecasting demand and planning replenishment. Yet this is precisely the point in the chain that can be the hardest to manage because it is the first point to feel the impact of changing consumer preferences. It is also the point where the ch

39、ain becomes visible to the consumer, so its critical to manage it well. If the desired product isnt on the shelf when a consumer walks in to buy it, even the most perfect sequence of supply operations is a failure.零售補貨是個困難的問題第二類主要的供應鏈方案處理的是配銷端的活動，是關於補充零售存貨的機制。從歷史角度來看，零售店與他們直接供應商的連結，始終是供應鏈中的一個問題點。過去，

40、零售存貨是由個別獨立的店鋪所控管，他們通常缺乏可協助預測需求與規劃補貨的精良工具。不過，這也能够是供應鏈中最難以管理的設施點，因為零售店是位處於感受顧客偏好改變影響的第一個據點。零售店也是消費者直接接觸供應鏈的那個設施據點，因此，妥善管理零售點是很重要的任务。假设顧客走進店來想要購買時，需求的產品卻不在貨架上，那即使是擁有最完美的供應作業也是個失敗。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)Early efforts shifted control of inventoryThe first generation of retail replenishment

41、programs was based on shifting thecontrol of inventories (Figure 3.2). In the traditional arrangement, retailersmanage their own inventories and replenish them as they see fit. The problem with this arrangement is that producers are often in a better position than retailers to track emerging pattern

42、s in demand. In addition, producers can remove cost and uncertainty from this link in the chain by centralizing control of the replenishment process. One way to leverage these advantages is consignment, in which producers retain both ownership and control over inventories of their products at a reta

43、ilers site. Consignment has proved to be an effective tool for selling products that retailers might not be willing to carry on conventional terms, but its not the first choice for producers because they have to wait longer before they get paid for their products.早期努力著重於存貨控制權的移轉第一代的零售補貨方案著重在存貨控制權的移轉

44、(見圖3.2)。傳統做法是，零售商管理本人的存貨，並且根據他們認為的適合數量來補貨。這種做法的問題是，生產者往往處在優於零售商的位置來追蹤正在浮現的需求型態。此外，生產者可藉由補貨程序之中央控制方式來移除連結上的本钱與不確定性。一個平衡這些優勢的方法是寄售(consignment)，即委託生產者保有商品的一切權與控制零售端的存貨。對一些零售商能够不願意以傳統买卖條款銷售的商品，供應商生產者寄售的做法已經被證實是個有效的方式。不過這種做法對生產者而言，不會是第一個選擇方案，因為他必須等候更長的時間來获得貨款。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)Early e

45、fforts shifted control of inventoryInventoryManagementRelationships.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)transfers ownership but not controlA more recent development, vendor-managed inventory (VMI),is shown in the middle row of Figure 3.2. The innovative aspect of VMI is the way it separates control

46、from ownership, both of which usually transfer at the same time. In VMI, a producer receives continuous updates on a retailers inventory level and replenishes it as needed, with the retailer taking ownership of the goods on delivery. This gives producers better visibility of sales of their products,

47、 helping them anticipate demand and better plan supply. The retailers benefit because they no longer have to track inventory levels or place orders for products under a VMI program. They also save money because they usually need less inventory, sometimes as little as half of what they would otherwis

48、e keep in stock.VMI移轉的是一切權但不是控制權最近的一個發展為供應商管理存貨(vendor-managed inventory, VMI)方案，參考圖3.2的中間部分。普通而言，一切權與控制權的移轉是同時發生的，VMI的創新觀點則是將一切權與控制權分開來處理。VMI的做法是，生產商接纳到零售商存貨狀況的連續更新資訊，並且負責補充零售商所需；而零售商則在產品配交給顧客時获得一切權。這樣的做法讓生產商可以更清楚地掌握產品的銷售狀況，協助他們預測需求並做好供應的規劃。而零售商則因無須追蹤存貨水準與無須執行訂貨作業而獲益。雙方也節省了本钱，因為需求的存貨通常較少，有時甚至雙方持有存貨

49、為原來一半的水準。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)Quick response applies JIT to the retail linkIn addition to VMI, several other programs have been developed to smooth the flow of goods through retail stores. One of the earliest was the quick response (QR) program, an effort on the part of the apparel i

50、ndustry in the 1980s to combine some of the techniques of JIT with technologies for monitoring inventory levels in real time. As shown in Figure 3.3, electronic point of sale (POS) systems automatically captured data about clothing sales as they occurred, then transmitted this data to producers usin

51、g electronic data interchange (EDI) connections. Producers responded with daily shipments of pre-tagged items that could go directly from their trucks to the selling floor.快速回應將及時制應用在零售連結上除了供應商管理存貨(VMII)之外；還有一些已經發展出來的方案，可以讓貨物流通到零售店的過程更為順暢。早期方法之一就是快速回應(quick response, QR)，為1980年代服飾業所提出，努力於結合及時制(JIT)方

52、法與即時監控存貨狀況的技術。如圖3.3所示，當衣服銷售發生時，電子銷售時點(electronic point of sale, POS)系統自動擷取銷售資料，然後以電子資料交換(electronic data interchange, EDI)方式傳送電子資料給生產商。生產商將預先貼好標籤的產品，以每日出貨的方式由卡車直接配送至銷售場所。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)Quick response applies JIT to the retail linkThe QuickResponse Program.Retail Replenishment P

53、rograms(零售補貨方)Continuous replenishment added VMIIn the late 1980s, the apparel industry rolled out an extension of the QR program known as continuous replenishment (CR). As shown in Figure 3.4, this program incorporated VMI for better inventory control, and it introduced joint forecasting so that pr

54、oducers and retailers could pool their understanding of consumer demand to better predict future sales. Another important aspect of this program was that a replenishment agreement acted as a standing purchase commitment. This allowed members of the program to eliminate individual purchase orders alt

55、ogether, further streamlining the replenishment process.持續補貨参与VMI機制在1980年代後期，服飾產業進一步延伸QR的做法成為持續補貨(continuous replenishment, CR)。如圖3.4所示，持續補貨結合了VMI 機制以提供更好的存貨管理，它更導入聯合預測(joint forecasting)方法，讓生產商與零售商可以整合對於顧客需求的瞭解，以更準確預測未來的銷售額。這個方案的另一個要點是，一個持續補貨協議猶如一項有效的採購承諾(standing purchase commitment)。這可以讓成員間均去除一切的

56、個別訂單，並進一步使補貨程序順暢化。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)Continuous replenishment added VMIRetailReplenishmentPrograms.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)ECR added category managementIn 1993, the grocery industry launched its own version of continuous replenishment, calling it the efficient consumerr

57、esponse (ECR) program. ECRs major contribution was the addition of category management, which organizes promotion and replenishment activities around groups of products that consumers view as roughly equivalent in satisfying their needs. This addition helps grocery stores determine the best mix of p

58、roducts to put on their shelves to make sure their customers needs are met even if there are occasional shortages. This program also encourages the use of activity-based costing (described in Chapter 9) to determine the profitability of each product category.有效消費者回應参与品類管理機制1993年，日用品雜貨產業(the grocery

59、industry)開啟該產業本人版本的持續補貨系統，也就是所謂的有效消費者回應(efficient Consumer response, ECR)陣ECR的主要貢獻在於参与品類管理(category management)機制，可以組織消費者視為同類產品的促銷與補貨活動。這個附加功能讓日用品雜貨產業可以決定上架的最正确產品組合，即使有時部分產品發生缺貨仍可以確保顧客的需求得以滿足。這個方案也促成作業基礎本钱制之應用(參照第9章)，以決定每一產品類別的獲利才干。.Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方)programs attack complexity and

60、variabilityLike the JIT programs described earlier, retail replenishment programs reflect acontinuing effort to simplify and stabilize supply chain flows. For example, theelimination of orders in continuous replenishment removed a major source oftime and cost that added no value to the end consumer.