可持续性与气候

1、2 Think:Act | SustainaramaTHE BIG Prioritize sustainability HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Our world is HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 changing HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 businesses need HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 to follow suit HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 P. 5 Understand alternatives HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 You cant predict the

2、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 future, but you can HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 reduce its complexity HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 P. 10 Anticipate opportunitiesWhat can your company do to shape a better normal? P. 22ContentsSustainarama | Think:Act 3Cover Illustration: Adrian Bauer1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 PAGE 5 Putt

3、ing sustainability center stage The future for business 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 PAGE 10 Thinking in alternatives Four scenarios for 2050 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 #1: Planned new world HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 #2: Race for sustainability HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 #3: Minimum viable master plan HYPERLINK l

4、_bookmark7 #4: Everyone for themselvesINTERVIEWS: HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 REBECCA HENDERSON HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Harvard Business School HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 P. 8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 JENNIFER MORGAN HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Greenpeace International HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 P. 203 PAGE 22 Anticipat

5、ing opportunities How to shape a better normal 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 PAGE 26 Choosing your path Implications for corporate strategy4 Think:Act | SustainaramaExecutive SummaryGLOBAL WARMING, marine pollution, biodiversity loss, human rights violations, scandals in corporate governance barely a da

6、y goes by without some aspect of sustainability hitting the headlines. Society is standing at a crossroads. Which path it decides to take will impact not only the lives of the present generation but also those of the generations to come.In recent years, sustainability has found a ftrm place on the t

7、op management agenda. Some businesses have embraced a purpose that goes beyond meeting short-term shareholder targets. Many others continue with business as usual. Yet there are good reasons for companies to embark on a sustainability journey. Growing public concern has resulted in a tightening of r

8、egulations across many regions in areas such as CO2 emissions, closed-loop recyclingand gender inequality. The pressure does not stop there,either: Sustainability has long since reached the ftnancial markets, with investors urging businesses to make ambitious commitments.There is also opportunity in

9、 sustainability. Much to the surprise of some observers, Generation Z (people born in the late 1990s and in the 2000s) is turning out to be a generation of activists, spreading their message rapidly through social media. As they enter the workforce in ever greater numbers, their voices have increasi

10、ng weight when it comes to corporate behavior. They are forcing their employers to develop a new sense of purpose. And as a customer group they are putting their money where their mouths are, choosing sustainable products and services over less sustainable equivalents.In the past, humanity has often

11、 stood at crossroads such as these. History shows that we are capable of changing our behavior. But will the sustainability revolution come fast enough? In this publication we present four scenarios,pictures of what the world may look like in 2050. Together, they form a panorama of the range of diff

12、erent possible futures with regard to sustainability a sustainarama, as we like to call it. We analyze the different scenarios using the increasingly popular ESG framework, which looks at the three core dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social and corporate governance issues. The implicat

13、ions for businesses differ for each of the scenarios and affect a wide range of areas, from competition to differentiation, from innovation to recruiting.So much for what the future may look like what will companies be doing to shape tomorrows world? In our analysis we divide up the opportunities by

14、 ESG dimension and time horizon. Companies can take a wide variety of steps, such as achieving CO2 neutrality, eliminating childand forced labor in their supply chains, ensuring genderdiversity within their organizations, linking CEO compensation and staff bonuses to sustainability performance, ensu

15、ring full transparency and putting robust whistleblower systems in place. We discuss a selection of these opportunities below.It is our conviction that any corporate strategy developed over the next ftve years will also be a sustainability strategy. Sustainability is an issue that is here to stay, a

16、nd companies that fail to address it in their strategies could be running substantial risks: the risk of damage to their reputation, problems in their supply chains, risks to the environment, and so on. By contrast, businesses that choose to tackle the sustainability question head-on may ftnd that d

17、oing so can pay great rewards.We believe that business needs to act now and help shape a future that is both livable, equitable and environ- mentally secure. 1 Putting sustainability center stage The future for businessSustainarama | Think:Act 5THERE CAN BE no doubt that sustainability is one of the

18、 most pressing issues currently facing the world. It is an issue that affects every aspect of life, from our day-to-day decisions to the fate of future generations, from the world of politics to the private sector. Sustainability is shaping the way the world is changing and it will continue to do so

19、 in the future.To fully understand what we mean by sustainability, it is worth looking at how the concept has developed over time. As early as the 1970s, scientists were warning about the environmental effects of global warming. The publication of the report The Limits to Growth in 1972, commissione

20、d by the Club of Rome, marked a signiftcant landmark. But centuries earlier, people were already struggling against what we would now consider another key aspect of sustainability, namely ethnic and gender discrimination.Today, sustainability has also found a ftrm place on the corporate strategy age

21、nda. Not least since the Enron scandal in 2001, companies have begun implementing, or at least#BlackLivesMatter demonstrate the intensity of feeling in todays society about wrongdoing.To the surprise of some observers, Generation Z, a demographic previously thought to be indifferent and politically

22、unengaged, are proving to be a generation of activists. Disappointed with traditional political mechanisms, they channel their activism through social media and non-governmental organizations. Experts are forecasting that the number of people supporting NGOs around the globe will grow from 1.4 billi

23、on in 2014 to 2.5 billion by 2030.1) With increasing support and growing funding as a result NGOs will be demanding an ever greater say in decision-making.Generation Z are now also entering the workforce. Consequently, companies are having to strengthen their commitment to sustainability, both inter

24、nally and externally and make this commitment credible. Generation Z expect their employers to have a social mission, a sense of purposeaspiring to, compliance and ethical standards. Before we move on to the question of how sustainability may shape the next three decades, it is worth asking why this

25、 has happened. What is it that is driving companies to make sustainability a key part of their strategy?SOCIETY IS CHANGINGIncreasingly, it is the general public that is leading the sustainability debate. Whether it is images of polar bears affected by the shrinking ice caps, or islands of plastic w

26、aste four times the size of Germany, environmental problems have become a major concern among the public. With the help of social media, these concerns spread across society, reaching more people and at a faster speed than was ever possible in the past. Movements such as #MeToo andCharities Aid Foun

27、dation: World Giving Index 2014; November 2014.Sustainability is shaping the way the world is changing and it will continue to do so in the future.6 Think:Act | Sustainaramaand to actively engage with the outside world. They expect a diverse workplace in terms of gender, ethnicity and educational ba

28、ckground. A management board made up of old white men is no longer capable of attracting the best talent.THE ROLE OF REGULATIONRegulation plays a key part in creating the necessary framework for sustainability. The struggle to introduce relevant legislation has been long and hard, but we are now see

29、ing a tightening of rules across many different regions. Geographical differences are inevitable, of course. In Europe, for example, laws are likely to focus on product lifecycles, CO2 emissions, the circular economy and the share of womenin leadership positions going forward. In the United Statesan

30、d China, regulatory frameworks still tend to be less stringent.Increasing concerns about issues of sustainability are also impacting the ftnancial markets. Investors are expecting more of companies with regard to their sustainability performance and many businesses are responding with strong commitm

31、ents. BlackRocks recent climate crisis letter to CEOs and announcement of its divestment in companies with sustainability risks is clear evidence of this shift. It is also changing the minds of companies that previously considered sustainability too expensive or a nice-to-have. Demand is also growin

32、g for a comparable, standardized approach to sustainability reporting.Companies across industries have increased their aspirations with regard to sustainability and begun announcing measurable targets. Commitments to becomingCO2 neutral or CO2 negative and targets for the share of recycled materials

33、 (recyclates) used, the proportion of women in management positions and the transparency andtraceability of supply chains are no longer uncommon. Businesses have good reason to raise the bar: Customers increasingly view sustainability as a key purchase criterion.2) Put simply, they are willing to pa

34、y the true cost for products and services. And as if that were not enough, NGOs are also holding companies accountable for their environmental shortcomings for example, when Greenpeace activists scaled the Shard in London to protest Shells oil and gas drilling plans in the Arctic in 2013.A NEW SENSE

35、 OF PURPOSEMore and more voices are saying that todays form of capitalism is failing us. The true cost of climate change, social inequality and insufficient governance the risk that these factors represent is not reflected in prices, they claim.Swayed by their arguments or driven by their own sense

36、of commitment, some companies have already abandoned the single-minded, proftt-at-all-costs mentality driving business and found a new sense of purpose for their activities. They have redeftned their core reason for being, aside from questions of growth and proftt, and are focusing on having a posit

37、ive impact on society and the planet. A good example is US outdoor apparel specialist Patagonia. The companys purpose, encapsulated in its mission statement, is to Build the best product, cause no unnecessary harm, use business to inspire, and implement solutions to the environmental crisis. This ev

38、en led to them asking potential customers not to buy their products if they didnt really need them, with their marketing slogan Dont Buy This Jacket.THE ESG FRAMEWORKGrowing pressure from society, regulators and investors has led to strong demand for a standardized framework for measuring corporate

39、responsibility. Dozens of such sustainability frameworks exist around the world, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the UN Global Compact and the ISO standards for environmental protection. These frameworks cover many aspects of sustainability. But they also have some d

40、isadvantages, such as being hard to measure and in some cases difficult to translate into key performance indicators (KPIs) for companies.One framework that does not suffer from these issues is ESG, standing for the three core dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social and corporate governa

41、nce issues. The ESG framework represents a compromise between the SDGs, which are more thematic, and the ISO standards. It is pitched at the right level to enable businesses to develop strategy, set priorities and manage implementation. The ESG framework has a number of advantages over other approac

42、hes: It is holistic, its three pillars covering all aspects of corporate sustainability; it is measurable, as the ESG criteria can be quantifted and used for internal target-setting and steering; it is customizable to different industries and individual companies; and it has already achieved critica

43、l mass in certain sectors. Thus, it is commonly accepted by the investment world and is the preferred framework of institutions such as the WFE (World Federation of Exchanges) and EFFAS (European Federation of Financial AnalystsSocieties). HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 ARandi Kronthal-Sacco and Tensie Whel

44、an (New York University/Stern): Sustainable Market Share Index; July 16, 2020.Sustainarama | Think:Act 7AWhat is ESG?SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK USING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FACTORSGECORPORATE GOVERNANCEStructure & oversightNatural resources & animal welfareENVIRONMENTCompensati

45、on policySupply chain governanceCompliance & business ethicsTransparencyEnergy efficiencyEmissionsPollution/wasteInnovation/ environmental opportunitiesProduct liabilitySociety & communityDiversity & opportunitiesHuman rightsEmployee welfareSSource: Roland BergerSOCIAL8 Think:Act | SustainaramaRebec

46、ca Henderson,Harvard Business SchoolSeptember 2020Rebecca Henderson is the John and Natty McArthur University Professor at Harvard Business School and author of the book Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire. We talked to her about why she believes modern capitalism is failing us and what role b

47、usinesses can play in building a sustainable economy.What makes you think that companies will live up to their role of fighting the urgent problems facing humanity and the Earth?Rebecca Henderson: As I suggest in my book, I think that for some firms theres a strong business case for taking action on

48、 their own. Theres also a strong collective case. The great uncertainty is whether business will recognize the collective case and decide to act on it.Do you think that they want to play this role?Rebecca Henderson: For businesses its all about whether they think they can make money by doing so. The

49、re are businesspeople who are definitely very much aware of the problems that the world faces. The question is, can they find a profitable way to be businesspeople and at the same time address these problems? For me, thats first and foremost a question of whether they can find ways to cooperate.In m

50、y book I talk about the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and how it demonstrates that having businesses come together to set the rules for international trade is clearly advantageous. But businesses coming together to make sure all palm oil is grown sustainably or that theres no child labor i

51、n the supply chain? These are much bigger questions. History suggests that businesses can come together to address these problems, but its usually in a period of crisis. Right now, I feel that we are in such a period of crisis. But how bad does the crisis have to be before businesspeople decide to r

52、eally start acting at scale?You have written that todays form of capitalism is failing to adequately assess and price in the risk from climate change, social inequality and insufficient governance. How so?Rebecca Henderson: Prices traditionally reflect the costs and benefits to the individual actor

53、in a marketplace. But in the case of something like climate change, the harm is inflicted on society in general. No single firm has an incentive to internalize that cost. Traditionally, weve looked to governments to price externalities, to regulate scarcity. We have a particular form of capitalism t

54、hat has been strong on the idea that the only responsibility of the businessperson is to their investors. There are other forms of capitalism that are more wide-ranging, that see firms as responsible to broader society or their employees and customers as well. But if you focus on returns to investor

55、s and only look at the short term, as we have done historically, firms have no incentive to pay attention to these bigger problems.How will the ESG framework evolve over time? Will it enable transformation?Rebecca Henderson: There are two parts to the trans- formation. One is for the investor commun

56、ity to realize that investing in assets that are hard to quantify financially things such as employee wellbeing, corporate reputation, environmental profile may have a material impact on the performance of the firm. Part of the ESG movement is trying to make these non-financial issues more quantifia

57、ble. I believe ESG will move towards finding material, auditable, replicable measures for these non-financial assets. The reason investors would want these ESG metrics is so that they can pick the firms that are at the leading edge of these trends, firms that are beginning to manage for the long ter

58、m and manage with purpose.The other reason that ESG metrics could potentially be so important is because the financial community as a whole has a very strong interest in addressing problems such as climate change, inequality and institutional degradation. If you are a very long-term asset holder and

59、 youre very wealthy, you are effectively forced to hold the entire market. These kinds of asset owners cannot diversify away from the risks that we face. Therefore, in principle, they have strong incentives to try to make the entire system more sustainable. Now, of course, although individual asset

60、owners can be very big, they are still not big enough to move the whole market. Yet by working with other major asset owners andSustainarama | Think:Act 9asset managers they could, in principle, use ESG metrics to really push everyone in that portfolio to move in productive directions.Another reason