亚太地区半导体行业存储器双重拐点

1、存储器双重拐点DRAM正处于强势周期，增长势头强劲，会持续到2021年第四季度：我司认为DRAM正处于本轮周期性回升的早期阶段，目前收入和利润都有所好转。DRAM的倍数疑似达到了“无以复加”的地步，但在当前成交量强劲增长的背景下，DRAM库存还有着重大增长，再加上过去两年有节制的资本支出，DRAM是绝对还有利好空间的。这样的事件则可能给市场带来惊喜，先是定价方面，然后是杠杆。另外，多亏了渠道方面的库存紧张和远程办公的需求，2021年第一季度的季节性下降可能会比平时温和些。2021年DRAM行业的需求有望大幅改善：比如提高了单件含量，增加了出货数量，终端市场的应用变得更丰富，发生了十年一遇的经济

2、大复苏。该细分行业的增长势头应该能持续到明年，预计峰顶会在2021年第四季度。在这海量增长的背景下，所有的新产能都需要尽快投产，顶尖玩家也要能够顺利转移向1znm和1anm。按照过往经验，很可能会发生一些下滑，不过这能帮助稳定平均销售价格（ASP），摆脱这次的短周期。而且反过来还能在进入2022年的拐点后限制利润的损失。从盈利能力的角度看，DRAM目前接近谷底，很可能会在2021年第四季度急剧上涨：不过，因供应不足的干扰，利润缩水得到缓解，从而也帮助了2022年的盈利增长。目前处于周期的哪个位置呢？按照收入同比增长率显示的周期，存储器这个细分行业目前快要到达周期中期：具体信息请看图23。我司预

3、计2021的增长率会维持正增长（但是2022年会是低水平增长），原因是：今年所有终端市场的成交件数恢复增长，并且DRAM的单件含量大幅提高，从2020年的近8GB到2021年的9GB。下一代游戏机上使用了GDDR和高端的存储器，应能让定价达到最佳位置，然后今年取得让人满意的成交件数增长。移动DRAM在5G智能手机和云服务器上的使用量增加，再加上英特尔10nm Ice Lake处理器的助力，比上一代处理器能支持更多的内存通道。该细分行业相对严格的资本支出应该能够在2022年将平均销售价格的损失限制在20-25%的范围内。不过，2021年的基本盘较好，而到了2022年整体增长势头会有所放缓：在这样

4、的背景下2022年不太可能发生重新评价。就现在所处的周期位置，周期性细分行业这时的交易价格通常是介于谷底和周期中期之间。DRAM细分行业不同于其它科技行业的周期性细分行业，其周期可能会更长，因其新技术的迭代要更困难，还有业内对资本支出相对比较严格。这样虽然降低了投资风险，但我司认为“周期性投资”对DRAM股票仍然是非常重要的。资本支出的投资程度最终会决定下一个上下行周期的方向：DRAM细分行业的收入水平2020年因需求受新冠影响而温和下跌，但2021年有望强劲增长23%，主要是因为过去两年（2019-20）DRAM的资本支出较低。我司预计2022年DRAM细分行业的增长会趋于平稳DRAM的资本

5、支出金额和资本支出/收入比率自2019年以来都在下降，据此我司相信当前周期还会持续。DRAM的需求情况我司预计今年DRAM需求将增长近22%：主要驱动因素是个人电脑销售量的复苏、个人电脑单台含量的提高以及终端市场的新应用。过去几年DRAM的主要应用领域一直在逐步变化。两个增长的主要细分产品是图形DRAM和服务器DRAM，两者一共占DRAM市场的38%，预计2021年将超过39%。这些产品的供需动态关系会有些不一样。它们没有现货市场，因为大都需要专门制作。图形DRAM主要受以下两个因素驱动：因图形加速卡新生产线的投产以及近期新款游戏机的发布，GDDR获得增长动力。例如，Nvidia新一代RTX3

6、0系列GPU的主要特色是单件GPU的DRAM含量显著提高和比前代RTX 20更好的性能和功耗。PlayStation 5和Xbox Series X这两款新发布的游戏机都使用了GDDR6同步内存，能给用户带来先进的视觉感受和无缝体验。服务器DRAM是DRAM细分行业中发展最快的子行业之一，随着云市场的发展而繁荣。服务器DRAM是用于执行图形功能的缓冲内存，可提供低电压以最大限度地延长电池寿命。各类服务器DRAM大都需要根据客户所需的特定密度和电压来进行定制。DRAM供应今年DRAM的总体供应量有可能会增加18%：其中一个驱动因素可能是耗损，是领头企业在完成向1znm转移并且开启1anm的过程中

7、所产生的，还有一个可能是晶圆产能的提升，约为7%。如图30，2021年产能增长有可能在2020年的低水平产能增长的基础上加速提升。我司发现DRAM细分行业如同全球半导体行业的其它零件一样，在前几个周期经历大规模资本支出后其资本支出会相当地节制，不过支出水平有点低。但是因2021年预计需求会有强劲增长，资本支出在2021-22年有进一步提高的风险。DRAM库存：仍然非常紧张我司认为DRAM细分行业2021年的四个季度都会基本保持坚挺。通过分析全球DRAM库存数据可以看到库存周数自2020年第四季度就开始持续下降，这也是最近价格上涨（2021年第一季度）的主要原因。另外，目前库存仅剩不到两周，生产

8、已进入旺季。所以按照我司的判断库存数据会是DRAM厂商信心的有力支撑，合同价格的上涨会持续到2021年12月，而2022年DRAM的需求应还是很可观的。两个主要原因是5G产品要按照各自的周期提前进行常规库存补充，以及服务器的主要OEM制造商所需的Ice Lake处理器也需要进一步做好库存准备。韩国DRAM厂商目前表示订单能见度非常高，目前已至2021年第二季度。Memory Double InflectionGrowth momentum in the currently strong DRAM cycle will accelerate into 4Q21: We believe that

9、DRAM is in the early innings of its cycle upturn in terms of revenue as well as profitability. It almost appears to be as good as it gets on the multiples, but DRAM could certainly benefit from significant inventory increase in an environment of very strong volume growth, as well as disciplined cape

10、x for the last two consecutive years. Such an event may result in a positive surprise in pricing and hence margin leverage. Furthermore, thanks to very tight inventory in the channel and the WFH effect, the seasonal decline in 1Q21 may be milder than normal.The demand outlook for the DRAM segment in

11、 2021 will improve sharply: We cite higher content per box, more boxes and more end-market applications, and the biggest economic recovery in over a decade. While the segments growth is likely to remain positive into next year, we expect the growth to peak in 4Q21. In this high-volume growth environ

12、ment, all the new capacity needs to come on stream in a timely fashion, and migration to 1znm and 1anm for the leading players needs to progress smoothly. Based on past experience, it is likely that there could be some slippages, and that could help stabilize the ASP further beyond the near-term cyc

13、le. That in turn should limit the margin erosion after inflection into 2022.From a profitability perspective, DRAM is close to trough, which is likely to be up sharply into 4Q21: However, a supply-led disruption could moderate the margin compression and hence help earnings growth in 2022.Where are w

14、e in the cycle?The Memory segment is currently moving near mid-cycle in the revenue growth cycle on a YoY basis: This is shown in Exhibit 23. We expect the growth rate in 2021 to remain positive (albeit at a lower level in 2022) thanks to:Recovery in unit growth from all end markets this year and a

15、significant increase in DRAM content per box from close to 8GB in 2020 to 9GB in 2021; Consumption of GDDR and high-end memory in next-generation game consoles, which should hit the sweet spot of pricing and hence unit growth this year;Increase in mobile DRAM in 5G smartphones and cloud server with

16、the ramp of Intels 10nm Ice Lake processors, which support additional memory channels than prior generation;Relatively disciplined capex in the segment, which should limit ASP erosion to the 20-25% range in 2022.However, from a strong base in 2021, we expect overall growth momentum to moderate in 20

17、22: In such an environment, any re-rating is unlikely in 2022. At such a point in the cycle, often cyclical segments trade between trough and mid-cycle valuation.Unlike some other cyclical segments in the wider Technology sector, cycles in the DRAM segment may be becoming longer due to difficulties

18、with new technology transition, as well as being a relatively capex-disciplined segment. Though this lowers the investment risk, we believe that “cyclical investing” is still crucial for DRAM stocks.The level of capex investment ultimately determines the next direction of the cycle upturn and downtu

19、rn: The DRAM segment experienced a mild revenue decline in 2020 because of COVIDs impact on demand, but is likely to post a strong gain of 23% in 2021, led by lower DRAM capex in the past two consecutive years (2019-20). We expect the DRAM segments growth to plateau in 2022. Both DRAM capex value an

20、d DRAM capex- to-revenue ratio have been on the decline since 2019, which gives us confidence that the current cycle will be longer.DRAM demandWe expect DRAM demand to grow close to 22% this year: It is being driven by a revival in PC sales, higher content per PC, and new end-market applications. Th

21、e key usage for DRAM has been steadily changing for the past several years. Two key segments of growth are graphics and server DRAM, which combined make up about 38% of the DRAM market. This is expected to exceed 39% in 2021. Supply and demand dynamics of these products are different no spot market

22、exists for these products becausethey tend to be more specialized.Graphics DRAM are driven by two forces: New lines of graphic cards and the near- term release of new gaming consoles are driving GDDR growth.For example, Nvidias new series of RTX 30 graphics processor units (GPUs) featured significan

23、t increase in DRAM content per GPU, improvements in performance and power than its predecessor RTX 20.For new game consoles, both the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X utilize GDDR6 synchronous RAM to facilitate their advanced visuals and seamless gameplay.Server DRAM is one of the fastest-growing DRA

24、M sub-segments, necessitated by the increasing trend to cloud. Server DRAM is the buffer memory that carries out the graphics function, while offering low voltage to maximize battery life. Server DRAMs tend to be more specialized, according to the customers specific density and voltage needs.DRAM su

25、pplyDRAM segment supply is likely to increase 18% this year: This is likely to be driven by shrinkage (from completion of migration to 1znm and the start of 1anm at leading companies) and increases of about 7% in wafer capacity. As shown in Exhibit 30, capacity growth in 2021 is likely to accelerate

26、 from low levels of capacity growth in 2020.Like many other parts of the global semiconductor industry, we find that after large capex in prior cycles, DRAM capex has been fairly disciplined, albeit from a relatively low level. However, with the expectations of strong growth in demand in 2021, there is a risk of furt