“凡是过往皆为序章”；回眸七大调味品公司表现

1、目录TOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 七大调味品公司基本情况概览 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 今年迄今股价表现 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 七大上市调味品公司 1H20 盈利回顾 5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 颐海国际 (1579 HK，买入，目标价 130.00 港元) 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 海天味业 (603288 CH) 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 中炬高新 (600872 CH) 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_

2、250005 涪陵榨菜 (002507 CH) 10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 恒顺醋业 (600305 CH) 11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 天味食品 (603317 CH) 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 千禾味业 (603027 CH) 13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 行业估值比较 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 七大调味品公司背景简介 16七大调味品公司基本情况概览主要的上市调味品公司有七家。规模上，海天味业一马当先；收入增速方面，主打川渝口味、聚焦复合调味品的颐海国际（首次

3、覆盖报告：盛宴才刚开启，三大维度看颐海国际）和天味食品胜出。利润率方面，涪陵榨菜和海天领先；回报率方面，海天和颐海表现突出。调味品公司均以经销商模式为主，千禾味业的直销比例最高，占三分之一。企业股权结构方面，涪陵榨菜和恒顺醋业均为地方国企，其余多为私企，中炬高新有地方政府参股，但非控股大股东。图表 1: 七大调味品公司基本情况概览公司名称颐海国际海天味业中炬高新涪陵榨菜恒顺醋业天味食品千禾味业股票代码1579 HK603288 CH600872 CH002507 CH600305 CH603317 CH603027 CH创立年份IPO 年份200520161955201419931995198

4、82010184020012007201919962016公司总部北京广东佛山广东中山重庆江苏镇江四川成都四川眉山所有权私企私企混合地方国企地方国企私企私企公司主要业务火锅底料方便速食千禾恒泰大红袍好人家恒顺乌江厨邦美味鲜海天海底捞主品牌中式复合调味料酱油蚝油 调味酱酱油鸡精鸡粉食用油榨菜食醋泡菜料酒萝卜酱油火锅底料川菜调料酱油食醋 焦糖色强势区域华南/上海全国华南华南华东西南/东北西部整体收入(RMBm)1H202,21811,5952,5541,198953919 79920194,28219,7974,6751,9901,8321,7271,35520182,68117,0344,166

5、1,9141,6941,4131,06520171,64614,5843,6091,5201,5421,066948整体收入同比变动1H2034.0%14.1%6.8%10.3%7.4%46.0%34.5%201959.7%16.2%12.2%3.9%8.2%22.3%27.2%201862.9%16.8%15.4%25.9%9.9%32.6%12.4%201751.3%17.1%14.3%35.6%6.5%8.3%23.0%核心运营利润率1H2023.3%30.4%21.6%37.9%17.2%22.4%21.8%201923.2%29.1%19.0%33.0%17.4%17.3%15.6%

6、201823.7%27.9%17.6%36.4%16.3%19.8%17.5%201722.5%27.0%16.5%28.9%14.1%17.7%16.7%股权回报率201931.1%35.2%19.0%22.7%15.1%19.9%13.7%201829.5%34.1%18.0%30.1%15.9%25.8%20.3%201718.8%32.4%15.3%23.7%16.7%19.6%14.7%经销+零售经销商为主经销商为主经销商为主经销商为主经销商为主经销商+海底捞销售模式经销商数目(1H20)2,400+6,4331,2541,600+1,2942,0511,2331H20 净增加NA6

7、27203NA24830 93资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际今年迄今股价表现今年迄今，七大调味品公司股价平均升幅 139%，大幅超越 MSCI 中国必选消费指数 40%的涨幅。我们认为，调味品板块主要受益于：（1）调味品高端化、多元化、复合化和消费品牌化的结构性趋势；（2）B 端连锁化、标准化和降低成本的需求；（3）C 端懒宅单身对便捷和品质的诉求；（4）疫情加速居家消费；（5）行业集中度提升，利好头部品牌。图表 2: 今年迄今，七大上市调味品公司股价和指数升幅比较；调味品公司大幅跑赢指数250%200%192%202%122%111%115%93%40%47%20%140%150%100%50

8、%0%海天味业中炬高新颐海国际涪陵榨菜恒顺醋业天味食品千禾味业MSCI中国MSCI中国MSCI必选消费指数 可选消费指数 中国指数资料来源：Bloomberg（股价和指数截至 2020 年 9 月 2 日），浦银国际纸清个护餐饮乳业休闲食品食品饮料调味品图表 3: 今年迄今，主要快消品和餐饮公司股价变动250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%资料来源：Bloomberg（股价截至 2020 年 9 月 2 日），浦银国际七大上市调味品公司 1H20 盈利回顾七大上市调味品公司 1H20 整体收入同比增长 16%，核心运营利润增长 26%，核心运营利润率扩张 2.2 个百分点。整体而言

9、，业务和渠道偏重 C 端家庭餐饮的调味品公司上半年表现更突出，例如天味食品、千禾味业和涪陵榨菜（尤其 2Q20）；颐海 B 端业务因海底捞停店和人流限制等因素表现疲弱（1H20 整体海底捞关联方收入：-30%），但是 C 端渠道（包含方便速食）表现强劲（1H20 整体第三方收入：+82%）。调味品龙头海天味业表现稳健，2Q20 收入/净利润增长 22%/29%，全年收入/净利润增长 15%/18%的目标料可实现。利润率扩张的原因包括：（1）产品或渠道结构变化利好多数公司毛利率，天味食品还上调了部分产品价格；（2）销量提升和费用优化带来规模效应，费率下降。天味食品、千禾味业和涪陵榨菜利润率扩张最

10、为明显。图表 4: 七大上市调味品公司 1H20 业绩概览1H20 (百万人民币) 1H20 同比变动核心核心整体收入毛利净利润整体收入毛利净利润运营利润运营利润海天味业603288 CH11,5954,9783,5253,25314%9%21%18%中炬高新600872 CH2,5541,0875524557%14%20%24%颐海国际1579 HK2,21888051739934%41%49%48%涪陵榨菜002507 CH1,19868745440410%8%27%28%恒顺醋业600305 CH9533891641497%-1%13%4%天味食品603317 CH91939020620

11、046%60%95%95%千禾味业603027 CH79939717515735%44%92%80%整体20,2368,8085,5925,01716%15%26%24%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际图表 5: 七大上市调味品公司 2Q20 业绩快览2Q20 同比变动2Q20核心核心同比整体收入毛利净利润运营利润运营利润率百分点变动海天味业603288 CH22%12%30%29%30.3%1.7中炬高新600872 CH21%30%37%41%21.4%2.5颐海国际1579 HKNANANANANANA涪陵榨菜002507 CH28%24%51%50%37.8%5.7恒顺醋业600305 C

12、H15%7%15%4%15.9%0.0天味食品603317 CH81%109%277%322%21.4%11.1千禾味业603027 CH45%62%148%135%21.5%8.9整体26%21%39%38%27.8%2.6资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际颐海国际 (1579 HK，买入，目标价 130.00 港元)图表 6: 颐海 1H20 净利润增长 48%，因整体第三方收入增长 82%（被整体海底捞关联方收入下降 30%部分抵消），以及渠道组合改变和广告推广费用节省带来核心运营利润率扩张 2.4 个百分点(百万人民币)1H172H171H182H181H192H191H20整体收入6311

13、,0151,0041,6771,6562,6272,218火锅调味料5618357691,1861,0881,7261,215海底捞关联方422449523620694898469第三方139385246567394827746中式复合调味料66120122133200195299第三方5489110119186159284方便速食061108342341658668第三方061104340340639654其他40516274835同比变动整体收入57%48%59%65%65%57%34%火锅调味料58%41%37%42%41%45%-30%海底捞关联方53%46%24%38%33%45%-

14、32%第三方74%36%77%47%60%46%89%中式复合调味料59%29%85%11%63%46%54%方便速食NANANA456%217%93%96%整体毛利2133993636766241,017880同比变动58%42%70%70%72%50%-14%整体毛利率33.8%39.3%36.1%40.3%37.7%38.7%39.7%同比百分点变动0.2-1.92.31.11.6-1.62.0火锅调味料33.0%38.8%35.2%42.0%37.8%40.9%43.5%中式复合调味料40.2%43.7%47.6%50.5%47.8%46.0%44.6%方便速食NA34.6%30.3%

15、31.1%32.8%32.7%31.8%经营费用-99-142-143-262-278-371-362分销成本-69-95-87-154-164-219-211行政开支-30-46-56-108-114-152-152经营费用/收入15.7%14.0%14.2%15.6%16.8%14.1%16.3%分销成本/收入11.0%9.4%8.7%9.2%9.9%8.4%9.5%行政开支/收入4.8%4.6%5.5%6.4%6.9%5.8%6.8%核心经营利润114257220414346646517同比变动106%43%93%61%58%56%49%核心经营利润率18.1%25.3%21.9%24.

16、7%20.9%24.6%23.3%同比百分点变动4.3-1.03.8-0.6-1.0-0.12.4其他利得和收益-1123155324757净财务收入-22294671512有效税率42.8%25.4%25.5%24.7%24.2%29.0%23.9%净利润46214185333270448399同比变动24%44%298%56%46%35%48%净利润率7.4%21.1%18.4%19.9%16.3%17.1%18.0%同比百分点变动-1.9-0.711.0-1.2-2.1-2.81.7摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.050.220.190.340.280.460.41同比变动-17%24%296

17、%56%47%36%47%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际图表 7: 颐海财务预测概要利润表财务和估值比率(百万人民币)201820192020E2021E2022E 201820192020E2021E2022E 收入2,6814,2825,8918,98812,389每股数据 (人民币)销货成本-1,642-2,641-3,488-5,385-7,379摊薄每股盈利0.530.741.081.652.34毛利1,0391,6412,4043,6035,010每股股息0.150.220.330.490.70分销成本-241-383-446-634-810每股净资产2.052.703.264.41

18、6.05行政开支-163-266-353-494-644每股现金1.211.071.422.143.65核心运营利润6349921,6042,4753,555每股销售额2.754.425.638.5811.83其他收入和利得867997132176同比变化 (%)净财务收入1022192845收入62.959.737.652.637.8所得税-183-299-430-659-944毛利69.858.046.449.939.0少数股东权益3076156249384核心运营利润71.156.561.654.343.7净利润5187191,1341,7262,448净利润98.638.857.852

19、.241.8摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.530.741.081.652.34摊薄每股盈利98.439.746.252.241.8费用率 (%)资产负债表员工费用/收入11.510.68.98.07.0(百万人民币)201820192020E2021E2022E广告推广/收入1.61.82.02.22.5现金及现金等价物1,1801,0361,4842,2413,817物流费用/收入2.62.72.62.62.6定期存款0485485485485折旧摊销/收入0.91.31.41.31.1存货276297467713904利润率 (%)贸易应收款207269441692938毛利率38.738.3

20、40.840.140.4预付款及其他应收款213169206315372核心运营利润率23.723.227.227.528.7金融资产597979797有效税率25.027.325.025.025.0流动资产总额1,8812,3543,1804,5436,613净利率19.316.819.319.219.8物业厂房设备3094837711,1291,415回报率 (%)土地使用权75151186218248平均股本回报率29.531.137.743.044.7无形资产518192124平均资产回报率24.324.929.232.333.0其他非流动资产192305305305305派息率39.

21、330.030.030.030.0非流动资产总额5819581,2821,6741,992资产效率资产总额2,4623,3124,4626,2178,605库存天数4740404040贸易应付款189217356529684应收账款天数2320222324其他应付应计款104174236360496应付账款天数3628303030其他流动负债130166166166166现金回收天数3432323334流动负债总额4225577571,0551,345资产周转率 (x)1.31.51.51.71.7非流动负债总额027272727杠杆权益2,0402,7283,6785,1367,233流动比

22、率 (x)4.54.24.24.34.9负债和权益总额2,4623,3124,4626,2178,605资产权益比 (x)1.21.21.21.21.2负债权益比 (x)0.00.00.00.00.0现金流量表净现金/权益 (x)0.60.40.40.50.6(百万人民币)201820192020E2021E2022E再投资经营活动净现金3299511,1831,7712,758资本支出/收入 (%)11.07.36.95.63.7资本支出-295-313-405-506-457资本支出/折旧摊销 (x)12.65.75.04.53.3处置资产所得33000估值其他投资现金31-6371010

23、10市盈率 (x)208.3149.2102.067.047.3投资活动净现金-260-947-395-496-447市净率 (x)53.841.034.025.118.3发行股票净收入00000市销率 (x)40.225.019.612.99.3派付股息-48-149-340-518-734企业价值/收入 (x)42.826.819.512.89.3其他融资现金0-5000企业价值/EBITDA (x)174.3109.568.044.331.0融资活动净现金-48-154-340-518-734股息率 (%)0.10.20.30.40.6现金总额1,1801,0361,4842,2413,

24、817自由现金收益率 (%)0.00.60.71.12.0资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际预测；估值比率基于 2020 年 9 月 3 日收盘价 122.90 港元海天味业 (603288 CH)图表 8: 海天味业 1H20 净利润增长 18%（全年目标：+18%），得益于 2Q20 调味品收入加速增长 23%（vs 1Q20 +6%，因交通运输受阻和餐饮停顿）和 1H20 运营效率提升(百万人民币)1H192H191H201Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20整体收入10,1609,63711,5955,4904,6704,6644,9725,8845,711调味品收入9,6879,

25、07410,9985,2954,3924,3984,6765,5935,404酱油5,9875,6416,6293,2932,6952,6902,9513,4843,145蚝油1,7151,7741,9989247918309459631,035调味酱1,2611,0301,379720541504526731648其他调味品723628992359365374255415577非核心收入473563597195278266296291306同比变动整体收入17%16%14%17%16%17%15%7%22%调味品收入14%16%14%16%13%17%15%6%23%酱油14%14%11%1

26、5%12%14%13%6%17%蚝油21%23%16%25%17%19%28%4%31%调味酱7%12%9%6%9%14%11%2%20%其他调味品19%22%37%23%16%40%3%16%58%整体毛利4,5584,4394,9782,5132,0442,0412,3982,6962,282同比变动11%17%9%15%7%13%19%7%12%整体毛利率44.9%46.1%42.9%45.8%43.8%43.8%48.2%45.8%40.0%同比百分点变动-2.30.3-1.9-0.9-3.8-1.31.80.0-3.8调味品业务毛利率46.4%48.1%44.6%NANANANANA

27、NA同比百分点变动-1.80.2-1.9NANANANANANA运营费用-1,633-1,611-1,454-923-710-894-717-900-554销售费用-1,117-1,046-865-660-457-600-445-625-240管理费用-133-157-159-63-69-89-68-65-94研发费用-271-316-306-126-145-157-160-143-163税金及附加-112-91-123-72-39-48-44-66-57运营费用/收入16.1%16.7%12.5%16.8%15.2%19.2%14.4%15.3%9.7%销售费用/收入11.0%10.9%7.

28、5%12.0%9.8%12.9%9.0%10.6%4.2%管理费用/收入1.3%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.5%1.9%1.4%1.1%1.7%研发费用/收入2.7%3.3%2.6%2.3%3.1%3.4%3.2%2.4%2.9%核心运营利润2,9252,8283,5251,5911,3341,1471,6811,7961,728同比变动19%24%21%19%19%28%21%13%30%核心运营利润率28.8%29.3%30.4%29.0%28.6%24.6%33.8%30.5%30.3%同比百分点变动0.51.81.60.40.72.21.61.61.7净财务收入152141199787

29、3835891108其他利得和收益1801541161057564905857有效税率15.5%16.5%15.1%16.7%14.0%16.0%16.9%16.8%13.3%净利润2,7502,6033,2531,4771,2731,0851,5181,6131,640同比变动22%23%18%23%22%23%23%9%29%净利率27.1%27.0%28.1%26.9%27.3%23.3%30.5%27.4%28.7%同比百分点变动1.31.61.01.31.31.12.00.51.5摊薄每股盈利(人民币)1.020.961.000.550.470.400.560.600.40同比变动2

30、2.7%23.0%-1.8%22.2%23.3%21.2%24.2%9.1%-14.6%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际中炬高新 (600872 CH)图表 9: 中炬高新 1H20 净利润增长 24%，得益于 2Q20 美味鲜收入加速增长 25%（vs 1Q20: -4%）和产品结构提升带动毛利率扩张(人民币百万)1H192H191H201Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20整体收入2,3922,2832,5541,2311,1611,1381,1441,1531,401美味鲜2,2622,2062,4921,1671,0951,0951,1111,1231,369酱油1,4691,4

31、111,583748721670741719864鸡精鸡粉27025721113813212413292119其他522539698281242301238312386非核心收入同比变动1307762646643333032整体收入10%15%7%7%14%15%14%-6%21%美味鲜15%17%10%15%15%14%19%-4%25%酱油10%12%8%10%11%9%15%-4%20%鸡精鸡粉19%19%-22%25%14%19%18%-33%-10%其他29%30%34%27%32%27%33%11%59%整体毛利9538961,087485468431465479608同比变动10

32、%18%14%8%11%17%18%-1%30%整体毛利率39.8%39.3%42.5%39.4%40.3%37.9%40.6%41.5%43.4%同比百分点变动-0.11.12.70.5-0.90.81.42.23.1经营费用-493-467-535-244-249-215-252-227-308销售费用-246-211-303-125-121-99-111-123-181管理费用-144-151-131-66-78-67-84-61-70研发费用-71-76-73-36-35-35-41-31-43税金及附加-32-29-27-17-15-14-16-13-14经营费用/收入20.6%20

33、.5%20.9%19.8%21.4%18.9%22.0%19.7%22.0%销售费用/收入10.3%9.2%11.9%10.1%10.4%8.7%9.7%10.6%12.9%管理费用/收入6.0%6.6%5.1%5.3%6.7%5.9%7.4%5.3%5.0%研发费用/收入3.0%3.3%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.6%2.7%3.0%核心经营利润460429552241219216213252300同比变动10%37%20%20%1%15%68%5%37%核心经营利润率19.2%18.8%21.6%19.6%18.9%19.0%18.6%21.9%21.4%同比百分点变动0.13.0

34、2.42.2-2.30.16.02.32.5净财务费用-31-18-1-17-14-10-8-65其他利得和收益523837262621181819有效税率15.2%14.2%15.1%14.8%15.7%14.1%14.4%14.8%15.3%净利润366352455189177180172206249同比变动8%31%24%12%4%22%42%9%41%净利率15.3%15.4%17.8%15.4%15.2%15.8%15.1%17.9%17.8%同比百分点变动-0.31.92.50.7-1.41.02.92.52.5摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.460.440.570.240.220.23

35、0.220.260.31同比变动8%31%24%13%4%22%42%9%41%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际涪陵榨菜 (002507 CH)图表 10: 涪陵榨菜 1H20 净利润增长 28%，得益于 2Q20 收入增长 28%（vs 1Q20: -8%）以及 1H20 销售费用率下降 5.4 个百分点(百万人民币)1H192H191H201Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20整体收入1,0869041,198527559518385483715核心食品加工收入1,0859021,196NANANANANANA榨菜9247881,036泡菜765182其他开胃小菜856378非核心收

36、入111同比变动整体收入2%6%10%4%1%8%4%-8%28%核心食品加工收入2%6%10%NANANANANANA榨菜3%8%12%泡菜-6%-24%9%其他开胃小菜-3%26%-8%整体毛利636530687306330311219278409同比变动9%10%8%18%1%13%6%-9%24%整体毛利率58.6%58.7%57.4%58.1%58.9%60.0%57.0%57.6%57.2%同比百分点变动3.52.0-1.27.00.42.71.1-0.5-1.7榨菜毛利率60.5%60.6%59.3%NANANANANANA同比百分点变动4.02.0-1.2运营费用-279-23

37、0-233-129-150-94-136-94-139销售费用-230-177-188-106-124-71-106-77-111管理费用-30-33-26-15-15-14-19-11-15研发费用-2-8-20-2-4-4-1-1税金及附加-17-12-17-8-10-5-6-6-12运营费用/收入25.7%25.4%19.5%24.4%26.9%18.1%35.3%19.5%19.4%销售费用/收入21.1%19.6%15.7%20.1%22.1%13.7%27.6%15.9%15.6%管理费用/收入2.8%3.7%2.2%2.8%2.7%2.7%4.9%2.2%2.1%研发费用/收入0

38、.2%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.7%1.1%0.2%0.1%核心运营利润35730045417817921784184270同比变动9%-19%27%47%-13%-1%-45%4%51%核心运营利润率32.9%33.2%37.9%33.7%32.1%41.8%21.7%38.1%37.8%同比百分点变动2.0-10.25.09.9-5.2-3.4-19.34.45.7净财务收入2310111319其他利得和收益134311582222101有效税率15.1%15.0%14.8%15.4%14.8%15.1%14.6%14.9%14.8%净利润31529040415516020387

39、166239同比变动3%-19%28%35%-16%-7%-37%7%50%净利率29.0%32.1%33.8%29.5%28.5%39.2%22.6%34.3%33.4%同比百分点变动0.3-9.84.86.8-5.7-6.1-14.94.84.9摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.400.370.510.200.200.260.110.210.30同比变动3%-18%28%33%-17%-7%-37%5%50%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际恒顺醋业 (600305 CH)图表 11: 恒顺醋业 1H20 净利润增长 4%，主要得益于 2Q20 调味品业务增长 17%（vs 1Q20: +1%）(百万人

40、民币)1H192H191H201Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20整体收入888944953465423450495466487调味品业务收入826894898433393425469438460醋620613651300319305308301350料酒117128149635470588068其他调味品90153986920491045642同比变动整体收入10%6%7%16%4%4%8%0%15%调味品业务收入12%14%9%15%8%8%20%1%17%醋9%4%5%14%4%4%3%0%10%料酒34%21%27%37%30%39%4%27%27%整体毛利39243838

41、9205187200239189200同比变动16%16%-1%27%6%14%18%-8%7%整体毛利率44.2%46.4%40.8%44.1%44.2%44.4%48.2%40.5%41.1%同比百分点变动2.33.9-3.33.80.83.74.0-3.6-3.1调味品毛利率44.6%48.3%41.2%NANANANANANA醋46.6%46.5%44.0%NANANANANANA料酒34.4%38.1%36.6%NANANANANANA运营费用-246-264-225-126-120-118-147-102-123销售费用-148-169-136-77-71-73-96-58-78管

42、理费用-60-55-48-30-30-28-28-25-24研发费用-26-27-28-13-13-11-16-13-15税金及附加-13-13-12-7-6-6-7-6-6运营费用/收入27.8%28.0%23.6%27.2%28.3%26.2%29.6%21.9%25.2%销售费用/收入16.6%17.9%14.3%16.6%16.7%16.3%19.4%12.5%16.1%管理费用/收入6.8%5.9%5.1%6.5%7.1%6.2%5.6%5.3%4.8%研发费用/收入2.9%2.9%3.0%2.7%3.1%2.4%3.3%2.9%3.0%核心运营利润14617416478678292

43、8777同比变动15%17%13%27%3%11%23%11%15%核心运营利润率16.4%18.4%17.2%16.9%15.9%18.2%18.6%18.6%15.9%同比百分点变动0.71.70.81.5-0.21.02.21.70.0净财务收入-3-2-3-2-1-2-1-1-2其他利得和收益2853221018503913有效税率15.8%17.4%16.1%14.9%16.8%15.6%19.9%16.1%16.1%净利润1441821497371109737673同比变动17%0%4%24%11%14%-15%4%4%净利率16.2%19.3%15.7%15.8%16.7%24.

44、2%14.8%16.3%15.1%同比百分点变动0.9-1.1-0.60.91.02.1-4.00.5-1.7摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.140.270.150.090.050.180.090.100.05同比变动-8.6%16.8%3.6%23.5%-38.4%45.1%-14.4%3.7%3.4%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际天味食品 (603317 CH)图表 12: 天味食品 1H20 净利润增长 95%（全年目标：+15%），得益于同期收入增长 46%（全年目标：+30%）、毛利率扩张 3.7 个点（部分产品价格上调）以及运营效率提升(百万人民币)1H192H191H201Q192Q19

45、3Q194Q191Q202Q20整体收入6291,098919306324448650334585调味品业务6291,088919306323443645334585火锅底料254562380130124232331135245川菜调料324440489153171189251177313其他528649232923642227非核心收入0100005500同比变动整体收入32%17%46%25%39%15%19%9%81%调味品业务33%16%46%26%40%14%18%9%81%火锅底料18%20%50%6%33%8%30%4%98%川菜调料51%45%51%54%48%26%64%16

46、%83%整体毛利244401390122122159241135255同比变动34%7%60%31%36%2%10%11%109%整体毛利率38.7%36.5%42.4%39.7%37.7%35.5%37.1%40.4%43.5%同比百分点变动0.5-3.53.71.8-0.8-4.3-2.90.75.8运营费用-138-208-184-49-89-69-139-54-130销售费用-94-147-125-29-64-44-103-32-93管理费用-27-37-36-12-15-15-22-14-22研发费用-11-15-14-5-6-7-8-6-8税金及附加-6-9-9-2-4-3-6-3

47、-6运营费用/收入21.9%19.0%20.0%16.0%27.5%15.4%21.4%16.1%22.2%销售费用/收入14.9%13.4%13.6%9.6%19.9%9.8%15.9%9.5%15.9%管理费用/收入4.3%3.4%3.9%4.0%4.6%3.3%3.4%4.1%3.8%研发费用/收入1.7%1.4%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.2%1.8%1.5%核心运营利润10619320673339010281125同比变动40%-6%95%29%75%-15%5%12%277%核心运营利润率16.8%17.5%22.4%23.7%10.2%20.1%15.7%24.3%21.

48、4%同比百分点变动1.0-4.25.60.72.1-7.0-2.20.511.1净财务收入234111122其他利得和收益1417231306111212有效税率15.1%13.8%14.9%15.0%15.5%14.9%12.8%14.9%14.9%净利润10319420073299310177123同比变动41%0%95%37%52%2%-2%5%322%净利率16.3%17.7%21.7%24.0%9.0%20.7%15.6%23.0%21.0%同比百分点变动1.0-3.05.42.10.7-2.5-3.3-1.012.0摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.270.470.420.200.070.

49、220.250.190.23同比变动35%-8%56%43%17%-8%-8%-7%234%资料来源：公司数据、浦银国际千禾味业 (603027 CH)图表 13: 千禾味业 1H20 净利润增长 80%，主要得益于收入增长 35%和调味品毛利率扩张 3 个百分点(百万人民币)1H192H191H201Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20整体收入594761799291303336425359440调味品业务589755794288301333422357437酱油356479494174183208271219275食醋99121157455452697483焦糖色78885941

50、3841472335其他607389312935384346非核心665332323同比变动整体收入24%30%35%18%30%26%33%24%45%调味品业务24%30%35%18%30%26%34%24%45%酱油37%37%39%32%42%34%40%26%51%食醋21%26%59%8%35%7%45%63%55%焦糖色-18%-2%-25%-20%-15%-1%-3%-42%-7%整体毛利277349397140137156194177221同比变动33%25%44%31%34%25%25%26%62%整体毛利率46.6%45.9%49.7%48.3%45.0%46.4%45.

51、5%49.2%50.2%同比百分点变动3.0-1.63.14.51.5-0.1-2.80.95.2调味品业务毛利率46.9%45.9%49.8%NANANANANANA同比百分点变动3.5-2.13.0运营费用-186-229-223-87-99-101-129-97-126销售费用-140-169-169-66-74-73-96-74-96管理费用-24-29-29-12-13-14-15-14-15研发费用-16-23-17-7-9-8-15-5-12税金及附加-5-8-7-2-3-4-3-4-4运营费用/收入31.3%30.1%27.9%30.0%32.5%29.9%30.3%26.9%

52、28.7%销售费用/收入23.5%22.2%21.2%22.7%24.3%21.8%22.5%20.6%21.7%管理费用/收入4.1%3.9%3.6%4.1%4.2%4.3%3.5%3.9%3.4%研发费用/收入2.7%3.1%2.1%2.4%3.0%2.5%3.5%1.5%2.7%核心经营利润91120175533855658094同比变动26%5%92%17%42%31%-10%51%148%核心经营利润率15.3%15.8%21.8%18.2%12.5%16.4%15.2%22.3%21.5%同比百分点变动0.3-3.76.5-0.21.10.7-7.44.08.9净财务收入44313

53、3122其他利得和收益858720535有效税率15.0%14.1%14.5%15.8%14.0%15.5%13.0%15.3%13.9%净利润87111157513749617087同比变动-36%6%80%-54%44%29%-7%39%135%净利率14.7%14.6%19.6%17.4%12.1%14.7%14.4%19.6%19.7%同比百分点变动-13.6-3.25.0-27.41.20.3-6.22.27.6摊薄每股盈利(人民币)0.180.230.230.150.040.110.130.150.09同比变动-56%-23%27%-56%-54%-9%-32%0%139%资料来源

54、：公司数据、浦银国际行业估值比较全球主要调味品公司估值比较；中国主要快消品和餐饮品牌估值比较。图表 14: 全球主要调味品公司估值表消费行业股票代码市值收入增幅市盈率每股盈利增幅股权回报率息税前利润率(US$m)(%)(%)(%)(%)(x)(x)(x)(x)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%) CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22ECY19 CY20E CY21E CY22ECY19 CY20ECY19 CY20ECY19 CY20E中国海天603288 CH87,53116.215.416.516.8112.191.076.263.822.223.235.233.429.131.3颐

55、海1579 HK16,60159.736.539.029.3147.3107.178.059.938.137.531.131.425.025.9中炬高新600872 CH8,84512.214.219.819.584.469.255.444.818.222.019.019.519.020.8天味603317 CH6,16722.344.439.833.1137.0101.676.056.43.734.919.918.117.318.0涪陵榨菜002507 CH5,8783.914.115.114.866.252.344.337.3-8.326.822.722.733.038.5千禾味业6030

56、27 CH4,07927.229.826.524.6136.684.864.449.3-18.261.213.715.3NA18.6恒顺醋业600305 CH3,6588.213.015.115.477.265.657.749.16.417.815.114.018.619.1中值16.215.419.819.5112.184.864.449.36.426.819.919.522.020.8日韩龟甲万2801 JP10,7434.0-6.67.74.141.746.239.235.95.1-9.79.99.48.49.2味之素2802 JP10,435-2.1-5.32.92.536.229.9

57、23.018.711.721.13.65.57.15.3好侍食品2810 JP3,3800.7-2.73.33.026.436.126.223.228.1-26.94.84.3NANA可果美2811 JP2,9350.00.11.3-1.028.733.333.534.15.0-13.79.88.0NANA丘比2809 JP2,824-4.1-4.03.91.715.531.318.517.52.3-50.37.84.75.74.5有明2815 JP2,243-0.4-10.18.87.113.128.727.024.2142.3-54.512.18.3NANAS&B 食品2805 JP629

58、5.3-16.2-5.32.89.710.19.28.465.0-3.811.611.7NANA永谷元2899 JP401NANANANA54.0NANANA-25.4NA3.6NANANA荏原食品2819 JP2230.20.51.82.615.712.811.310.5-16.823.36.26.9NANA不倒翁007310 KS1,8105.07.63.03.520.114.914.513.9-39.034.67.810.66.3NA大象001680 KS8190.73.93.83.39.17.07.67.265.230.110.813.44.4NA中值0.5-3.43.12.720.1

59、29.820.818.15.1-6.87.88.26.35.3欧美雀巢NESN SW348,9471.2-7.82.23.725.026.124.422.79.7-4.123.126.117.617.5联合利华UNA NA156,9404.8-6.23.12.519.920.319.218.26.4-2.245.846.219.119.1卡夫亨氏KHC US41,739-4.92.4-1.81.012.013.213.613.3-19.3-9.53.75.620.319.8味好美MKC US27,424-1.23.8-0.32.238.635.536.934.66.58.621.220.718

60、.319.0康尼格拉CAG US18,47924.58.9-6.12.519.714.915.514.3-13.532.211.512.715.517.3金宝汤CPB US15,531-9.21.3-6.60.819.916.518.117.0-0.421.231.144.715.917.1B&G 食品BGS US1,959-2.416.3-8.0-1.118.614.015.614.6-11.433.48.916.514.714.9中值-1.22.4-1.82.219.916.518.117.0-0.48.621.220.717.617.5资料来源：彭博普遍预期（截至 2020 年 9 月