云南限电影 响持续农化景气度继续上行

1、1、本周观点：云南限电影响持续，农化景气度继续上行 4云南限电影响或延续至 7 月末，工业硅供给紧缺或超预期 4草甘膦持续涨价，本轮景气度或超 2013-2014 年景气周期 5钾肥行业景气有望继续维持 52、重点公司跟踪 8万华化学 8华鲁恒升 8扬农化工 8新和成 9合盛硅业 9玲珑轮胎 103、板块估值及个股行情 114、化工产品价格回顾 14化工子板块动态 15图表 1：工业硅价格 4图表 2：有机硅价格价差 4图表 3：草甘膦价格 5图表 4：草甘膦库存 5图表 5：海外氯化钾价格 6图表 6：国内氯化钾价格 6图表 7: 可比公司估值表 7图表 8：上周各行业相对沪深 300 涨跌

2、幅 11图表 9：石油化工和基础化工行业相对涨跌幅 11图表 10：基础化工子行业涨跌幅 12图表 11: 上周涨幅前十个股（截至 5 月 28 日） 12图表 12: 上周跌幅前十个股（截至 5 月 28 日） 12图表 13：基础化工板块动态市盈率变化（TTM，剔除负值） 13图表 14：基础化工板块相对沪深 300 估值变化 13图表 15: 化工产品涨跌幅排名表 14图表 16: 月度、季度、年度化工品涨/跌居前情况 14图表 17: 聚氨酯价格走势 15图表 18: 钛白粉价格走势 16图表 19: 锂电化学品价格走势 17图表 20: 农药价格走势 18图表 21: 饲料添加剂价格

3、走势 19图表 22: 化纤价格走势 20图表 23: 氟硅化工价格走势 20图表 24: 煤化工价格走势 21图表 25：塑料价格走势 22图表 26：化肥价格走势 23图表 27: 氯碱价格走势 23图表 28：橡胶价格走势 24图表 29：其他化工品价格走势 2418,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000-2016-05(元/吨)2016-092017-01金属硅5532017-052017-092018-012018-05 2018-092019-01金属硅4412019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-01 2021-05

4、40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-(元/吨)2016/052016/11DMC价差（右轴）2017/052017/112018/05 2018/112019/052019/11(元/吨)2020/05DMC2020/1130,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00002021/0570000 60000 50000 40000 30000200001000002021年2020年2019年 * 农用化工合成纤维及树脂化学原料化学制品528（元/股）涨幅幅(pp t)对涨幅涨幅(pp t)涨幅(pp t)涨幅(

5、pp t)002386.S Z天原股份11.3261.0%57.3877.99%74.0465.5561.65000635.S Z英力特11.7330.6%26.9829.61%25.6722.6021.07600328.S H中盐化工11.8729.3%25.6640.47%36.5318.7448.07300221.S Z银禧科技7.4522.7%19.0911.19%7.250.58-50.64600844.S H丹化科技5.3022.4%18.7629.27%25.33-22.82-1.25002341.S Z新纶科技3.8421.9%18.2617.79%13.85-62.29-20

6、.49600078.S H*ST 澄星2.3618.0%14.36-18.34%-22.28-84.06-70.14300243.S Z瑞丰高材13.3617.0%13.350.91%-3.0447.03-39.99002591.S Z恒大高新6.7716.7%13.0818.77%14.83-55.98-9.00000818.S Z航锦科技24.3416.6%12.9911.60%7.66-7.81-13.93 528代码公司股价近一周绝对近一周相对沪深300涨近一个月绝近一个月相对沪深30020年至今相对沪深30021年至今相对沪深300（元/股）涨幅幅(ppt)对涨幅涨幅(ppt)涨幅(

7、ppt)涨幅(ppt)002450.S Z康得退0.20-23.1%-26.72-83.61%-88.14-124.21-124.21002455.S Z百川股份6.61-16.1%-19.792.42%-2.11-21.05-16.38002470.S Z*ST金正1.40-8.5%-12.14-9.09%-13.62-77.26-20.52002411.S Z延安必康4.77-8.4%-12.09-1.04%-5.57-99.37-38.16000155.S Z川能动力15.14-7.0%-10.6425.96%21.43219.7652.52000420.S Z吉林化纤3.10-6.1%

8、-9.7011.91%7.3813.6334.13300192.S Z科德教育11.24-4.7%-8.31-14.72%-19.25-49.72-55.11600803.S H新奥股份17.14-4.5%-8.150.18%-4.3534.46-3.77002324.S Z普利特13.29-4.5%-8.11-8.25%-12.7861.84-35.44000953.S Z河化股份5.22-4.0%-7.694.61%0.08-9.61-7.36代码公司股价近一周绝对近一周相对沪深300涨近一个月绝近一个月相对沪深30020年至今相对沪深30021年至今相对沪深300 基础化工板块估值均值7

9、2625242322212 周度涨幅前十单位最新价格 周涨跌幅 月涨跌幅 季涨跌幅 年涨幅 2021年均价 2020年均价 2019年均价 2018年均价 2017年均价 2016年均价 2015年均价 2014年均价 2013年均价黄磷元/吨23,00026.4%32.2%34.5%38.6%17,07615,62416,51714,94615,13512,38913,37914,74415,656尿素（波罗的海)美元/吨37013.8%15.3%8.8%94.7%314220239248216193268311327纯吡啶元/吨22,00012.8%12.8%15.8%35.4%19,15

10、517,05019,85122,08725,02916,64624,01033,85833,519液氯元/吨1,24810.2%-12.8%-21.6%136.8%1,4388253744956320632756622甲醇元/吨2,8007.7%12.2%13.4%75.0%2,4821,8752,2363,0982,7712,0362,1382,6572,954六氟磷酸锂元/吨285,0007.5%26.7%42.5%249.7%189,16782,971102,029125,952237,885395,946丁烷(地中海）美元/吨4386.8%-10.8%-33.4%46.0%544393

11、438535499404453801863丁二烯（C FR ）美元/吨9706.6%7.8%7.8%304.2%8966691,0491,3961,1408881,2841,469丁二烯元/吨7,5005.6%8.7%-11.8%66.7%7,2296,2819,54811,04412,3389,2477,1009,45810,810硝酸元/吨2,2605.1%0.4%15.9%73.8%2,0461,5191,7491,7531,6071,1541,3751,4881,687周度跌幅前十单位最新价格 周涨跌幅 月涨跌幅 季涨跌幅 年涨幅 2021年均价 2020年均价 2019年均价 201

12、8年均价 2017年均价 2016年均价 2015年均价 2014年均价 2013年均价B D O元/吨20,500-18.0%-29.3%33.1%109.2%21,8109,7499,55111,84811,1418,2238,90011,65414,163维生素D 3元/吨115,000-13.2%-17.9%-17.9%-58.2%131,429174,135230,577412,404269,26996,76496,308122,86584,788顺酐元/吨10,100-12.2%-9.8%-15.1%66.9%9,8587,0086,7088,6589,2356,5896,5541

13、0,38611,636双酚A元/吨22,650-11.4%-16.1%-5.6%127.6%22,94811,52510,59713,61710,6978,6228,73513,28613,132动力煤元/吨853-10.0%6.2%47.6%67.5%780576592651644475413523589维生素C元/吨47,500-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%41.8%50,73828,97125,14443,35665,67328,85827,38527,53824,000环氧丙烷元/吨16,400-9.4%-12.8%-13.2%76.3%18,49512,25110,12212,078

14、10,9229,19210,57813,17712,490聚醚多元醇元/吨16,450-9.4%-11.3%-15.4%82.8%18,52412,59910,61312,64411,4199,682苯胺元/吨9,990-9.1%-8.3%-12.0%112.1%10,4855,8916,5939,8139,7826,6186,43010,22311,528丁酮元/吨8,400-8.7%-6.1%1.8%34.9%8,1217,0197,6958,1838,4685,7596,3309,7198,665 40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0

15、0016-0116-0416-0716-1017-0117-04鞋底原液17-0717-1018-0118-0418-0718-1019-01TPU 19-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-106,0001,00021-0116-0116-0416-0716-1017-01浆料（干法）17-0417-0717-1018-0118-0418-0718-1019-01聚醚多元醇19-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0460,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan

16、-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-2150,00040,00030,00020,00010,000010-01(元/吨)(元/吨)10-0711-0111-0712-0112-07纯M D I13-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-01聚合M D I16-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-

17、0120-07(元/吨)TD I26,000(元/吨)21,00016,00011,00021-0110-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-07软泡聚醚13-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-07硬泡聚醚17-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121,00016,00011,0006,0001,000B D O21,00019,00017,00015,00013,00011,0009,0007,0005,00010-01(元/吨)(元/吨)10-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-

18、01环氧丙烷13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-01D M F17-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-01(元/吨)2,600120(元/吨)31,0002,4002,2002,0001,8001,6001,40010080604026,00021,00016,0001,20016-0116-0416-0716-1017-0117-0417-0717-108-01-040701,000 200,000160,000120,00080,00040,000301,000251,000201,000151,000101,00

19、051,0008(元/平方米) 7654321(元/吨)(元/吨)12-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0101,000电池级碳酸锂N C M 523动力型三元材磷酸铁锂正极材49,00048,50048,00047,500451,000401,000351,000301,0(元/吨)(元/吨)47,00046,50046,00045,50045,00015-0115-0415-0715-1016-016-04-071044,500 16-0116

20、-0416-0716-10功夫菊酯17-0117-0417-0717-1018-0118-0418-0718-1019-0119-04 19-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0451,00041,00031,00021,00011,0001,000400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000015-01(元/吨)(元/吨)15-0716-0116-07草甘膦17-0117-0718-0118-07草铵膦19-0119-0720-0120-07250,000200,000150,000100,

21、00050,000021-0116-0116-0416-0716-1017-0117-0417-0717-1018-01吡虫啉18-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-04120,000110,000100,00090,00080,00070,00060,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000016-01(元/吨)(元/吨)16-0416-0716-1017-0117-0417-0717-1018-01麦草畏18-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419

22、-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0125,00020,00015,00010,0005,00060,00055,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,00021-0416-0116-0416-0716-1017-01多菌灵17-0417-0717-1018-0118-0418-0718-10百菌清19-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-04吡唑醚菌酯20-0720-1021-0121-04016-01(元/吨)(元/吨)16-0416-0716-1017-0117-0417-07

23、17-1018-0118-04百草枯18-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-10250,000230,000210,000190,000170,000150,000130,000110,00090,00070,00050,00021-0121-0412-0112-0713-01维生素B1 13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-01维生素B3 16-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-01维生素B5 19-0720-0120-07 21-01016-0116-0416-0716-1017-0117-0417-

24、0717-1018-01三氯蔗糖18-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0440,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000012-01(元/吨)(元/吨)12-0713-0113-0714-0114-07味精15-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-01黄原胶18-0719-0119-0720-0120-07120,00010

25、0,00080,00060,00040,00020,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00021-01(元/吨)012-01(元/吨)12-0713-01赖氨酸13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-01苏氨酸16-0717-0117-0718-0118-07蛋氨酸19-0119-0720-0120-071,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,00021-01012-01(元/吨）12-0713-01维生素C13-0714-0114-0715-011

26、5-0716-01维生素E16-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-01维生素A19-0720-0120-0721-0140,000(元/吨)35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000010-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-01金属硅13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-01有机硅D M C 17-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-07(元/吨)21-0123,00021,00019,00017,00015,00013,00011,0009,0007

27、,0005,00010-0110-0711-0111-07涤纶P O Y12-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-01涤纶D TY15-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-07涤纶FD Y19-0119-0720-01 20-0721-0125,00020,00015,00010,0005,000012-01(元/吨)(元/吨)12-0713-0113-0714-0114-07棉花15-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-07棉浆19-0119-0720-0120-0721-0114,00012,00010,00

28、08,0006,0004,0002,000080,00070,00060,00050,000016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000010-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-01萤石13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-07氢氟酸18-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0790,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000021-0110-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-

29、01氨纶40D13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-07锦纶切片18-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-07(元/吨)21-0140,00030,00020,00010,00010-01(元/吨)(元/吨)10-0711-0111-0712-0112-07px 13-0113-0714-0114-07P TA15-0115-0716-0116-0717-01M EG17-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0760,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00035,00030,0002

30、5,00020,00015,00010,00021-0105,000010-0110-0711-0111-07R 2212-0112-0713-0113-07R 3214-0114-0715-0115-0716-01R 134a16-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0110-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-01己内酰胺13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-07丙烯腈18-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0110-01(元/吨)(元/吨

31、)10-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-01粘胶短纤13-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-07粘胶长丝18-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-016,000(元/吨)5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000010-0110-0711-0111-0712-01甲醇12-0713-01 13-0714-0114-0715-0115-07二甲醚16-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-01甲醛19-0720-0120-0721-0114,00012,00010,0008,00

32、06,0004,0002,000010-01(元/吨)10-0711-0111-0712-01醋酸12-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-01醋酐15-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-01醋酸乙烯18-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0110-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-01P A 6615-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-07 19-0119-0720-0120-0721-0140,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,

33、00010,0005,000050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000010-01(元/吨)(元/吨)10-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-07PC 14-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-07双酚A18-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0130,000(元/吨)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000012-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-07P M M A15-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-07M M A

34、19-0119-0720-0120-0720,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,00021-01(元/吨)8,00010-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-01P O M15-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-011,0005000液氯 10-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-07纯碱14-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-01烧碱18-0719-

35、0119-0720-0120-076,0005,0004,0003,00021-0110-0110-0711-0111-0712-01PVC （电石法）12-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-01PVC （乙烯法）17-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-014,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050006,000(元/吨)5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000(1,000)电石10-0110-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-01(元/吨)10-0711-0111-07尿素（小颗粒）磷酸二铵D