数据中心：展望与下一个5年

1、Data Centers CAPRE Ashburn2020 Outlook and the Next 5 Years29 January 2020 Equity Research AmericasSami BadriCommunications Equipment & Infrastructure Research Tel: + 1 (212) 538-1727 HYPERLINK mailto:ahmedsami.badri ahmedsami.badriDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DI

2、SCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OFNON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affe

3、ct the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 2020 Credit Suisse Research Coverage ModelCommunications InfrastructureCommunications EquipmentData Center Capex & Construction TrendsCloud Network Architecture Shift

4、s Led by Equipment Affecting Capacity NeedsEnterprise & Cloud IT SpendCustomers SharedTelecom Spending Trends and UpgradesCoverage Model Structured to Capture Both Communications Sectors with StreamlinedIT Spend, Cloud, & Telecom Visibility modeled across both sectors.Source: Credit Suisse Research.

5、 2020 Industry Pulse Check:How would you characterize the data center industry growth today?Moderate or Significant?Source: Credit Suisse Research 2020 Industry Pulse Check:Do you expect to see the record high data center absorption levels seen in 2018 again within any of the next two years?Yes, No,

6、 (or Maybe)?Source: Credit Suisse Research52.7%US Hyperscale Capex Spend Growth Sharply Decelerated in 2019 with a Slight Acceleration in 2020E$100$90Capex + Capital Leases ($bn)$8021.6%$70$607.7%$50$40$30$20$1060%50%Y/Y Growth (%)40%30%20%1.1%3.1%10%0%-10%-20%$020152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E-

7、30%7.0%14.5%29.6%Hyperscale Capex includes Capital Expenditure investments into office space, I.T. equipment, data center infrastructure, land, and other major ticket items. Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Capex figures include both Capex and Capital Leases.Source: Factset, Credit Suisse Research.

8、Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu are Consensus Estimates.U.S. MTDC Capex Spend Growth Decelerated in 2019; Driven by Digestion of Capacity and Decelerated Hyperscale Demand2015201620172021E2022E20182019E2020E-4.7%-4.2%-2.6%43.5%45.0%21.6%2.7%5.4%$660%50%Capex + Capital Leases ($bn)$5Y/Y Growth (%)40%$430%20%

9、$310%$20%-10%$1-20%$0-30%Source: Factset, Credit Suisse Research, Company Data. Forecasts are consensus estimates. 2020 MTDC Construction Intensity in the Top 12 U.S. DC Markets Has Compressed from 12.8%in 1H18 and headed to Credit Suisse Estimated 2.5% at the end of20206,0005,00014.0%5.1%4.2%4.9%6.

10、1%2.5%3.5%8.3%11.2%11.7%12.8%12.0%Construction Intensity (%)10.0%4,000MW (MW)3,0002,0008.0%6.0%4.0%1,0002.0%-2014201520161H 201720171H 201820181H 2019 2019E2020E0.0%Total Inventory (MegaWatts)Total Under ConstructionIntensitySource: JLL Research, Credit Suisse Research. 2020 Data Center Trading Mult

11、iples Have Recently Reached All-time Highs Despite Slower Industry Growth25.0 x23.0 x21.0 x19.0 xEV/FY2 EBITDA17.0 x15.0 x13.0 x11.0 xDC EBITDA Multiples Have Recently Traded Near All-time Highs9.0 x7.0 x5.0 xDec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19QTSCORCONESWCHEQIXD

12、LRINXNAverageSource: Factset, Credit Suisse Research. 2020 Credit Suisse CIO IT SurveyJanuary 2020 ResultsSource: Credit Suisse Research 2020 Credit Suisse CIO IT Survey Question: What percent of your IT budget do you currently spend on public cloud (SaaS/IaaS/PaaS)? How do you expect it to change o

13、ver the next year and 3 years?42%38%31% 32%2622%12%9%3%0%3% 1% 1%14%5%9% 25%26%Current1 Year3 YearsUnder 10%10-20%21-30%31-40%41-50%Over 50%Today, less than one-fifth of CIOs plan to spend over 20% of their IT budget on public cloud services. In 3 years, almost two-thirds of CIOs plan to spend over

14、20%, implying a doubling of spend on public cloud services.Source: Credit Suisse Research CIO/IT Survey January 2020 2020 Credit Suisse CIO IT Survey Question: Which of the following is/are your preferred IaaS / PaaS cloud vendor(s) of choice?82%75%68% 69%24%20%21%9%11%6%Oracle0%4%0% 0%AzureAWSGCPIB

15、M CloudVirtustreamAlibabaJanuary 2019January 2020CIOs have preferred the largest cloud vendors (AWS, Azure) by a significant margin. GCP, IBM, and others have lost traction in 2020 survey.Source: Credit Suisse Research CIO/IT Survey January 2020 2020 Credit Suisse CIO IT Survey Question: For your pr

16、ivate cloud deployments within your hybrid clouds, will you be deploying your equipment into Colocation or outsourced wholesale data center facilities?36%43%33%21%19%20%41%39%43%3%0%5%YesNoStill underconsideration January 2019July 2019January 2020NeverCIOs remain interested in deploying into colocat

17、ion and outsourced data center infrastructures as of January 2020, but are still considering various options.Source: Credit Suisse Research CIO/IT Survey January 2020 2020 Credit Suisse CIO IT Survey Question: Are you using multiple public colocation and / or outsourced wholesale data center provide

18、rs for your hybrid cloud?64%69%61%39%36%31%YesNoJanuary 2019July 2019January 2020Source: Credit Suisse Research CIO/IT Survey January 202061% of CIOs have recently expressed interest in using a single colocation provider for their outsourced workloads compared to 36% a year ago. Colocation is turnin

19、g into a “winner takes all” market, favoring ecosystem rich providers.Credit Suisse CIO IT Survey Question: Will you eventually shutdown the majority of your owned data center infrastructure and outsource your data center needs through colocation providers? 2020 39%38%28%27%24%20%15%13% 135%1%1%23%2

20、5%28%Yes, probably most capacity will be outsourcedYes, shutting downfew data centersNo, no plans to shutdown our data centersStill underconsiderationNever shutting down any of our owned and managed data centerJanuary 2019July 2019January 2020facilities53% of CIOs today plan on either fully outsourc

21、ing their data center infrastructure needs and plan on shutting down a few facilities versus 43% a year ago. But CIOs have recently highlighted a lot more is still under consideration before decidingSource: Credit Suisse Research CIO/IT Survey January 2020 2020 Credit Suisse Forecasts:2020 Outlook a

22、nd the Next 5 YearsSource: Credit Suisse Research 2018 Drivers 2019 Drivers 2020-25 DriversBusiness drivers will include as-a- Service on-ramps, further extending the importance of interconnection dense colocation facilities and ecosystems.We Dont See Colocation Adoption Slowing U.S. Data Center Gro

23、wth Stable, Supported by Next Wave of Enablers, Including As-a-Service CosSource: Company data, Credit Suisse Research.Enterprise Colocation Adoption Has Accelerated Driven by New SaaS Market Entries and Service Providers, In Addition to Cloud/SDN On-Ramp Deployments9488807748414026222211995422Enter

24、prises Are Seeking Application Service Ecosystems, Formed by:Cisco, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and others all deploying PoPs to win enterprise business with little adoption resistence.1009080# of PoPs706050403020100Source: Credit Suisse Estimates, Cloudscene, Company data.YTD 2019 2020 Public versus Pr

25、ivate Data Center Performance; There Are Some Differentiators Based on Our Industry ChecksPublicly Traded Data CentersRetail colocation-dense operators: Sustained growth and stable pricing power.Wholesale providers: Expect negative pricing on lease renewals, but consistent overall business strength.

26、Private Data CentersRetail colocation providers: need to compete on price, services (cloud, SDN, SaaS), and pricing.Wholesale providers: continue strong execution with more growth ahead, especially in Tier 2 and 3 markets, but at pressured returns.Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company data. 2020 C

27、oncluding HighlightsFor CIOs, MSFT and AWS remain the major public clouds of choice.We continue to see enterprises and clouds outsourcing their data center infrastructures over the next 5 years, albeit at slower rates in 2020.Software as-a-Service On-Ramps will be key drivers for the next wave of si

28、gnificant colocation capacity.Private data center market remains attractive, but operators/investors must be prudent and disciplined. 2020 Questions & AnswersContact Information:Sami Badri+1 212 538 1727 HYPERLINK mailto:ahmedsami.badri ahmedsami.badri 2020 Most Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat about

29、Tier 2 and 3 markets? What is your outlook for those markets?Whendoyouthinkcloudcapexwillgrowandbenefit data center operators at 2018 scale?Howdoyouthink5GandEdgeComputingwillimpact data center footprints?Appendix 2020 Introduction Credit Suisse Research Coverage ModelCompanies CoveredResearch Core

30、FocusResponsibilities and Process Include:Core Objective: Conduct research on the broader technology and data center sectors using industry data, proprietary data, and financial models to make rating and valuation decisions for investors.Process: Includes heavy ingestion of industry data points from

31、 all adjacent industries (including real estate, industrials, utilities, broader tech.).Clients: Asset Managers, Private Equity, VentureCapital, Sovereign Wealth, Pension, and Hedge Funds seeking to deploy/invest capital.1)Ultimately: Trying to value publicly traded companies such as Equinix, Digita

32、l Realty, Cisco, others as precisely as possible.Coverage Model Structured to Capture Entire Technology Sector Trends withStreamlined IT, Cloud, & Telecom Spending, with deep industry insight. Data Centers Key Differences Between Public and Privately Held Data Centers, Publicly Traded Operators in P

33、osition of Strength CurrentlyGiven the formations of recent private data centers from a variation of larger company divestitures (telecoms), mergers (managed services, colocation), and demand surges from wholesale and retail providers, inquiries from private equity, asset manager and fixed income in

34、stitutional investors have increased significantly with a common theme across all the inquires is to understand the key differences between the private and publicly traded data center operators. Below we highlight the five key differences between the two types of providers based on our industry cont

35、acts and our general sector observations, collected through industry conferences, reported metrics, and some other sources.FactorDetails on Public / Private Operators Offering Retail & Wholesale Colocation1) Business SegmentsAlmost all publicly traded data center operators primarily offer space, pow

36、er, cooling, and interconnection. Private operators offer these services in addition to web/cloud hosting, managed services, security services, construction services, and other. This means private operators generally have higher OPEX levels to support the extra staff to service these extra segments

37、in cases that the services are more OPEX intensive than the standard colocation business, pertaining mainly to web hosting and managed services. Wholesale is lean.2) Location & MarketsPublicly traded operators predominantly focus/deploy into Tier 1 or 2 markets given enterprise customer and cloud av

38、ailability zone concentrations. Tier 1 & 2 markets are also more interconnection dense compared to lower tier metros/markets. Private operators deploy similarly for both retail and wholesale builds, but have a larger presence in Tier 3 markets (Charlotte, Orlando, Minneapolis, Montreal, Seattle, Nas

39、hville, etc.). Tier 3 markets are more complex to scale with enterprise and cloud customers, ramping slower and smaller.3) Age of Facilities & Power Distribution CapabilitiesPublicly traded data center operators have a healthy combination of new capacity from facility expansions and net-new campus b

40、uilds while maintaining older facility vintages given consistent non-recurring CapEx investments for retail/wholesale facility sites. Private operators in retail on average have much older data centers, with lower power capacities supporting older IT hardware & networking equipment deployments, and

41、in some cases have not seen non-recurring CapEx investments for several years. New private wholesale builds are generally in good shape given their recent development standards, using experienced facility design engineering firms.4) Type of ColocationPublicly traded operators are balanced well betwe

42、en retail and wholesale data centers and have robust retail capabilities with cloud and SDN On-Ramps whereas private operators have lower On-Ramp capabilities, forming less capable customer/cloud/SDN tenant ecosystems. Public operators have a material scale and connectivity advantage compared to pri

43、vate operators in this factor.5) Access to Financing & CapitalPublicly traded operators have several capital financing options including: 1) follow-on equity raises/public markets, 2) credit facilities, 3) senior debt notes (investment grade, high yield), 4) variety of joint venture partnership oppo

44、rtunities, and 5) other forms of funding at high public equity valuations. Private companies have combinations of public company sources (debt, credit facilities, etc.), but at lower valuations, lower scale, usually lower than investment grade rated debt options, more complex JV partnership agreemen

45、ts, and private operators do not have access to equity raise capabilities from public markets (especially not at REIT valuations), restricting cash injections to private/pension/sovereign equity or new investor funding sources, which is usually an unfavorable course of action for more private market

46、 investors if the new capital is not going towards new facility developments or expansions. 2020 Credit Suisse Communications Infrastructure Comp SheetBasic InformationCompany / GroupTickerPriceCurrent MarketCap ($mil)Net Debt($mil)EV ($mil)Rating /ConsensusTargetPriceUpside /DownsideEV/Revenue2020E

47、2021EEV/EBITDA2020E2021EP/FFO2020E2021EP/AFFO2020E2021ENet Debt/EBITDA2020E2021ECapex/Revenue2020E2021EDiv. YieldCurrentEquinixEQIX$602$51,396$9,616$61,012Outperform$6345.3%10.0 x9.2x20.6x18.7x32.8x30.1x23.8x21.9x3.3x3.0 x36%35%1.6%CyrusOneCONE$616,9742,7699,743Neutral$7014.4%8.7x7.9x16.6x15.1x16.4x

48、15.9x16.2x15.7x4.7x4.3x73%86%3.1%CoreSite RealtyCOR$1184,4421,3765,818Neutral$101-14.2%9.5x8.9x17.9x16.7x22.7x22.1x23.2x23.0 x4.2x3.9x49%47%4.0%QTS RealtyQTS$573,3301,3824,712Neutral$52-9.1%8.8x7.9x16.6x14.9x21.0 x19.6x21.9x20.4x4.9x4.4x104%95%3.1%Data Center REITs AVG$18,553$5,190$23,7439.2x8.5x17.

49、9x16.4x23.2x21.9x21.3x20.2x4.3x3.9x75%76%3.4%GDS HoldingsGDS$53$7,4051,374$8,779Consensus14.8x10.3x33.5x22.5x5.2x3.5x2.4x2.1x5.7x4.7x102%121%57%54%211%158%0.0%0.7%0.0%Switch, Inc.SWCH164,0186204,638Outperform$1918.3%9.0 x8.0 x18.0 x15.9xNextDCNXT52,5843292,912Consensus24.1x21.4x50.8x41.6xNon-REIT Da

50、ta Centers AVG$4,193$853$5,04712.4x10.6x30.2x22.0 x5.3x4.4x95%86%0.7%American TowerAMT$233$103,400$26,958$130,358Consensus17.2x16.1x27.6x25.7x29.6x27.0 x29.5x26.7x5.7x5.3x14%13%1.6%Crowne CastleCCI14961,97023,30685,276Consensus15.1x14.4x25.0 x23.7x25.0 x23.5x25.0 x23.5x6.8x6.5x36%31%3.0%SBA Comm.SBA

51、C24928,07612,09340,169Consensus20.0 x19.0 x28.5x26.5x29.4x26.6x29.4x26.6x8.6x8.0 x8%10%0.3%Tower REITs AVG$64,482$20,786$85,26817.4x16.5x27.0 x25.3x28.0 x25.7x28.0 x25.6x7.0 x6.6x19%18%1.6%ZayoZAYO358,2326,27214,504Consensus5.6x5.6x11.3x11.2x4.9x4.9x2.6x2.4x7.9x7.9x31%33%11%11%6%5%0.0%3.3%0.0%Cogent

52、 CommunicationsCCOI733,4525664,018Outperform$752.2%6.9x6.5x18.6x17.2xGTT CommunicationsGTT137293,5034,231Consensus2.5x2.5x9.6x9.5xFiber/ Comm. REITs AVG$4,138$3,447$7,5845.0 x4.9x13.2x12.7x5.2x5.1x16%16%1.1%AkamaiAKAM$95$15,326$637$15,963Consensus5.6x5.2x13.3x12.2x0.5x0.5x20%17%0.0%Limelight Network

53、sLLNW5636(3)633Consensus3.2x2.8x36.4x20.9x-0.2x-0.1x15%13%0.0%FastlyFSLY242,276(179)2,097Consensus10.7x8.2xN.M.N.M.N.M.N.M.12%15%0.0%CloudflareNET185,280(635)4,646Consensus16.5x12.3xN.M.N.M.N.M.N.M.16%18%0.0%CDN AVG$7,981$637$15,9634.4x4.0 x24.9x16.5x0.2x0.2x20%21%0.0%CenturyLinkCTL$14$15,078$35,488

54、$50,566Consensus2.3x2.3x5.6x5.6x3.9x3.9x16%16%6.9%ZayoZAYO358,2326,27214,504Consensus5.6x5.6x11.3x11.2x4.9x4.9x31%33%0.0%Uniti GroupUNIT71,2604,9816,241Consensus5.9x6.0 x7.6x8.0 x3.2x3.8x2.6x3.2x6.1x6.4x28%19%5.4%Cogent CommunicationsCCOI733,4525664,018Outperform$752.2%6.9x6.5x18.6x17.2x2.6x2.4x11%1

55、1%3.3%Consolidated Comm.CNSL53652,3352,700Consensus2.0 x2.1x5.2x5.3x4.5x4.6x17%16%14.3%Frontier Comm.FTR16016,93016,990Consensus2.1x2.2x5.1x5.4x5.0 x5.4x15%14%0.0%WindstreamWIN073,1483,155Consensus0.6x0.6x2.9x2.9x2.9x2.9x15%14%0.0%Fiber AVG$4,065$9,960$14,0253.6x3.6x8.0 x8.0 x3.2x3.8x2.6x3.2x4.3x4.3

56、x19%18%4.3%AT&TT$37$270,650$184,212$454,862Consensus2.5x2.5x7.6x7.6x3.1x3.1x11%11%5.3%VerizonVZ60246,203126,675372,878Consensus2.8x2.8x7.8x7.6x2.7x2.6x13%13%4.0%T-MobileTMUS8068,66841,304109,972Consensus2.4x2.3x8.4x8.0 x3.2x3.0 x14%14%0.0%SprintS518,74841,42960,177Consensus1.9x1.9x5.6x5.7x3.9x3.9x36

57、%N.M.0.0%U.S. CellularUSM342,8912,0044,895Consensus1.2x1.2x4.9x4.9x2.0 xN.M.17%18%0.0%Cincinnati BellCBB146812,0082,688Consensus1.8x1.8x6.6x6.5x5.0 xN.M.15%15%0.0%Telecoms AVG$101,307$66,272$167,5792.1x2.1x6.8x6.7x3.3x3.1x18%14%1.5%ComcastCMCSA$43$197,07496,717$293,791Consensus2.7x2.6x8.6x8.4x2.8x2.

58、8x9%10%1.9%Charter CommunicationsCHTR491105,40175,592180,993Consensus4.0 x3.8x10.9x10.0 x4.5x4.2x15%15%0.0%Liberty GlobalLBTA2112,61120,62433,235Consensus2.9x2.9x6.7x7.0 x4.1x4.4x14%17%0.0%DishDISH3719,21612,94232,158Consensus2.5x2.6x13.5x14.0 x5.4x5.6x5%5%0.0%Cable OneCABO17019,7161,16410,881Consen

59、sus9.4x8.4x19.4x17.3x2.1x1.8x21%21%0.5%WideOpenWest IncWOW75712,3272,897Consensus2.5x2.5x6.6x6.4x5.3x5.2x22%22%0.0%Cable AVG$57,432$34,894$92,3264.0 x3.8x10.9x10.5x4.1x4.0 x14%15%0.4%Credit Suisse Defined TMT AVG$32,769$17,755$51,4428.5x6.2x15.4x13.1x22.5x21.1x24.6x22.9x4.3x4.1x31%30%1.6%Source: Com

60、pany data, Factset, Credit Suisse estimates.Investment RisksWe identify a number of investment risks in Data Center REITs (the companies) including the following:Technological Disruption: Currently, the market environment is pushing enterprises and I.T. customers to outsource and decentralize their