Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲

1、附件九：Oraclle应用系系统发展势势头强劲主要竞争对对手业绩不不佳，999年13季度度软件销售售额增长率率（同比上上年）如下下：99年第一一季度99年第二二季度99年第三三季度Oraclle5%28%11%PeoplleSofft-44%-61%-67%SAP-8%-15%-26%竞争对手业业绩不佳的的主要原因因是：向e-buusineess方向向转变太慢慢销售队伍严严重流失在客户关系系管理领域域（CRMM）落后处在产品转转型阶段风风险大分析家们对对它们近期期前景亦不不看好（详细内容容请参阅下下面文章）-Both SAP and PSFTT madde diisapppointting p

2、re-annoounceementts laast wweekindiccatinng thheir resuults for Q3 wwouldd be weakker tthananalyysts expeectedd. FFinall ressultss forr botth coompannies weree relleasee witthinthe ppast two dayss.In SAAP reeportted ffinall Q3 numbbers in lline withh pree-annnouncced rresullts oof(7%) totaal reevenu

3、ue grrowthh andd (266%) ppure liceense growwth. Anaalystt agrreedthe rrevissionss werre siignifficannt annd thhe pootenttial for furtther downnsidee isgreatter tthan the likeelihoood oof anny uppsidee in the nearr-terrm. TheUS-baased busiinesss conntinuues tto sttrugggle, withh modderatte immprovvem

4、ennt innthe AAsia/Paciific regiion. Thee priimaryy surrprisse foor thhe quuarteer caame ffromhigheer-thhan-eexpeccted operratinng exxpensses aas SAAP coontinnues to iinvesstheaviily iin R&D annd maarketting to ssuppoort iits nnewlyy lauuncheed iinterrnetstrattegy. AAveraage rrevennue pper nnew ssale

5、 felll siggnifiicanttly aas a resuultof inncreaased mid-markket ssaless, inncremmentaal saales to tthe iinstaalledd basse,lowerr priiced add-ons, andd morre prrospeects buyiing iin smmalleer chhunkss. TTheoverwwhelmming conssensuus ammong the anallystss forr SAPP is an eenvirronmeentcharaacterrizedd

6、 by a nuumberr of challlengges, inclludinng a touggh maacroeeconoomicsituaationn, coontinnued saleesforrce aattriitionn (esspeciiallyy in the U.S.), aanda commpliccatedd andd latte trransiitionn in an eefforrt too beccome aninterrnet-enabbled backk- annd frront-offiice aappliicatiion pproviider.Furt

7、hhermoore, anallystss exppresssed cconceern wwith the funddamenntal trennd offSAPss deccreassing highh-marrgin liceense reveenue couppled withh theeirincreeasinng loow-maarginn connsultting reveenue. Thhe coonsennsus folllowinngmanaggemennts commmentss wass preedomiinanttly ccharaacterrizedd as caut

8、tiousslyuncerrtainn, wiith nno cllearlly avvailaable cataalystt to geneeratee neaar-teerminterrest in tthe sstockk.PSFTs reeportted QQ3 reesultts weere iin liine wwith the receent ddownwwardllyrevissed gguidaance giveen inn thee Commpanyys OOctobber 111thpre-rreleaase. Liccensee revvenuee forr thee

9、quaarterr wass dowwn 677% yeear ooveryear, witth maanageementt atttribuutingg thee shoortfaall tto thhecontiinuedd sofft deemandd forr PSFFTs coree bacck-offficee appplicaationns,especciallly inn thee U.SS. maarkettplacce. Two noteed cooncerrnsamongg a nnumbeer off anaalystts inncludde isssuess surr

10、rounndingg PSFFTs lackk ofcompeetitiiveneess iin a shifft too a ee-bussinesss drrivennmarkeetplaace aas weell aas PSSFTss inaabiliity tto reetainn tallenteed inndiviidualls.The hhard-to-aansweer quuestiion rremaiins tthe ttiminng foor apotenntiall reccoverry ass PSFFT shhiftss itss prooductt basse t

11、oowardds e-busiinessssoluttionss andd eveentuaally inteegrattes ffrontt-offfice suppplierrVantiive. Anaalystts ccurreent eexpecctatiions are for somee reccoverry beeginnningin eaarly 20000, buut accknowwledgge thhat ttranssitioon riisksremaiin, aand ccautiion iinvesstorss thaat itt is safeer too rem

12、main on tthesidelliness in the nearr-terrm. Overrall, thee anaalystts ssentiimentt towwardssPSFT was simiilar to tthat of SSAP - yoouree behhind the timees annd haavequitee a wway tto caatch up! As a reesultt, neeitheer reepressentss athreaat too ORCCL inn thee forreseeeablee futture.Summaary oof Re

13、esultts:ERP llicennse rrevennue ccompaarisoon: YoYY purre liicensse grrowthh: CYY Q1 CCYQ2 CCYQ3ORCL 5% 28% 11%PSFT (44%) (61%) (677%)SAP (8%) (155%) (226%)SAP OOperaatingg Marrgin: 7.33% vss 19.3% iin Q3398Peopllesofft Opperatting Marggin: 1.55% vss 18.6% iin Q3398Analyyst QQuotees:- Neiil Heermann

14、, Saalomoon Smmith BarnneyWhille, iin ouur viiew, the macrroecoonomiic ennviroonmennt foor thhe ERRP pllayerrsmay hhave stoppped gettting worsse, SSAP hhas ssome workk to do rregarrdingg itss mySSAP aand IInterrnet inittiatiives. Thhereffore, we are incllinedd to beliieve thatt thiis maay noot bee t

15、hee lasst diisapppointting earnningss annnounccemennt beeforee thee commpanyy emeergess from the foreest.- Devvika Maliik, JJ.P. MorgganWe tthinkk thaat SAAPs weakk thiird-qquartter rresullts aare ddue tto twwo faactorrs:(1.) baseed onn ourr onggoingg disscusssionss witth CIIOs(headd of IT), we beli

16、ieve thatt commpaniies aare ccomplletinng thheir Y2Kremeddiatiion wwork and new projjectss willl noot sttart untiilfourtth-quuarteer 19999 aat thhe eaarlieest; and (2.) we feell thaat thhere is aalsoa prooductt traansittion issuue. SAP launnchedd mySSAP.ccom iinmid-SSepteemberr andd ordders for SAPs

17、 R33 prooductts wiill pprobaably sufffer aascustoomerss revview the neweer innternnet eenablledsoluttion.- Steeve PPalfrrey, BernnsteiinWe ccontiinue to ssee eevideence in tthe mmarkeet thhe PSSFT iis haavingg to fighhtconceerns in tthe mmarkeet abbout its longg terrm sttrenggth. Webelieeve tthat to

18、 rregaiin itts moomenttum iin thhe maarkettplacce, PPSFT needds toofocuss it enerrgy oon a few vertticall marrketss wheere iit caandiffeerenttiatee itsself fromm ORCCL annd SAAP. We ccontiinue to rrate PeoppleSooftmarkeet peerforrm. UUntill PeoopleSSoft showws siigns thatt itcan rregaiin thhe maarkett shaare iit haas loost tthis yearr andd beaat esstimaates in2000, it is uunlikkely to ooutpeerforrm. Howeever, givven tthelow eexpecctatiions for liceense growwth iin thhe neear tterm, siggnifiicanttdownsside to tthe