Q1石油市场季报：美国利用其能源例外主义

1、Oil Market Quarterly 1Q19US leverages its energy exceptionalismGlobal Commodities Research15 March 2019As risky assets focused on macro concerns, oil markets have largely overlooked supply-side tightness in 1Q19 that has helped global oil markets to rebalance since the end of 2018. With a potential

2、for a US-China trade talk resolution emerging, oil prices should finally break out of the narrow trading range and should be supported in the very near-term due to policy- driven supply-side tightness. The recovery is likely to fade towards the end of 2019 unless OPEC+ continues to over-comply and d

3、emand growth holds up.In 2019, we revised down total oil products demand growth marginally by 58kbd to 1.03mbd whereas total supply growth has been revised down by 0.74mbd to 0.3mbd y/y due to OPEC+ cuts and Canadian curtailments as assumed in our central balances. This is supportive for oil prices

4、in 1H19. In 2H19 we are somewhat skeptical of the direction oil prices could take at this stage given the strong price elasticity of supply and sustainability of OPEC+ cuts if oil prices or non-OPEC production were to rise unabated. At this stage, in order to take a direction/view, we would rather g

5、ive benefit of the doubt to OPEC+ managing supply in order to avoid a surplus. Hence, we think OPEC+ cuts will need to be extended not just to the end of 2019 but also into 2020 if they want to avoid another oil price crash.Given the support is very strongly pivoted on continued OPEC+ cuts (and over

6、-compliance), US foreign policy could very much influence those cuts as neither US nor OPEC wants oil prices to rally too high at this stage of global economic expansion. Talks of US SPR release and NOPEC bill could gain traction if oil prices were to rise significantly from current levels. Hence, o

7、ur risk bias is negative relative to our base case scenario especially in 2H19 when US supply growth returns.Global Commodities Research Abhishek G Deshpande AC(1-212) 834-3102 HYPERLINK mailto:abhishek.g.deshpande abhishek.g.deshpande JPMorgan Chase Bank NAThomas Anthonj(44-20) 7742-7850 HYPERLINK

8、mailto:thomas.e.anthonj thomas.e.anthonjJ.P. Morgan Securities plcArindam Sandilya(65) 6882-7759 HYPERLINK mailto:arindam.x.sandilya arindam.x.sandilyaJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore BranchPrateek Kedia(91-22) 6157-3317 HYPERLINK mailto:prateek.kedia prateek.kediaJ.P. Morgan India Private Limit

9、edJ.P. Morgan Oil Price Forecast (Brent)$/bbl1009080706050401Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20High Case ScenarioLow Case ScenarioOil technical: The rally off the December 2018 lows remains intact for the Central Scenario Forward Curvetime being, but coming closer to the target zone for the firs

10、t leg up (A-wave) of the broader countertrend rally, usually a 50% retracement of the preceding sell-off, we expect the up-momentum to fade in preparation of the B-wave sell-off, which could potentially retrace 76.4% of the ongoing wave A up.Oil derivatives: Oil volatility has fully normalized from

11、the multi-sigma spike in 4Q18 when unexpected waivers on Iranian sanctions roiled markets. Vols now screen fair vs. medium-term fundamental drivers. Oil volatility should remain contained this year due to continued OPEC+ management of prices around $70/bbl on Brent. The lack of overvaluation in impl

12、ied volatility prevents an aggressive short vol stance; however, cautious structuring via -M6/+M12 calendar spreads offers better risk- reward. Bullish oil views are well-expressed via Jun19 call spreads that have cheapened sharply in vol, and line up timeline-wise with the Iranian sanctions waiver

13、deadline, an expected ramp up in Russian production compliance ahead of the April OPEC+ meeting, and the end of the refinery maintenance season.Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchJ.P. Morgan Oil Price Forecast (WTI)$/bbl100908070605040301Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20Central ScenarioFor

14、ward Curve High Case Scenario Low Case ScenarioSource: J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchSee page 36 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may ha

15、ve a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Oil Market Outlook OPEC+ cuts required for rest of 2019 & 2020The end of 2018 called into question the health of

16、global economic growth as risky assets sold off on the back of global slowdown risks. Since we last published our 4Q18 oil quarterly, J.P. Morgan has revised global GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 down by 10bps to 3.2% y/y and 20 bps to 2.8% y/y, respectively, but kept the 2020 GDP growth rate unchange

17、d at 2.8% y/y.While the macro concerns linger, there are some signs of a potential stabilization in economic growth slowdown as noted in the FRI and the EASI indices ofJ.P. Morgan. Also, the second derivative for Manufacturing PMI has slowed (less negative) and Industrial Production (IP) is expected

18、 to improve as early as 2Q19 as noted by J.P. Morgan economists.We revise oil products demand growth marginally lower in 2019 to 1.03 mbd (-58kbd vs previous estimates). The heavy lifting done by the US in driving oil products demand last year should wane, taking global oil demand growth lower with

19、it. The demand growth is expected to soften further to 0.9 mbd in 2020. Any positive outcome from US-China trade talks could suggest some revisions to the upside.Supply will dominate the year with OPEC+ cuts at loggerheads with US foreign policy right before the next OPEC+ meeting in Vienna on 17-18

20、 April.2019 could be once again a year of two halves for oil markets with 1H19 supported by supply-side tightness that could easily fade by 2H19 as non-OPEC supply growth continues to outweigh OPEC+s efforts.Any short-term gain is likely to lose steam in 2020 as US supply growth and foreign policies

21、 will challenge the sustainability of higher oil prices.Trade recommendations: Stay tactically long NYMEX WTI June 2019 and short NYMEX WTI December 2019 spread trade. Stay long NYMEX WTI June 2019 and short ICE Brent June 2019 trade.Oil outlook summary: OPEC+ cuts required for rest of 2019 & 2020Oi

22、l prices experienced a precipitous sell-off in 4Q18, declining by 42% between Oct 03 and Dec 24. Whilst the concern around a global macro slowdown was the key trigger, weakness in the physical marketmainly policy driven and taking OECD total oil inventories above the five-year average at the end of

23、last yearfurther exacerbated the move lower in price. US total liquids supply rose by 2.2mbd in 2018, a historic high and greater than its previous high of 1.7mbd observed in 2014. Thus far, the first half of 2019 appears to be on track for a re- balancing of the supply and demand after OPEC+ announ

24、ced additional supply cuts in Dec18. This allows us to keep a supportive argument for oil prices.Oil prices (Brent) are up 25% YTD and oil is one of the strongest performing asset classes so far in 2019. Oil markets are strongly being influenced by the supply side as we make limited changes to our 2

25、019 demand growth forecasts. In 2019, we expect total oil products demand growth of 1.03mbd whereas total supply growth has been revised down by 0.74mbd to 0.3mbd y/y due to OPEC+ cuts and Canadian curtailments as assumed in our central balances. As OPEC+ cuts begin to bite and non-OPEC supply tight

26、ens in 1H19, due to Canadian curtailments, a temporary US production growth slowdown, and maintenance in some of the key global oil fields (Kashagan particularly), we expect 2Q19 to have a theoretical tightness of over 1.2mbd in global balances. This is in stark contrast to our 4Q18 preliminary data

27、 showing weakness of 1.5mbd. Additionally, as refiners return from seasonal maintenance globally, we should see the physical crude market tighten.In 2H19 we are somewhat skeptical of the direction oil prices could take at this stage given the strong price elasticity of supply and sustainability of O

28、PEC+ cuts if oil prices or non-OPEC production were to rise unabated. At this stage, in order to take a direction/view, we would rather give benefit of the doubt to OPEC+ managing supply in order to avoid a surplus after being caught off-guard by US policies involving Iran. Hence, we think OPEC+ cut

29、s will need to be extended not just to the end of 2019 but also into 2020 if they want to avoid another oil price crash.Exhibit 1: Oil rebounds on supply-side corrections: from free fall of 4Q18 to 25% jump in 1Q19YTD 2019 returns by asset class (%)2525161715121111111010101414910879465111111002223-1

30、-2WTIBrentRussell 2000 MSCI China ($) MSCI Turkey ($)Nasdaq MSCI Brazil ($)S&P500MSCI Russia ($) Commodities MSCI World MSCI Korea ($) MSCI EM (in $) MSCI EMUCopper Australia equities (ASX 200)Topix MSCI S. Africa ($) MSCI Mexico ($) US HY creditFTSEEuro HY creditGold EM FX (ELMI)Spanish BonosUS lin

31、kers Euro HG credit German BundsJGBsGBI Global US Treasuries USD 3M cash Italian BTPs Euro linkers USD trade-wtd MSCI India ($)current levels in the very near-term on the back of unchanged demand growth but continued supply-side corrections and risks. We have left 2020 oil prices unchanged.Exhibit 2

32、: J.P. Morgan Oil Price Forecast (Brent)$/bbl1009080706050401Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q20Central ScenarioForward CurveHigh Case ScenarioLow Case ScenarioSource: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Note: Fwd. prices as of Mar 11-5051015202530Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchInternational Marit

33、ime Organizations (IMO2020) low sulphur cap which comes into effect on 1 Jan 2020 would further reduce demand for OPEC crude. Thus, it would be ill-timed to get their sour grades into the market when there is low demand for that specific grade of crude. After an initial slowdown in 1H19, US supply g

34、rowth should return once pipeline constraints are resolved. Based on our current price outlook and IMO 2020, there will be an increasing incentive for the US to complete new wells and bring the overhang of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) back into the market.We have marked-to-market our 1Q19 oil

35、 price forecasts leaving the rest of 2019 and 2020 unchanged. While the modal view based on a multivariate regression analysis of oil suggests oil price should trade in the $60-65/bbl range for Brent, we believe that does not fairly reflect the growing geopolitical risks (Iran and Venezuela sanction

36、s) in the oil markets that directly impact the supply part of the balance and the desire for OPEC+ (mainly Saudi Arabia) to maintain oil prices (Brent) closer to $70/bbl. Also, when we take a univariate regression model based on the supply and demand balance, it clearly suggests oil prices should be

37、 closer to $70/bbl. As we have mentioned several times in our weekly reports, once we have a decision on US-China trade talks, oil markets are likely to re-focus their attention on the oil supply and demand balance (see HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2880361-0 Oil Market HYPERLINK /research/content

38、/GPS-2880361-0 Weekly, Jan 11). Hence, we maintain our bullish view fromExhibit 3: J.P. Morgan Oil Price Forecast (WTI)$/bbl100908070605040301Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q20Central ScenarioForward CurveHigh Case ScenarioLow Case ScenarioSource: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Note: Fwd. prices as o

39、f Mar 11Exhibit 4: Brent fair price estimation$/bblOil Price EstimationBased onPredictedBrent Dec18DeviationUnivariate ModelGDP77.057.7-19.3PMI55.357.72.4S&P59.757.7-2.0S&P Energy41.857.715.9S-D59.957.7-2.2OECD Inventories70.957.7-13.2EIA Outages74.157.7-16.4GAI74.457.7-16.7Multivariate ModelS&P, OE

40、CD Inv & DXY61.257.7-3.5S-D, S&P & DXY56.857.70.9S&P, OECD Inv & DXY + GAI61.057.7-3.3S-D, S&P, DXY +GAI58.757.7-1.0Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, GAI = JPM Global Anxiety Index, S-D: Supply- Demand balanceRisks to our central scenario: Given the support is very strongly pivoted on contin

41、ued OPEC+ cuts (and over- compliance), US foreign policy could very much influence those cuts as neither US nor OPEC wants oil prices to rally too high at this stage of global economic expansion. US exceptionalism in energy has given the largest oil producer leverage in foreign policy like never bef

42、ore and it seems determined in using it. OPEC+ (mainly Saudi Arabia) could manage US policy and expectations via compliance rather than outright breaking the OPEC+ accord that it has worked so hard to build over the last two years; however, messaging is likely to be very important as it has the pote

43、ntial to push prices down on sentiment quickly. Talks of US SPR release and NOPEC bill could gain traction if oil prices were to rise significantly from current levels as that would put pressure on US administration to act especially ahead of the US Presidential elections in 2020. On the Brent front

44、, a no-deal Brexit could increase uncertainty around the free trade agreement with South Korea and thereby put pressure on Forties and Dated Brent in the very near-term. Hence, our risk bias is negative relative to our base case scenario especially in 2H19 when OPEC+ cuts come to an end as per the D

45、ec18 agreement and when US supply growth should return on the back of higher oil prices and reduced takeaway constraints. We are cognizant that positive US- China trade talks should be supportive demand but that is limited relative to the sustainable support seen during synchronized growth at the en

46、d of 2017 and early 2018 in oil demand. If OPEC+ was to not extend supply cuts or if US supply were to increase well above our expected growth for 2019, it could very quickly offset the limited impact to oil demand from successful US-China trade talks, in our view. Investors have been skeptical of i

47、ncreasing their positioning in oil despite the markets currently in re- balancing mode due to supply-side corrections. Their appetite for oil would further reduce should signs oftightness in physical markets disappear towards the end of 2019 or early 2020.Risk of NOPEC Bill: On 07 Feb 2018 the US Ho

48、use of Representatives Judiciary Committee approved a bill to amend the Sherman Antitrust Act that would make oil producing and exporting cartels illegal. The bill, HYPERLINK /bill/116th-congress/house-bill/948?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22H.R.%2B948%22%5D%7D&r=1&s=2 H.R.948, was introduced on 04 Feb b

49、y Rep. Steve Chabot. The bill has gained traction in the last six months just when OPEC and Russia continue to make joint efforts to scale back production in order to balance the markets but in doing so they also help support oil prices. US politicians have tried several times in the past to pass th

50、e NOPEC bill but the White House has opposed it so far. In the latest meetings in Houston around the IHS CERAWeek conference, there were further discussions between energy stakeholders around the risk of NOPEC bill progressing further to become law eventually. The Energy Secretary was quoted by Bloo

51、mberg saying “OPEC was appropriately concerned” about the potential legislation. We think the progression of NOPEC would be partially fueled by oil prices and their trajectory. But, equally, even if it were to become a law, the fact that US has become the largest producer of crude and condensates in

52、 the world should mean that using it appropriately would be very important and perhaps limited. US producers and their oil-based income lubricate various state economies (directly and indirectly) within US. So, a low oil price environment is not necessarily the obvious option. It nevertheless is lev

53、erage along with its booming oil production that would allow them to drive oil-based policies in the medium term. For US and its oil industry, the message is clear: “strike while the iron is hot”.PMI and oil price: is that a story to tell?In the past PMI would have been a good variable for considera

54、tion in oil prices as supply-side changes were managed via OPEC. We still did a quick regression analysis along with other variables around global PMI to assess the relationship. Our models suggest that the fair price of Brent at present level of the global PMI (50.6) is$50.5/bbl. We estimate that p

55、rice tends to be in a -1 to+1.5 standard deviation range around the trend. Prices rose above trend as risks elevated before the Iranian sanctions and then returned to trend in Dec18 after a massive sell-off over economic woes. Presently, prices remain close to the upper end of the band, while we exp

56、ect a continued rise in supply to prompt mean reversion back towards the trend.Our various models suggest $60-65/bbl to be a natural floor for Brent prices.Exhibit 5: Brent price based on Global PMI$/bbl90807060504030Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 PredictedPredicted -

57、 1SDActualPredicted + 1.5 SDSource: J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchGlobal macroThe end of 2018 called into question the health of global economic growth as risky assets sold off on the back of global slowdown risks. Since we last published our 4Q18 oil quarterly, J.P. Morgan has revised global GDP

58、growth for 2018 and 2019 down by 10bps to 3.2% y/y and 20 bps to 2.8% y/y, respectively (see Exhibit 8) but kept the 2020 GDP growth rate unchanged at 2.8% y/y. Global growth in 2020 is expected to remain stable due to relatively firm growth in US and Emerging Market (EM) economies (especially India

59、) despite a drag from the Euro Area economies.The 2019 GDP growth forecast for Developed Markets (DM) was revised down by 40bps to 1.7% y/y. The sharpest regional revision came from a 70bps decline in the 2019 Euro Area GDP growth estimate due to a slowdown in Germany, France and Italy. Japan too wa

60、s revised down by 70bps in 2019.At the same time, the 2019 GDP growth forecast for EM was revised down by 10bps to 4.4% y/y relative to our last quarterly on the back of disruption caused by the US-China trade conflict. Global manufacturing activity as indicated by the PMI reflects weakness in globa