机械行业中期策略：从三个角度优选细分行业龙头

1、1. 32. 73. 93.1.93.1.1. 103.1.2. 123.2.143.2.1.122,500. 153.2.2. 173.3.183.4.21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 3.4.1.ROA23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 MSCI26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 MSCI264.2.274.2.1. 274.3.284.3.1. 284.3.2.CT294.4.304.4.1. 304.4.2. 304.4.3.CT315.A315.1.13% .325.2.A335.3.335.4.A345.4.1.&. 345.

2、4.2.&. 355.4.3.&. 375.4.4.&. 383001. 201912019 Wind 2019/083-4 08Q4-12Q44/13Q1-15Q33/15Q4-31-2 /19Q1/19Q117%/43%/91%18Q418Q415%/-202%/53% 219Q1/ 56%210%42%140%28%70%14%0%0%-70%13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1

3、-14%-140%-28%-210%Wind1422622%18Q4 19Q1 6.74% 325%22.81%20%15%10%6.74%5%0%-5%13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1Wind18Q4/10.86%19Q12430.41% Q118Q4418Q4 12%3.5%10%3.0%2.5%8%2.0%6%1.5%4%1.0%2%0.5%0%0.0%13Q1 13Q2 1

4、3Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1Wind Q434019Q1 518Q419Q1 Wind 19Q118Q4 0.850.6819Q1 619Q10.90.80.70.60.50.413Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18

5、Q3 18Q4 19Q1Wind“”201818H2 78%29%84pct 19pct 72018 Wind Q42819Q1-5%18060%46%14440%40%32%27%25%32%23%18%17%20%1088%14%2%-3%-5%-5% 0%72 -7%-12% -12%-9% -12%-14%-22%-19%-20%36-31% -32%-40%0-60%13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2

6、18Q3 18Q4 19Q1Wind 19Q10,30%38%919Q1 12259543215121781( ,-100%)(-100%,-50%)(-50%,-30%)(-30%,0%)(0%,30%)(30%,50%)(50%,80%)(80%,100%)(100%, )Wind 19Q1-50%20% 0,30% 100%19% 1019Q1 92643533302319185( ,-100%)(-100%,-50%)(-50%,-30%)(-30%,0%)(0%,30%)(30%,50%)(50%,80%)(80%,100%)(100%, )Wind 2. 20184-5%2019

7、2-3%10%1112WindWind PMIPMIPMI2019 PMI 2016 PMI PMI 13PMIPMI14PMIWindWind 15Wind 1.a)b)c)d)2.a)b)c)A3. 3.1.202018531 5302019 2020 3.1.1.2020 2017PERCPERC 37GWTrendfor2021 ce2019PERC116GW 163GW 3-55GW90.7GW56GW PERCPERC 20GW4.2GW2019 3.211-121PERC 18GW 2019(GW)(GW)617114.59.85.33.59.562422.530.55524.5

8、2.53.59.25.72.84.21.4442.941.11.51.55151034.790.75620181032019 2019 163.253.23.153.13.0532.952.92.85 Wind 2020 50.8GW201881.2GW2016 2017 77%25.8GW20191100GW2021192GW2019PERC PERC2020 17PERC1820018518016316014214012011610078806043403537272122200201720182019E2020E2021E2022E PERCGWPERCGW250200 19216815

9、01021008166515026253025151021020152016201720182019E2020E2021ETrendforceTrendforce319“25GW ”“”9025GW50GW32220181231“531201930%”201915GW(11GW)15GW10GW(9.2GWPERC)22016201720182019E2020E7.515283645503.572550551251130133.550123.1.2.PERC PN,13PERCTOPCon2PERCHIT SHJ19PERCPERCAIOx+SiNx P-NPERC1989( UNSW)Mar

10、tinGreenPFZ22.8% 20PERC SolarbeNPERC2017-2018PERC35GW78GW2019116GW 2020180GW2018PERC43GW2019-202237GW22GW ERT MWTIBCMWT2018HJT N-PERL/P2.7GW 2.4GW 1.5GWHJTN-PERLPERTN2022IBC/MWT4GW N-PERL/PERTHJT17GW14GW 21PERC22N20018518016316014214012011610078806043353740272122200201720182019E2020E2021E2022EPERCGW

11、 PERCGW454035302520151050201720182019E2020E2021E2022E2023EHJTN-PERL/PERTIBC/MWTTrendforceTrendforceTOPConPERC PERLPERTTOPCon HJTIBC HJT HITPECVD HIT HITPERCLD-320ALPCVDYACTOPCon 3.2.112630641683SEMI 2018-2020 27,7002018-202175%1859%20%14%2332480200%70150%60100%504050%300%20-50%100-100140 131 80%1206

12、0%10082.240%8064.520%6043.84936.533.70%4024.920-20%0-40%20112012201320142015201620172018SEMI Wind .12122,2,5003.2.1500 21122018-202110,0262,500 75%3127,7441,900 165nm-55nm106 10642016 2017 28 15 101152016 10 189718312 14nm10nm 7nm 675 67572016 10 2018 412 -8.5-NORNand Flash240 1608302016 19205-1228/

13、14/10/7 nm1213013011.5201642020- 16nmNORNand Flash-702018 2020- -2000 20001020172018IC -6 19nm-2962020192021-100 67010201720187-200 1340-201920218 8 1228nm-20nm9 -14nmCMO S1290 65nm/55nm12317.2 387 259342016 2018316918 2210251684202011127017032017201912 90 65nm170 704055nm482016 2018913DRAM370370612

14、19nmDRAM 14 20nm DRAM3D-NAND72 48212.52017.620192017315 Flash55369-201861216nm16 300mm30 20122016.72018 173D NAND704691020183201918nm/13nm8.511890.536222+2 2017 2019FD-SOI6.519AOS()2.7 1825201632018 20DRAM8000 4601020162018 21SK 10nmDRAM86 576202017 10 2019170% 2/325%PVD80%20%20%42018E2019E2020E2021

15、E3,695.453,085.052,176.251,070.002,264.982,232.922,176.251,070.0061%72%100%100%70%2,586.822,159.541,523.38749.00DIFFUSION 5%129.34107.9876.1737.45CMP 5%129.34107.9876.1737.45IMPLANT 5%129.34107.9876.1737.45METROLOGY10%258.68215.95152.3474.90CVD 10%258.68215.95152.3474.90PVD 15%388.02323.93228.51112.

16、35ETCH 20%517.36431.91304.68149.80LITHOGRAPHY30%776.04647.86457.01224.702,586.822,159.541,523.38749.001,585.491,563.041,523.38749.001,585.491,563.041,523.38749.003.2.2.914nm614nm 5914nm 12HM PVD 34LPCVD5AI PVD 6ALD7893.3.1.12012EV Sales2010 102018 200201.8201758%202260050052019-2022CAGR25.5% 5.39100

17、2017201480%20172018101 2020 20010%86%2020180 2019-2020CAGR34%530%2526200300%180160250%140200%120100150%8060100%4050%2000%201420152016201720182019E 2020EEV sales10 2020 300150GWHCAT LLGSDISKI123 62020 SKILG 10-20SDILG4802025 30-40LGSDI1236070-8030SDILG 5-103550LGZoe5-10SKI 2020202020 LG19 7GWh2016201

18、72018201920201016263860CATL7.617324050catl 16361214141414581216203.551015202.56.51013152335.55.50.92.56.510.514.512134.55111316203.55615232141414143.5712161833326211416223231553487083NorthvoltGWh 3.5-4GWhGWh8GWh201820202237LG34901135SK3.920CATL 050Northvolt02470.925637+201830%40%273.4.201461.154.2 2

19、01422.30%18.90% 2829,63%10%2017 092020 2025 201763.53%30%11.61%23.66%30%50%10.79%30%10%30%10%30%10%30%40%10%15%30%10%20%50%5.57%30%5.43%30%40%4.34%20%30%2.90%20%35%5% 20%5% 10%5% 10%30%5%20%30%5% 10%2.08%20%30%5% 10%5% 20%30%5% 15%30%5% 10%5% 30%1.72%20%40%5%30%5%10%30%5%30%5%84-8621004%200 200-400

20、3031240-455%90%10 3.4.1.ROA ROA 84%55%321520171320187%-8% 33ROA2014-2016ROE8%20181100ROA9%-10%ROE 342011-2018 2017 20184.51201620106102018 201815% 25% 3536MSCIMSCI MSCI MSCI40187500 3(MSCI)AMSCI A5%20% A4000-6000 MSCI MSCI 1217000 23CT CTCT CT CT 4200-400SGS 20062332104.2.1.38%18%14% 2006-2016 48%35

21、%40%1420165%1980198519901995200020052010201526.728.931.333.134.536.338.340.422.424.727.129.130.833.035.437.914.516.117.919.520.621.823.525.627.129.832.334.837.541.144.848.227.530.733.937.742.048.354.360.024.425.927.328.329.531.233.035.023.525.126.527.829.130.832.734.825.528.431.634.638.141.344.547.6

22、64.367.670.573.075.376.978.479.863.967.069.972.073.873.873.974.751.554.357.260.263.065.467.468.84.3.1.20SGSBV ITS200810%29%SGS%200923% 4%23 2%BVITS 3780SGS382000BV BloombergBloomberg4.3.2.CT a2006 22.8201613917.9%bX X200745420164480929% 200159 3196 3718%50119%201566%CTX 332 CTDR“”CBCTCT CT CT3010100

23、 3002016 200092%CT5%2013600030%CTCT200025%-30%200011337%b4.4.1.30%a2504.4.2.2%SGS200-400 2014-2017 SGS 4.4.3.CTCT“”2000 XCT CTCT201620172018CT1.652.603.7150%CAD/CAM10%CT CBCT 3A5.1813% AA5.1.13%392019628141 1813%766543210 11222222Wind 2A 3 A4018AA5.2.10%1.339%1.136%20189.8 201821.38%31.4 4.7 41%10%4

24、0413531.4302521.320159.8104.751.11.3045%41%39%40%36%35%30%25%20%15%10%10%10%8%5%0%Wind Wind 5.3.AA1 62535x24.26/31x40 x335xAAA5.4.&5.4.1.201833.2486%25.2150%2.34 LEDMEMS MOCVD201816.3969% 0.91204%5.66MOCVD8.32 424335 33.24302522.232016.2216.39159.72106.1050201620172018 32.3421.260.930.9110.300201620

25、172018(1)(2)-2.39(3) 2016-2018 42.52%38.59%35.50%2018 39.73%36.59%38.38% 50% 4.0433%25%20188.73 44454442.52424038.5938.3839.73383636.593435.503230201620172018% %1060%8.7387.58 50%7.3650%47%40%6343%30%42.60%4425%3.023.3020%210%00%201620172018107911021170201858%30% 3818446584647140070%1170120010791102

26、60%100050%80040%60031%29%29%30%38140020%20010%00%2016201720189008448007006586005004003002001000&5.4.2.“”,2018 38.6556.9425%4.85 29% 201830.51173%3.08360%14.7814.3948496056.9465040302010032.771.83201645.5120111.19730.5120185 4.8543.763.083210.510.670 2016-0.1120172018(1)2016-201833.88%36.58%37.84%201

27、819.21%21.64%28.79% 21%3%0.981.242.054%0.391.061.17 505140 37.843536.5830 33.8825 28.7921.642019.21151050201620172018% %425%21%20%2.0515%21.24 9%1.1710%0.981.065%0.3944%3%3%00%201620172018 10% 53661078872% 53%6980173 6891675253610536173698012%9%9%167900800700600500400300200100080%78870%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720188006897006005004003002001000&5.4.3.OLEDAOITouch Panel201813.9055%2.8973% AOI 5.50 LCD16.39 OLED 2.433.885.35201816%69% 54551816.391613.9014129.72108.9586.1065.24420201620172018 43 2.892.4332.121.81.