美国非住宅建筑展望：这是私人非住宅的转折点

1、GlobalResearch19 March 2019EquitiesUS Non-Residential Construction OutlookEquitiesIndustrialAmericasIs this the turning point for Private Non-Res?IndustrialAmericasUpdated 2019 and initial 2020 US non-res forecasts: 2019 +0.8%, 2020 -0.1% Aftergrowing4.7%YoYin2018(+0.8%onarealbasis),weexpectnon-ress

2、pending to slow to +0.8% in 2019 and decline 0.1% in 2020, as continued Public spending growth (+2-3% in 2019; +1-2% in 2020) partially offsets Private declines (flat to -1% in2019;-1-2%in2020).Ourforecastsaresupportedbyourbottom-upanalysisofthe majorPrivatecategories,UBSEvidenceLabNon-ResMacroforec

3、astingprivatespending (ex-Power)todeclinein1H19,Dodgenon-resbuildingsq.ft.constructionstarts,which declined4.7%in2018(leadsspendingby12-18months),tighteninglendingstandards pertheFedsQuarterlyLendingSurvey,andconversationswithindustrycontacts.We expect Private non-residential construction spending t

4、o declineWeexpectdeclinestobedrivenbyCommercial,Office,andPower(midstreamcapex declines),partiallyoffsetbyManufacturinggrowthasLNGprojectsrampup.Basedon our bottom-up analysis, we believe the weakest category in 2019 will beCommercial, duetoanincreasingrateofretailstoreclosures,risingretailvacancyra

5、tes,anddeclines in2018store&warehousestarts.WeexpectCommercialdeclinestocontinuein2020 andOfficetostartdecliningin2H19ascompletionsdropoff.Consensus(perAmerican InstituteofArchitects)forecastsgrowththrough2020inCommercialandOffice.but we continue to believe that Public spending is still in a growth

6、cycleWe expect Public growth to continue through 2020, supported by multi-year capital budget plans already enacted by many states, an additional 272 state & local transportation ballot measures passed in the Nov. 2018 election, 185 bills introduced by 37 states in the first two months of 2019 relat

7、ed to increasing transportation investment,andthepotentialforthenewCongresstopassafederalinfrastructurebill.Most favored w/ non-res exposure: URI, CNH, ACM, CRH; Least: CAT, Komatsu USnon-resisakeyendmarketforE&C,machinery,steel,HVAC,andotherindustrial products/services.OurtoppickswithUSnon-resexpos

8、ureareCNH(self-help),URI(shift torental),ACM(self-help,publicexposure)andCRH.WehaveaSellratingonCATand expect its NA construction sales to decline 7% in 2020 after setting a record high in 2019 (shift to rental, midstream capexdeclines).StevenFisher,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:steven.fisher +1-212-7138634A

9、jit Agrawal, PhD HYPERLINK mailto:ajit.agrawal +1-212-7132053Erika AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:erika.jackson +1-212-7131426Gregor Kuglitsch HYPERLINK mailto:gregor.kuglitsch +44-20-75673553DamianKaras,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:damian.karas +1-212-7132267AndreasBokkenheuser HYPERLINK mailto:andreas.

10、bokkenheuser +1-212-7139516NicholasAmicucci AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:nicholas.amicucci +1-212-8825036Cleve Rueckert HYPERLINK mailto:cleve.rueckert +1-212-7134913RoryMcKenzie HYPERLINK mailto:rory.mckenzie +44-20-75681977MarkusMittermaier HYPERLINK mailto:markus.mittermaier +41-44 2397931Gu

11、illermo PeigneuxLojo HYPERLINK mailto:guillermo.peigneux-lojo +44-20-75689016HikaruMizuno HYPERLINK mailto:hikaru.mizuno +81-3-52086207 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 5

12、6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their in

13、vestment decision.US Non-Residential ConstructionUBS Research THESIS MAP MOSTFAVOREDLEAST FAVOREDUnited Rentals (URI), CNH Industrial(CNHI) Jacobs Engineering (JEC), AECOM (ACM) CRH (CRH), SPX Corp(SPXC)Kennametal (KMT), Caterpillar (CAT)PIVOTALQUESTIONSQ: Has private non-residential construction sp

14、endingpeaked?Yes.WebelievePrivateconstructionwillrolloverin2019,withaslightlymorepronounceddeclinein 2020,drivenprimarilybyaCommercial,Office,andPowerslowdown,partiallyoffsetbyaccelerating Manufacturing growth.Q: How much will public infrastructure projects impact overall spending?We think Public sp

15、ending will be the primary driver of overall spending growth over the next two years. As funds from the FAST Act and voter-approved state initiatives enter the market, we expect continued growth in infrastructure categories, particularly Highway & Street, Water, and Transportation, which represent t

16、he majority of Public non-residential spending.WHATSPRICEDIN?TheconsensusforecastaggregatedbytheAmericanInstituteofArchitecturesisforconstruction growthtocontinuethrough2020forallcategoriesexceptHotelin2020andReligious.UBSVIEWWe expect Public spending growth to modestly offset declining Private cons

17、truction. We think Publicspendingisinthebeginningofagrowthcycle,andbroadcongressionalandstatelevelsupport forinfrastructureprojectscouldprovideamulti-yeartailwind.WeexpectPrivatenon-resspendingto be flat to down 1% in 2019 and down 1-2% in 2020, and Public spending to grow 2-3% in 2019 and 1-2% in 2

18、020.EVIDENCETotal real non-residential construction spending is still 13% below the prior peak. However, realprivateconstructionspendingdeclined0.4%YoYin2018and1.3%YoYin2017,aftergrowing forfiveyearsprior,consistentwiththelengthofhistoricalupcycles.Realpublicconstructionhasnot grown significantly ov

19、er the last five years, and now has support from the passage of state transportationandinfrastructurebillsandFASTActSpending.Dodgenon-residentialbuildingstarts declined4.7%YoYonasquarefootbasis,whichtypicallyleadsUSCensusputinplacedataby12-18 months.UBSEvidenceLabMacroforecastsPrivatespendingtodecli

20、neonaYoYbasisin1H19.ContentsTOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 ExecutiveSummary4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 2018Recap10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 UBS 2019 and2020Forecasts12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Top-DownEvidence14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 UBS EvidenceLabMacro14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 UBS US Non-R

21、esConstructionDashboard15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Expert Events &ChannelChecks17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 ConstructionHeadlines18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Company Commentary21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Real SpendingCycleAnalysis22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Private Spending:HeadingSouth?25 HYPERLINK l _TOC

22、_250007 Power28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Commercial30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Office34 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Manufacturing36 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Health Care39 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Communication40 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Appendix: Detailed ConstructionSpendingData42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Ap

23、pendix: Construction Definitions fromUSCensus45StevenFisher,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:steven.fisher +1-212-7138634Ajit Agrawal, PhD HYPERLINK mailto:ajit.agrawal +1-212-7132053Erika AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:erika.jackson +1-212-7131426Gregor Kuglitsch HYPERLINK mailto:gregor.kuglitsch +44-20-756

24、73553DamianKaras,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:damian.karas +1-212-7132267AndreasBokkenheuser HYPERLINK mailto:andreas.bokkenheuser +1-212-7139516NicholasAmicucci AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:nicholas.amicucci +1-212-8825036Cleve Rueckert HYPERLINK mailto:cleve.rueckert +1-212-7134913RoryMcKenzie HYPERL

25、INK mailto:rory.mckenzie +44-20-75681977MarkusMittermaier HYPERLINK mailto:markus.mittermaier +41-44 2397931Guillermo PeigneuxLojo HYPERLINK mailto:guillermo.peigneux-lojo +44-20-75689016HikaruMizuno HYPERLINK mailto:hikaru.mizuno +81-3-52086207Executive SummaryU.S.non-residentialconstructionisakeyi

26、ndicatorofdemandforengineeringand constructionservices,heavymachinery,HVAC,steel,andotherindustrialproducts andservices.GiventheimportanceoftheUSnon-residentialconstructionmarket to many of the companies in the UBS industrial coverage universe, we find it informativetoassesstheunderlyingdrivers,tren

27、ds,andoutlookofthemarket.Figure 1: Company Exposure to US Non-Res (UBSe)95%80% 80% 77%65% 65% 62%56%52% 50%45% 45%41% 40% 40% 38% 38%33% 30% 29%27% 26%20%16% 15% 15% 13%9% 9%5%TPC HEES PWR URI CRH ACM ATKR MDR FERG NUE JEC MTW LII STLD FLS NCS SPXC SITE FLR TEX CAT PNR AKS DEX KMT CMI KBR ITWSource:

28、 UBS estimates, Company reportsNote: NUE, STLD, X, and AKS exposure is based on shipment volumesOur viewAfter growing 4.7% YoY in 2018, we expect total non-residential spending to slow to 0.8% growth in 2019 and decline 0.1% in 2020, as continued Public spending growth partially offsets declines in

29、Private construction spending. We think Public spending is in the beginning of a growth cycle, as state level support for infrastructure projects could provide a multi-year tailwind. We expect Private non-res spending to be flat to down 1% in 2019 and down 1-2% in 2020, and Public spending to grow 2

30、-3% in 2019 and 1-2% in 2020.Figure 2: UBS non-residential construction forecastsJan 2019T12MPctofTotalYoY GrowthUBSePrior UBSe20182019 YTD2019202020192020Water, Sewage & Waste35,8955%11.3%2.6%7.0%5.0%5.0%Transportation52,2047%14.8%9.8%5.0%2.0%5.0%Highway & Street93,33512%4.2%14.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Manufa

31、cturing65,1859%-2.1%3.1%2.0%5.0%2.0%Communication24,5413%-0.8%-5.1%1.0%1.0%1.0%Educational94,78913%3.4%8.2%1.0%0.0%0.0%Health Care41,9616%0.3%-1.9%0.0%-3.0%0.0%Power100,31313%3.8%1.7%0.0%-2.0%0.0%Office73,33710%9.0%8.2%-1.0%-5.0%-5.0%Commercial89,29512%2.0%-3.5%-5.0%-5.0%2.0%Other79,42111%8.9%10.2%1

32、.0%1.0%1.0%Total750,278100%4.7%4.7%0.8%-0.1%1.0%Private453,57460%3.4%2.7%-0.4%-1.2%0.4%Public296,70440%6.8%8.5%2.6%1.5%2.0%Source: US Census Bureau, UBS estimatesWe are most cautious on the Health Care, Power, Office, and Commercial categories. Our forecasts are supported by our top down and bottom

33、up analysis.-UBS Evidence Lab Non-Res Macro forecasts private spending (ex-power) to begin declining YoY in 1H19-UBS Evidence Lab Non-Res Macro forecasts private spending (ex-power) to begin declining YoY in 1H19-Dodge total non-res building starts down 4.7% in 2018 (on a square foot basis)-Netpurch

34、asesofcommercialrealestatebyChineseinvestorsin2018wasthelowest since 2012 ($2.68b in 2018 $5.61b in 2017).Total PrivateEvidenceCategoryPowerUBS Midstream team forecasts capex declines in 2019 and2020-UBSEvidenceLabgeospatialanalysisindicatesthesoftlineretailstorecountdeclined4% in 2018-Dodge store a

35、nd restaurant construction starts were down 20% in 2018Commercial-Dodge warehouse construction starts were down 6.5% in 2018-FederalReserveQuarterlyLendingSurvey:Lendingstandardscoreinourdashboardturned negative for the first time in Q4 2018 since Q4 2016; the loan demand score has been negative for

36、 of the eight quartersOffice-Dodge office and bank building construction starts were roughly flat in 2018-Manhattan office rental rates are plateauingHealthCareDodge hospital and other health treatment construction starts were down 10% in 2018Source: UBSWhat gives us confidence that Public spending

37、will continue to grow?WecontinuetobelievethatPublicsectorspendinghasjuststartedagrowthcycle, and expect growth to continue through 2020, supported by multi-year capital budgetplansalreadyenactedbymanystates(seeourdeepdiveonstatebudgets HYPERLINK /shared/d22dCRBsQU here),increasedfundingavailableforp

38、rojectsdrivenbyincreasedtaxesandfees includinganadditional272state&localtransportationballotmeasurespassedin theNovember2018election,and185billsintroducedby37statesinthefirsttwo months of 2019 related to increasing transportation investment. The potential for the new Congress to pass a federal infra

39、structure bill is not something we count on but would be upside (see takeaways from our latest trip to Washington DC HYPERLINK /shared/d2PAfj8L9kFmX here).Onarealbasis,Publicnon-residentialconstructionincreased2.7%YoYin2018, but was still 23% below the prior 2003 peak. We believe the Public real non

40、-res construction spending cycle troughed in 2014, but has yet to enter an expansionary cycle (i.e. has been neutralsince).Public contraction cycle 2009-2014Figure 4: Public non-residential spending (real 2012 $b)Public contraction cycle 2009-2014$400b$350b$300b$250b$200b$150b$100b$50b19691970196919

41、701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019e2020ePublicAvg.PublicSource: BEA, UBSWhy do we think Private spending will decline?We believe Private

42、 construction will roll over in 2019, with a slightly more pronounceddeclinein2020,drivenprimarilybyaCommercial,Office,andPower slowdown, partially offset by accelerating Manufacturinggrowth.Figure 5: UBS Private Non-Residential Construction Spending Forecast DetailCategory% of total Private non-res

43、2018Actual2019UBSe2020UBSe Comment on forecastEvidencePower21%3.8%0.0%Supported by modest transmission-2.0% spending and utility capex growth, partiallyoffsetbyacceleratingdeclinesin pipeline capex through 2020-UBS Midstream team forecasts capex to decline in 2019 and for declines to accelerate in 2

44、020-UBS Electric Utilities team forecasts industry capex will grow 3% in 2019-Many utilities have announced multi-year capital spending plans (e.g. Duke Energy, FirstEnergy, AEP)Drivenbydeclinesinretailonsecular trends / ecommerce growth, auto on-UBSEvidenceLabgeospatialanalysisoftheUSsoftlinesbrick

45、andmortarretailstorecountindicatesthattherateofstoreclosuresis increasing-Coresight Research tracked 4,810 store closure announcements in 2019 so far (5,524 in 2018)plateauing US auto sales, and warehouse -The neighborhood and community shopping center vacancy rate was 10.2% at the end of 2018 vs. 1

46、0.0% in 2017 per ReisCommercial19% 2.0% -5.0% -5.0% on tough comps (but still elevated onanabsolute basis relative to history) and slowing GDP growthDeclinesin2020toaccelerateasnew Office14% 9.0% -1.0% -5.0% supply hits the market in 2019Chemical projects (e.g. Total Bayport;-JLL classifies the majo

47、rity of retail markets across the US as falling markets-Dodge store and restaurant construction starts declined 20% on a square foot basis in 2018-Dodge warehouse construction starts declined 6.5% on a square foot basis in 2018-Warehouse spending set a record high in 2018 (tough comps)-UBS US Auto t

48、eam forecasts US auto sales to decline 2% in 2019 and be roughly flat in 2020-Office vacancy rates held steady in Q4 2018 at 14.9% per JLLJLL estimates 50 million sq.ft. of completions in 2019, which would mark the fourth consecutive year of 50m.s.f.+ of completions, but expects a significant slowdo

49、wn in deliveries beginning in 2020 given a pullback in starts-Dodge office and bank building construction starts were roughly flat on a sq.ft. basis in 2018-REITs cite strong development pipelines and note returns are more attractive for development than acquisitions-UBS North America Chemicals team

50、 notes there is an additional 9.3m MT of potential ethylene cracker projects with startups in theManufacturing 14% -2.1% 2.0% 5.0% Exxon San Patricio County; Shell Monaca) 2020+ timeframe as well as a number of derivative plants for start-up in 2020-2021and Gulf Coast LNG projects ramping up -Golden

51、 Pass LNG project reached FID in early 2019 and there have been developments towards FID for other LNG projects in recentconstructionConstruction starts were down 9% YoY HealthCare7% 0.3% 0.0% -3.0% in 2018 per Dodge (leads constructionput in place data by 12-18 months)months-Dodge hospital and othe

52、r health treatment construction starts declined 9.6% YoY in 2018 on a sq.ft. basis and 8.9% on a dollar basisModerating (but still positive) data center -UBS US Telecom team expects wireless capex growth to accelerate to 10%+ in 2019 from 5% in 2018Communication 5% -0.8% 1.0% 1.0% growth, but accele

53、rating wireless capexgrowth-Consensus estimates suggest hyperscale capex growth for data centers will decelerate to 15% in 2019 from 40% in 2018-Wholesale leasing volumes for data centers have slowed in recent quarters as new wholesale supply comes onlineSource: UBS, US CensusIn addition to the bott

54、om up category evidence referenced in HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Figure 5 above, our main pieces of top-down evidence are:The UBS Evidence Lab Non-Res Macro is forecasting Private non- residential construction spending, excluding Power, to begin declining on a YoY basis in 1H19.Figure 6: The UBS Evidenc

55、e Lab Macro is calling for declines in Private non- residential construction growth (excluding power) on a YoY basis in 1H1930%20%10%Mar-10 Jul-10 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17

56、 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19-10%-20%-30%-40%Y/Y:Evidence Lab Macro EstimatesY/Y:Census Bureau US Private Construction Spending Nonresidential SA xPowerSource: UBS Evidence Lab, US CensusDodge total non-residential building construction starts declined 4.7% YoY on a square foot basis in

57、 2018 and typically lead construction put in place data by 12-18 months.Figure 7: Dodge Non-Residential Building construction starts index vs. US Census Non-Residential Put in Place (2007 = 1.0)0.32007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720180.2200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018Sour

58、ce:DodgeData&AnalyticsNon-Residential Building Starts (000 $)Non-Residential Construction Put in Place (000 $) Non-Residential Building Starts (000 sq.ft.)Lending standards are tightening and commercial and industrial loan demand is weakening as measured using the Federal Reserves Quarterly Lending

59、Survey.Figure 8: Federal Reserve Quarterly Lending Survey6040200Score-20Score-40-60-802Q034Q032Q034Q032Q044Q042Q054Q052Q064Q062Q074Q072Q084Q082Q094Q092Q104Q102Q114Q112Q124Q122Q134Q132Q144Q142Q154Q152Q164Q162Q174Q172Q184Q18LendingStandardsLoan DemandSource: US Federal Reserve, UBSNote:Ascorebelow0for

60、Lending Standardsindicatesmorerespondentsreportedstandardsweretightening thaneasing;Ascorebelow0forLoanDemandindicatesmorerespondentsreporteddemandwasweakening than strengtheningReal Private non-residential construction spending likely peaked in 2016.Onarealbasis,2018PrivateUSnon-residentialconstruc