美国电信业：导航

1、24 January 2019United StatesUnited StatesEQUITIESTMTUS TelecomsNavigate 2019 waters on sturdy carriersFor an We DISH is our least preferred stock for which we TP we prefer to navigate 2019 through Verizon, TMUS, AT&T and ComcastNavigate 2019 waters on sturdy carriers2018,ashadoutlinedinnote HYPERLIN

2、K /R/10/LhRRprHWZ7fj?docid=1086503 WelcometotheICE2 ageof272018,dominatedbybigmovesinthesectorbytheorneedtoaddscale. Whileoperatorslikefocusedonbusiness,Sunil RajgopalAnalyst, Global Telecoms HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:sunilrajgopal sunilrajgopal+1 212 525 0267Christian Fangmann* An

3、alyst, TelecomsHSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG HYPERLINK mailto:christian.fangmannhsbc.de christian.fangmannhsbc.de+49 211 910 2002Nicolas Cote-Colisson*Head of European Telecoms Equity ProductHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:nicolas.cote-colisson nicolas.cote-colisson+44 20 79916826NealeAnderson*Head of

4、 Telecoms Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:neale.anderson.hk neale.anderson.hk+852 2996 6716operatorsliketheirportfolios.latter,inouralthough positive from a long-term caps in the term.For 2019, we expect to see more fragmentation in the co

5、ntent/pay-TV business as more players (like Apple, Disney, Comcast, Viacom) are set to enter the OTT content market. In pay TV, we expect the base to shrink further; we expect a total of c2.4m pay-TV net subscriber losses (vs 3.1m in 2018e) for the stocks under our coverage. In mobile, we think marg

6、ins could see upward movement driven by a) lower spending on handset promotions in 1H 2019 and b) the cost reduction steps undertaken by companies (like Verizon). With regard to M&A, while the TMUS/Sprint combination has yet to receive the regulatory green light, we believe there is reasonable proba

7、bility of the deal going through. TMUS expects the transaction to close in 1H 2019; however, with the partial US government shutdown in effect, there could be delays in regulatory review. We may see an end to the obstacles AT&T has encountered in relation to the Time Warner (TWX) acquisition. A posi

8、tive outcome for both transactions would likely remove uncertainty and potentially help valuations.Inthisreport,detailourstockandourpicksfor2019.WeDishto Reduce(fromHold)aTPof(fromOnabasis, prefer to gain to the sector through and Comcast (all rated Dish andSprint.* Employed by a non-US affiliate of

9、 HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsKey changes to ratings and estimatesCompanyTickerCcypriceOldNewOldNewDownside(USDm)2019eCompanyTickerCcypriceOldNewOldNewDownside(USDm)2019e2020e2019e2020eAT&TTUSD30.5838.0038.00BuyBuy24.3%222,5615.8x5.6x2.7x2.

10、6xCharterCHTR.OQUSD284.97310.00310.00HoldHold8.8%65,2378.6x8.3x4.5x4.4xComcastCMCSA.OQUSD34.9745.0045.00BuyBuy28.7%158,7667.3x6.6x2.8x2.4xDISHDISH.OQUSD29.5138.0024.00HoldReduce-18.7%17,74712.9x14.2x5.1x5.3xSprintS.NUSD6.044.804.80ReduceReduce-20.5%24,6296.9x7.5x4.4x4.4xTMUSTMUS.OQUSD66.8376.0076.00

11、BuyBuy13.7%56,6986.5x6.1x1.7x1.2xVerizonVZ.NUSD56.9962.0062.00BuyBuy8.8%235,4846.6x6.3x2.0 x1.7xImpliedUpside/MktCapEV/EBITDANetDebt/EBITDANotes: Priced as of close at 22 January 2019. *Sprint and TMUS multiples are based on cash EBITDA. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesDisclosures & Disc

12、laimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncView HSBC Global Researchat: HYPERLINK / Cherry-pick sturdy carriers Verizon, AT&T, TMUS and Comca

13、st are our preferred stocks for 2019; DISH is our least preferred stock We cut our TP for DISH to USD24 from USD38 as we turn more cautious on spectrum monetization prospects; downgrade to Reduce Asset-mix, business momentum, RoICs, leverage and shareholder remuneration potential drive our stock pic

14、ks; on a relative risk-reward basis, we prefer Verizon, AT&T, TMUS and Comcast (all rated Buy)To navigate the 2019 waters to is a 3 in in in in HYPERLINK /R/10/TVdShpF5dKax?docid=1111878 in it in a in HYPERLINK /R/10/BJxN7QjWZ7fj?docid=1111079 HYPERLINK /R/10/BJxN7QjWZ7fj?docid=1111079 8 in in of US

15、 Telecoms stock price performances since the beginning of 2018 through 2019 to dateNote: Priced as of 22 January 2019. Source: Refinitiv DatastreamVerizon: The sturdiest ship to sailAT&T: Coming out of rough waters choose sturdy carriersVerizonWe continue to like Verizon due to its relatively better

16、 RoIC, strong position in mobile (once again illustrated by the strong net additions and lower churn in Q4 2018), lower debt/leverage position (c2.0 x 2019e net debt/EBITDA), lower exposure to pay-TV (9% of revenues) and cost-cutting initiatives.In September 2018, Verizon announced a voluntary separ

17、ation program for select US-based management employees. About 10,400 eligible employees are expected to leave under this program by end-June 2019 with nearly half already exiting in December 2018. If we were to assume an average of cUSD100k/employee/annum cost, this implies cost savings of cUSD1bn p

18、er annum. This separation program forms part of the planned USD10bn of cost-cutting through 2021, which coupled with the more rational and subdued competition in mobile, in our view, continues to be supportive of the stock. Additionally, the planned rollout of 5G services (nationwiderolloutin2019)sh

19、ouldaidthecompanyinpotentiallygarneringagreatershareofthe broadbandmarket(atthecostofsmallercableplayers),whichshouldbenefitrevenuegrowth.WerateVerizonasBuywithaDCF-basedfairvaluetargetpriceofUSD62(nochange).TP impliesupsideofc9%,and weseeadividendyieldof4.3%for2019e.AT&TAT&T had a difficult 2018, d

20、ragged down by weaker-than-expected growth in mobile, pressure on its pay-TV business and the overhang related to the TWX deal. For 2019, we continue to expect declines for the pay-TV business; however, we expect to see a resolution of the TWX situation (the decision by a panel of judges regarding t

21、he Department of Justices appeal on AT&T/TimeWarner merger is expected before 1H 2019, see below). We also expect the companys momentum in mobile to improve, helped by the launch of 5G services (2H 2019).Note: US District Judge Richard Leon (who reviewed the DOJs request to block the AT&T/Time Warne

22、r merger) ruled on 12 June 2018 to grant AT&T the right to proceed with its acquisition of TimeWarner(de-listed);however,theDoJfiledanappealagainsttheruling,andon6December 2018, a panel of three Judges heard DoJappeal.US: Mobile service revenue trendsNote: As reported not adjusted for one-offs or re

23、statements. Source: Company dataT-Mobile: Continuing its northward courseDespite the short-term headwinds, we think AT&T, with its strong position in mobile, fixed- broadband, pay TV and content assets, remains strategically well placed. Moreover, at current levels, the stock is trading at a signifi

24、cant discount to most of its peers (5.8x 2019e EV/EBITDA vs. 6.4x 2019e EV/EBITDA for telecom and 8.0 x 2019e EV/EBITDA for media, peers), and its dividend yield (6.7% 2019e) is one of the highest among the stocks in our coverage providing strong support for the stock. Although the companys leverage

25、 has increased following the TWX transaction, we do not think there is any risk to the dividend.We rate AT&T as Buy with a DCF-based fair value target price of USD38 (unchanged), which implies upside of c24%.T-MobileT-Mobile (TMUS) continues to deliver positive operational momentum with its subscrib

26、er addition numbers for Q4 2018 once-again exceeding consensus expectations (see page 7). Approval of the TMUS/Sprint combination remains a key potential catalyst for the stock.FCC to We a of HYPERLINK /R/10/7WZlQVcWZ7fj?docid=1102305 of to on a to or in for is to We rate TMUS as Buy with a DCF-base

27、d target price USD76 (unchanged), which implies upside of c14%.US: Fixed-line revenue trends (excluding satellite pay TV)Note: As reported not adjusted for restatements. Source: Company dataComcast Transatlantic voyage adds more weight; but steadyCharter Heavily laden, with little wind in the sailsS

28、print: Waiting for “merger approval” boatDish: Lost at seaComcastComcast closed the acquisition of Sky paying almost USD50bn for the asset in October 2018 (See our note HYPERLINK /R/10/cPTtKVpWZ7fj?docid=1104864 Astronomical quest towards Sky, 27 September 2018). The acquisition improves the company

29、s geographical diversification and adds to its scale in pay TV.However, the deal has also led to a material increase in debt levels, pushing up net debt/EBITDA from c2.1x times (pre-transaction) to 3.4x (post transaction). This limits the potential for shareholder remuneration via buy backs for the

30、next three years as the company works to reduce its debt and leverage. In addition, Comcasts exposure to the UK and other European countries is likely to add Brexit-related FX risks to earnings. However, despite our concern around debt levels and the limited potential for shareholder remuneration (i

31、n particular via share buybacks), we think the companys strong foothold in content, pay TV, and the internet, together with its ability to generate relatively higher RoIC (versus peers), merit a premium. At the current level, however, the company is trading at a discount to peers, at 7.3x 2019e EV/E

32、BITDA versus peers at c8.0-10 x (Altice, Charter, Cable one, Walt Disney, CBS).We rate the stock Buy, with a DCF-based fair value target price of USD45 (unchanged), which implies upside of c29% at the current price.CharterCharter, in our view, lacks any near-term catalyst that could lead to material

33、 rerating of the stock. We remain concerned about a) the companys reliance on pay TV (c40% of revenues) b) high leverage and c) its relatively lower RoIC.At the current level, the stock is trading at 2019e EV/EBITDA of 8.6x and EV/OCF of 19.5x, which compares to 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 10.5x EV/OCF for C

34、omcast.We rate the stock Hold, with a DCF-based fair value target price of USD310, which implies upside of c9% at the current price.SprintSprints position remains tough from both a strategic/operational perspective and with regard to its financial situation. Despite Sprints continued progress in hal

35、ting declines in services revenues and improving its profitability, we believe that, as a stand-alone entity, the company may not be able to materially transform its subscale position.The companys historical underinvestment versus peers (like Verizon and AT&T) limits its ability to substantially imp

36、rove its position, its high net debt (c4.4x 2019e cash EBITDA vs c2.0-3.0 x 2019e EBITDA for peers like AT&T, Verizon, and TMUS) limits its ability to scale up its investments materially, without raising additional capital.We rate Sprint Reduce, with a DCF-based fair value TP (reflecting our assessm

37、ent of the value of the standalone business) of USD4.80 (no change), implying downside of c21%. We note that the current Sprint share price of USD6.04 is largely tracking the TMUS/Sprint combination terms, and we therefore doubt that there would be any material near-term upside for the stock in the

38、event that the tie-up with TMUS were to gain regulatory approval. In our assessment, at the current share price, 50% of the deal-related upside is already priced in and we believe that any further rerating would depend largely on a successful integrationprogress.DishWe have previously flagged DISH a

39、s one of our least preferred stocks in the sector (see our report HYPERLINK /R/10/LhRRprHWZ7fj?docid=1086503 Welcome to the ICE2 age, 27 March 2018. This remains the case, even though the stock is down c41% since beginning of 2018, as the company continues to struggle. In fact, our bearishness has i

40、ncreased.Dishs core cash generating business (pay TV) is likely to shrink further, in our view, with the anticipated entry of yet more OTT services (from the likes of Apple, Disney, and AT&T) and thecontinued shift of consumers towards OTT platforms (like Hulu and Netflix). We also remain unenthusia

41、stic about DISHs spectrum monetization path and the revenue opportunity arising from spectrum/IoT network deployment. On pages 11-12, we evaluate the potential value from the IoT network undertaking.We assumed DISH eventually sell all of its as the for 700MHz and AWS-4 sales has likely closed, our n

42、ow is that Dish may use part of for IoT rollout still selling AWS-3 time), given that the final rollout for AWS-3 is still far do not think DISH reap a huge premium from any sale. We also remain and its potential for funding the mobile rollout.According to Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen (see Bloomberg,

43、 24 May, 2018) DISH may need cUSD10bn or more for phase 2 of its 5G network build out, and is expected to spend USD500m-USD1bn through 2020 for its NB-IoT build-out. DISH currently has net debt of c13bn (4.7x LTM EBITDA), hence raising an additional USD10bn for IoT network rollout may require an equ

44、ity capital raising or monetization of few spectrum bands.We value DISH on a SOTP basis, valuing the pay-TV business at USD9.8bn, and the IoT business and spectrum monetization at USD15.9bn. Adjusting for associates, minorities, and net debt, we arrive at an implied equity value of USD11.4bn or USD2

45、4 per share, which is our target price. This implies downside of c19% and we rate DISH Reduce. See pages 11-12 for further details of our valuation methodology, including details of the different scenarios for spectrum monetization and its impact on valuations.EV of pay-TV business EV of Spectrum as

46、sets Total EV+EV of pay-TV business EV of Spectrum assets Total EV+AssociatesMinoritiesNetdebtEquity value0.42.9329,7791861,3500.42.9189,7791861,3508,4150.42.9249,7791861,350 Bullcase USDmUSD per Bearcase USDm USD pershare Base case USDm USD per shareSource: HSBC estimatesOverall, we advocate invest

47、ors focus on stocks that have lower exposure to the pay-TV business, relatively better RoIC, and relatively lower leverage, and which display strong business momentum and potential for decent shareholder remuneration (via dividends and buybacks). On a relative risk-reward basis, we prefer to play th

48、e sector through Verizon, AT&T, TMUS and Comcast (all rated Buy) versus Dish and Sprint (both rated Reduce).Estimate changesWe adjust our 2018-20e revenue estimates to reflect the Q3 earnings and our revised expectations for 2019e and beyond. See the table below for a summary of the changes. AT&T: W

49、e increase our revenue estimates by 1-2% for 2018-20e to reflect better-than- expected revenue development in Q3 and our expectation for a gradual improvement in mobile growth rates. However, we trim our EBITDA estimates by 0.5% on average, which is largely a reflection of our cautious view on EBITD

50、A development in the pay-TV business. Charter: We increase our 2019-20e revenue estimates to reflect better-than-expected momentum in the advertising and enterprise segment, but we trim our EBITDA estimates to reflect the continued increase in content costs, which have risen from c58% of video reven

51、ues in Q3 2015 to c64% in Q3 2018.US telecom and media: Summary of estimate changesUSDm, except per shareNewestimatesOldestimatesChangeAT&TDec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Revenue171,765185,996185,553169,876182,460181,9661.1%1.9%2.0%EBITDA54,46759,96460,65554,66460,44760,827-0.4

52、%-0.8%-0.3%HSBC Net income21,30524,03824,99421,70724,34224,969-1.9%-1.2%0.1%HSBC EPS (USD)3.133.283.413.203.353.44-2.1%-2.0%-0.7%Capex23,08823,90823,74423,27923,22723,164-0.8%2.9%2.5%CharterDec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Revenue43,42144,75145,66843,48444,31645,115-0.1%1.0%1.2%

53、EBITDA15,61915,91216,48215,93016,16316,889-1.9%-1.6%-2.4%HSBC Net income1,4831,8462,0911,6251,8172,309-8.8%1.6%-9.4%HSBC EPS (USD)6.528.5910.347.238.7212.04-9.9%-1.5%-14.2%Capex9,2048,7698,4419,2979,1148,983-1.0%-3.8%-6.0%Comcast*Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-19Dec-20Dec-19Dec-20Revenue112,347116,429119,473

54、90,88793,64923.6%24.3%EBITDA34,13136,07037,33030,03931,50113.6%14.5%HSBC Net income13,17414,76516,04512,58813,8254.7%6.8%HSBC EPS (USD)2.873.213.492.763.033.9%6.1%Capex10,59510,89311,1459951102016.5%6.8%DishDec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Revenue13,50912,31711,41813,65312,76612

55、,036-1.1%-3.5%-5.1%EBITDA2,8442,4082,1282,5892,2712,0019.9%6.1%6.4%HSBC Net income1,6431,3411,1951,4371,2271,06114.3%9.3%12.6%HSBC Basic EPS (USD)3.522.872.563.072.622.2714.3%9.3%12.6%Capex379383343471766722-19.5%-50.0%-52.6%SprintMar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Revenue33,17933

56、,39133,01132,40633,18133,5372.4%0.6%-1.6%EBITDA12,29413,17313,20512,02412,94413,3802.3%1.8%-1.3%HSBC Net income386-533-1,06766336786nmnmnmHSBC EPS (USD)0.09-0.13-0.260.020.080.19nmnmnmCapex13,54613,11912,64413,44813,17713,0560.7%-0.4%-3.2%TMUSDec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Rev

57、enue43,17745,85347,06443,17745,41947,0390.0%1.0%0.1%EBITDA11,87812,93913,57011,85412,90313,5710.2%0.3%0.0%HSBC Net income2,8673,6504,1552,8123,5054,1661.9%4.2%-0.3%HSBC EPS (USD)3.384.314.913.314.134.912.0%4.4%0.0%Capex5,3425,7775,8935,3425,6475,8820.0%2.3%0.2%VerizonDec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-18Dec-19De

58、c-20Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Revenue131,167132,660133,918131,267133,200134,754-0.1%-0.4%-0.6%EBITDA44,28548,12348,91646,31947,90748,264-4.4%0.4%1.4%HSBC Net income18,59119,71620,62118,69719,54120,235-0.6%0.9%1.9%HSBC EPS (USD)4.494.764.984.524.724.89-0.7%0.9%1.9%Capex17,22817,97817,91516,73017,87417,7103.0

59、%0.6%1.2%Note: *For Comcast, FY18 was reported on 23 Jan 2019. Source: HSBC estimates Comcast: Our estimate changes primarily reflect the consolidation of SKY as Comcast completed the acquisition in October. On the back of the acquisition, we increase our revenue estimates by c24% for 2019-20e and o

60、ur EBITDA estimates by c14%. DISH: We cut our revenue estimates by c1-5% for 2018-20e to reflect our cautious stance on the pay-TV business as the market fragments further with the introduction of new OTT services from players like T-Mobile, Disney and AT&T. However, we increase our EBITDA estimates