国际资本流动

1、国际资本流动1本章重点讲述的是国际资本的流动方式、原因及形成原理。通过学习使学生理解如何较好地利用外资，加强对国际资本流动的监管，防范其带来的金融风险。25.1:International Capital Flow:Its general framework形式forms来源与结构source & structure渠道channels投机资金Speculative funds3形式 Forms直接投资FDI证券投资Portfolio Investment国际信贷Intl Credit其他Others4source & structure来源Source国际储蓄Intl savingsInco

2、me available - Consumption结构StructureIntl banks credit Lending or finance from government/Intl financial organizationInvestment from firms(MNC)Others5Sources and structureSee table 5-1of textbook for the structure.See table 5-2 textbook for sources.6Channels官方渠道Official channels私人渠道Private channelsF

3、DIPortfolio investmentBank credit & othersSee table 5-3 for the size of capital flow.7国际投机资本Speculative fundsDefinition没有固定的投资领域、期限较短（一般在1年以下）、以追逐高额短期利润为目的而在各市场之间移动的短期资本。特点Portfolio rather than FDIBetween securities market, FX market, M/M, Derivatives marketPerform high risk transactionsArbitrage8Sp

4、eculative funds: some remarksMost SF are channeled to emerging marketThe structure has been changed a lotPortfolio investment goes upFDI & other forms flow declineSpeculators tend to be institutional rather than individualMajor objective is arbitrage in FX market and M/M9Speculative funds: the sizeA

5、ccording to IMFUS$ 7,200 billion20% of of global GDPdaily transaction volume is about US$ 1,200 billion, 100 times more than physical goodsdeeply engaged into margin tradinghigh leveraged funding10Speculative funds: the sizeAccording to BISsee table 5-4 for daily FX transactions volume in emerging m

6、arket.See table 5-5 for contract volume of derivatives trading.11Speculative funds: the sizeCross board capital flow observedup to 1 trillion from 440 billion of 1990capitalization of foreign bonds and equities to GDP in major industrialized countries are more than 100%capitalization of foreign bond

7、s and equities in US are more than US$10 trillionthe total capital available in major industrialized countries are more than US$ 52 trillion12Speculative funds: the sizeThe total assets to GDP of 300 largest institutional investors in US goes up to 110% (US$7,200billion) in 1993 from 30% (US$535bill

8、ion) in 1975The assets managed by insurance funds, pension funds and mutual funds in 5 major industrialized countries up to US$ 13 trillion in 1993 (See table 5-6 for the detail)13Speculative funds: the sizeThe capitalization of global equity market excess to US$14 trillion in 1993The outstanding ba

9、lance of public debt in 7 major industrialized countries is US$ 9 trillionThe assets managed by institutional investor in 5 major industrialized countries have increased 400% and its ratio to GDP doubled from 1980s14Speculative funds: the motive for movement全球经济发展不平衡，资金供求失衡，获利机会不均等发展中国家设法结束金融抑制，进行了金

10、融深化金融市场发展非常迅速，出现政策优惠以及超额盈利机会发达国家广泛的金融自由化，为资本流动创造了条件网络以及通讯技术的发展，使资本低成本、迅速转移成为现实15Speculative funds: to where and whyMost SF are channeled to emerging market, id. Asia and Latin AmericaCause:Market integration and financial globalizationHigh growth rate and interest rateWeak controlRapid development o

11、f capital market16投机资本与货币冲击Speculative funds and financial attackThe case of XX17XX货币狙击战示意图（总图）货币市场债券市场掉期市场现货市场股票市场港元外汇市场股指期货市场期货市场18XX货币狙击战示意图(一)特区政府货币市场外汇市场投机商（索罗斯）1)借入港元2)抛港元，买美元3)抛美元，买港元4)再抛港元买美元5)放弃联系汇率，港元贬值6)低价购入港元7)偿还港元，获利提高利率劝告19XX货币狙击战示意图(二)特区政府债券市场外汇市场投机商（索罗斯）1)发行港元债券2)抛港元，买美元3)抛美元，买港元4)再抛

12、港元买美元5)放弃联系汇率，港元贬值6)低价购入港元7)偿还港元，获利？20XX货币狙击战示意图(三)特区政府掉期市场外汇市场投机商（索罗斯）1)买入即期港元，卖出远期港元2)抛港元，买美元3)抛美元，买港元4)再抛港元买美元5)放弃联系汇率，港元贬值6)低价购入港元7)履行远期合约，获利？21XX货币狙击战示意图(四)特区政府港元现货期货市场外汇市场投机商（索罗斯）1)买入即期港元，卖出港元期货2)抛港元，买美元3)抛美元，买港元4)再抛港元买美元5)放弃联系汇率，港元贬值6)低价购入港元7)履行期货合约，获利？22XX货币狙击战示意图(五)特区政府股票市场外汇市场投机商（索罗斯）1)卖出X

13、X股票，获得港元2)抛港元，买美元3)抛美元，买港元4)再抛港元买美元5)放弃联系汇率，港元贬值6)低价购入港元7)低价买入股票，获利托市措施23XX货币狙击战示意图(六)特区政府股票市场股指期市投机商（索罗斯）1)大量卖出XX股票2)大量卖空港股期指4)低价购入港股期指，平仓获利5)低价买入港股，获利3)港府放弃托市，导致港股暴跌？24ICF: Some Special Features资本输出入速度与规模迅速增加发达国家同时输出资本和输入资本发展中国家在输入资本的同时，也开始输出资本资本往来中的直接投资大大增加国际组织成为资金集散的主要途径国际资本流动更多地采用证券化形式国际投机资本规模日

14、益庞大，对国际金融市场和国际金融体系的稳健运行造成了较大的冲击255.2:International Capital Flow: Economic EffectEconomic benefitsRisks & shortcomings26Economic Benefit(1)May helpful to the capital formation of less developed countries资本的供给取决于储蓄能力和储蓄愿望，资本的需求取决于投资的刺激。 据世界银行统计，1995年，发展中国家获得了总额为2313亿美元的外部资金；其中，642亿美元得自传统的官方开发贷款，而得自国际金

15、融市场的私人资本则高达1671亿美元。 不发达国家引进外资的形式包括外国企业直接投资、国际借款（官方与非官方）以及赠与，其中以外国直接投资为主。27Economic Benefit(2)May helpful to promote the international trade development受资国：对外贸易的基础与能力扩大，直接投资环境得到改善。投资国：带动了商品输出，接近最终消费者，提高了产品的竞争能力对外直接投资的部门对国际贸易的商品结构起着优化作用 有利于贸易方式的多样化 国际资本流动推动了战后贸易的自由化 出口信贷直接推动了国际贸易的扩大28Economic Benefit(

16、3)Helpful to stimulate the development of international financial marketICF accelerate the process of economic and financial integration and globalizationHave greatly increased the liquidity of international financial marketCross board speculation tends to minimize the price movement of financial ma

17、rket to some extentICF may be helpful to solve the BOP problem29Risks & shortcomings(1)FX risks: possibility of loss by individual or institutions due to unexpected FX rate changetransaction risk: claims & debts before and after settlementsettlement risk: claims & debts during settlementaccounting r

18、isk: reporting items of statementeconomic risk: future revenue or earnings itemssovereign risk: all items could be affected30Risks & shortcomings(2)FX risk may deteriorate the trade conditions at macro-levelFX risk may cause problems to enterprises at micro-level31Risks & shortcomings(3)利率风险 利率风险是由于

19、国际金融市场的利率变动使借贷主体遭受损失的可能性国际商业银行贷款和国际债券是涉及利率风险的国际资本流动的两种主要形式32Risks & shortcomings(4)Interest riskcause problems to cross board bank credit businessto borrowerto lendercause problems to international bonds flotationto international bond issuerto international bond investor33Risks & shortcomings(5)Infl

20、uence to banking system of recipient countryto increase the asset size of bankssome anomaliesdomestic money supplyto alter the structure of banks balance sheetnet inflow periodoffset operation by central bankincrease banks available fundsoffset operation methods34Risks & shortcomingsInfluence to sec

21、urities market of recipient countyFDIPortfolio investmentdecrease the market efficiencyincrease the correlations between domestic and foreign marketincrease the market volatility35Risks & shortcomingsToo many short term capital withdrawal may cause serious problems to recipient countySee pp154.361.谋

22、求利差好处2.没有汇价风险外资大量流入XX国1.房地产供 过于求2.房地产价格飙升3.股票价格狂涨1.房地产业泡沫发展2.股市大涨1. 股市后继乏力2.房地产业资金周转不灵银行资金周转不灵存款人挤提！1.大量进入XX国房地产业2.大量进入XX国资本市场1.连续13年汇率稳定在1兑2426泰铢2.1992年起开放资本项目经济起飞时：1.资金短缺；2.通货膨胀Risks & shortcomings of ICF:the case of Thailand1.央行监管不力2.外资没能促进XX国产业结构的调整3.只有房地产业能忍受高利率长期利率高企37外资流入XX国的过程外国投资者外汇市场XX国银行X

23、X国银行XX国房地产商XX国券商38外资撤出XX国的过程外国投资者外汇市场XX国银行XX国银行XX国房地产商XX国券商395. 3 控制不良影响不良影响：通货膨胀压力、实际汇率升值、竞争能力降低、国际收支不平衡、国内金融市场不稳定政策措施：货币、汇率以及财政政策政策依据：国际资本流入的构成（是长期资本还是短期资本）各种政策工具的有效性及灵活性本国国内金融市场的特点40控制不良影响：货币政策政策目标：通过中和操作减轻国际资本流入所导致的国内信贷膨胀及实际汇率升值政策措施提高存款准备金比率 提高或者降低存款、边际存款准备率弊病：实质上相当于对银行系统征收的一种可转嫁税；导致国内利率上升，刺激资本流入；无法控制由非银行金融机构和资本市场作为中介的资本流入；使得银行体系相对于非银行金融体系处于不利的竞争