月作文机经30题

TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u航空公司减少航 有机食品 Pita店扩 美食书 HR要对收益下降负 学校宿 贸易逆 建立生物技术公 OakCity’sShop月原始原ThefollowingeditorialappearedintheElmCityp"TheconstructionlastyearofashopmallindowntownOakCitywasamistake.Sincethemallhasopened,anumberoflocalbusinesseshaveclosed,andthedowntownareasuffersfromanacuteparkingshortage,andarrestsforcrimeandvagrancyhaveincreasedinthenearbyOakCityPark.ElmCityshouldpayattentiontotheexampleoftheOakCitymallanddenytheapplicationtobuildashopmallinElmCity."考思因果关系-错误因果：不一定是由于shopmallopen导致其他商店关闭当地商人纷纷选择；(2)和流浪者增多可能是其他因素造成的，比如房价太高，大学生毕业找不到工作，只好选择或者流浪。错误类比：ElmCityOakCity不可完全等同，两座城市的经济状况，基础设施和生活水忽略了带来的好处，例如createnew ernmentrevenue,置疑：以上提到的几项数据全部来源不明，可能不够中立客观考范InthiseditorialtheauthorrebukesOakCityforallowingtheconstructionofanewdowntownshopmall.Citinganumberofproblemsthathaveoccurredsincethebuildingofth,theauthorconcludesthattheresidentsofOakCityhavenotbenefitedfromthandthatOakCityexercisedpoorjudgmentinallowingthtobebuilt.Amongtheproblemscitedbytheauthoraretheclosureoflocalbusinesses,lackofparkinginthedowntownarea,andincreasedtrashandlitterinacityparknearthemall.Moreover,theauthorarguesthatprofitsderivedfromsalesarenotbenefitingOakCitybecausetheownerofthemalllivesinanothercity.Theauthor'sargumentisproblematicinseveralrespects.Intheplace,theauthorassumesthatadditionofthenewmallisthecauseofthevariousproblemscited.Theonlyevidenceofferedtosupportthiisthattheconstructionofthemalloccurredbeforetheseproblemsmanifestedthemselves.However,thisevidenceisinsufficienttoestablishtheclaiminquestion.Achronologicalrelationshipisonlyoneoftheindicatorsofacausalrelationshipbetweentwoevents.Inthesecondplace,theauthorhasfocusedonlyonnegativeeffectsthemalthashadonthecity.Amoredetailedysisofthesituationmightrevealthatthepositivebenefitsforthecityfaroutweightheproblemsonwhichtheauthorfocuses.Forexample,newjobsmighthavebeencreatedfortheresidentsofOakCity,andtaxrevenuesmighthavebeenincreasedforthecity.LackingamorecomprehensiveysisoftheimpactofthonOakCity,itispresumptuousonthepartoftheauthortoconcludethatOakCity'sdecisiontoallowthemalltobebuiltwasInconclusion,theauthor'sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetodemonstratethattheconstructionofthemallcausedthevariousproblemsmentioned.Theauthorwouldalsohavetoshowthatthenegativeeffectsoftheprojectoutweighedthepositiveeffects.Olympic月原始原ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreporttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasanizationslearnhowtodobetter, emoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostof3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusize考思错误类比：Thefoodindustryisnotogoustothecolorfilmindustry.食品行业与彩色胶因果关系：Otherfactorsthatmaycontributetothecostdeclineoftheprintingcostshouldbeconsideredandruledout.无根据假设：Theconclusionoftheargumentisbasedonagratuitousassumptionthatthecompanycanminimizecostandizeprofitbecausethecompanyhasbeenconductedfor25years.(1)(2)costprofit就会增加，只有在销考范Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendinthecostsoffilmprocessinera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthisconclusiontheauthorcitesteralprinciplethat“asanizationslearnhowtodothingsbetter,emoreefficient.”Thisprinciple,coupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor’srosyprediction.Thisargumentisunconvincingbecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflaws.,theauthor’sforecastofminimalcostsandumprofitsrestsonthegratuitousassumptionthatOlympicFoods’“longexperience”hastaughtithowtodothingsbetter.Thereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevidencetosupportthisassumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthefood-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyisentirelyunfounded.Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryareapplicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Asitstandstheauthor’sargumentisnotcompelling.TostrengthentheconclusionthatOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsand umprofitsinthefuture,theauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatthecompanyhaslearnedhowtodothingsbetterasaresultofits25yearsofexperience.Supportingexamplesdrawnfromindustriesmoresimilartothefood-processingindustrywouldfurthersubstantiatetheauthor’s月原assistantmarkingredirectorwritetothecompany'smarketdirectordeparmetn:basedonoursamllerfranchisesinfor,peopleprefertogotolocalownedgrocery,sincethelocalgroceyalreadyhavethecutomerloyalty.samethingwillhappentothesupermarketchainwhichwewillopenatthisareaeventhoughwecanprovidelowerprice.forsolvingthisproblem,theassistantdirectorsuggestthat:shiftinghalfnationaladvisebudgettothesponsringlocalcommunicatoinwhichfocusafter-schoolcommuncatoin.然后问你这个哥们的观点有什么问题Byyeincreasemarketsharecutinternationaladbudget，培养loyaltygrocery竞争。V1.marketingdirectorstores在进入小城市的时候，即使价钱很低，质量localgrocerystorescustomersloyalty。于是他为了develoployaltylocallifelocalpeople接受他们，包括建足球场神马的要投资钱的。therefore他的公司更有竞争力。V2.marketcomarketingassistantdirectorceo提交了一份关于其旗下商店在一supermarkets。memocustomerloyalty的问题（即便在提供低廉价格以及适销对路的产品的情况下，销售情况依然不好）。memo基于这个分析提出了解决方设施，sponsormarketco在当地的customerloyalty,进而提高销考思因果关系-忽略他因：(1)Loyalty和消费选择的关系没有详细论据，忽略了其他因素，比如交通、服务态度；(2)做也许效果比developconsumerloyalty项目的效果更好，建操场之类顾客不一定买账；(3)调整宣传的搞基础建设不一定能让localpeople在MarketCo买东西；(4)培养客户忠诚度是一个漫长的过程无根据假设：movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalincreasethelocalmarketsharedeveloployalty.药店竞月原By讲了一个H公司的CEO准备在A这个地方建3个分店因为这里有一个叫K的PHAMACYDRUGSTORElargestmarketshareinthelocalposition.CEO觉得通过KLEARDINGPHAMACY。V1.Holner's是一家连锁药店。它的vice给CEO道在寻找机会建3家新店。在Alligard市，有的两大rival。其中KulbyDrug在该市拥有很多忠实客户。KDA市的市中心建立一家店；最近几年又在该市其它地方新建三家门店应该在这几家门店的旁边建立的新店以nationalbranddrugs的价格优（我Aleadingdrugstoreoperation。A城市，但是大部分的市民还是选择去他们自，己的一个地方药店，他们都对那个药店loyal。现在应该aggressive一点，努力把这些衷心于地方药店的人搞过来。现在那个地方药店要新开三个店了的策略是，在那三个新地方药店旁边开三个H药店，并且在nationalbrand本国品牌的药上面提供的，这样以来那些市民就会发现H药店比他们的地方药店要好然后就能成为了。，考思Klocalstore，HKstrategyH药店上未必会获得居民的欢迎。无根据假设：(1HKstorelowerpriceonnationalbrandsKlongtimecustomer。当地的消费者可能会更注重服务好，种类多，安全有保障等。(2)“从r拿到bigvolume的货就不一定有优势。(3)三家店能成功不一定能称为当地的marketleader：要考虑别的竞争财务公月原By个sale是指总体的还是alsoftware的了】的方法是给homeuser的alsoftwareadvancedspecialfeatures。FromGMATAWA题库-ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumtoateamdeveloaccountingsoftwareforSmartProSoftware,Inc.:“Currently,moreprofessionalaccountantsuseSmartProaccountingsoftwarethananyotherbrand.However,inthemarketforalaccountingsoftwarefornon-professionalstouseinpreparingtheir etaxreturns,manyofourcompetitorsareoutsellingus.Insurveys,ourprofessionalcustomersrepeatedlysaythattheyhavechosenSmartProSoftwarebecauseourmostsophisticatedsoftwareproductsincludemoreadvancedspecialfeaturesthancompetingbrands.Therefore,themosteffectivewayforustoincreasesalesofouralaccountingsoftwareforhomeuserswouldclearlybetoaddtheadvancedspecialfeaturesthatourprofessionalsoftwareproductscurrentlyoffer.”考思错误比较：他家的产品收专业欢迎是因为符合用户需求，thefactthatcompetitor’sproductismorepopularwithhomeusermaycontributetothegooduserexperience,integratedfunction,orbeautifuluserinterface.无根据假设把专业产品加到homeuser的中去一定能提高销量吗？用户可能因为功Smartpro的专业产品。公司雇临时月原By关于一个公司的报告，说最近一段时间这个公司利润下降了，所以想要效仿一个leadofautoindustry，replacefull-timeemplyeeswithche r,temporaryones.这样的花就可以减少laborcost。V1.讲的是关于设计行业利润这几年不高，但是Autoindustry这几年利润有所提高都是因为临时员工的成本低，它们工作时间少，比公司员工工资低，所以这个设计公司就要25%转换为临时工，相信一定可以带来短期内公司利润的提升还有长期的什么，V2.softwaredesigncompanyplanstocutitsbudgetinordertoincreaseprofits(反正就是为了使公司得到好处)。然后举了一个autoproductionindustry的例子，说autoindustryswift一些permanentlaborto临时工（temporary）,临时工比工人的工资低employeebenefits,autosoftwaredesign公司就觉得减少工，增加临时工同样可以bolstercurrentprofitsintheshorttermandbenefit公司inthelongterm.考思错误类比：将汽车公司与公司类别不当，两个行业都不一样，公司对技术要求因果关系：profitcost还要考虑eefficiencyblostercurrentprofitsintheshorttermandbenefitthecompanyinthelongterm?loyalty以及responsibility，或许换临时工也会让正式员工感到解雇，不能安心工作，如此一来就没stabilityinlongterm了。环境下，这些design公司相对其他领域的公司更加看重公司idea的工作，而且这样的design公司占领市场一个非常有效的方式就是开发出一款新好用的，这样雇佣大量的临时工很可能让公司的idea。公司网上培训员月原ByAdvertiseonlinetrainingprogramfornewemployees. profit。。V1.一篇文章，像是，说如果你聘用了一个新的员工，你需要花时间来训练他（ 作时间，而且筛选员工也浪费工作时间（devoteemployee）降低了产品的生产，降低了效益公司有一款onlineself-trainingprograms，用这个员工可以自己在家培训，节省了时间，同时thecostoftrainingprogramsismorethantheoffsetsavedmoneybyreduceworkforcetodevoteemployee.（这里没理解cost指的是online这个的cost还是原有的training的cost）因此买的online产品可以提高效益。V2.advertiseonlinetrainingprogram。brochure上的话：“……”，大意是推onlineinteractivetrainingprogramnewemployeestrainthemselves，这样不program会更加efficientreducecostsandincreaseprofitabilityonlineprogramsavedproductivityoffset掉。考思多的新人，这些课程是一人一个的，无法确定cost谁大谁小。商场扩大家居部月原始原Thefollowingappearedaspartofa mendationfromthebusinessmanagerofadepartmentstore.“Localclothingstoresreportedthattheirprofitsdecreased,o ag,forthethree-motperiodbetweenAugust1andOctober31.Storesthatsellproductsforthehomereportedthat, age,theirprofitsincreasedduringthissameperiod.Clearly,consumersarechoosingtobuyproductsfortheirhomesinsteadofclothing.Totakeadvantageofthistrend,weshouldreducethesizeofourclothingdepartmentsandenlargeourhomefurnishingsandhouseholdproductsdepartments.”考思置疑：riodofthreemonthistooshorttodrawageneralconclusionoftheoveralltrend.样本不足，三个月太短，不能统计出一个趋势。Whetherthereportsfromthelocalclothingstoresandstoresthatsellproductsforthehomearereliableornotarestillopentodoubt,thusmakingtheauthor'ssuggestiongroundless.错误比较-时间纵向：Thepastthreemonthstrenddoesnotguaranteethesameinthe(1)(3)无根据假设：扩大家具卖场一定增加收益。扩大家居部门需要雇员工、扩建仓库、提高日常费用，可能得不偿失。Bylocalreportprofitsale考范Baseduponsalesreportsoverathree-monthperiodthatindicateanincreaseinprofitsforstoresthatsellproductsforthehomeandadecreaseinprofitsforclothingstores,thebusinessmanagerofadepartmentstoreconcludesthatconsumersarechoosingtopurchasehomefurnishingsratherthanclothing.Onthebasisofthisconclusion,themanager mendsareductioninthesizeoftheclothingdepartmentandanincreaseinthesizeofthehome-furnishingsdepartment. mendationisproblematicintwocriticalIntheplace,theauthor’sconclusionthatconsumersarechoosingtobuyproductsfortheirhomesinsteadofclothingisbasedupontoosmallasample.Datagatheredfromathree-monthperiodisinsufficienttoestablishtheconclusiondrawnfromit.Itisquitepossiblethatthethree-monthperiodchosenisidiosyncraticandnotrepresentativeofentireyear’ssales.Ifso,reducingthesizeoftheclothingdepartmentsandenlargingthehome-furnishingsdepartmentsmaybeacostlymistake.Inthesecondplace,thed ollectedduringthethreemonthperiodmaybebiased.Thefactthatthedatareflectssalesinlocalstoresiscauseforconcern.Itispossiblethatthesalestrendinaparticularlocationisnotrepresentativeofsalesinotherregions.Forexample,salesofclothinginFloridaduringthewintermonthsarelikelytobequitedifferentfromsalesofclothinginAlaskaduringthesameperiod.Inconclusion,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Amoreconvincingargumentmustprovideadditionalsalesdata,collectedatdifferentperiodsoftheyearandatdifferentlocations,thatsubstantiatesthetrendinquestion.IT投资月原By作文是公司要尽可能，就要提高员工的efficiency。然后说最先进的informationITproductivityprofit变多FromGMATAWA题库-Thefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheinformationtechnologydepartmentofamajoradvertisingfirm:“Themoreefficientafirm’semployeesare,themoreprofitablethatfirmwillbe.Improvementsinafirm’sinformationtechnologyhardwareandsoftwareareaprovenwaytoincreasetheefficiencyofemployeeswhodothemajorityoftheirworkoncomputers.Therefore,ifourfirminvestsinthemostpowerfulandadvancedinformationtechnologyavailable,employeeproductivitywillbeized.Thisstrategyensuresthateverydollarspentonenhancedinformationtechnologywillhelptoincreaseourfirm’sprofitmargins.”考思无根据假设：Thereisnoeviencegiventosubstantiatetheclaimthatimprovementsoninformationtechnologycouldleadtohigheremployeeproductivity.(1)东西太新员工不适应反而降低效率(2)投入大于产出，最终收益还是降低因果关系：投入增加，边际收益增加？Asamatteroffact,thefactthattheincreaseincompany’sprofitsmightbeexplainedbyavarityoffactors.比如员工福利、生产成本、公司房提高员工效月原始原ThefollowingappearedinamemototheSaludatowncouncilfromthetown’s“Researchindicatesthatthosewhoexerciseregularlyarehospitalizedlessthanhalfasoftenasthosewhodon’texercise.Byprovidingawell-equippedgymforSaluda’smunicipalemployees,weshouldbeabletoreducethecostofourgrouphealthinsurancecoveragebyapproximay50%andtherebyachieveabalancedtownbudget.”考思不足：research的样本容量、统计标志都没有说明，无法保证研究结果具有一定的参无根据假设：不一定提供了gym员工就会去锻炼，所以无法确康水平会提升cost(2)考范InthismemoSaluda’sbusiness mendsthatthetownprovideagymforemployeesasameansofbalancingthetown’sbudget.Themanagerreasonsthatsincestudiesshowthatpeoplewhoexerciseregularlyarehospitalizedlessthanhalfasoftenthanthosewhodon’texercise,Saludacouldsaveapproximay50%onthecostofitsgrouphealthinsurancecoveragebyprovidingitsemployeeswithawell-equippedgym.Thesavingsoninsurancewouldbalancethetown’sbudget.Themanager’sargumentisunconvincingbecauseitrestsonseveralunsupportedanddubiousassumptions.,themanagerassumesthatSaluda’semployeeswillexerciseregularlyifawell-equippedfacilityisprovidedforthem.Thisassumptionisquestionablesincethemerefactthatagymismadeavailableforemployeeuseisnoguaranteethattheywillavailthemselvesofitatall,letaloneonaregularbasis.Second,themanagerassumesthatSaluda’semployeesdonotexerciseregularly.Onceagain,manageroffersnosupportforthiscrucialassumption.Obviously,ifallofSauda’salreadyengageindailyexercise,thehospitalizationratewillbeunaffectedbyequipanexercisefacilityandnosavingswillberealizedonthegrouphealthinsurance.Third,themanagerassumesthatthereisadirectrelationbetweenthehospitalizationrateforemployeesandthecostoftheirgrouphealthinsurancesuchthatareductioninthehospitalizationratewillresultinacorrespondingreductioninthecostofinsurance.Whilethismayturnouttobetrue,themanagerhasfailedtoofferanyevidenceforthi.Finally,themanagerassumesthatthecostofbuildingawell-equippedexercisefacilitywillnotnegatethesavingsrealizedonthegrouphealthinsurance.Untilevidencehasbeenprovidedtoshowthatthisisnotthecase,themanager’splanisunacceptable.Inconclusion,thebusinessmanager’sproposaltoprovideanexercisefacilityasameansofbalancingSaluda’sbudgetisnotconvincing.Tostrengthentheargument,evidencewouldhavetobeprovidedforeachoftheassumptionslistedinthepreviousysis.Citrus月原始原Thefollowingistakenfromaneditorialinalocalnewsp“Overthepastdecade,thepriceperpoundofcitrusfruithasincreasedsubstantially.Elevenyearsago,Megamartcharged5centsapieceforlemons,buttodayitcommonlychargesover30centsapiece.Inonlyoneoftheselasevenyearswastheweatherunfavorablefrowingcitruscrops.Evidently,then,citrusgrowershavebeenresponsiblefortheexcessiveincreaseinthepriceofcitrusfruit,andstrictpricingregulationsareneededtopreventthemfromcontinuingtoinflateprices.”考思成本上升，或者通货膨胀等因素。Monetaryinflation,increaseddistributionandlaborcostsoralterationsinsupplyanddemandconditionsthegrowersdesireforincreasedprofits.无根据假设：天气好，所以果树的产量一定高。Theeditorialrestsonaunconvincingassumptionthatthebadweatherinonlyoneoftheselasevenyearsleadstotheyield’sreductionincitrusfruit.考范Inthiseditorialtheauthorarguesfortheimpositionofstrictpricingregulationsinordertopreventcitrusgrowersfromcontinuedinflationofpricesofcitrusfruit.Theneedforsuchregulationissupportedbytheauthor’scontentionthatcitrusgrowershavebeenunnecessarilyraisingpricesofcitrusfruitinthepast.TheevidenceforthisallegationisthefactthatthepriceoflemonsatMegamarthasincreasedfrom15centsperpoundtooveradollarapoundduringthepreceding11-yearperiod.Theauthormaintainsthatthisincreaseisunjustifiablebecauseweatherconditionshavebeenfavorabletocitrusproductioninallbutoneofthoseyears.Thisargumentisflawedforseveralreasons.andforemost,theauthorassumesthattheonlyfactorthatinfluencesthepriceofcitrusfruitistheweather.Otherfactorssuchasmonetaryinflation,increaseddistributionandlaborcosts,oralterationsinsupplyanddemandconditionsarecompleyignoredaspossiblesourcesfortheincrease.Thechargethatcitrusgrowershaveunnecessarilyraisedpricescanbesustainedonlyiftheseandotherpossiblefactorscanbecompleyruledoutascontributingtothepriceincreases.Sincetheauthorfailstoaddressthesefactors,the mendationcallingforstrictpricingregulationscanbedismissedoutofhandasfrivolous.Second,theauthorassumesthattheonlywaytocombatincreasedpricesisthroughernmentintervention.Inafreeenterprisesystemmanyothermeansofaffectingthepricingofgoodsareavailable.Forexample,boycottingaproductandtherebyinfluencingsupplyanddemandconditionsofthecommodityisaneffectivemeansofinfluencingthepriceoftheproduct.Inafreemarketeconomythecallforpriceregulationbytheernmentshouldoccuronlywhenallothermeanstorectifytheproblemhavebeenexhausted.Inconclusion,theauthor’sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumentitwouldbenecessarytoshowthattheonlyfactorinfluencingthepriceincreasesisthegrowers’desireforincreasedprofits.PalmGrove买月原By在一个地方的commercialrealestateprice（PalmGory好像是增长的快很多。PGretailspacesprices一定贵好多，所以前一个地方的spacesprice是被高估的。基于financialinterest，应该买PG的retailspace。FromGMATAWA题库-Thefollowingappearedinaletterfromapart-ownerofasmallretailclothingchaintoherbusinesspartner:“CommercialrealestatepriceshavebeenrisingsteadilyintheSandidaHeightsneighborhoodforseveralyears,whilethepricesintheadjacentneighborhoodofPalmGrovehaveremainedthesame.Itseemsobvious,then,thataretailspaceinSandidaHeightsmustnowbemuoreexpensivethanasimilarspaceinPalmGrove,whichwasnotthecaseseveralyearsago.So,itappearsthatretailspacesinSandidaHeightsarenowoverpricedrelativetothoseinPalmGrove.Therefore,itwouldbeinourfinancialinteresttopurchasearetailspaceinPalmGroveratherthaninSandidaHeights.考思因果关系-忽略他因：Toincreasefinancialinterest不一定是因为低价买到了一块地，还要因果关系-错误因果：TheclaimthatretailspacesinSandideHeightsarenowoverpriceddoesnotnecessarilyprovesthatpurchasingaretailspaceinPalmGrovecanbringaboutfinancialinterest.S的门店价格高不能说明在PSfinancialbenifitsSSfinancialinterest，还应该了解S地门店价格的趋势，并比较两地的商业利益。无根据假设：TherealestatepriceinSadidaHeightshaverisenwhilethenpricesinPalmGrovehaveremainedunchangedisnotsufficienttoreachtheconclusionthataretailspaceinSandidaHeightsisnotmu oreexpensivethanasimilarinPlamGrove.S的原地PSP的便宜。脑洞大开假设（谨慎参考）：P买地，也许不是个好主意，其他竞P的竞争压力大。学校减少开月原始原Thefollowingappearedinaneditorialfromanewsprservingthetownof“TheSaludaConsolidatedHighSchooloffersover200differentcoursesfromwhichitsstudentscanchoose.Amuchsmallerprivateschooldownthestreetoffersabasiccurriculumofonly80differentcourses,butitconsistentlysendsahigherproportionofitsgraduatingseniorsontocollegethanConsolidateddoes.Byeliminatingatleasthalfofthecoursesofferedthereandfocusingonabasiccurriculum,wecouldimprovestudentperformanceatConsolidatedandalsosavemanytaxdollars.”考思topstudents.因果关系：私立学校更好不一定因为开课少，也许是老师有工资，老师更负责任等习积极性降低，特殊才能无法施展，实践能力得不到培养等效果。S学校更注重技能的培养，许多学生starttheirowncareerratherthangotocollege考范Inthiseditorialtheauthor mendsthatSaluda’sConsolidatedHighSchooleliminatehalfofits200coursesandfocusprimarilyonbasiccurriculuminordertoimprovestudentperformanceandsavetaxrevenues.Theauthor’s mendationisproblematicforseveralreasons.Tobeginwith,theauthorassumesthattheonlyrelevantdifferencebetweenConsolidatedandtheprivateschoolisthenumberofcoursesofferedbyeach.However,otherrelevantdifferencesbetweentheschoolsmightaccountforthedifferenceintheproportionoftheirgraduateswhogoontocollege.Forexample,theprivateschool’sstudentsmightbeselectedfromapoolofgiftedorexceptionalstudents,ormighthavetomeetrigorousadmissionstandardswhereasConsolidated’sstudentsmightbedrawnfromthecommunityatlargewithlittleornoqualificationforadmission.Next,theauthorassumesthattheproportionofstudentswhogoontocollegeisanoverallmeasureofstudentperformance.Whilethisisatemptingassumption,itstruthisbynomeansobvious.Ifstudentexcellenceisnarrowlydefinedintermsofthestudent’sabilitytogainaccesstocollege,thisassumptionissomewhatreasonable.However,givenabroaderconceptionofstudentexcellencethattakesintoaccountstudent’sabilitytolearnandapplytheirknowledgetonewsituations,itisnotobviousthatcollegeadmissionisreliableindicatorofperformance.Forexample,studentsinnon-academicdisciplinescouldconceivablyperformathighlevelswithinthesedisciplinesbutneverthelessbeunabletomeetcollegeadmissionstandards.Finally,theauthorassumesthatsavingsintaxrevenueswillresultfromthereducedcostsoffundingthepaired-downcurriculum.Thisisnotnecessarilytrue.Forexample,itcouldturnoutthatbothprogramsservethesa mberofstudentsandrequirethesa mberofclassroomsandteacher.Inconclusion,theauthorhasnotmadeaconvincingcaseforthe mendationtoeliminatecoursesatConsolidatedandfocusonabasiccurriculum.TostrengthentheconclusiontheauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatConsolidatedandtheprivateschoolweresufficientlysimilartowarranttheogybetweenthem.Moreover,therelationshipbetweenstudentperformanceandcollegeadmissionandthemechanismwherebysavingsintaxrevenueswouldbe plishedwouldhavetobeclarified.学校医月原始原Thefollowingappearedinanarticleinthehealthsectionofanewsp“Thereisacommonmisconceptionthatuniversityhospitalsarebetterthancommunityorprivatehospitals.Thisnotionisunfounded,however:theuniversityhospitalsinourregionemploy15percentfewerdoctors,havea20percentlowersuccessrateintreatingpatients,makefarlessoverallprofit,andpaytheirmedicalstaffconsiderablylessthandoprivatehospitals.Furthermore,manydoctorsatuniversityhospitalstypicallydividetheirtimeamongteaching,conductingresearch,andtreatingpatients.Fromthisitseemsclearthatthequalityofcareatuniversityhospitalsislowerthanthatatotherkindsofhospitals.”考思样本问题（以偏概全）：region的例子就推出所有的大学医院都不好，这种generalization是绝对不严谨的；Itisentirelypossiblethat这个地方的只是一个特例，很有可lowsuccessrate并不代表lowqualityofcare（如同1中提及的所接纳的病情上这一successrate会低）考范Inthisargumenttheauthorconcludesthatuniversityhospitalsprovidenobettercarethanprivateorcommunityhospitals.Theauthorbasesthisconclusiononthefollowingclaimsaboutuniversityhospitals:theonesinthisregionemploy15percentfewerdoctors;theyhavea20percentlowersuccessrateintreatingpatients;theypaytheirstaffslessmoney;theymakelessprofitthancommunityhospitals;andtheyutilizedoctorswhodividetheirtimebetweenteaching,researchandtreatingpatients.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralreasons.Themostegregiousreasoningerrorintheargumentistheauthor’suseofevidencepertaininguniversityhospitalsinthisregionasthebasisforageneralizationaboutalluniversityTheunderlyingassumptionoperativeinthisinferenceisthatuniversityhospitalsinthisregionarerepresentativeofalluniversityhospitals.NoevidenceisofferedtosupportthisgratuitousSecondly,theonlyrelevantreasonofferedinsupportoftheclaimthatthequalityofcareislowerinuniversityhospitalsthanitisatotherhospitalsisthefactthatuniversityhospitalshavealowersuccessrateintreatingpatients.Butthisreasonisnotsufficienttoreachtheconclusioninquestionunlessitcanbeshownthatthepatientstreatedinbothtypesofhospitalssufferedfromsimilartypesofmaladies.Forexample,ifuniversityhospitalsroutinelytreatpatientssufferingfromrarediseaseswhereasotherhospitalstreatonlythosewhosufferfromknowndiseasesandillnesses,thedifferenceinsuccessrateswouldnotbeindicativeofthequalityofcarereceived.Finally,theauthorassumesthatthenumberofdoctorsahospitalemploys,itssuccessrateintreatingpatients,theamountitpaysitsstaff,andtheprofitsitearnsareallreliableindicatorsofthequalityofcareitdelivers.Noevidenceisofferedtosupportthisassumptionnorisitobviousthatanyofthesefactorsislinkedtothequalityofcaredeliveredtopatients.Moreover,thefactthatdoctorsinuniversityhospitalsdividetheirtimeamongmanytasksfailstodemonstratethattheydoapoorerjoboftreatingpatientsthandoctorsatotherkindsofhospitals.Infact,itishighlylikelythattheydoabetterjobbecausetheyaremoreknowledgeablethanotherdoctorsduetotheirteachingandresearch.Inconclusion,theauthor’sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetodemonstratethatuniversityhospitalsinthisregionarerepresentativeofalluniversityhospitals,aswellasestablishingacausallinkbetweenthevariousfactorscitedandthequalityofcaredeliveredtopatients.摩托公radio月原ByMetromotorcycles公司的marketresearcher认为socialnetworkingwebsites对于他们的不管用，某个社交的user显示他们都不会因为看到而去的。REsearcher evisionradioads更管用，去年因为使用了这两个，销售额增加了15%。所有公司应 evisionradioV1.一个摩托车公司不打算继续在onl