2021年全球电动汽车展望英文本

GlobalEVOutlook2021leaELECTRICVEHICLESINITIATIVEAcceleratingambitionsdespitethepandemicleaELECTRICVEHICLESINITIATIVE*CLEANENERGY\JfMINISTERIALActelerunxflieTrAimtiontoCleanEnerivTKtvialQt<es

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits30membercountries,8associationcountriesandbeyond.Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineatwww.iea.orq/t&c/Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.Allrightsreserved.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:/r/IEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesIEAassociationcountries:BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandleaAbstractTheGlobalEVOutlookIsanannualpublicationthatidentifiesanddiscussesrecentdevelopmentsinelectricmobilityacrosstheglobe.ItisdevelopedwiththesupportofthemembersoftheElectricVehiclesInitiative(EVI).Combininghistoricalanalysiswithprojectionsto2030,thereportexamineskeyareasofinterestsuchaselectricvehicle(EV)andcharginginfrastructuredeployment,energyuse,CO2emissionsandbatterydemand.Thereportincludespolicyrecommendationsthatincorporatelearningfromfrontrunnermarketstoinformpolicymakersandstakeholdersthatconsiderpolicyframeworksandmarketsystemsforelectricvehicleadoption.Thiseditionalsofeaturesanupdateoftheelectricheavy-dutyvehiclemodelscomingontocommercialmarketsandslottedforreleaseinthecomingfewyears,andonthestatusofdevelopmentofmegachargers.ItcomparestheelectricvehiclesupplyequipmentperEVwiththerecommendedAFIDtargets.ItalsoanalysestheimpactofEVuptakeongovernments'revenuefromfueltaxation.Finally,itmakesavailableforthefirsttimetwoonlinetools:theGlobalEVDataExplorerandGlobalEVPolicyExplorer,whichallowuserstointeractivelyexploreEVstatisticsandprojections,andpolicymeasuresworldwide.Abstractv<31TableofcontentsTOC\o"1-5"\h\z\o"CurrentDocument"Executivesummary 4\o"CurrentDocument"Introduction 8\o"CurrentDocument"Overview 9\o"CurrentDocument"ElectricVehiclesInitiative 10\o"CurrentDocument"ElectricVehiclesInitiativeaimstoaccelerateEVdeployment 11ElectricVehiclesInitiativecampaigns 12EV30@30andtheDrivetoZerocampaignssupportEVdeployment13\o"CurrentDocument"ImplementingactionsoftheEV30@30campaign 14\o"CurrentDocument"Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectricvehiclemarkets 15\o"CurrentDocument"Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectriclight-dutyvehicles 16\o"CurrentDocument"Morethan10millionelectriccarswereontheworld'sroadsin2020withbatteryelectricmodelsdrivingtheexpansion 17Electriccarregistrationsincreasedinmajormarketsin2020despitetheCovidpandemic 18\o"CurrentDocument"Electriccarshadarecordyearin2020,withEuropeovertakingChinaasthebiggestmarket 19ConsumerspendingonEVscontinuestorise,whilegovernmentsupportstabilises 21\o"CurrentDocument"Moreelectriccarmodelsareavailable;rangesstarttoplateau 22AutomakersenticecustomerswithawidemenuincludingelectricSUVmodels 23\o"CurrentDocument"ChinaleadsinelectricLCVsaleswithEuropenotfarbehindandKoreaenteringthemarket 24\o"CurrentDocument"18ofthe20largestOEMshavecommittedtoincreasetheofferandsalesofEVs 25\o"CurrentDocument"Manufacturers,electrificationtargetsalignwiththeIEA*sSustainableDevelopmentScenario 26\o"CurrentDocument"Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectricheavy-dutyvehicles 27

\o"CurrentDocument"Electricbusandtruckregistrationsexpandedinmajormarketsin2020 28\o"CurrentDocument"Electricheavy-dutyvehiclemodelsarebroadening 29\o"CurrentDocument"Typesofzero-emissionHDVsexpand,anddrivingrangelengthens 30\o"CurrentDocument"Privatesectorcommitmentandotherelectrificationtrends 31\o"CurrentDocument"Privatesectordemandforzero-emissioncommercialvehiclesamplifiesmarketsignalsforOEMstodevelopEVs 32\o"CurrentDocument"ClimateGroup*sEV100Initiativeupdateonprivatesectorcommitments 33\o"CurrentDocument"BatterydemandlaggedEVsalesin2020;Europeseeshighestriseindemand 34\o"CurrentDocument"Pandemicspreadspopularityofelectricmicromobility 35\o"CurrentDocument"Koreatakesaleadindeployingfuelcellelectricvehicles 36\o"CurrentDocument"Deploymentofelectricvehicle-charginginfrastructure 37\o"CurrentDocument"Publiclyaccessibleslowandfastchargersincreasedto1.3millionin2020 38\o"CurrentDocument"Installationofpubliclyaccessiblechargersexpandedsevenfoldinthelastfiveyears;Covid-19mutedthepacein2020whileChinastillleads 39MostcountriesinEuropedidnotachieve2020AFIDtargetsforpubliclyaccessiblechargers 40Planningneedstostartnowformegachargerstoenablelong-distancetrucking 41\o"CurrentDocument"Policiestopromoteelectricvehicledeployment 42\o"CurrentDocument"Areweenteringtheeraoftheelectricvehicle? 43\o"CurrentDocument"Morethan20countrieshaveelectrificationtargetsorICEbansforcars,and8countriesplustheEuropeanUnionhaveannouncednet-zeropledges 47\o"CurrentDocument"Policiesaffectingtheelectriclight-dutyvehiclemarket 48三|2三|2\o"CurrentDocument"Policiesbuoyedelectriccarsalesin2020despitetheCovid-19pandemic 49SubsidieshavebeeninstrumentalinboostingEVsalesduringthe\o"CurrentDocument"Currentzero-emissionlight-dutyvehiclepoliciesandincentivesinselectedcountries 52\o"CurrentDocument"Strongpoliciesunderpinmajorelectriccarmarkets 53China'smajorcitieshaveimplementedabroadarrayofEVpromotionGovernmentsroll-outplansforinterconnectedcharginginfrastructurenetworks 59\o"CurrentDocument"MarketsforEVbatterysupplyheatup 61\o"CurrentDocument"Policiesaffectingtheelectricheavy-dutyvehiclemarket 63\o"CurrentDocument"Currentzero-emissionheavy-dutyvehiclepoliciesandincentivesinselectedcountries 64\o"CurrentDocument"Publicpoliciesprepareforexpectedsurgeinelectricheavy-dutyvehicles 65\o"CurrentDocument"GovernmentinvestmentincharginginfrastructureforHDVsisslowlypickingup 68\o"CurrentDocument"LinkstosourcesforfiguresandtablesinChapter2 69\o"CurrentDocument"Prospectsforelectricvehicledeployment 71\o"CurrentDocument"Outlookforelectricmobility 72\o"CurrentDocument"Passengercarsdrivethegrowthofelectricvehiclesto2030 74\o"CurrentDocument"EVspenetrateallroadtransportmodesintheshortterm 75\o"CurrentDocument"EuropeandChinacontinuetoleadglobalEVmarkets 77\o"CurrentDocument"Electrificationofroadtransportaccelerates,butatvaryingspeeds 78\o"CurrentDocument"Charginginfrastructure 81\o"CurrentDocument"Privatechargingforelectriclight-dutyvehicleswilldominateinnumbersandcapacity 82\o"CurrentDocument"ChargingpointsforLDVsexpandtoover200millionandsupply550TWhintheSustainableDevelopmentScenario 83Implicationsofelectricmobility 85Annualbatterydemandgrowstwenty-foldintheSustainableDevelopmentScenario 86\o"CurrentDocument"Electricvehiclesdiversifythetransportenergymix 87\o"CurrentDocument"EVsaccountforaminorshareofglobalelectricityconsumptionin2030 88\o"CurrentDocument"NetreductionofGHGemissionsfromEVsincreasesovertime 89GHGemissionbenefitsfromEVsmultiplyaselectricitygenerationdecarbonises 90\o"CurrentDocument"MeasuresareneededtobalancereducedrevenuefromfueltaxesassociatedwithEVuptake 91\o"CurrentDocument"Annex 92\o"CurrentDocument"Abbreviationsandacronyms 93\o"CurrentDocument"Unitsofmeasure 94\o"CurrentDocument"Acknowledgements 95ExecutivesummaryStrongmomentuminelectricvehiclemarketsdespitethepandemicTherewere10millionelectriccarsontheworld'sroadsattheendof2020,followingadecadeofrapidgrowth.Electriccarregistrationsincreasedby41%in2020,despitethepandemic-relatedworldwidedownturnincarsalesinwhichglobalcarsalesdropped16%.Around3millionelectriccarsweresoldglobally(a4.6%salesshare),andEuropeovertookthePeople'sRepublicofChina("China")astheworld'slargestelectricvehicle(EV)marketforthefirsttime.Electricbusandtruckregistrationsalsoexpandedinmajormarkets,reachingglobalstocksof600000and31000respectively.TheresilienceofEVsalesinthefaceofthepandemicrestsonthreemainpillars:Supportiveregulatoryframeworks:evenbeforethepandemicmanycountrieswerestrengtheningkeypoliciessuchasCO2emissionsstandardsandzero-emissionvehicle(ZEV)mandates.Bytheendof2020,morethan20countrieshadannouncedbansonthesalesofconventionalcarsormandatedallnewsalestobeZEVs.AdditionalincentivestosafeguardEVsalesfromtheeconomicdownturn:someEuropeancountriesincreasedtheirpurchaseincentivesandChinadelayedthephase-outofitssubsidyscheme.ThenumberofEVmodelsexpandedandbatterycostcontinuedtofall.Vehiclemanufacturersannouncedincreasinglyambitiouselectrificationplans.Outoftheworld'stop20vehiclemanufacturers,whichrepresentedaround90%ofnewcarregistrationsin2020,18havestatedplanstowidentheirportfolioofmodelsandtorapidlyscaleuptheproductionoflight-dutyelectricvehicles.Themodelavailabilityofelectricheavy-dutyvehiclesisalsobroadening,withfourmajortruckmanufacturersindicatinganall-electricfuture.ConsumerspendingonelectriccarpurchasesincreasedtoUSD120billionin2020.Inparallel,governmentsacrosstheworldspentUSD14billiontosupportelectriccarsales,up25%from2019,mostlyfromstrongerincentivesinEurope.Nonetheless,theshareofgovernmentincentivesintotalspendingonelectriccarshasdecreasedoverthepastfiveyears,suggestingthatEVsarebecomingincreasinglyattractivetoconsumers.Thenear-termoutlookforEVsalesisbright.Inthefirst-quarterof2021,globalelectriccarsalesrosebyaround140%comparedtothesameperiodin2020,drivenbysalesinChinaofaround500000vehiclesandinEuropeofaround450000.USsalesmorethandoubledrelativetothefirst-quarterof2020,albeitfromamuchlowerbase.EVsaresettobeamorecommonsightontheworld'sroadsinthe2020sExistingpoliciesaroundtheworldsuggesthealthygrowthoverthisdecade:intheStatedPoliciesScenario,theEVstockacrossallmodes(excepttwo/three-wheelers)reaches145millionin2030,accountingfor7%oftheroadvehiclefleet.

EVmarketscouldbesignificantlylargerifgovernmentsaccelerateeffortstoreachclimategoals.IntheSustainableDevelopmentScenario,theglobalEVfleetreaches230millionvehiclesin2030(excludingtwo/three-wheelers),astockshareof12%.TheexpandingfleetofEVswillcontinuetoreducewell-to-wheelGHGemissions,withthenetsavingsrelativetointernalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesincreasingovertimedependingonthepaceatwhichelectricitygenerationdecarbonises.In2030,intheStatedPoliciesScenario,theglobalEVfleetreducesGHGemissionsbymorethanone-thirdcomparedtoanequivalentICEvehiclefleet;intheSustainableDevelopmentScenario,thelevelrisestotwo-thirds.PoliciesneedtoleveragemomentumtofurtheraccelerateelectrificationEvenwiththerecentsuccessofEVdeployment,reachingatrajectoryconsistentwithclimategoalsisaformidablechallenge.Itrequiresstrongerambitionandactionfromallcountries.AdvancesinbatterytechnologyandmassmanufacturingwillcontinuetodrivedownthecostofEVs.Butthe2020swillneedtoseemorethanjustthemassadoptionofelectriclight-dutyvehiclestomeetclimategoals.Governmentswillalsoneedtoputinplacepoliciestopromotetheroll-outofzeroemissionvehiclesinthemedium-andheavy-dutyvehiclesegmentsandthecorrepondingfast-charginginfrastructure.Intheshortterm,countriescancontinuetoimplement,enforceandtightenmeasuressuchasCO2andfueleconomystandardsandEVmandates.Taxinggasolineanddieselatratesthatreflecttheirenvironmentalandhumanhealthimpactscanprovidegovernmentrevenue,reducetheirnegativeimpactsandhastenthetransitiontoelectricmobility.DifferentiatedtaxationofvehiclesandfuelsthatreflecttheirenvironmentalperformancecanfurtheralignmarketswiththeclimatebenefitsofEVs.Inorderforelectricvehiclestoattaintheirfullpotentialtomitigatecarbonemissions,criticalprogressisrequiredtodecarboniseelectricitygeneration,tointegrateelectricvehiclesinpowersystems,tobuildcharginginfrastructureandtoadvancesustainablebatterymanufacturingandtheirrecycling.ElectricvehiclesacrossalltransportmodeshadsteadygrowthoverthelastdecadeGlobalelectricvehiclestockbyregion(left)andtransportmode(right),2010-20202o642642201020112012201320142015201620172018201920206620102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Region:Transportmode:□China□PLDVs□Europe□LCVs□UnitedStates□Buses■Other□TrucksIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:PLDVs=passengerlight-dutyvehicles,LCVs=light-commercialvehicles.Electricvehiclesincludebatteryelectricandplug-inhybridelectricvehicles.EuropeincludesEU27,Norway,Iceland,SwitzerlandandUnitedKingdom.OtherincludesAustralia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,India,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,NewZealand,SouthAfricaandThailand.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedoncountrysubmissions,complementedbyACEA(2021);CAAM(2021);EAFO(2021);EVVolumes(2021)andMarklines(2021).IntroductionOverviewVehiclemanufacturersandpolicymakersareboostingtheirattentionandactionsrelatedtoelectricvehicles(EVs).EVtechnologiessuchasfullbatteryelectricandplug-inhybridelectricmodelsareattactiveoptionstohelpreachenvironmental,societalandhealthobjectives.Inadditiontobeingtw。-tofour-timesmoreefficientthanconventionalinternalcombustionenainemodels.EVscanreducerelianceonoilbasedfuelsand,ifrunningonlow-carbonpower,candeliversignificantreductionsingreenhousegasemissions.Plus,withzerotailpipeemissions,EVsarewellsuitedtohelpsolveairpollutionissues.Moreover,EVsaredrivingadvancesinbatterytechnology-akeyissueforindustrialcompetitivenessinthetransitiontocleanenergy.EVfleetsareexpandingatafastpaceinseveraloftheworld'slargestvehiclemarkets.ThecostsofbatteriesandEVsaredropping.Charginginfrastructureisexpanding.Thisprogresspromoteselectrificationoftransportmodessuchastwo/three-wheelers,lightdutyvehicles(LDVs)(carsandvans),taxisandsharedvehicles,busesandheavy-dutyvehicleswithshortrangerequirementssuchasurbandeliveries.ManufacturersarecontinuingtoexpandthenumberofEVmodelsavailabletocustomers.Effectivepoliciesstillneededtoaddressupfrontinvestmentcosts,promoteEVcharginginfrastructureandensureasmoothintegrationofchargingdemandinpowersystems.Withfoundationsbeinglaid

forwidespreadadoptionoftvsinseverallargeeconomies,therearestrongprospectsthatthe2020swillbethedecadeinwhichelectricmobilitysignificantlyexpands.TheGlobalEVOutlook2021-theflagshipannualpublicationoftheElectricVehiclesInitiative-analysestheworldwidestatusofelectricmobility.Itconsidersthefactorsthathaveinfluencedrecentdevelopments,technologicalprospectsandtheoutlookforEVdeploymentintheperiodto2030.Theanalysisispresentedinthreechapters:discussestrendsinelectricmobilitywithhistoricaldataonEVregistrationsandstock,andavailabilityofcharginginfrastructuretotheendof2020.Itexploresthemainfactorsdrivingelectrificationofroadtransport,includingroll-outplansfromtheprivatesectorandotherdevelopmentstoAvidesanoverviewofthecurrentpolicyframeworkrelevanttobothlight-dutyandheavy-dutyEVstoApril2021.IthighlightsmeasuresundertakenbygovernmentstoshieldtheEVmarketfromtheimpactoftheCovid-19panademic.presentstheoutlookforEVsandchargersto2030.Itassessestheirimpactsonenergyuse,greenhousegasemissions,batteryproductionvolumesandrevenuefromtaxes.ElectricVehiclesInitiativeElectricVehiclesInitiativeaimstoaccelerateEVdeploymentTheElectricVehiclesInitiative(EVI)isamulti-governmentalpolicyforumestablishedin2010undertheCleanEnergyMinisterial(CEM).RecognisingtheopportunitiesofferedbyEVs,theEVIisdedicatedtoacceleratingtheadoptionofEVsworldwide.Todoso,itstrivestobetterunderstandthepolicychallengesrelatedtoelectricmobility,helpgovernmentsaddressthemandtoserveasaplatformforknowledgesharing.TheEVIfacilitatesexchangesbetweengovernmentpolicymakersthatarecommittedtosupportingEVdevelopmentandavarietyofpartners,bringingthemtogethertwiceayear.Itsmultilateralnature,opennesstovariousstakeholdersandengagementatdifferentlevelsofgovernance(fromcountrytocity-level)offerfruitfulopportunitiestoexchangeinformationandtolearnfromexperiencesdevelopedbyarangeofactorsinthetransitiontoelectricmobility.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)servesastheco-ordinatortosupporttheEVImembergovernmentsinthisactivity.GovernmentsthathavebeenactiveintheEVIinthe2020-21periodincludeCanada,Chile,People'sRepublicofChina(hereafter"China"),Finland,France,Germany,India,Japan,Netherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,SwedenandUnitedKingdom.CanadaandChinaco-leadtheinitiative.GreeceandGhanaareobservers.TheEVIalsohelpstoraisetheambitionlevelsforelectricmobitlityworldwidethroughthelinkedCEMcampaignsofEV30@30andGlobalCommercialVehicleDrivetoZeroCampaign,eachendorsedbydifferentmembers.ELECTRICVEHICLESINITIATIVEANINITIATIVEOFTHECLEANENERGYMINISTERIALEVIco-leadEVIco-leadElectricVehiclesInitiativecampaignsEV30@30andtheDrivetoZerocampaignssupFEV30@30CampaignTheEV30@30CampaianwaslaunchedattheCEMmeetingin2017tospurthedeploymentofEVs.ItsetsacollectiveaspirationalgoalforEVs(excludingtwo/three-wheelers)toreach30%salesshareby2030acrossallsignatorycountries.ThisisthebenchmarkagainstwhichprogressistobemeasuredfortheEVImembers.Fourteencountriesendorsedthecampaign:Canada;Chile;China;Finland;France;Germany;India;Japan;Mexico;Netherlands;Norway;Portugal;SwedenandUnitedKingdom.Inaddition,30companiesandorganisationssupportthecampaign,including:C40;FIAFoundation;GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative;HewlettFoundation;NaturalResourcesDefenceCouncil;REN21;SLoCaT;TheClimateGroup;UNEnvironmentProgramme;UNHabitat;WorldResourcesInstitute;ZEVAlliance;ChargePoint;EnergiasdePortugal;EnelX;E.ON;Fortum;Iberdrola;Renault-Nissan-MitsubishiAlliance;SchneiderElectric;TEPCO;VattenfallandChargeUpEurope.CoordinatedbytheIEA,thecampaignincludesfiveimplementingactionstohelpachievethegoalinaccordancewiththeprioritiesandprogrammesofeachEVImembercountry.

)0rtEVdeploymentTheseinclude:SupportandtrackthedeploymentofEVchargers.GalvanisepublicandprivatesectorcommitmentstoincorporateEVsincompanyandsupplierfleets.Scaleuppolicyresearchandinformationexchanges.Supportgovernmentsthroughtrainingandcapacitybuilding.EstablishtheGlobalEVPilotCityProgrammetoachieve100EV-FriendlyCitiesoverfiveyears.DrivetoZeroCampaignTheGlobalCommercialVehicleDrivetoZeroCampaianwaslaunchedatthe2020CEMmeetingandoperatesaspartoftheEVI.Thecampaign,administeredbyCALSTART,acleantransportnonprofitorganisation,aimstobringgovernmentsandleadingindustrystakeholderstogethertocollaborativelydeveloppolicies,programmesandactionsthatcansupporttherapidmanufactureanddeploymentofzero-emissioncommercialvehicles.DrivetoZerocountsmorethan100pledgepartners,includingninenationalgovernments(asofApril2020)andleadingstate,provincialandregionalgovernmentsandagenciesfromacrosstheworld.

ImplementingactionsoftheEV30@30campaigrGEF-7GlobalProgrammeonelectromobilityTheGEF-7GlobalElectricMobilityProgramme,fundedbytheGlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF),willbelaunchedinthesecond-halfof2021tohelplowandmiddle-incomecountriesshifttoelectromobility.Theprogrammeplanstoimplementoneglobalprojectand27countryprojectsoverafive-yearperiod.TheIEAtogetherwiththeUNEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)willleadtheglobalproject,whichaimstoexpandandcomplementtheworkoftheEVI.Undertheglobalproject,theIEAandUNEPalongwithworkinggroups(focusingonLDVs,two/three-wheelers,heavy-dutyvehiclesandsystemintegrationandbatteries)willdevelopknowledgeproductstohelpinformthecountryprojects,withknowledgetransferssupportedbyregionalplatforms(Africa,Asia,EuropeandLatinAmerica/Caribbean).Inaddition,thedatatrackingframeworkusedfortheannualGlobalEVOutlookreportswillbeextendedtothecountriesparticipatingintheprogramme.Inpart,programmeactivitieswillbeimplementedincollaborationwiththeEuropeanCommissionSOLUTIONSPIusProject-aninitiativefundedbytheEuropeanUnionHorizon2020whichisfocusedonEVdeploymentinurbanareas.EVIGlobalEVPilotCityProgrammeTheEVIGlobalEVPilotCitvProarammewaslaunchedinMay2018atthe9thCEMasaninitiativeoftheEV30@30campaign.Itaimstobuildanetworkofatleast100citiesoveraninitialperiodoffiveyearstoworktogetheronthepromotionofelectricmobility.Itscentralpillarsaretofacilitateinformationexchangesbetweencitiesandtoencouragebestpractices,fore