国际金融英文版托马斯A普格尔著Chaerwo

终端能源消耗的关键部门

‘‘Key’’sectorsinfinalenergyconsumption

国贸002彭婧框架图终端能源消耗的关键部门此研究方法给我们的启发·终端能源消耗的关键部门分析简介目的：展现一个可以在不同部门之间建立终端能源消耗相关性的研究方法，并通过其在西班牙经济中的运用找出哪些部门在终端能源消耗中应予以更多的关注。模型：投入产出模型列昂惕夫模型

终端能源消耗的关键部门分析投入产出模型构建①②③终端能源消耗的关键部门分析

④⑤⑥⑦终端能源消耗的关键部门分析⑨⑧

⑨⑩终端能源消耗的关键部门分析·实证分析数据来源国际能源机构（IEA）经济合作与发展组织（OECD）以及其他有研究成果的信息

终端能源消耗的关键部门分析具体分析表2

A农业（1），能源源（2）和非金金属生产产（4）B国内运输输（15），化学学工业（（5），钢铁铁工业、、有色金金属冶炼炼业（3），其他他运输（（16）建筑业业（12）食物业业（8）C纺织和鞋鞋类（9），造纸纸印刷（（10），其他他制造业业（11），贸易易（13），其他他销售服服务（17）金属制制品（6）D交通运输输设备（（7），住宿宿餐饮业业（14）其他非非销售服服务（18）重要说明明偏差此研究方方法给我我们的启启发我国能源源的短缺缺结束句谢谢FundamentalsofBOPAccounting1.double-entrybookkeepingEachtransactionisrecordedtwiceinthebalanceofpayments:onceasacreditandonceasadebit.2.Whycanweusedouble-entrybookkeepingtorecordatransaction?Eachtransaction,involvestwooppositeflowsofequalvalue.Forexample:TheU.S.governmentsells$29millionworthofwheattoRussia,beingpaidwith$29millioningoldbytheRussiangovernment.AU.S.utilitycompanybuys$34millioninnaturalgasfromaCanadianfirmanditpaysbywritingacheckonitsdepositsinNewYorkbank.Braziliansoccerfansspend$6millionastouristsintheU.S.,payingthroughNewYorkbankdeposits.FundamentalsofBOPAccounting3.HowdowerecordtransactionsbetweenresidentsandnonresidentsAsetofaccounts(p14-18)GoodsServicesIncomeUnilateraltransfers(gifts)DirectinvestmentInternationalportfolioinvestmentOfficialinternationalreservesStatisticaldiscrepancyCurrentaccountFinancialaccountBOPFundamentalsofBOPAccountingGoodsincludesgoodssuchasrawmaterialsandmanufacturedgoodsthatarebought,soldorgivenaway(possiblyintheformofaid).Servicesrefertoreceiptsfromtourism,transportation(likethelevythatmustbepaidinEgyptwhenashippassesthroughtheSuezCanal),engineering,businessservicefees(fromlawyersormanagementconsulting,forexample),androyaltiesfrompatentsandcopyrights.FundamentalsofBOPAccountingIncome:Receiptsfromincome-generatingassetssuchasstocks(intheformofdividends)arealsorecordedinthecurrentaccount.Thelastcomponentofthecurrentaccountisunilateraltransfers.Thesearecreditsthataremostlyworker'sremittances,whicharesalariessentbackintothehomecountryofanationalworkingabroad,aswellasforeignaidthatisdirectlyreceived.FundamentalsofBOPAccountingThefinancialaccountiswhereallinternationalcapitaltransfersarerecorded.Itisarecordofallinternationaltransactionsforassetsincludingbonds,treasurybills,bankdeposits,stocks,currency,realestate,etc.Alsoincludedaregovernment-ownedassetssuchasforeignreserves,gold,specialdrawingrights(SDRs)heldwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund,privateassetsheldabroad,anddirectforeigninvestment.Assetsownedbyforeigners,privateandofficial,arealsorecordedinthefinancialaccountFundamentalsofBOPAccounting4.TheprinciplesofbookkeepingAcredit(+)isaflowforwhichthecountryispaid.Adebit(-)isaflowforwhichthecountrymustpay.FundamentalsofBOPAccountingForexample:1.TheU.S.Monetaryauthoritydecidestopurchaseyen-denominatedbankdepositsfromamajorTokyobankandpaybytransferring$15millionofitsNewYorkbankdepositstothisTokyobank.Debit:Officialreserveassets$15millionCredit:foreign(portfolio)investment$15millionFundamentalsofBOPAccounting2.AU.S.utilitycompanybuys$34millioninnaturalgasfromaCanadianfirmanditpaysbywritingacheckonitsdepositsinNewYorkbank.Debit:goods$34millionCredit:portfolioinvestment$34millionFundamentalsofBOPAccounting3.Braziliansoccerfansspend$6millionastouristsintheU.S.,payingthroughNewYorkbankdeposits.Debit:portfolioinvestment$6millionCredit:services$6millionFundamentalsofBOPAccounting4.TheU.S.Treasurypays$25millionininterestonitspastborrowingfromJapaneseinvestors,payingwithchecksonaNewYorkbank.Debit:income$25millionCredit:portfolioinvestment$25millionFundamentalsofBOPAccounting5.TheU.S.governmentgives$8millioninforeignaidtothegovernmentofEgyptintheformofwheat.Debit:unilateraltransfer$8millionCredit:goods$8millionAccountnameDebitCreditbalanceCurrentaccount6714-53Goods34(2)8(5)-26Services6(3)6Income25(4)-25Unilateraltransfer8(5)-8Financialaccount217453Portfolioinvestment6(3)15(1)+34(2)+25(4)=7468Officialreserves15(1)-15Sum88880FundamentalsofBOPAccountingPuttingtheaccountstogether(textbookfigureA.1)Ifweaddupallthecreditsasplusesandallthedebitsasminuses,thenetresultiszero.Butasfarasonlyapartoftheaccountisconcerned,thebalanceneedsnottobezero.Thisisanimportantfact.FundamentalsofBOPAccountingThecurrentaccountandfinancialaccountshouldbalanceeachotherout.Thusacurrentaccountsurplusismatchedbyafinancialaccountdeficitandacurrentaccountdeficitismatchedbyacurrentaccountsurplus.FundamentalsofBOPAccountingAnaccountmayshowasurplusoradeficit.Forexample,atradesurplusimpliesthatacountry'sexportsarehigherthanitsimportsandhencethereisanetflowofmoneyintothecountry.Atradedeficit,ontheotherhand,impliesthatthecountry'simportsexceeditsexportsandhencethereisanetflowofmoneyoutofthecountry.Foracountrytohaveazerobalanceofpayments,acurrentaccountdeficitmustbebalancedbyacapitalaccountsurplus.TheUShavebeenrunninganegativecurrentaccountforalongwhile,whichisfinancedthroughapositivefinancialaccount.Theonlywaytobuymorethanyousellistoborrowmoney.Debits(-)Credits(+)CurrentAccountA.ImportsofGoodsB.ImportsofServicesA.ExportsofGoodsB.ExportsofServicesCurrentAccountA.UnilateraltransfersmadeA.UnilateraltransfersreceivedCaptialAccountA.IncreaseinL-TforeignassetsownedbyhomecountryB.DecreaseinL-ThomecountryassetsownedbyforeigncountryA.DecreaseinL-TforeignassetsownedbyhomecountryB.IncreaseinL-ThomecountryassetsownedbyforeigncountryCaptialAccountA.IncreaseinS-Tforeignassetsownedbyprivateindivid.inhomecountryB.DecreaseinS-ThomecountryassetsownedbyprivateforeignersA.DecreaseinS-Tforeignassetsownedbyprivateindivid.inhomecountryB.IncreaseinS-ThomecountryassetsownedbyprivateforeignersOfficialreserveassetA.IncreaseinS-Tforeignassetsownedbyhomecountrygov’tB.DecreaseinS-Thomecountryassetsownedbyforeigncountrygov’tA.DecreaseinS-Tforeignassetsownedbyhomecountrygov’tB.IncreaseinS-Thomecountryassetsownedbyforeigncountrygov’tFundamentalsofBOPAccountingGDPGDP=C+I+G+X-MGNPGNP=GDP+NFPGDIGDI=GNP+NTFundamentalsofBOPAccountingGrossdomesticproductisthevalueofalldomestically-producedfinalgoodsandservices.GDPisthevalueofalloutputproduced@home.Economistsoftensplitaggregateexpenditureintofourcomponents—consumption(C),investment(I),governmentspending(G),netexports(NX)HencewecanwriteGDP=C+I+G+NXFundamentalsofBOPAccountingTherearethreeequivalentmethodsofestimatingGDPExpenditureapproachTotalexpenditureonallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedIncomeapproachTotalincomereceivedbyallfactorsofproductionOutputapproachSumofvalueaddedateachstageofproductionFundamentalsofBOPAccountingGrossnationalproductisthevalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedbydomesticallyownedfactorsofproduction.GNPisthevalueofalloutputproducedusingdomestically-ownedfactorsofproductionSomeoutputproduced@homeisproducedbyforeigners(thisshouldnotcountinGNP)Someoutputproducedabroadisproducedbydomestically-ownedfactors(thisshouldcountinGNP)HenceGNP=GDP+netfactorincomefromabroadFundamentalsofBOPAccountingHencethedifferencebetweenGDPandGNPisproportionaltoNFPIfacountryisadebtornationNFP<0IfacountryisacreditornationNFP>0Theanalysisofbalanceofpayments1.HowshouldweanalyzethebalanceofpaymentsPartialbalance:surplusordeficit(figureA.1)Merchandisetradebalance（goodsbalance)Goodsandservicesbalance(tradebalance)Goods,servicesandincomebalanceCurrentaccountbalancePrivatefinancialaccountbalanceOverallbalance(officialsettlementbalance)A.CurrentAccount1.GoodsBalance2.ServiceBalance1through2=TradeBalance3.IncomeBalance4.NetTransfersA(1through4)=CurrentAccountBalance__________________________________________________________________________B.CapitalAccount__________________________________________________________________________C.FinancialAccount1.NetForeignDirectInvestment2.NetPortfolioInvestment3.OtherFinancialItemsA+B+C=BasicBalance__________________________________________________________________________D.NetErrorsandOmissionsA+B+C+D=OverallBalance__________________________________________________________________________E.OfficialReservesandRelatedItems__________________________________________________________________________TheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsWhencombined,goodsandservicestogethermakeupacountry'sbalanceoftrade(BOT).TheBOTistypicallythebiggestbulkofacountry'sbalanceofpaymentsasitmakesuptotalimportsandexports.Ifacountryhasabalanceoftradedeficit,itimportsmorethanitexports,andifithasabalanceoftradesurplus,itexportsmorethanitimports.TheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsWhatisatradedeficit?Acountryrunsatradedeficitwhenitimportsmorethanitexports,i.e.NX<0Isthetradedeficitsynonymouswithacurrentaccountdeficit?NoThecurrentaccountdeficitmeasuresacountry’stotal(current-period)deficittotheworld?TheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsWhat’smissinginthetradedeficit?InterestpaymentsonyouraccumulateddebtAlternativelyifyouarenetcreditoryoureceiveinterestonyouraccumulatedassetsTheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsThemacromeaningofthecurrentaccountbalanceAcountry’scurrentaccountbalanceequalsthecountry’snetforeigninvestment.Theonlythingsbeingexchangedbetweennationsaregoods,services,income,gifts,andfinancialassets.Ifallcreditsmustequalalldebits,thenthebalanceongoods,services,incomeandgifts—thatisthecurrentaccountsurplusmustequalnetforeigninvestment(If),thenetaccumulationofforeignassetsminusforeignliabilities.Theanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsacountry’scurrentaccountbalanceequalsnationalsavingthatisnotinvestedathome.(CA=S-I)acountry’scurrentaccountbalanceequalsthedifferencebetweenitsdomesticproductionofgoodsanditstotalexpenditureongoodsandservices.(CA=Y-E)TheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsCurrentaccountbalanceCA=Netforeigninvestment=thedifferencebetweennationalsavinganddomesticinvestment=thedifferencebetweendomesticproductandnationalexpenditureThecurrentaccountbalanceessentiallymeasuresyourtotal(current-period)deficit/surplustotheworldTheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsWecanwritethecurrentaccountas:CA=GDP–(C+I+G)GDPissimplyacountry’sincome(C+I+G)(called“domesticabsorption)issimplywhatacountryspendsSocountriesrunCAdeficitswhentheyspendmorethantheyproduceTheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsGNP=C+I+G+NX+NFPGNP-T+T=C+I+G+NX+NFP[(GNP-T-C)+(T-G)]=I+CASN-I=CANotethat(GNP-T-C)=privatesavings(T-G)=governmentsavingsPrivatesavings+governmentsavings=nationalsavingsTheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsHowcanweusetheseidentities?Theseidentitieshelpustolookatthesamethingbydifferentways.SurplusThecountryhaspositivenetforeigninvestment(thatis,thecountryisactingasanetlendertoorinvestorintherestoftheworld)ThecountryissavingmorethanitisinvestingdomesticallyThecountryisproducingmore(andhasmoreincomefromthisproduction)thanitisspendingongoodsandservices.DeficitTheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsTheseidentitiesalsohelpustoseewhatmustbechangedifthecurrentaccountbalanceistobechanged.Forexample,fromCA=Y-Eweknowifwewanttoreducecurrentaccountdeficit,weshouldincreaseYorreduceE.FromCA=S-I,weknowifwewanttoreducecurrentaccountdeficit,weshouldincreaseSorreduceI.TheanalysisofbalanceofpaymentsTheseidentitiesalsohelpustounderstandwhatforcesmightbecausingchangesinthecurrentaccountbalance.seep21figure2.2foranexampleForinstance,theUShasevolvedfromanetexporterandlenderafterWorldWarIItoanetimporterandborrower.Upthroughthe1960s,theUShadapositivecurrentaccountbalanceandapositivetradebalance.TheUSwasanetexporterandlenderlargelybecauseEuropeandJapan,stillrecoveringfromWorldWarII,badlyneededAmericangoodsandloans(andforeignaidundertheMarshallPlan).Duringthe1970sandupthrough1981,anewpatternbegantoemerge.TheUSbecameanetimporterofgoodsandservices,butstillkeptitscurrentaccountapproximatelyinbalance,thankslargelytointerestandprofitearningsonpreviousforeigninvestments.After1982,theUSshiftedintodramatictradeandcurrentaccountdeficits,becomingtheworld’’slargestborrower.Theunderlyingreason:Ledbynewfederalgovernmentdeficits,theUScutitsrateofnationalsavingmuchfasterthanitsdomesticinvestmentandthereforeborrowedheavilyfromJapanandothercountries.Thedeficitsdeclinedinthelate1980s,butthenbegant