贸易与经济发展

貿易與經濟發展TRADEANDECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTodaro,Chapters12-13Perkins,Chapters191TradeTheoryandDevelopmentExperienceTodaroCh.122緒論Introduction

本講討論發展中國家(LDCsorLDC-lessdevelopedcountries)對外貿易政策和經濟發展議題，包括外貿如何影響經濟成長和所得分配，外貿是否促使一個國家達到發展目標，LDCs是否應追求對外導向或對內導向的外貿政策，或兩者兼具。每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。34雁行理論以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。5TheImportanceofInternationalTradeandFinance

國際貿易和金融的重要性ManyLDCsrelyheavilyonexports(usuallyprimaryproducts)ManyLDCsalsorelyheavilyonimports(typicallyofmachinery,capitalgoods,intermediateproducergoods,andconsumerproducts)6FiveBasicQuestionsaboutTradeandDevelopmentHowdoesinternationaltradeaffecteconomicgrowth?Howdoestradealterthedistributionofincome?Howcantradepromotedevelopment?CanLDCsdeterminehowmuchtheytrade?Isanoutward-lookingoraninward-lookingtradepolicybest?7貿易對發展的重要性LDCs出口趨勢和型態。出口的重要性需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩定性8TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatterns9Table12.11011Table12.21213141516FuelExportCountries1718投資與儲蓄關係Y=C+I+X-M=GC+PC+GI+PI+X-MPS=Y-GR-PC私人儲蓄,GR=Govtrevenue政府收入GS=GR-GC政府經常帳餘額I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(M-X)=GS+PS+FSFS=(PI-PS)+(GI-GS)貿易赤字＝民間超額投資＋政府總赤字（政府超額投資）192021TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatternsImportanceofexportstodifferentdevelopingnations2223Figure12.324TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatternsImportanceofexportstodifferentdevelopingnationsDemandelasticitiesandexportearningsinstability25TheTermsofTradeandthePrebisch-SingerThesisTotalexportearningsdependon:totalvolumeofexportssoldANDpricepaidforexportsPrebischandSingerarguethatexportpricesfallovertime,soLDCsloserevenueunlesstheycancontinuallyincreaseexportvolumesPrebischandSingerthinkLDCsneedtoavoidadependenceonprimaryexports26貿易條件TermsofTrade(TOT)XPI/MPI出口價格指數/進口價格指數100103107109100/100103/100109/102120/109

以上例子，TOT改善，對出口有利XPI/MPI1009895909487

以上例子，TOT惡化，對出口不利2728TheTraditionalTheoryofInternationalTradeTheprincipleofcomparativeadvantageRelativefactorendowmentsandinternationalspecialization:theNeoclassicalmodel2930TheTraditionalTheoryofInternationalTradeTheprincipleofcomparativeadvantage比較利益理論Relativefactorendowmentsandinternationalspecialization:theNeoclassicalmodel新古典模型Tradetheoryanddevelopment:thetraditionalarguments傳統看法＊中國經濟崛起後對國際貿易理論的衝擊31SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:Fixedresources,fullemployment,andinternationalfactorimmobility3233SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:Fixedresources,fullemployment,andinternationalfactorimmobilityFixed,freelyavailabletechnologyandconsumersovereigntyInternalfactormobilityandperfectcompetitionGovernmentalnon-interferenceintrade34SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:BalancedtradeandinternationalpriceadjustmentsTradegainsaccruingtonationals35SomeConclusionsonTradeandEconomicDevelopmentTradecanleadtorapideconomicgrowthundersomecircumstancesTradeseemstoreinforceexistingincomeinequalitiesTradecanbenefitLDCsiftheycanextracttradeconcessionsfromdevelopedcountriesLDCsgenerallymusttradeRegionalcooperationmayhelpLDCs36ConceptsforReviewAbsoluteadvantageBalancedtradeBartertransactionsCapitalaccountCollectiveself-relianceCollusionCommoditytermsoftradeComparativeadvantageCurrentaccountEnclaveeconomiesExportdependenceExportearningsinstabilityFactorendowmenttradetheory37ConceptsforReview,cont’dFactormobilityFactor-priceequalizationForeign-exchangeearningsFreetradeGainsfromtradeGrowthpolesIncomeelasticityofdemandIncometermsoftradeIncreasingreturnsIndustrialpolicyMerchandisetradebalanceMonopolisticmarketcontrol38ConceptsforReview,cont’dNorth-southtrademodelsOligopolisticmarketcontrolPrebisch-SingerthesisPriceelasticityofdemandPrimaryproductsProductcycleProductdifferentiationQuotasRegionaltradingblocksReturnstoscaleRiskSpecialization39ConceptsforReview,cont’dSubsidiesSyntheticsubstitutesTariffsTradedeficitsUncertaintyVent-for-surplustheoryofinternationaltrade40TheTradePolicyDebate:ExportPromotion,ImportSubstitution,andEconomicIntegrationTodaroChapter1341TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionExportpromotion:lookingoutwardandseeingtradebarriersprimary-commodityexportexpansion4243TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionExportpromotion:lookingoutwardandseeingtradebarriersprimary-commodityexportexpansionexpandingmanufacturedgoodexportsImportsubstitution:lookinginwardbutstillpayingoutwardtariffs,infantindustries,andprotection4445TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionTheISindustrializationstrategyandresults4647NominalRateofProtectionThenominaltariffrate,t,isWhere p’isthetariff-inclusiveprice pisthefreetradeprice48EffectiveRateofProtectionTheeffectivetariffrate,g,isWhere v’isthevalueaddedperunitofoutput, inclusiveofthetariff visthevalueaddedperunitofoutput underfreetrade4950TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionTheISindustrializationstrategyandresultsForeign-exchangerates,exchangecontrols,andthedevaluationdecision5152SummaryandConclusions:TradeOptimistsandTradePessimistsTradepessimistargumentsTradeoptimistarguments53ReconcilingtheArguments:TheDataandConsensusNeitherthetradeoptimistsnorthetradepessimistsarealwaysrightTherearemanyfactorsthatdeterminewhethertradeisgoodorbadforacountry54South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInwardThegrowthoftradeamongdevelopingcountries5556South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInwardThegrowthoftradeamongdevelopingcountriesEconomicintegration:theoryandpracticeRegionaltradingblocksandtheglobalizationoftrade5758Table13.259South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInwardThegrowthoftradeamongdevelopingcountriesEconomicintegration:theoryandpracticeRegionaltradingblocksandtheglobalizationoftradeRich-nationtariffandnontarifftradebarriersandthe1995UruguayRound60South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInward,cont’dTheproblemofadjustmentassistanceDomesticeconomicpolicies61TradePoliciesofDevelopedCountries:theNeedforReformRich-nationtariffandnontarifftradebarriersandthe1995UruguayRound(seefigure13.3forquantitativeimpact)62Figure13.363TradePoliciesofDevelopedCountries:theNeedforReformRich-nationtariffandnontarifftradebarriersandthe1995UruguayRoundWTO—1995DohaRound—200164ConceptsforReviewAdjustmentassistanceAutarchyCommonmarketCustomsunionDepreciationDevaluationDualexchangerateDohaDevelopmentAgendaEconomicint