商贸零售行业：从疫后第一个常态化的春节寻找信心

商贸零售商贸零售1/16商商贸零售行业从疫后第一个常态化的春节寻找信心核心观点：⚫市场行情：本周(2023/1/16-2023/1/20)A股申万行业美容护理、社(0.88%)领涨。港股申万行业各细分板块中，专业连锁、旅游零售、客流未被统计在内。另一方面，过去疫情严格管控下的春节，即便返今年春节常态化后的恢复充满信心(从很多微观层面的草根观察也能中国中免(A/H)、王府井等。年后值得跟踪的是返程客流人次以及商务出行人次(以一二线城市之间的航线为样本)，有望推动餐饮及酒店能低于预期等。业评级告日期相对市场表现3-01-2103/2205/2207/2209/2211/2203/2205/2207/2209/2211/22-9%-21%-27% 商贸零售沪深300SFCCENoBNV87003654com欣03653jiwenxin@请注意，嵇文欣并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。市眼批零社服行业:12月社零同比下降1.8%，走出11月低谷批零社服行业:出入境限制放宽，市内免税预期强化23-01-202023-01-172023-01-15略周报|商贸零售2/16司估值和财务分析表称码报告日期级合理价值(元/股)2022E2023E2022E2023E2022E2023E2022E2023EK5/11/140.4416.127.3020.10雪的茶K/10/18-0.150.14-.5710.94-4.605.908.SH50/10/31476.4735.6321.7014.7020.90K00/10/31316.4735.6321.7014.7020.90亭酒店.SZ/10/261.0830.65酒店4.SH/11/251.4839.0315.991.208.90TO.48/03/29.810.7826.0217.778.SH0/10/30-0.180.75-5.57-1.907.20.SZ/11/270.4136.9023.636.SH8/01/180.9329.55.9615.28际.SZ/12/14.5027.0218.310K/12/050.5927.2817.00-1.405.00程网TCOM.O/12/27.036.23106.3540.5636.03-1.003.60BABA.N/01/1957.793.433.89JD.O/01/1010.8123.164.407.00多多O/12/2834.1719.1017.1128.0023.00K/01/150.8819.390.SZ/10/303.3219.1702.SH.30/01/083.806.800.SZ/10/3003.SH/01/112.6863.8748.14.9734.7905.SH/10/28183.3761.4149.20.0233.8921.5021.20.SZ/10/26103.7836.77.5234.0320.2021.20份.SZ/10/13-0.200.29-1--5.006.909.SH/12/260.9631.343.305.30AAP京东(JD.O)收盘价、合理价值均为美元/ADS，EPS采用non-GAAP口径计算，单位人民币；拼多多(PDD.O)收盘价、合理价值均为美元/ADS，EPS采用non-GAAP口径计算，单位人民币；携程(TCOM.O)收盘价、合理价值均为美元/ADS，EPS采用non-GAAP口径计算，单位人民币；AP略周报|商贸零售3/16 4/16表索引图1：一周(2023/1/16-2023/1/20)申万一级行业各板块涨跌幅 5 图13：我国主要城市近一个月地铁客运量情况(万人次/日) 11 略周报|商贸零售5/163.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%(一)本周市场行情和子板块涨跌幅SW美容护理板块、SW社会服务板块、SW商贸零售板块表现均弱于大盘。本周贸零售行业上涨0.59%，社会服务行业上涨1.19%，美容护理行业下跌0.11%。图1：一周(2023/1/16-2023/1/20)申万一级行业各板块涨跌幅1.19%0.59%I4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%1.04%4%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心%%港股方面，分子板块看：SW商贸零售和SW社会服务子板块中，专业连锁、旅游零略周报|商贸零售6/169-019-04-07-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-041-079-019-04-07-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-041-07-01-04-07-01-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-04-07-01-04-07-0120151050201510508%6%4%2%0%-2% .72%%%%(二)本周子板块估值TTM商贸零售PE(左轴)沪深300PE500美容护理PE(左轴)沪深300PE(右轴)000TTM00000000000000062-08-09-01-02-03-04-05-06-07-08-09062-08-09-01-02-03-04-05-06-07-08-09-01数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心略周报|商贸零售7/16(三)本周三大板块涨跌幅TOP5标的表1：本周商贸零售板块涨跌幅TOP5证券代码证券简称幅(%)跌幅(%)证券代码证券简称幅(%)幅(%)8.SH.SZ%.SZST大集.SZ跨境通%%.SZ.SZ8%4.SH杭州解百%.SZ%7.SH%.SZ5%表2：本周美容护理板块涨跌幅TOP5证券代码证券简称幅(%)跌幅(%)证券代码证券简称幅(%)幅(%).SZ1%.SZ王%%.SZ份.SZ依依股份%.SZ48%6%.SZ名臣健康%7%.SZ47%.SZ%9%.SZ份.SZ美谷%%表3：本周社会服务板块涨跌幅TOP5证券代码证券简称幅(%)跌幅(%)证券代码证券简称幅(%)幅(%).SZ3%.SZ*ST易尚%9%.SZ.SZ德7%2%.SZ研纳克.SZ通教育7%%4.SH旅游.SZ2%.SZST.SZ0%1%略周报|商贸零售8/16表4：本周主要覆盖港股消费个股涨跌幅TOP5证券代码证券简称幅(%)跌幅(%)证券代码证券简称幅(%)幅(%)K名创优品%%K.HK雪的茶%7%K90%-SW%K携程集团-S04%%K01%%K%表5：本周主要覆盖美股涨跌幅TOP5排序证券代码证券简称幅(%)跌幅(%)证券代码证券简称幅(%)幅(%)YSG.NMNSO.N名创优品44%VIPS.N品会BABA.N%O多多%TCOM.O程网%JD.O%RERE.N二、本周重点数据零YoY较11月提升4.1pct。2022年全年社零总额44.0万亿元/YoY-略周报|商贸零售9/163179.0%.3%%.8%图8：各月社零分品类限额以上同比增速(%)3179.0%.3%%.8%2022年8月431808月431801624825.69月2.5654.9676.125.76月11014.311925.625.90月034.1(7.5)(2.2)(3.7)(2.7)(2.1).1)(8.7)(6.6)(8.9)26.25月8.2)(6.7).0).5)(3.3).6)(7.8).2)(7.7).0)624.91月9(2.0).6)(9.1)(4.6)(7.0)(1.7).3).0)(4.0).6)(4.2)427.14月.1)0.8).2).3).7)(4.8)(8.1).7).0).8).6)223.82月5.5).3).4).1)4.627.2月9.17.94.87.024.83.922.07月76.86.23.07.70.80.70.722.111.54.97725.6增速环比4.14.461.7).4)4.2817.2.7)(0.8)(6.3).9)841823.2限额以上当月同比(%)粮油食品饮料基础消费基础消费服装鞋帽纺织品化妆品可选消费可选消费文化办公品家用电器和音像器材地产系建筑及装潢材料类地产系家具类消费电子消费电子汽车零售汽车类实物电商累计同比(%)电商渗透率(%)春运1/19春运期间全国客运量和恢复情况客运量(万人次)相比2019年可比期间水平(右)相比2022年可比期间同比增速(%)000040,00000,0000全国客运量总计其中:铁路其中:公路其中:水路其中:民航0%税1月16日至1月20日期间，三亚凤凰机场和海口美兰机场的日均进出港航班分别为7.1万和7.4万。略周报|商贸零售10/1601-0101-0201-0301-0401-0501-0601-0701-0801-0901-1001-1101-1201-1301-1401-15-01-1601-1701-1801-1901-20,000000日度进出港航班(架次)和海口美兰机场客流情况三亚凤凰机场客流(人次)海口美兰机场客流(人次)城市出行略周报|商贸零售11/1612-2012-2112-2212-2312-2412-2512-2612-2712-2812-2912-3012-312023-01-012023-01-022023-01-032023-01-042023-01-052023-01-062023-01-072023-01-082023-01-09023-01-10023-01-11023-01-12上海北京深圳广州重庆苏州成都武汉南京西安2243.70474.70405.70346.60294.70274.60180.00175.70343.70362.90395.10431.10479.60376.80328.00322.90719.10740.50752.50796.10466.70426.90851.00858.70864.00850.00115.70278.62309.11349.06372.54409.21261.07240.44566.02577.30592.35603.15641.28372.37340.48334.75718.60727.48736.05769.14414.71383.17790.45799.49796.71795.93268.98431.58348.19297.55269.91231.15171.60168.63284.08307.43349.42383.11438.02411.99381.43347.63535.11589.21597.97629.51475.64418.23613.62600.75601.66595.62163.80276.40277.40286.90298.50326.40281.90279.90425.90444.40468.00493.70550.90501.90478.90439.10609.00609.50620.00653.50538.20471.40637.60630.10629.10626.80153.90274.56295.43326.42350.10392.42276.38253.55477.55478.15488.08467.16519.42396.55329.53349.56486.91484.23493.48522.03363.76340.18529.15529.66525.86526.6271.50116.30123.60138.00143.73156.80132.70122.00188.00171.90195.20187.50224.60217.40174.70168.90228.40235.20240.10260.40212.50204.00273.10274.80272.00273.5068.06114.63122.90138.02148.75166.05148.17147.01204.18201.70208.12211.24234.83215.73182.90180.31238.47241.00241.58258.36214.52204.95268.73270.40273.39256.2852.7474.5869.5669.6075.1287.5985.2582.32146.34151.68161.73169.94190.62190.60170.68170.21218.21219.88223.66223.66209.66202.51254.16256.49257.19259.5865.2096.9078.4068.3061.5066.8054.5060.40102.90111.10122.30121.90140.30128.40112.20107.10169.70174.40176.70190.30142.60133.80197.10199.10204.70198.2040.0058.5049.7041.9035.0032.8024.3025.7039.4042.7046.7052.0060.1068.1065.6054.6080.5082.6084.1089.5075.1073.6093.7094.9099.1096.50023-01-023-01-13023-01-14023-01-15023-01-16023-01-17023-01-18023-01-19271.81206.22196.30258.09245.43226.28187.81204.60129.90135.40203.70196.80182.10151.40266.23238.56231.17274.33265.24252.10218.28273.7092.60533.04235.1066.90380.90193.8069.90349.46257.3093.30487.59245.5088.20460.28236.6080.30404.72203.7068.80313.33837.40818.37446.90426.72402.50382.80795.50714.72772.60685.16708.00602.80597.60469.81597.92434.27365.23465.24421.82364.23293.69657.90532.90459.30593.70559.10513.50456.90周度均值651.5585.8420.3539.0235.180.0418.5227.4172.0249.4环比--10.8%-13.7%-25.2%-9.9%--7.0%--12.2%-8.9%-4.9%5.0%/3.25%/5.96%/14.52%。略周报|商贸零售12/160月元0月元月元月元8RevPAR()10RevPAR()12RevPAR()000ADR(元)RevPAR(元)Occ(右)9%5%12月主要受全国第一轮感染高峰影响，酒店业整体经营短期出现下滑，但预计本轮求仍在，春节假期及未来国内店业亦有望经营进入修复通道。4706156.19145.83102.8786.9685.0488.6480.06870320.11273.32259.64464661192.77189.62157.12211.59123.98115.80RevPARRevPAR数据来源：STR，广发证券发展研究中心培育钻石额为1.02亿美元，同比下降0.90%，裸钻出口渗透率为8.06%。略周报|商贸零售13/160910/1112010203040506070809101112091011120102/0304050910/1112010203040506070809101112091011120102/03040506070809/10111203/05070911010305070911010305/07091101030507091101030507/0911 坯进口额及同比增速YoY(右)印度培育YoY(右)%%3%0印度培育钻石裸钻出口额(百万美元)YoY(右)0910/111201020304050607/080910110910/111201020304050607/0809101112102.41100%