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BostonConsultingGroup1RichAfricaByPatrickDupoux,LucasChaumontet,PiaCarona,StefanoNiavas,ToluOyekan,YounèsZrikem,KeshMudaly,andFionaTokpleClimatechangeposesasignificantthreattothecontinent.Butasglobaldecarbonizationeffortsintensify,Africacouldemergeasagreenpowerhouse.continentsthathavelargehumanpopulationsAfricahascontributedtheleasttoclimatechangeInitdroveonly4%ofglobalCO2emissions,andaboutthree-quartersofthattotalcamefromjustfivecountries—SouthAfrica BostonConsultingGroup2term,thecontinent’scontributionisevensmaller.Between1751and2017AfricasionsNeverthelessitislikelytobedisproportionatelyimpactedbyawarmingplanet:today,thecontinentorofthecountriesthataremostvulnerabletoclimatechangeththesignicantimpactofclimatechangeinAfricaandthelimitedcapacityofAfricancountries—manyofwhichareamongthepoorestintheworld—toadapt.Withoutrapidandboldaction,climatechangecoulderasetwodecadesofeconomicprogress,lockthecontinentintoevenhigherlevelsofpoverty,andeventuallygeneratemillionsofclimaterefugees.Thosedireoutcomes,however,arenotinevitable.Africancountrieshaveachancenotonlytocreateresiliencefortheireconomiesandsocieties,butalsotoadvanceethreeactionsmassivefundstobuildclimateresilience.Collaborationwithandfinancialsupportfromtheinternationalcommunitywillbecriticaltoobtainingtheleveragingnewtechnologiesandbusinessmodels,Africancountriescanchartimizedtothelocalcontextresourcesandlocalcapabilitiestodrivethecreationoflocalizedgreenmanufacturinghubs.DoingsocancreatemillionsofjobsandspearheadAfrica’sindustrialdevelopment.ThesuccessorfailureoftheseeffortswillhingelargelyontheabilityofAfricanleadersandoftheglobalcommunitytoworkcollaborativelyontopicsoffinance,citybuildingAfricanleadersmustcreatesoundplansfor©2022BostonConsultingGroup3liencethatidentifysolutionstotheircountriesspecicchallengesandopportunities.Atthesametime,developedcountriesinotherpartsavehistoricallycontributedthemosttoglobalemissionsmustndpublicsectorsOnerecentpositivesigninthisregardisanagreementannouncedattheNovembereffortstodecarbonizeitspowersectorandrealizeajustenergytransition.Committingtosuchcollaborativeeffortsisnotmerelyamatterofclimatejustice,ensuringthatAfricancountriesthatcontributedlittletoclimatechangedonotbyAfricancountriesandtheinternationalcommunitycanadvancesustainabledevelopment,enableAfricatourgeoningnetzeroeconomyanddriveprogressinconfrontingtheclimatethreat—notjustforAfrica,butfortheplanetasawhole.TheClimateChallengeinAfricaAfricascontributiontoglobalgreenhousegasemissionshasbeenandremainsnegligibleEmissionspercapitainsubSaharanAfricaareamongthelowestintheworldatmegatonofCO2percapitain2018.Thecorrespondingemissionsroughlyand4megatonsofCO2percapita,respectively,in2018.2Nevertheless,climatechangewillhaveanoutsizeimpactonAfricancountries.(SeeExhibit1.)©2022BostonConsultingGroup4TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangestatesthattherateofhuman-inducedsurfacetemperatureincreaseontheAfricancontinenthasbeenandwillcontinuetobemorerapidthantheglobalaverage.Extremeweatherevents,includingheavyrainandheatwaves,willincreaseinfrequencyandintensitythecontinentisprojectedtoexperiencedrierconditionsoverall.SealevelrisewillthreatenAfrica'scoastallines,includingmegaoonThelocalimpactofclimatechangeincertainpartsofAfricaislikelytohavetinentskeyeconomicsectorstodayparticularlyeatherandarevulnerabletochangesweatherpatternsandlocalclimatesConsequentlyrisingglobaltemperaturesepopulationdisplacementthreatenhumannwaterresourcesAtthesametimeAfricahascapitalandendemicpovertyallofwhichseverelylimittheabilityofcountriesintheregiontoadapt.ThetychallengeisparticularlydauntingofthecountriesontheAfricancontinentfallintothecategoryofleastdevelopedcountries,meaningthattheyBostonConsultingGroup5avelowincomesfaceseverestructuralimpedimentstosustainabledevelopmentandareparticularlyvulnerabletoeconomicandenvironmentalshocks.Andrecentprogressmadeonthecontinent,butalsotowidenthedevelopmentgapbetweenAfricaandtherestoftheworld.Thefalloutfromsuchacascadeofevents,however,wouldbeglobal,aspoliticalinstabilityandconflictcouldincrease,triggeringasurgeinthenumberofAfricanpoliticalandclimate5Africancountrieswhoseeconomiesrelyonexportingfossilfuelsorcarbon-ensiveproductswillsueranadditionalhitastheglobaleconomydecarbonizesseexportsareincreasinglyatriskasleadingglobalmarketsimplementtaxwhichisigeriaAngolaandAlgeriaandcarbonFailingtoadapttoboththephysicalriskofclimatechangeandemergingtradeThreeClimateActionPrioritiesThemagnitudeoftheclimatechangechallengefacingAfricarequirescountriestonomicdevelopmentandaccelerateionoflocalgreenmanufacturingcapabilitiesAsleadersinsideandadevelopstrategiesineachareatheymustbasetheireortsonthecoreprincipleofensuringajusttransitionthatcontributestotheimprovedwell-beingofcitizensandtotheeradicationofpovertyandinequality.(See“TheNeedBostonConsultingGroup6THETHENEEDFORJUSTTRANSITIONSdominatedpowersystemmustgobeyondsimplycreatingjobs.ItmusteconomyForexamplewhatroleshouldsocialwelfareplayforpeoplewhocannotbereskilledorredeployed?Andhowshouldthegovernmenttrytomanagegeographicandculturaldislocationasthecoaleconomyrampsdowninthenortheasternpartofthecountryandasnewgreenjobsinthesouthwesternpartassessanumberofimportantopportunitiesandchallenges,aswellastheedtocapturethoseopportunitiesiftheyaretoensureajusttransitionofSouthAfrica’spowerandothersectorstonetzero.(Seetheneedtoactcollaborativelyanddecisivelytoensurenooneislebehind.AholisticsolutionencompassingacomprehensivesetofenablerswillbecriticalnotjustforSouthAfricabutforAfricaasawholetoensurethatnooneislebehindandthattheeconomyofthefutureisinclusiveandstandTheyshouldgivespecialattentiontoprotectingtheirmostvulnerablecommunities,includingthosemostlikelytobecomeclimaterefugeesoremepovertytrapsAscountriesfocusonadaptationmeasurestheywillalsoneedtotailortheiractionstotheregionalcontext.ThecostofadaptationmeasuresinAfricawillbeimmense.EveninascenarioinonsEnvironmentProgramestimatesthatthecontinents©2022BostonConsultingGroup7Africa,annualadaptationcostsasashareofGDPmayamounttoanaverageaboutangprojectedguresinotherregionsoftheworldwhichrangesarealreadyinvestinginadaptationprojectsandactivitiesmstorestoredegradedlandstAfricadeploymentofwaterdesalinationprojectsacrossthecontinentandinitiativessuchastheInitiativefortheAdaptationofAfricanAgriculturewhichisledbyMoroccoandsupportedbyalargecoalitionofregionallsupportforadaptationactionintheregion(See“ThePowerofAdvancedAnalyticsinAdaptation.”)THETHEPOWEROFADVANCEDANALYTICSINADAPTATIONtdetectassessandcommunicateriskscreasethephysicalandeconomicresilienceofcountriesandcommunities.Kenyasuccessiveyearsofpoorrainhaveletheregioninseveredrought,millionsofpeopleDroughtpredictiontoolshavebeendevelopedthatdrawonadvancedanalyticstoimproveresilienceinthefaceofsuchevents.ThesetoolshavethepotentialtoserveasearlyfdroughtsorBostonConsultingGroup8arleveltheimpactofclimatechangelocallyonspecificsectors,regions,orsandtheycansupportdecisionmakingbytestingthecandmicroeconomiceectivenessofpotentialmeasurescymakersseekingtoanticipateandrespondtodroughts,aswellastodonorswishingtomaximizethepositiveimpactoftheirfunding.CreatingandeffectivelyleveragingdataanalyticstoolswillbecriticaltoactioninAfrica.IntheEastAfricanCommunity(EAC)—consistingofthenationsulturalsectorsbybuildingclimatelsteringvaluecreationbyshiingtothenThesestepscanyieldmeaningfulnvironmentalsocialandeconomicbenetsForexampleclimatesmartACcouldlowergreenhousegasemissionsbyuptocouldbolsterannualGDPfortheEACregionbyasmuchasbillion.heEACismakingadaptationAfricanglobalfinanceisinadequate.AlthoughAfricaistheworld’ssecond-largestandsecond-most-populouscontinent,only10%oftheworld’sclimatefundsgototheBostonConsultingGroup9continent,andgloballylessthan15%ofallclimatefundsgotoadaptationrojectsInadditiondevelopednationshavesofarfallenshortoffulllingtheirpledgetoprovide$100billioninannualclimatefinancingtodevelopingnations—pportcriticaladaptationactionniesaretoincreasetheiradaptivecapacitytodealwithclimatechangetheymustadvancetheiroverallsocioeconomicdevelopment—andaccesstocleancessto10ClimatechangeandthepressuretoclosethedevelopmentgaphaveputAfricandevelopmentpathsimilartotheonethattoday'sindustrializedcountriesdidinthepastrootedinfossilfuelsandoutdatedtechnologies.Butthis"growfirst,cleanupoachwouldleadAfricancountriestocreatehighlycarbonintensiveeconomiesandlockthecontinentintoincreasinglyuncompetitivesocioeconomicandtechnicalsystemsUltimatelysuchabetwouldlimitAfricasgrowthpotentialmakeita“marketoflastresort”thatreliedonoutdatedtechnologies,andfurtherwidenthedevelopmentgapbetweenitandtherestoftheworld.AfricancountriesshouldavoidrepeatingtheunsustainabledevelopmentchoicesofldleveragethecontinentsvastrenewablegiesrgygreenhydrogengreensyntheticfuelsadvanceddigitizationSucheortsnotonlywouldhelpaddresstheustmicdevelopmentityrenewableenergynniestcountriesintheworldarein©2022BostonConsultingGroup10Africa.Infact,thecontinentcouldbecomethefirsttopowerindustrializationintermittentnatureofrenewablescanbemanagedbydeployinghydropoweriblenaturalgaswhichisavailableinanumberofAfricancountriesandcanserveasatransitionfuelinthemiddleterm),and,inthelongerdbatterytechnologyMoroccohasalreadysitiontoapredominatelyrenewableenergypowersystemThecountryaimstomeet52%ofitspowerdemandviahydropower,wind,andEuropeinthelongerterm.TograspthepotentialofrenewableenergyinAfricatohelpsolvethecontinent’senergygapanddrivedecarbonization,considerthesituationsoftheEAC,Nigeria,dSouthAfricaearoundmillionpeoplehavenoaccesstoelectricitydistributedrenewableenergyisthemostcostcompetitiveoption.11AndBostonConsultingGroup11distributedenergyenabledbyrenewableenergytechnology,digitization,andnsupportelectricationinbothruralandurbanareastheEACtoproducearoundoftheprojectedwholiveinremoteareasbymillionpeopleandslashCOemissionsbymilliontons).InNigeriameanwhiledistributedsolarphotovoltaicPVenergyisthemostcostcompetitiveoptiontomeettheelectricitysupplygapinurbanareas,suchastheplyingonlytoofdemandSolarPVdieselhybridsystems,couldgenerateup10to15TWhayearinLagos.Oneofthemostcarbon-intensiveeconomiesintheworld,andthelargestemitteronthecontinentSouthAfricaisresponsibleformorethan30%ofAfrica'stime,however,SouthAfricahasamongthebestwindandsolarresourcesintheinatedpowersystembackedbynaturalgasasacostcompetitivepowerorthecountryOfcourse,transitioningSouthAfrica’spowersystemtonetzerowillnotcomeethedeploymentofroughlygigawattsofwindandsolarnationalsupportforsuchaneortisgrowingAtCOPthegovernmentsofAfricaFranceGermanytheUKtheUSandtheEuropeanUnionannouncedanagreementtoprovide$8.5billionoverthenextthreetofiveyearstohelpsupportSouthAfrica’stransition.Ifwellmanagedandwellcoordinated,themillionnetjobyearsassumingthatthecountrycaneectivelyreskillandredeploy©2022BostonConsultingGroup12theworkforce,withadditionaljobpotentialifthecountrycanlocalizeelementsoftherenewableenergyvaluechain.Africancountrieswillbenefitthoselivingonthecontinentandwillbeacriticalfactorinmitigatingclimatechangeglobally.thelpfuelthedevelopmentofarobustgreenmanufacturingbase.ForexampletheDemocraticRepublicofCongohasthelargestprovenreservesofiontodayAfricancountrieslablerenewableenergytohasgreensteelandothergreenmetalsfuelcellselectricricaTHETHEGREENHYDROGENOPPORTUNITYINAFRICAdctrolysiswillbeanimportantenablerofdecarbonizationacrosssectorstransport,aviation,andshipping.TheInternationalEnergyAgencymportmarketswithimporttargetsofaroundtomegatonsofeenhydrogenproductionwillbethe©2022BostonConsultingGroup13dSaudiArabia,arealreadypositioningthemselvestobecomeleadingsuppliersofHowever,manyAfricancountriesareendowedwithvastrenewableenergyrownandcouldproducegreenhydrogenatgloballyivepricesForexampleSouthAfricacouldgenerategreennsyntheticfuelproductionSouthAfricaiswellpositionedtobecomeamajorproducerofgreenfuels,suchassyntheticaviationfuelande-ammonia,forlocalandglobalmarkets.Thecontinentsuniquenaturalcapitalgivesitanothersignificantgreenrestoration,andbiocharproduction.Asaresult,AfricancountriescandevelopnewbusinessesandservicesthataregoodfortheplanetevenastheygeneratetpoolsforthecontinentTheCongoBasinrainforest,forexample,istheworld’smostimportantforestdiversityorcarbonsequestrationGabonwhichtodayreliesheavilyonoilimportsisexploringhowtomonetizethepreservationandrestorationofitsportionofthemegatonsofCOannuallymorethanone-thirdofFrance'sannualemissions.12In2021,Gabonreceivedapaymentof$17million,thefirsttrancheofa$150milliondealwiththeorestdegradationThismakesGabontherstAfricancountrytoreceive©2022BostonConsultingGroup14rgreenpotentialAfricancountriesmustdrivecollaborationonnational,regional,andinternationallevelsandacrosssectors.ticalstartingstodevelopambitiousnationalclimateresilienceplansthatfosterconcreteestablishregionalandinternationalcollaborationandcomponents:materesilience,andgaugepotentialsocioeconomicimpactsonthemostvulnerableeinvestmentsrequiredtoavoidorminimizedetrimentaleffectsoverthecomingyears.steatoryriskandensureproperexecutionandtrackingofetweenpoliciesthatphaseoutfossilfuelsandthosethatencourageinvestmentsinnewgreentechnologies.TheabilityofAfricangovernmentstoonwithauniedvoicewillbecriticaltosparencyandimprovinginvestorcondenceasubstantialshareofinternationalnancinganddrivinggotiationsthroughauniedAfricanvoice.Africancountriesmustalsoaligntheirapproachestoengagingtheinternationalcommunityontopicssuchasgreenfinance,climatefunding,technologytransferandcapacitybuildingTheInitiativefortheAdaptationoflturewhichaimstoattractmorefundstoAfricasagriculturaladaptationprojects,offersagoodexampleofhowacoordinatedalliance©2022BostonConsultingGroup15betweenmultipleAfricangovernmentscanelevatekeyissuesontherdinationcanultimatelystrengthenionatkeyforumssuchasCOPandbeyondtenstocausedisastrousdamagetoAfricancountrieseventivelylittletoclimatechangeThispotentialtriskfortherestoftheworldItisessentialforAfricannationsandfortheinternationalcommunity,especiallythedevelopedesponsiblefortheclimatecrisistoworktogethertotionasuresandputtheminplacealongwiththerequiredtechnologicalnancialandpoliticalenablers.Atthesametime,Africancountriesneedtoidentifyandrealizenewgreenindustrializationopportunities—particularlyinconnectionwithdevelopingAfricanmanufacturinghubsforfuturelocalandglobalnet-zeromarkets—todriveioeconomicdevelopmentonthecontinentInthisregardAfricahastheopportunitytoturnvulnerabilityintostrengthandtogrowintoagreenrpowerprovidingarmfoundationforsustainabledevelopmentonthecontinentandbeyond.tdecarbonizedfutureforAfricancountriesiscriticalnotjustforthecontinent’spolitical,economic,andenvironmentalstability,butforthegoodoftheworldasawhole.ItisclearlyintheinterestofgovernmentsaroundtheglobetounlockmassiveinvestmentsinAfricaandtopartnerwithAfricancountriestoensurethattheireffortsdonotfail.©2022BostonConsultingGroup16AuthorsPatrickDupouxManagingDirectorandSeniorPartner;HeadofAfricaParisLucasChaumontetManagingDirector&PartnerJohannesburgPiaCaronaPartnerNairobiStefanoNiavasManagingDirector&PartnerLagosToluOyekanManagingDirector&PartnerLagosYounèsZrikemPartner&DirectorCasablancaKeshMudalyPrincipalJohannesburgFionaTokpleProjectLeaderJohannesburg©2022BostonConsultingGroup17,1GlobalCarbonAtlasCO2emissionsdata.,2WorldBank,“CO2Emissions(MetricTonsperCapita).”3IPCC6thAssessmentReport.4WorldBank,“TheNumberofPo