2022年中国奢侈品市场报告-Setting a New Pace for Personal Luxury Growth in China -贝恩d

LuxuryGrowthinChinaOngoingCovid-19restrictionsandeconomicuncertaintycausedthefirstpersonalluxurymarketdeclineinfiveyears.AuthorsandacknowledgmentsandisbasedinShanghai.Youcancontacthimatbruno.lannes@.ChinaandisbasedinHongKong.Youcancontactheratweiwei.xing@.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.Copyright©2023Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.1SettingaNewPaceforPersonalLuxuryGrowthinChinanceIn2022,theChineseluxurymarketdeclined10%yearoveryear,endingafive-yearrunofexponentialgrowth.Covid-19-relatedbusinessdisruptionscausedthedownturn.Despitethesetback,thefundamentalsforluxuryconsumptionremainstrongandgrowthisexpectedtoresumein2023.imesgFigure1:In2022,theChineseluxurymarketdeclined10%,endingafive-yeargrowthspurtMainlandChinapersonalluxurysales(billionRMB)400000121314151617181920212022EGR26%2019–2142%2021–220)%StringentandextensiveCovid-19lockdownsoccurredacrossallcitytiers,restrictingtravelandconsumption;shoppingmalltrafficdeclinedby30%–35%Decreasedconsumerconfidenceandwillingnesstoconsumeensued,duetorealestatemarketslowdownandnegativeeconomicoutlookWeakenedconsumptionpowerwaspresent,duetohigherunemploymentanduncertaintyondisposableincomeSources:Bain-Altagamma2021WorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;Bainanalysis2~50%–60%~45%–50%~40%–45%~30%–35%~20%–25%~(6)%~(10%)–(15)%~(15%)–(20)%~(20%)–(25)%WatchesashionandestyleLeathergoods~(10%)–(15)%~50%–60%~45%–50%~40%–45%~30%–35%~20%–25%~(6)%~(10%)–(15)%~(15%)–(20)%~(20%)–(25)%WatchesashionandestyleLeathergoods~(10%)–(15)%JewelryyrenandFigure2:Allluxurycategoriesdeclinedin2022,butwatchessufferedthemostMainlandChinapersonalluxurymarketyear-over-yeargrowthbycategory2020–20212021–2022(estimated)Sources:Expertandindustryparticipantinterviews;BainanalysisOfflinetrafficdecreasedsignificantlyacrosscities,heavilyimpactingmostcategories;beautyofflinesalesweresomewhatoffsetbystrongonlinepenetrationBiggerbrandsandiconicitemsweremoreresilientcomparedtosmallerbrandsandtrendyitems,withafewexceptionsDigitalconsumerengagementhasbeenthemostimportantleverinlightofsevereofflineimpact3~40%ofmarketvaluein2022(estimated)TRENDSettingaNewPaceforPersonalLuxury~40%ofmarketvaluein2022(estimated)TRENDneFigure3:Theconcentrationofveryimportantclients(VICs)inChinagrewin2022Globaltopcustomerincidenceontotalmarket(2021–2022[estimated])~3~35%ofmarketvaluein21Incidenceon(numberofcustomers)total(numberofcustomers)vs.2019vs.2019vs.2021spendingChina-specificnuancesBEFORE2022SimilarconcentrationofVICsfortopbrandsIN22FurtherincreaseinconcentrationofVICsobservedIN22ReductioninshoppingmalltraffictranslatedintolossesofnewcustomeracquisitionMacroeconomyslowdownimpactstheentry-levelluxuryconsumersBrandsthatdependlessonofflinetrafficandmoreonVICsfaredbetterin2022SourcesBainAltagammaWorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;Bainanalysis4SettingaNewPaceforPersonalLuxuryGrowthinChinaTmallLuxuryPavilion.Trend2:Theduty-freeecosystemownsindownsFigure4:Duty-freesalesinHainandroppedapproximately30%in2022MainlandChinapersonalluxurysales(billionRMB)Hainanduty-freesalesasshareoftotalmarket4704253502301701819202122E6%6%8%11%8%OthersHainanduty-freesalesAGR2018–212021–22(estimated)40%(~10)%38%(~7)%70%(~30)%InQ1–Q32022,thenumberofduty-freeshoppersinHainandroppedby35%vs.Q1–Q32021ThelockdowninHainaninearlyAugustcausedapproximately10Hainanduty-freeshopstocloseformorethanonemonthToaccelerateduty-freemarketrecovery,Hainanofficialsorganizedallduty-freeshopstocarryoutpromotionsHaikouissuedapproximately1.6millionRMBduty-freecouponsduringMid-AutumnFestivalSourcesWINDliteratureresearchBainanalysis5SettingaNewPaceforPersonalLuxuryGrowthinChinacingingFigure5:Domestic,duty-paide-commerceofferedbytravelretailersbecameakeyshoppingchannelduringCovid-19CDFrevenuesegmentbyproducttype(BRMB)4000DomesticpercentageotalNumberofmembersonline(M)GR2019–2134884%2019202020212022H12%38%36%40%28%122028%Duty-freebusinessDomesticbusiness(duty-paid)Note:FiguresincludealltravelretailcategoriesSources:CDFprospectus;literatureresearch;BainanalysisStartingfrom2020,duetoCovid-19’simpactonofflinetourismandretail,CDFstartedtoexpanddomesticbusinesswithowne-commerceplatforms“Sunrise”and“CDFMembers”arethetwomajorbrandsunderCDFdomestic(duty-paid)business,witheachaccountingforapproximately50%2022wasalsoachallengingyearforCDF,asduty-freerevenuedropsby34%inH1;domestice-commercestillenjoyed5%growth(vs.firsthalfof2021)69SettingaNewPaceforPersonalLuxuryGrowthinChina9Figure6:TraveltoSouthKoreacontracted90%,yetduty-freesalesremainedstableNumberofinternationaltravelersvisitingSouthKoreaduty-free(2019–2022[estimated])2%)18M0%)M~1.2M~0.7M201920202021~0.7MSouthKoreaduty-freesalestointernationaltravelers(2019–2022[estimated],billionRMB)7%)120uthuthKoreadutyfreesalestoernationaltravelersfromJanuarytoOctoberwerethesameasin202122JanJan–Oct2019202020212022ENote:About90%ofinternationaltravelerswhopurchaseduty-freeproductsinSouthKoreaaredaigouoperatorsandmainlyformainlandChina;figuresincludealltravelretailcategoriesSources:KoreaDutyFreeShopsAssociation;analystreport;litresearch;BainanalysisTrend3:Globalpricingstrategiesedthe7SettingaNewPaceforPersonalLuxuryGrowthinChinaFigure7:PricinggapsmakepurchasingabroadattractivetoChineseconsumers,onceinternationaltravelresumesPricegapbetweenChineseandEuropeanlabelpriceasofDecember21,2022PercentagedifferenceoflistedpricebetweenChinaandEU(beforevalue-addedtaxback)Luxurybag(>10KRMB)Entryluxurybag(<10KRMB)oeJewelryatch+25%–30%+35%–45%+25%–35%+0%–5%ListedpriceinmainlandChinaListedpriceinEuropeNotes:TopthreeSKUswereselectedforthreetofiveleadingbrandsineachcategory;Franceofficialwebsitepriceswereappliedforbag,shoe,andjewelry;Switzerlandofficialwebsitepriceswereappliedforwatches;theEU/RMBexchangerateis~7.30,andtheCHF/RMBexchangerateis~7.5Sources:Chinaofficialwebsite;Franceofficialwebsite;