高盛-加速绿色能源转换-2022-12-双碳

StimulatingcapitalandreturnoncapitaltailwindsforGreenCapextosupportNetZero,InfrastructureandCleanWatergoals,tailwindsforGreenCapextosupportNetZero,InfrastructureandCleanWatergoals,thoughwestillseeneedforadditionalinvestment.Thiswillrequire,inourview,thethreeC's:Collaboration,ComprehensivefocusandCorporatereturns.Wehighlightthemestoconsiderforkeystakeholders–managements,investorsandpolicymakers–provideacasestudyonreducingChina'sweightingtowardscoalinitspowermix,anddetailwhydifferingstrategieswillbeneededregionallytoimpactcorporatesandconsumers.Wecontinuetoseeattractiveequityinvestmentopportunitiesacrossthesupplychain,includinginGreenablerswhereinvestmentisneededmoreurgently.BrianSinger,CFATrinaChenEnricoChinello,Ph.D.JoyZhang+1(212)902-8259+852-2978-2678+1(212)357-3398+1(917)343-1137+852-2978-6545brian.singer@trina.chen@enrico.chinello@michael.h.wu@joy.x.zhang@CGoldmanSachsCoLLCLCuthorsBrianSinger,CFA+12129028259brian.singer@ldmanSachsCoLLCJoyZhang+85229786545joy.x.zhang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.EmmaJones+61293201041emma.jones@GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdGraceChen+442077745119grace.j.chen@GoldmanSachsInternationalTrinaChen+85229782678trina.chen@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.DerekR.Binghamerek.bingham@ldmanSachsCoLLCKeebumKim+85229786686keebum.kim@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.RachitAggarwal+12129347689rachit.aggarwal@GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL.EnricoChinello,Ph.D.+12123573398enrico.chinello@ldmanSachsCoLLCEvanTylenda,CFA+442077741153evan.tylenda@GoldmanSachsInternationalMadelineMeyer+442077744593madeline.r.meyer@GoldmanSachsInternationalMichaelPuempel,Ph.D.+12123578483michael.puempel@ldmanSachsCoLLCMichaelHaoWu,CFA+19173431137michael.h.wu@ldmanSachsCoLLCBrendanCorbettrendan.corbett@ldmanSachsCoLLCVarshaVenugopalarsha.venugopal@ldmanSachsCoLLCOctober2PMSummary3GreenCapexrequirementsexceedcurrentlevelsofinvestmentbyprivatesector6ompaniescaninvestmeaningfullymorebutsparecapacityishighlyconcentrated9nsnotjustcapitalavailabilitycriticalforincreasedinvestmentWhydifferentstrategiesareneededbycountry/regiontodriveimpactWhenthemarketshouldconsidertosupportcompaniesincreasinginvestmentgyGreenablerslikeelectricitytransmissionneedearlysupportOctober3opmentgoalswebelievestakeholderssuchasinvestorsmanagementsandpacitythresholdsandgapsnComprehensivefocus,bothviadeployingsufficientinvestmentacrossthesupplydearlyinthesupplychainandviaregional-/country-focusedstrategiestowardsloweringconsumerandcorporateemissionswiththeleasteconomicandsocialconsequences.aboutriskandreturnimpactofinvestmentsintheshort,mediumandlongerterm.nCapexsandwebelievethiswillcontinuetobethecaseAtthesametime,thelevelofinvestmentneededtoachieveNetZeroby2050andInfrastructureCleanWatergoalsisinsufcientrequiringgreaterfocusonthe3C’s.Inourreport,wehighlightwherecapitalisneeded,whatinvestorsarerewardingandstrategies/vehiclestostimulateinvestmentwithacasestudyonChinadecarbonizationstrategies.Weseethreekeyareasfordiscussionandmutualunderstandingamongthestakeholderscapabletoacceleratingclimatetransitioninvestment:investors,corporatemanagementsandpolicymakers.vesparecapacitytoincreaseinvestmentwithouttakingvestmentisneededthisdecadevstheannualaveragetobeontrackwithetZerobygoalandweseeanincrementaltrillionneededtobeontrackforCleanWaterandInfrastructuregoals.Ofthis$2.8trillion,webelievetheprivatesectorisontracktospend$0.9trillionbuthascapacitytospendafurther$0.9trillion.This“sparecapacity”ishighlyconcentratedinoil/gas,metals/mining,software,automobilesandsemiconductors.Thismeansothersectorsmayneedgreaterstimulustorampupinvestmentvs.whatisalreadyontrack.orswilllikelypaycloseattentiontotheshort,mediumandlonger-termimpacttocorporate-levelreturnsinordertoprovidesufficientsupport.Assuch,stakeholdersshouldbemoretransparentaboutrisk/returns,projecttimingandconstraints.orwillbothbecriticalwithvaryingneedsopportunitiesbyregionWedonotbelievestrategiestostimulatecapitaleploymentshouldbehomogeneousacrossregionsCompaniessparecapacityfortoberinvestmentisnotconsistentacrossregions.Andsomecountriescouldseegreaterinitialimpactfromstrategies/productsfocusedonreducingcorporateemissions,whileotherscouldseegreaterinitialimpactfromstrategies/productsfocusedonreducingconsumeremissions.ustomersandevecompaniestheircustomersandpolicymakersshouldincreasetheirprivateandpublicdiscussionsonwhattheyareeachlookingfortoaccelerateinvestmentandhowtheydefineavailablecapital.RisingrecognitionbycorporatesoftheneedforincreasedpartnershipswasoneofthekeytakeawaysfromurSeptemberGlobalSustainabilityForumderationforbothndcorporatesWebelievestakeholdersshouldconsideropportunitiesrisksandinvestmentopportunitiesacrossthefullsupplychainofproductsneededforingsufficientsupplyofGreenablerslikesemiconductors,copper/aluminum,electricitytransmissionandcybersecurityWealsoseetheneedandopportunityforinnovationinleartechnologies.dpolicyinitiativesandtechnologydeploymentareneededtosufficientlyinfluencecorporateandreatercorporateemissionsintensitywhileothershavegreaterimpliedconsumeremissionsintensity.onTofacilitateasmootherandmoreakingaexibleapproachWhilelongtermproleofcoaldemandisinacontractingtrend,Chinesecoaldemandmaystaymoreresilientinthemediumterm.Chinaistakingstepsoninnovativemodelsbyleveragingexistingcoalredassets,improvingdeploymentofrenewables,andalsopotentialdevelopingcarboncapturetohelpminimizetheimpactoncurrentindustrialcapacitiesthatmayotherwisebecomestranded.inESGfundholdingscontinuetobeconcentratedinmarket-weightpositionsinlarge-capbellwethersandoverweightwaterWeseeopportunityforinvestorstolookmorebroadlyacrossthesupplychainviaferingslikeousegasemissionsestimatesandalcondencelikelyasdisclosureandforwardestimateswidensovertime.ompaniesdisproportionatelyreinvestingcapitalvspeersastobergcashowwherecorporatereturnsareaboveaverageWebelievethiscancontinue.toberededfororzationinvestmentinsandtrillionforinfrastructurewaterAswedetailedinourGreenCapexMakingInfrastructureHappenreport,GreenCapextowardNetZero,InfrastructureandCleanWaterneedstoincreasetotnannuallyinthe2020stohisrepresentsatrillionincrementalannualmentalcontributionfordecarbonizationis$1.8trillionofthe$2.8trillion.nvolveinourviewanallinapproachacrossmultiplesectorsthatwillbecriticalorneeded(seeExhibit1).Withcontinuedinflationarypressures,weseepotentialupsiderisktothe$6.0trillionannuallythatisrequiredforthisdecade.Atthesametime,thepotentialforgreaterdeploymentlutionscouldincreasethepaceofinnovationinareaslikehydrogenbatterystorageyefciencytoberGreenCapexneededannuallyinthe2020s.PleaseseeExhibit2formoredetails.AsdetailedinourlatestGreenCapexreportpublishedJune13,webelievetheprivatetnmoreannuallyonaveragevsasaresultof:n$0.6tnfrompubliclytradedcompanies,applyingconsensusexpectationsforcapexRDgrowthinEEandaCAGRtooverallCapex+R&Dpost-2023,togetherwitha1.5%annualGreenCapexmixshift—consistentwithourNovember2021ESGoftheFuturereport;Tech,EnvironmentalServices,Utilities,Waterfunds),assuminga50%/50%equity/debtsplitanda20%CAGRtototalcapitalraisedinthe2020s.tober $1.9tn$2.8tnWebelievewearestillcurrentlyontrackfor$0.9ofthetotal$2.8tnneeded$0.3tn$0.6tnProjectedfromProjectedfromprivateAdditionalInvestmentpubliccompaniescompaniesNeededtoberunderstandingamonghowmuchcapacitypubliceAswehighlightthesparecapacityisample$0.9trillionperyearwithoutstretchingbalancesheetsoreliminatingreturnoforhasflexibilitytoinvestmore,asthesparecapacityforadditionalinvestmentishighlyGreenCapex,additionalinvestmentwillbeneededtofilltheremaininggap—byompaniesviaequityissuanceincreasedeedcompaniesannuallyreviseddownslightlyvs.priorestimatesonloweroperatingcashflowandslightlyhigheratesofcashowsintocapexRDandleverageweretoreturntothehistoricallevelsbetweenandmid2010s.Aswehavehighlighted,thereinvestmentrateofoperatingcashflowbackintocapexandR&Dwas60%-70%intheearly2000sthrough2012,butinthepastdecadethereinvestmentrateasdecreasedtonearThisopensupmeaningfulopportunityforpubliclytradedcompaniestoinvestmorewithouttakingonnewdebt,newequityand/orstretchingbalancesheets.edandhasbecomemoreconcentratedwithcommodityinflation.Whilesparecapacityisgenerallyconcentratedinfivesectors(oil/gas,metals/mining,software,automobilesandsemiconductors),theoil/gassectorrepresentsthebiggestshareasaresultoftherecentspikeinpricesandmanagementfocusonreturnofcapital—seeourlatestGreenCapexreportformoredetails.oberGreenCapexSpareCapacity(US$bn)2000GreenCapexSpareCapacity(US$bn)2000BuildingProductsWirelessTelecommunicationBuildingProductsElectronicEquipmentInstruments&ElectronicEquipmentInstruments&ComponentsAirFreight&LogisticsMachineryElectricalEquipment1,000Semiconductors&SemiconductorEquipment0AutoComponents0ConstructionMaterials AutomobilesTransportation Automobiles0SoftwareMetals&MiningIndependent0SoftwareMetals&MiningRoad&RailDiversifiedTelecommunicationServices400Construction&EngineeringAirlinesOilGas&ConsumableFuelsGreenCapexCapacityex-Oil&Gas:$0.26tnGreenCapexCapacitywithOil&Gas:$0.9tnViagreaterreinvestmentofcashflowViahigherbalancesheetleverageeperyear,wewouldstillneed$1.0trillionperyearofadditionalannualinvestmenttostructuregoalsfromgovernmentsandindividuals.Webelievegovernmentdirectinvestmentandindividuals’investmentwillbeimportantandapotentialdriverforsomeofthegap.Governmentsandindividualsareimpliedhistoricallytorepresentahighpercentageofoverallcapitalformationvs.corporatecapex+R&D.Weexpect$0.4tnofinvestmentbyindividualstosupportdevelopmentofresidentialsolar,electricvehiclesandenergyefficientappliances.oberWebelievewearestillcurrentlyontrackWebelievewearestillcurrentlyontrackfor$0.9tnoftheincremental$2.8needed$0.9tntedfromiccompanies$0.3tn$0.6tnedfromvatecompanies $1.0tn$2.8tnparecapacityfrompubliccompaniesAdditionalinvestmentneededober9%%%Allsectors(9%%%Allsectors(ex.Fin.&CurrentCROCIGreenCapexSectors(ex.O/G)CurrentCROCIdingamongpolicy-makers/investors/managementsisregardinghowfinancialmarketswillsedGreeninvestmentWebelievemarketswillconsiderthepitalemployedreturnonuitycashreturnoncashinvestedetcwhendeterminingtheirlevelofguaranteeforfinancialmarketsupport.ManysectorsimportantforultiplesectorsthathavebelowaveragecorporatereturnswheresomeherpriceslowercostsorpolicysupportmaybeneededtatailwindforincreasedinvestmentOuranalystforecastsimplycorporatereturns—weconsidercashreturnoncashinvestedctorsAnimprovingoutlookforcorporatereturnsshouldbesupportiveforincreasedGreenCapexassumingthatmanagementscandemonstratethatsuchinitiativesareeithernotdeterioratingcorporatereturnsorareleadingtoanimprovementinmedium-termorlonger-term.Wenotethatonlyahandfulofsectorshaboveaveragecashreturnoncashinvestedarereinvestingmorethanofcashflowsintocapex+R&Din2022E(Exhibit6).Allsectors(ex.Fin.&RE)CROCIestimatesfromFeb.2reportGreenCapexSectors(ex.O/G)CROCIestimatesaveragecorporatereturns.WecontinuetoexpectthedebateonwhetherfocusonImpactshouldlowertheacceptablethresholdislikelytocontinue.Webelievethatconfidenceinprojectreturns—bothabsoluteandtheirmomentum—andinmeasuresthatwouldoberincreasecashflowtoaccommodateGreeninvestments—willbecriticaltoovercomethepossibleinitialskepticismfrommanagementsandinvestorstowardsdeployingThreecatalyststhatcouldstimulategreaterinvestmentwithmarketsupport.Whiletherehasbeenmuchfocusonfallingcostofcapitalandtheimplicationsofgreateraccesstocapital,giveninflationarypressuresandmarketvolatilitywebelieveinvestorswilllikelyfocusmoreoncorporatereturns.Atthesametime,webelievetherewillbetoleranceforconsideringcorporatereturnsimpactoveramedium-termtimeratepathwayandvisibilityForcompaniesorsectorsthatarenotprojectedtodeliverattractivecorporatereturns,webelieveoneofthreecatalystsisneededtoboostmarketconfidence:nHigherproductprices.AsshowninExhibit7,a1%increaseincorporatereturns—ifachievedviatop-linegrowthandassumingnochangesincoststructure—wouldrequirea1%-4%increaseinpricing.Theabilityforcustomers/consumerstotoleratepotentialpriceincreasesmaycontinuetoprovidecompetitionbetween nLowercosts(Innovation).Ashasbeenseenacrossmultiplesectorsfromsemiconductorstoshaletosolar,greaterinvestmentininnovationcanultimatelyleadtocostreductions.Thelevelizedcostofenergyforrenewablepowerhasdecreasedbymorethan70%since2008,andtheoverallcostcurveofcarbonamsCarbonomicsreportshasalsoasedduetoinnovationandscalenPolicysupportGovernmentsarelikelytoplayacriticalroleinsupportingGreenCapexwithmultiplemechanismsinadditiontotheirroleinprovidingthenecessaryregulatoryclaritytostimulateadditionalengagementinGreenCapexfrompublicandprivatecompanies.Amongpolicymeasures,wenotetherecentInflationReductionthyearplanandEUsGreenDealassupportiveofGreenCapexinitiatives.InEurope,wenotetherecentinitiativeshouldgenerateadditionalsupporttoGreenCapexoberWeightedAvgCROCI,2022ERequiredRevenueIncreasefora1%CROCIIncreaseRoadWeightedAvgCROCI,2022ERequiredRevenueIncreasefora1%CROCIIncreaseRoadRailEnergyEquipment&ServicesConstruction&ingWirelessTelecommunicationServicesElectricalEquipmentneryMetalsMiningBuildingProductsElectronicEquipAirlinesSemiconductorsAutomobilesAirFreight&Logisticsrsified14%TelecommunicationServicesTransportation12%InfrastructureAutoComponentsConstructionMaterialsWaterUtilitiesConglomeratesicUtilitieslities%OilGas&ConsumableandREstwareitrchE30%25%20%15%10%5%0%PharmaceuticalsSoftwareInteractiveMedia&ServicesPharmaceuticalsSoftwareInteractiveMedia&ServicesBiotechnologyCommunicationsEquipmentEntertainmentContainers&PackagingLeisureProductsAirFreight&LogisticsTradingCompanies&DistributorsHouseholdDurablesHealthCareEquipment&SuppliesOilGas&ConsumableFuelsTextiles&ApparelTextiles&ApparelSpecialtyRetailITServicesTobaccoPersonalProductsSemiconductors&SemiconductorEquipmentCommercialServicesTobaccoPersonalProductsDistributorsBevDistributorsBeveragesMultilineRetailHouseholdProductsHealthCareProviders&ServicesProfessionalServicesMetals&MiningLifeSciencesTools&ServicesFood&StaplesRetailingElectronicEquipmentInstruments&ComponentsDiversifiedConsumerServicesHotelsRestaurantsDiversifiedConsumerServicesPaper&ForestProductsElectricalEquipmentAutomobilesAutoAutomobilesInternet&DirectMarketingRetailConstruction&EngineeringGasConstruction&EngineeringGasUtilitiesWaterUtilitiesMediaAerospace&DefenseFoodProductsCFoodProductsChemicalsIndustrialConglomeratesWirelessTelecommunicationServicesREITsTransportationInfrastructureMulti-UtilitiesHealthCareTechnologyElectricityProducersDiversifiedTelecommunicationHealthCareTechnologyElectricityProducersEnergyEquipment&Services0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%ReinvestmentRate,2022E0%5%10%15%20%25%30%CROCIEstimates,2022Eoberobereinvestorspolicymakersandmanagementsshouldnotviewimpacthomogeneouslywhenconsideringstrategyorproductdeployment.Someioneffortsinitiallyfocusedoncorporates,whileotherscouldbenefitmoreinitiallyfromsolutionsthatcanlowertargetedattheregionorcountryleveltoinfluencethegreatestlevelofbehavioralsandinvestmentindecarbonizationsolutionsaterntisneededinAmericasEMEAconsumerbaseddecarbonizationsolutionscanbeinitiallyimpactfuldeployedintheUS/Japan/Australia,andcorporate-focusedsolutionscanbeinitiallyimpactfulinIndia/SouthAfrica/SaudiArabia.goalsThereisrisingrecognitionthatpolicymakersandinvestorshavefocuseddecarbonizationeffortsmoretowardsloweringsupplyofhigh-emittingproductsthanloweringdemand.Thishashelpedcontributetotheinflationaryenvironmentincommodities,evenbeforetheRussia-Ukrainewarexacerbatedsupplydisruptions.Aswehavenoted,reportedScope1emissionsfromonlyaddsuptoabout18%ofglobalemissions.Assuch,solutionsthatthatcanchangeissionsandcanbedeployedbyprivatecompaniesareextraordinarilyimportant.TherelativelylowdirectemissionsfootprintbycorporatesisanargumentusedtopromotewiderdisclosureofScope3emissionswhichconsidersconsumers.Butbeyondaccounting,drivingimpactwillrequiregreaterthoughtfulnessonwheretodeployconsumer-basedsolutions/pressureandwheretofocusoncorporateemissions.Ouranalysissuggeststhisfocusshouldvarybycountry,dependingonwhetherthemajoremissionsdriverisskewedtowardsconsumervs.corporateemissions.MoredetailscanbefoundinourESGoftheFuturereportoncorporategreenhousegaseerallelectricitydemandonapercapitabasisisgreatestamongdevelopedeconomies,thoughwenotethat—evenamongdevelopedcountries—theUSisEMEATheglobalweightedaverageissignificantlylower,asaresultofmanycountriesandpopulationswithmorelimitedaccessoraffordabilityforelectricityconsumption.WebelieveadvancementustainableDevelopmentGoalslikelymeansthattheglobalaverageforelectricityconsumptionpercapitawillbeontheriseinfutureyears.Thisisonfornancialmarketandpolicymakerconsiderationforcorporatevsconsumeremissions.ForsomecountrieslikeCanada,thehigherelectricityoberMegawatthourspercapita(MWh)consumptionpercapitaisinpartdrivenbysevereweather—i.e.,agreaternumberofMegawatthourspercapita(MWh)y4India CanadaSIndia CanadaSAustraliaJapanOECDEuropeWWorldChina itybycountrydoesnotconsistentlymatchupwithelectricityconsumptionpercapita.Thepositioningofcountrieswhenlookingatcountry-levelemissionsperdollarofGDPdifferfromtherankingswhenevaluatingAsanexampletheUSandIndiabothhavesimilarteriallyhigherelectricityconsumptionpercapitathanIndiaUSwellaboveuldnotnecessarilybedeployedhomogeneouslyandshouldfocusmoreregionallyoncorporatesvs.consumers.oberTotalCOTotalCO2emissions(KgCO2)per$ofGDPTurSouthAfrica Ukraine R IndiakmenistanKazakhstanussiaBahrainChinaSaudiArabia Canada JapanAustralia Qatar BrazilDRCongotaly EEFranceGermanyNetherlandsUKDenmark SwedenSingaporeNorway land Switzerland$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000$90,000GDPpercapita(US$)isgreatestinemergingmarketscopeemissionsperdollarofrevenuebycountryderivedapplyingacompany’soverallemissionsintensitytoacountrybasedonwhatpercentofrevenueeachcompanysellsinagivencountry.Soifacompanysells50%ofitsproductintocountryAand50%ofitsproductintocountryB,bothcountrieswouldbeallocatedhalfthecompanysemissionsandhalfthecompanysrevenuetowardscalculatingcountry-levelcorporateemissionsintensity.Basedonthismethodology,countriessuchnsitiesOntheotherendofthespectrum,corporateemissionsintensityislowestinWesternWenotethatnoteverycompanydisclosesemissions,andourdatasetlooksonlyatemissionsatdisclosedpubliclytradedcompanies(withselecthigh-emittingprivatecompaniesthatdiscloseemissionsalsoincluded,primarilyelectricutilitiesinAsiaandSouthAfrica).oberScope1+2EmissionIntensity,tonCO2per$mnofrevenue--WeightedAverageSouthAfricaSaudiArabiaeadaeombiaSouthKoreaThailandArgentinaAustraliaTurkeyadaTaiwanalmnerlandsngaporemanytedStatesedenAustriaZealandJapanScope1+2EmissionIntensity,tonCO2per$mnofrevenue--WeightedAverageSouthAfricaSaudiArabiaeadaeombiaSouthKoreaThailandArgentinaAustraliaTurkeyadaTaiwanalmnerlandsngaporemanytedStatesedenAustriaZealandJapanwitzerland00DevelopingEconomiesDevelopedEconomiesDomesticemissionintensityandpolicymakerstowardsimpact.OuranalysissuggeststhattheremaybegreaterimpactfocusingintheUnitedStatesandJapanontheconsumervs.thecorporate,whiletheremaybegreaterimpactinIndiaandEasternEuropeancountriesfocusingmoreonthecorporatethantheconsumerInExhibit12wehavecreatedaqualitativeindexwherepolicy/investorfocusmayinitiallybebetterdirectedtowardsthecorporatevs.theconsumerorequallytoboth.Webelieveequitymarketswillputpremiumvaluationsoncompanieswithoratereturnsprovidingenergyefciencysolutionsorinnovationasconfidencebuildsinimpactandexecution.oberCountry/Corporateemissionsintensity(Countryindex/corporateindex)JapanwZealanddaCountry/Corporateemissionsintensity(Countryindex/corporateindex)JapanwZealanddaAustraliaAustriarmanyauthKorearlandsurkeySwitzerlandSouthAfricaThailandArgentinadengaporeaSaudiArabiaColombiaConsumeremissionsCorporateemissionsintensityRDandhigherleverageisdamongAmericasandEMEAcompaniesExhibitshowsthendertheassumptionsthatifreinvestmentratesofoperatingcashflowintocapex+R&DweretorevertbacktotheicalaveragebetweenandmidsisprimarilyconcentratedamongadquarteredintheAmericasandEMEAwhereeachregionholds-44%oftheglobaltotal.PubliccompaniesbasedinAsiaPacificaccountforlessthan15%ofthetotal.SparecapacityforinvestmentfromOil/Gas—whichrepresentsthemajorityofallGreenCapexsparecapacityismoreheavilyconcentratedinAmericasEMEAAswehavewritteninourlatestGreenCapexreport,GreenCapexsparecapacityisevenmoreconcentratedvsourpriorreportsamongOil&Gaspublicly-tradedcompanies:regionally,Oil&Gasrepresents69%,78%and15%oftotalntrateofoperatingcashowbackintocapexRDisreinvest68%backintotheirbusinessvs.49%forcompaniesbasedintheAmericas/EMEA.PleaseseeExhibit14fortheregionalbreakdownofreinvestmentober$30395$2948317$581$116$260onaweightedaveragebasisforecasttodeleveragemoreandfasterthantheglobalAmericasEMEAweightedaveragepleaseseeExhibitformoredetails$30395$2948317$581$116$260nd$1,000bn100%$875bn$800bn$600bn$400bn$200bn$0bn80%60%40%20%%AmericasEMEAAPACGlobalOil&GasOtherSectorsReinvestmentRate