OECD-世界经济展望报告

OECDEconomic

Outlook

November2022

PRELIMINARYVERSION

OECDECONOMIC

OUTLOOK

112

NOVEMBER2022

PRELIMINARYVERSION

Thisdocument,aswellasanydataandmapincludedherein,arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.

NotebytheRepublicofTürkiye

Theinformationinthisdocumentwithreferenceto“Cyprus”relatestothesouthernpartoftheIsland.ThereisnosingleauthorityrepresentingbothTurkishandGreekCypriotpeopleontheIsland.TürkiyerecognisestheTurkishRepublicofNorthernCyprus(TRNC).UntilalastingandequitablesolutionisfoundwithinthecontextoftheUnitedNations,Türkiyeshallpreserveitspositionconcerningthe“Cyprusissue”.

NotebyalltheEuropeanUnionMemberStatesoftheOECDandtheEuropeanUnion

TheRepublicofCyprusisrecognisedbyallmembersoftheUnitedNationswiththeexceptionofTürkiye.TheinformationinthisdocumentrelatestotheareaundertheeffectivecontroloftheGovernmentoftheRepublicofCyprus.

Pleasecitethispublicationas:

OECD(2022),OECDEconomicOutlook,Volume2022Issue2:Preliminaryversion,No.112,OECDPublishing,Paris,

/10.1787/f6da2159-en

.

ISBN978-92-64-90931-1(print)

ISBN978-92-64-96461-7(pdf)

ISBN978-92-64-69005-9(HTML)

ISBN978-92-64-39703-3(epub)

OECDEconomicOutlook

ISSN0474-5574(print)

ISSN1609-7408(online)

Photocredits:Cover©Karabin/S.

Corrigendatopublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:

/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm

.

©OECD2022

Theuseofthiswork,whetherdigitalorprint,isgovernedbytheTermsandConditionstobefoundat

/termsandconditions

.

3

Tableofcontents

Acknowledgements7

EditorialConfrontingtheCrisis9

1Generalassessmentofthemacroeconomicsituation13

Introduction13

Growthisslowingandfinancialconditionshavetightened15

Globalgrowthisprojectedtoweakenfurtherwithinflationslowinggradually29

Keyrisksandvulnerabilities33

Policyrequirements47

Bibliography64

Annex1.A.Policyandotherassumptionsunderlyingtheprojections67

2DevelopmentsinindividualOECDandselectednon-membereconomies69

Argentina70

Australia73

Austria76

Belgium79

Brazil82

Bulgaria86

Canada89

Chile93

China96

Colombia100

CostaRica103

Croatia106

CzechRepublic109

Denmark112

Estonia115

Euroarea118

Finland122

France125

Germany129

Greece133

Hungary136

Iceland139

India142

Indonesia146

Ireland150

OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2022ISSUE2:PRELIMINARYVERSION©OECD2022

4

Israel153

Italy156

Japan160

Korea164

Latvia167

Lithuania170

Luxembourg173

Mexico176

Netherlands179

NewZealand182

Norway185

Peru188

Poland191

Portugal194

Romania197

SlovakRepublic200

Slovenia203

SouthAfrica206

Spain209

Sweden212

Switzerland215

Türkiye218

UnitedKingdom221

UnitedStates225

FIGURES

Figure1.1.Avarietyofhigh-frequencyindicatorspointtoaslowdown16

Figure1.2.Commoditypriceshavedivergedrecently17

Figure1.3.Retailenergypriceshaveincreasedmuchlessthanwholesaleprices,especiallyinEurope18

Figure1.4.Contributionsofsupply-anddemand-driveninflationtoheadlineinflationinselectedOECD

economies20

Figure1.5.Somefactorspushingupinflationpriortothewararenowsubsiding21

Figure1.6.Inflationhasbecomeincreasinglybroad-based21

Figure1.7.Short-terminflationexpectationshaveriseninmanyeconomies22

Figure1.8.Labourmarketsaretight23

Figure1.9.Realwagesaredeclininginmosteconomies24

Figure1.10.UnemploymentandinactivityrateshavefalleninmostOECDeconomies24

Figure1.11.Globalsupplychainpressureshaveeasedbutnewexportordersaredeclining25

Figure1.12.Terms-of-tradelosseshavehitincomesinenergyimportingeconomies,especiallyinEurope26

Figure1.13.Financialmarketvolatilityhasincreased27

Figure1.14.Reallong-terminterestrateshaverisensharplyinmanycountries27

Figure1.15.Financialmarketconditionshavetightenedsignificantly28

Figure1.16.Corporatebondyieldshaverisensharply29

Figure1.17.Globalgrowthisprojectedtoslowandbeincreasinglyimbalancedacrossregions30

Figure1.18.Currentaccountimbalancesarehigherthanimmediatelypriortothepandemic33

Figure1.19.Periodsofhighenergyexpendituresareoftenassociatedwitharecession35

Figure1.20.GasisanimportantenergysourceforelectricitygenerationinmanyEuropeancountries36

Figure1.21.Prolongedgasshortagesandgreateruncertaintywouldhitgrowthandraiseinflationin2023and

202437

Figure1.22.Debtserviceobligationscouldsurge39

Figure1.23.Variable-ratemortgagescanexacerbatefinancialrisks39

Figure1.24.Amidsthighandvolatilesovereigncreditrisk,capitaloutflowsfromemerging-marketeconomies

haverisen41

OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2022ISSUE2:PRELIMINARYVERSION©OECD2022

5

Figure1.25.Indebtednessishighinmanyemerging-marketeconomies41

Figure1.26.TheappreciationoftheUSdollarcouldexacerbatefinancialvulnerabilitiesinemerging-market

economies43

Figure1.27.Thestructureofmanyeconomieshaschangedconsiderablysincethelate1990s44

Figure1.28.Theimpactoftightermonetarypolicyvarieswhenallcountriesacttogether45

Figure1.29.Reduceduncertaintyandlowercommoditypriceswouldstrengthengrowthandeaseinflation47

Figure1.30.Monetarypolicytighteninghasbeenfastandhighlysynchronised48

Figure1.31.Monetarypolicytighteningisprojectedtocontinueinthecomingquarters50

Figure1.32.Projectionsofcentralbankbalancesheetreduction52

Figure1.33.Plannedsupporttoenergyconsumersiscostlyandlargelynon-targeted54

Figure1.34.Fiscalconsolidationisprojectedtobemoderateandunevenacrosscountries55

Figure1.35.Publicdebthasincreasedandthecostofnewdebtisrising56

Figure1.36.Policyinterestratesareexpectedtoremainhighinthenearterminemerging-marketeconomies

tohelpreduceinflation57

Figure1.37.Publicdebthasrisenlessincommodity-exportingemerging-marketeconomies58

Figure1.38.Thestockoftrade-restrictingmeasureshascontinuedtogrow60

Figure1.39.SomestructuralpolicieshavelargereffectsondisposableincomesthanGDP61

Figure1.40.Manycountrieshaveconsiderablescopetoimproveemploymentratesforwomen61

TABLES

Table1.1Globalgrowthisprojectedtoslowfurther15

BOXES

Box1.1.Supply-anddemand-driveninflationinOECDeconomies19

Box1.2.Energyexpendituressincethe1970s34

Box1.3.Projectionsofthepaceofquantitativetightening51

OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2022ISSUE2:PRELIMINARYVERSION©OECD2022

6

FollowOECDPublicationson:

/OECD

/theOECD

/company/organisation-eco-cooperation-

development-organisation-cooperation-developpement-eco/

/user/OECDiLibrary

/newsletters/

Thisbookhas...

AservicethatdeliversExcel®filesfromtheprintedpage!

Lookforthe…2atthebottomofthetablesorgraphsinthisbook.TodownloadthematchingExcel®spreadsheet,justtypethelinkintoyourInternetbrowserorclickonthelinkfromthedigitalversion.

OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2022ISSUE2:PRELIMINARYVERSION©OECD2022

7

Acknowledgements

ThiseditionoftheOECDEconomicOutlookwaspreparedbytheEconomicsDepartmentunderthegeneralsupervisionofÁlvaroPereira,LuizDeMello,IsabellKoske,VincentKoenandAlaindeSerres,andmanagedbyNigelPain.

Chapter1waspreparedintheMacroeconomicPolicyDivision,withGeoffBarnardandÁlvaroPinaasprincipalauthors;andCatherineMacLeod,PatriceOllivaud,NobukazuOno,LuciaQuaglietti,ElenaRusticelli,andEnesSunelprovidingsubstantivecontributions.

Chapter2waspreparedbytheCountryStudiesBranch,withcontributionsfromMichaelAbendschein,MügeAdaletMcGowan,MariusBickmann,HansjörgBlöchliger,MartinBorowiecki,TimBulman,DavidCarey,StevenCassimon,BenConigrave,FedericaDePace,DennisDlugosch,FalilouFall,PriscillaFialho,ErikFrohm,PaulaGarda,DanielaGlocker,AndreaGoldstein,NicolasGonne,AntoineGoujard,RobertGrundke,PhilipHemmings,JensHøj,HyunjeongHwang,NikkiKergozou,EunJungKim,CarolineKlein,MichaelKoelle,VassilikiKoutsogeorgopoulou,Ze’evKrill,ÁlvaroLeandro,

TimoLeidecker,GabrielMachlica,AlessandroMaravalle,MargitMolnar,KeiOguro,

AlbertoGonzálezPandiella,JonPareliussen,BertrandPluyaud,AxelPurwin,AdolfoRodriguez-Vargas,OliverRöhn,CyrilleSchwellnus,PatrizioSicari,UrbanSila,ZuzanaSmidova,DonalSmith,JanStrasky,KosukeSuzuki,TomomiTanaka,SrdanTatomir,AniaThiemann,ElenaVidal,BenWestmore,YoonyoungYangandZvezdelinaZhelyazkova.ThepreparationofthecountrynoteswassupervisedbyMügeAdaletMcGowan,JensArnold,SebastianBarnes,MameFatouDiagne,AlbertoGonzálezPandiellaandIsabelleJoumard.

OverallcoordinationandkeyeditorialandstatisticalsupportwasprovidedbyIsabelleFakihandJérômeBrézillon.

StatisticalsupportwasgivenbyPaulaAdamczyk,DamienAzzopardi,StevenCassimon,

CorinneChanteloup,AneKathrineChristensen,VéroniqueGindrey,FedericoGiovannelli,

BéatriceGuérard,MauricioHitschfeld,TonyHuang,EunJungKim,Seung-HeeKoh,AnneLegendre,NatiaMosiashviliandAxelPurwin.EditorialsupportforthecountrynoteswasprovidedbyJean-RémiBertrand,NathalieBienvenu,EmilyDerry,KarimatouDiallo,LauraFortin,StephanieHenry,RobinHoungLee,SisseNielsen,MichelleOrtizandHeloiseWickramanayake.

BackgroundanalysisandkeydatabasemanagementwasprovidedbytheMacroeconomicAnalysisDivision,withcontributionsfromYvanGuillemetteandJeroenMeyer,underthesupervisionofDavidTurner.

AninitialdraftofthereportwasdiscussedbytheOECDEconomicPolicyCommittee.ThisreportispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.

OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2022ISSUE2:PRELIMINARYVERSION©OECD2022

9

Editorial

ConfrontingtheCrisis

Theglobaleconomyisreelingfromthelargestenergycrisissincethe1970s.Theenergyshockhaspushedupinflationtolevelsnotseenformanydecadesandisloweringeconomicgrowthallaroundtheworld.InthenewOECDEconomicOutlook,wearenowforecastingthatworldgrowthwilldeclineto2.2%in2023andbouncebacktoarelativelymodest2.7%in2024.Asiawillbethemainengineofgrowthin2023and2024,whereasEurope,NorthAmericaandSouthAmericawillseeverylowgrowth.

HigherinflationandlowergrowtharetheheftypricethattheglobaleconomyispayingforRussia’swarofaggressionagainstUkraine.Althoughpriceswerealreadycreepingupduetotherapidreboundfromthepandemicandrelatedsupplychainconstraints,inflationsoaredandbecamemuchmorepervasivearoundtheworldfollowingRussia’sinvasion.

Asaconsequenceoftheunexpectedsurgeinprices,realwagesarefallinginmanycountries,slashingpurchasingpower.Thisishurtingpeopleeverywhere.Ifinflationisnotcontained,theseproblemswillonlybecomeworse.Thus,fightinginflationhastobeourtoppolicypriorityrightnow.

Centralbanksaroundtheworldareincreasinginterestratestocurbinflationandanchorinflationexpectationsintheirrespectiveeconomies.Thisstrategyisstartingtopayoff.Forexample,inBrazil,thecentralbankmovedswiftly,andinflationhasstartedtocomedowninrecentmonths.IntheUnitedStates,thelatestdataalsoseemtosuggestsomeprogressinthefightagainstinflation.Nevertheless,monetarypolicyshouldcontinuetotighteninthecountrieswhereinflationremainsh