Morning Consult：2022下半年美国零售和电子商务报告

ANALYSTREPORT

TheStateof

Retail&E-Commerce

Findingthenextwaveofonlineshoppinggrowth

amidmountinginflationarypressure

H22022

©2022MorningConsult.Allrightsreserved.

2

InThisReport

3ExecutiveSummary

4KeyTakeaways

5E-CommerceGrowthNormalizes

14FulfillmentConvenienceOutweighsSpeed

23InflationStrainsConsumers’Budgets

29TheDataBehindtheReport

83%

67%

67%

63%

55%

ExecutiveSummary

Growthinconsumers’useofe-commercechannelshasnormalized,andthenextphaseofgrowthwillrequireovercomingonlineanddeliveryfriction.Shoppersreducingdiscretionaryspendingduetoinflationwillmakeitharderforretailerstocontinuetheseinvestments.

MorningConsult’ssemiannualStateofRetail&

E-Commercereporttracksevolvingconsumershoppingbehaviorsandexpectationsandinterpretswhattheymeanfortheindustry’sfuture.

Thisyear,retailhasseencontinuedspendinggrowth,althoughthathasbeenledmorebyinflationthanbyincreasingconsumerdemand.While

consumerconfidence

hasplummeted,spendinghasremainedhigh,butwe’realreadyseeingshopperbehaviorchange,demonstratingthatthespendingspreecan’tgoonforever.Retailersneedtocloselymonitortheirkeyshoppersegmentsforindicationsofchangingdemandandbehaviorpatterns.

Basedonsurveyinterviewswithmorethan15,000adultsacrosstheUnitedStates,Australia,

Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,Italy,

Japan,Mexico,SouthKorea,Spain,ThailandandtheUnitedKingdom,thisreportprovidesinsightintoconsumertrendsthatwillshapethefutureofretailande-commerce.

Sharesofconsumerswhoprefertoshopinstores

versusonlineinthefollowingcategories:

ONLINE

INSTORES

15%

Groceriesand

householdgoods

21%

Homefurnishings

andappliances

Beautyand

24%

personalcare

products

33%

Apparel,shoes

andaccessories

37%

Personal

electronics

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.“Idon’tpurchaseproductsfromthiscategory”responsesnotshown.

3

4

2

Convenientdeliveryismoreimportantthanfastdelivery

Shoppersuse“buyonline,pickupinstore”servicesforconveniencemorethandeliveryspeed,andmostshoppersdon’texpecttheironlineorderstocomesoonerthanfivedays.

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3

Consumerscan’tcontinuetoabsorbhighercosts,andretailers’painwillgrow

Shoppershavemaintainedspendinginthefaceofsky-highinflationbutareincreasinglymakingtrade-offstoaccommodatehigherpricesforessentials.Nonessentialcategorieswillstruggleinthesecondhalfof2022.

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KeyTakeaways

1

Thenextphaseof

e-commercegrowthrequiresmoreIRLshoppingelements

Torealizecontinuedonlineshoppinggrowth,retailerswillneedtoimprovetheirdiscoveryanddeliveryexperiences.Advancingretailtechnologycanhelp,butconsumeradoptioniscurrentlylagging.

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5

SECTION1

E-CommerceGrowth

Normalizes

Ase-commercereturnstoitspre-pandemicgrowthtrajectory,

retailersshouldlooktobrick-and-mortarintegrationsand

advantagestoidentifyopportunitiestobringinnewshoppers

6

%2%21%

2%

%

mo

week

meawe

day

tima

10%

Globally,onlineshoppingratesarerelativelystable,withkeyexceptions

SOUTHKOREA

N

ot

ata

ll

9

O

nc

ea

nt

h

or

less

6

O

nc

ea

A

fe

wti

s

ek

6

O

nc

ea

8

Sev

eral

e

s

d

ay

Apr’21

Jul’22

UNITEDSTATES

17

%

%

16

%

19

%

7

9

%

%

32

Source:MorningConsultBrandIntelligence

Onlineshoppingfrequencybycountry

CHINA

18

%

12

9

%

%

%

18

%

%

22

22

UNITEDKINGDOM

11

%

%

%

21

8

%%

8

%

33

20

MEXICO

31%

36%

13%

15%

2%

FRANCE

28%

41%

11%

15%

4%

Onlineshoppingratesaremostlysteady

inmanyofthecountriesanalyzedforthis

report,butSouthKorea,Chinaand

Mexicoarestandouts.

TheUnitedStates,UnitedKingdomand

Franceallseestablebutdifferinglevels

ofonlineshopping.TheUnitedKingdom

outpacestheUnitedStates,butFrance

islagging,givenitsconsumers’overall

preferenceforshoppinginstores.

Meanwhile,inSouthKorea,therising

andfallingfrequencyofonlineshopping

alignswithCOVID-19lockdowns;in

China,bothlockdownsandthe

government’sbigtechcrackdownledto

adipandrecoveryinonlineshopping

rates.Mexicohasseenmoresteady

growthandisonekeytestmarketfor

ultrafastdeliverydisruptors.

AsiancountriesandtheUnitedKingdomleadconsumerpreferenceforonlineshoppingacrossmultiplecategories

Thechallengesofdeliveringasatisfyingonlineshoppingexperiencevaryacrosscategoriesandcountries,andidentifyingwhichcompetitorsaregettingitrightinothermarketscanhelpretailersidentifypathstoe-commercegrowth.Forexample,apparelandelectronicsretailersmightlooktotheircounterpartsinChina,GermanyortheUnitedKingdomtodeterminebestpractices.

Thegrocerycategorypresentsaninterestingtestcaseforretailinnovation.DespitelowconsumerinterestoutsideChinaandSouthKorea—and,toalesserextent,theUnitedKingdom—groceryretailersaroundtheworldarefindingwaystodeliveronlineordersinaslittleas15minutes.Butit’sunlikelythattheseservicescanscaleinmarketswherepreferenceforonlineshoppingremainslow.

Preferenceforonlineshoppingbycategory

AMERICAS

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

BrazilCanadaMexicoU.S.FranceGermanyItalySpainU.K.AustraliaChinaJapanSouthKoreaThailand

Apparel,shoes

andaccessories

Beautyandpersonal

careproducts

Groceriesand

householdgoods

Homefurnishings

andappliances

Personalelectronics

10%

30%

40%

50%

20%

70%

80%

0%

60%

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.

7

8

E-commercebeatsin-storeshoppingonconvenienceandtimesaved

IntheUnitedStates,onlineshoppingwinsonconvenience,timesavingsandproductselection—allfactorsthatstoreswillalwayshaveahardtimecompetingwith.

Physicalstoresdohaveseveraladvantagesovere-commercethataredifficulttoreplicate,butretailersaremakingstridestoclosethatgap.Leadingbrandsareusingdigitalchannelsandlocationservicestopushcustomerstoreserveitemsforin-storepickuptogetthebestofbothworlds.

Advancementsinaugmentedrealityarehelpingconsumersseethree-dimensionalproductsintheirhomesandestimatefitforapparel,buttheseofferingsarestillapoorsubstituteforatactileexperience.

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

U.S.consumers’reasonsforshoppinginstoresversusonline

INSTORES

ONLINE

43%

22%

49%

24%

59%

25%

11%

22%

42%

13%

20%

Convenience

Timesaved

Productcomparisons

Productselection

Enjoyment

Moneysaved

Safety

Promotions

Productdetails

Productquality

Customerservice

Black,HispanicandGen

Zshoppershaveamuchlowerperceptionof

onlineconveniencethanthegeneralpopulation.

Shoppersfromhouseholdswith$100kormoreinannualincomearemuchmorelikelytosayproductcomparisonsareanadvantageofonlineshopping.

High-andmiddle-incomeshoppers(atleast$50kinannualincome)aremorelikelytocitebetterproductselectionasareasonforshoppingonline.

MillennialsandGenZadultsaremorelikelythanothergenerationstoprefershoppingonlinebecauseofbetterpromotionsanddiscounts.

38%

69%

48%

45%

41%

78%

33%

14%

25%

24%

12%

50%

41%

Thedeclineinenjoymentofonlineshoppingisparticularlypronouncedamongmillennials—thegenerationmostlikelytopreferonlineshopping.InJune,just37%saidtheyshoponlinebecausetheyenjoydoingso.

Butenjoymentofonlineshoppingisdwindling,whilestoresareholdingsteady

U.S.consumers’enjoymentofonlineshoppinghasdwindledoverthelastfewmonths.InMarch,50%ofonlineshopperssaidtheyprefershoppingonlinebecausetheyenjoytheexperience;inJune,thatwasdownto41%.Don’tblamethesupplychain,though:Onlineshoppersarereportingfewerdelayedorders,butasconsumersbegindeferringdiscretionarypurchasesbecauseofinflation,shoppingforfunisn’twhatitusedtobe.

In-storeshoppingenjoymenthasalsodroppedslightly,buttoamuchlesserdegree.

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

ShareofU.S.consumerswhosaytheyshoponlineorinstoresbecausetheyenjoytheexperience

Instores

Online

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%Oct’21

Mar’22Apr’22May’22Jun’22

Nov’21Dec’21Jan’22Feb’22

9

France

Mexico

Spain

Canada

Australia

Thailand

Japan

Brazil

Italy

Germany

U.K.

U.S.

SouthKoreaChina

Globally,in-storeshoppingisconsumers’prevailingpreference

In-storeshoppingisthedominantpreferenceinallcountriessurveyedexceptSouthKoreaandChina.

IntheUnitedStates,youngerconsumerspredictablyshowahigherpreferenceforonlineshopping,butevenGenZadultspreferin-personoveronlineshopping.Householdsearninglessthan$50,000annuallyarealsomorelikelythanmiddle-andhigh-incomeconsumerstoprefergoingtostores.

RetailersaroundtheworldlooktoChinaforavisionofwhatthefutureofretailtechnologyholds.However,retailleadersmustrememberthatChineseconsumersarefarmoreadvancedwhenitcomestoadoptionofpersonaltechnology,withwidespreadrelianceonsuperappshelpingtoaccelerateChina’se-commerceboom.

Shareofconsumerswhoprefertoshop

INSTORES

68%

68%

63%

62%

61%

58%

58%

57%

54%

51%

48%

46%

41%

16%

instoresversusonline

ONLINEUnlikeinmostNorthAmerican

andEuropeancountries,whereshoppingpreferencesaresimilaracrossgenders,womeninAustralia,Italy,SouthKoreaandThailandshowahigherpreferenceforonlineshoppingthanmen.

28%

17%

27%

18%

21%

28%

28%

53%

57%

18%

20%

15%

16%

13%

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.“Idon’thaveapreferencewhereIshop”responsesnotshown.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,

asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.

10

11

Perceivedin-storeadvantagesvaryglobally

EnjoymentofshoppinginstoresistheleadingreasonwhyU.S.consumerschoosein-personoveronlineshopping,butthatenjoymentisfarfromuniversalaroundtheworld;shoppersinothercountriestendtofindlessenjoymentinshoppinginpersonthanU.S.consumersdo.

Frenchconsumers,whohaveanoverwhelmingpreferenceforin-storeshopping,headtostoresforsuperiorselectionandtheabilitytocompareproducts.Incountrieswithastrongonlineshoppingculture,likeSouthKorea,in-storeadvantageslikeenjoymentandproductdetailshaveastrongerpull.

Globalconsumers’reasonsforshoppinginstores

U.S.

Australia

Brazil

Canada

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

Mexico

SouthKorea

Spain

Thailand

U.K.

Enjoyment

59%

58%

42%

49%

39%

53%

46%

44%

50%

55%

50%

34%

56%

Productcomparisons

49%

52%

43%

47%

44%

40%

37%

22%

55%

46%

46%

37%

42%

Convenience

43%

53%

27%

50%

39%

43%

34%

26%

37%

23%

37%

51%

46%

Productdetails

42%

42%

35%

43%

39%

36%

47%

63%

40%

55%

46%

52%

35%

Moneysaved

25%

24%

26%

29%

19%

23%

12%

19%

29%

8%

19%

19%

26%

Productselection

24%

34%

34%

29%

44%

22%

16%

25%

14%

39%

11%

33%

29%

Timesaved

22%

21%

10%

30%

12%

18%

14%

12%

20%

6%

18%

33%

16%

Promotions

22%

23%

32%

30%

31%

47%

18%

5%

33%

7%

23%

21%

23%

Customerservice

20%

27%

22%

23%

20%

22%

24%

11%

15%

25%

26%

10%

22%

Productquality

13%

19%

16%

18%

16%

10%

9%

8%

14%

19%

9%

15%

17%

Safety

11%

12%

36%

9%

24%

16%

16%

18%

34%

15%

22%

28%

8%

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.

67%

43%

67%

61%

54%

16%

16%

14%

11%

ARtechnologycouldhelpbridgethegap,butinterestexceedsuse

ChinaGermanyThailand MexicoBrazil

Spain U.K.France

U.S.

SouthKorea ItalyAustraliaCanadaJapan

Shareofconsumerswhohaveused,orareinterestedinusing,augmentedrealitytovisualizeproducts

HaveusedInterestedinusing

36%

36%

31%

28%

27%

20%20%

20%

57%

55%

42%

41%

43%

19%

18%

47%

42%

42%

32%

Whileaugmentedrealityisonepromisingsolutiontobringakeyadvantageofstoresintopeople’shomesviasmartphones,interestfarexceedsuseglobally,andtheUnitedStateslagsothercountriesinbothinterestanduse.

Similarly,fitestimators—whichrecommendthebestapparelsizeandpromisetosolvethepainpointofreturnsforbothretailersandconsumers—garnersubstantialinterestfromconsumers,despitelowratesofuseoutsideofChinaandGermany.

Othershoppingtechnology,likeonline

estimatesoflocalstoreinventory,ismore

widespreadandcanatleastencourageonline

shopperstovisitastoretoexperiencea

productifoneisnearby.

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextreme

bottom-boxbias.

12

13

WHATITMEANS:Continuede-commercegrowthrequiresmoreIRLelements

WHATTHISMEANSFORRETAILBRANDS

It’shardtoreplicatethetactileexperienceofshoppinginstoresinadigitalenvironment,bute-commercetechnologyisgettingcloser.Retailersshouldcontinuetoinvestininnovationslikefitpredictorsthatshowagreatdealofpromise,evenifthey’renotquitethereyet.

Bylookingtocounterpartsinandoutofcategory—andtoregionswhereconsumersshowahigherpropensityforshoppingonline—retailerscandiscoverhowotherbrandsareclosingthegapbetweenonlineandofflinecommerce.

Onlineshoppingwillcontinuetogrow,bute-commercebrandshaveto

overcomea

15-percentage-pointtrustgap

amongthosewhopreferin-

storeshopping.Thefactis,shopperswanttoseeproductsinpersonto

validatetheirdecisions.Featureslikeratingsandreviewsareusefulbut

rifewithfraud;moreadvancedtechnologythatgivesa360-degreedigital

viewoftheproducthelpsbutdoesn’tletcustomerssitonanARsofa;fit

quizzesaddsomevaluebutareofteninaccurate.

Forretailerswithbothdigitalandbrick-and-mortarstores,encouraging

storevisitstoseeinventoryinpersoncanhelpovercomesomereticence.

Forthosethatareonline-only,continuedinvestmentinimprovingthe

technologythathassomuchpromiseisnecessary.

Asboththerateofonlineshoppinggrowthandconsumers’enjoymentof

itdecline,it’sincumbentupone-commercebrandstomakethe

experiencemorefunwhilesimultaneouslyreducingfriction.Many

retailersarebehindthecurveonpaymentacceptanceanddelivery

options,compoundingshoppers’frustrationsaftertheyclick“addtocart.”

14

SECTION2

FulfillmentConvenience

OutweighsSpeed

Retailersshouldfocustheirfulfillmenteffortsonconveniencerather

thanoptimizingforspeed

15

Theindustryisfocusedonspeed,butconsumerswantflexibility

Tomanyretailers,winningthefulfillmentraceseemscriticaltostandoutfromthecompetition.ButwithultrafastdeliverydisruptorslikeJokrmakingbigwavesintheretailpressandthenquicklyexitingtheU.S.marketaltogether,theviabilityofthatmodelforU.S.shopperscomesintoquestion.Evenonlinegroceryshopperswhoexpecttheirorderswithinthesamedayaren’texpectingdeliverieswithinthehour.

Formostnongrocerycategories,theneedforspeedisindustry-led.Infact,consumersaregenerallyhappytoreceivetheironlineorderswithinfivedays,althoughsame-daydeliveryandpickupservicesareespeciallypopularwithyoung,wealthyandurbanshoppers.

Whileconveniencedrivesconsumers’fulfillmentchoices,retailersshouldrememberthatspeedisnotthesingulardefiningfactorofconvenience.Onlineshoppersalsovaluetheabilitytoreceivetheiritemsviatheirpreferreddeliverymethod,evenifthatmeanswaitinglonger.

Thisisnottosaythatgreaterdeliveryflexibilityiseasytoimplement.Thelogisticsofofferingavarietyoffulfillmentoptionsarechallenging.Butfornow,retailersshouldfocusonflexibilityoverspeed.

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

U.S.consumers’shippingspeedexpectations

forthefollowingcategories:

GroceriesandBeautyandpersonalApparel,shoesPersonalHomefurnishings

householdgoodscareproductsandaccessorieselectronicsandappliances

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Next

day

Within

2days

Within

5days

Within

aweek

Same

day

Within

2weeks

16

Globally,thereisenormousvariationindeliveryspeedexpectations

MostU.S.consumersdon’texpecttoreceivetheironlineorderswithintwodays.However,expectationsvaryacrosscategoriesandaroundtheworld.

Shoppersincountrieswithultrafastdeliveryservices—likeSouthKorea,ChinaandMexico—havesignificantlyhighershippingspeedexpectationsthanconsumersintheUnitedStates,AustraliaandEuropeannations.

Still,it’sclearthatevenincountrieswithestablishedultrafastgrocerydeliveryservices,thosesamespeedexpectationsdon’ttranslatetoothercategories,whereconsumersgiveretailersmuchmoreleeway.

Shareofconsumerswhoexpecttoreceivetheironlineordersintwodaysorfewer

AMERICAS

EUROPE

ASIA-PACIFIC

BrazilCanadaMexicoU.S.FranceGermanyItalySpainU.K.AustraliaChinaJapanSouthKoreaThailand

Groceriesand

householdgoods

Beautyandpersonal

careproducts

Apparel,shoesand

accessories

Personalelectronics

Homefurnishings

andappliances

30%

40%

50%

20%

70%

80%

60%

90%

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.

17

2daysorfewer

GENERATION

5daysormore

2daysorfewer

COMMUNITY

5daysormore

2daysorfewer

GENDER

5daysormore

Millennials,menandurbanitesdrivedemandforfastdelivery

ExaminingthedemographicprofilesofU.S.consumerswhoexpectdeliveryintwodaysorfewerasopposedtofivedaysormorerevealsthatmillennials,menandurbanitesareoverrepresentedinthegroupthatwantsfasterdelivery.

Retailershopingtoattractayoungerandmoreurbancustomerbase—aswellasstoreswithexpandingmen’sofferings—shouldcloselyfollowtheemergenceofultrafastdeliveryandexplorepartnershipswithsuchservices.Otherretailerscanresteasy,as30-minutedeliveryisunlikelytobecomeacommonexpectation.

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

Shippingspeedexpectationsforapparel,personalcareproductsandelectronics,

bydemographicprofile

GenZadultsMillennialsGenXersBabyboomers

10%

38%

28%

24%

9%

24%

24%

43%

UrbanSuburbanRural

33%

43%

25%

19%

56%

25%

MenWomen

53%

47%

42%

58%

18

Groceriesandhouseholdgoods

Personal

Homefurnishingsandappliances

electronics

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%CurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-store

Convenienceoutweighsspeedinomnichanneloptions

Convenience,notspeed,guidesconsumers’onlinedeliverydecisionsinmostcategories.Theoneexceptionispersonalelectronics,wherespeedconsistentlyoutranksconvenience.Theabilitytocontroltimingisalsocriticalacrosscategories.

Curbsideandin-storepickupoptionsretainextremelyhighlevelsofsatisfactionfromshoppers,suggestingthattheseservicestendtobeaccurate,timelyandeasytoaccess.

Despitethesehighratingsandperceptionsofconvenience,fewconsumersusein-storeandcurbsidepickupoptionsconsistently,indicatingthatthere’sroomtogrowtheseservices.Retailersalsoreportthatomnichannelcustomersspendmore,givingthemagoodreasontoprioritizetheseofferings.

Importanceofthefollowingfactorstoconsumerswhomadeonlinepurchases

forcurbsideorin-storepickup:

ConvenienceTimingSpeedCost

Apparel,shoesandaccessories

Beautyandpersonal

careproducts

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

Personalelectronics

Apparel,shoesandaccessories

In-storepickupremainspopularforelectronicsandhomepurchases

Useofin-storepickupforhomefurnishingsandpersonalelectronicsisrelativelyvolatile,asthesecategoriesarelinkedtomorepersistent

supplychainchallenges

.U.S.consumersaremorelikelytousethein-storepickupoptiontoensuretheygettheexactproducttheywant,whereasothercategorieshavemoresubstitutability.

Useofin-storepickupandsame-daydeliveryforapparelpurchaseshastickedupinrecentmonths,from31%inMarchto38%inJuneforin-storepickupandfrom28%to35%forsame-daydelivery.Thismomentumcomesamidgainsinapparelsectorspendingoverallandanupwardtrendinconsumers’preferenceforonlineapparelshopping.

Shareofshopperswhousedin-storepickupservicesinthefollowingcategories:

70%

60%

Homefurnishingsandappliances

50%

40%

30%

Beautyandpersonalcareproducts

20%

Groceriesandhouseholdgoods

10%

Nov’21Dec’21Jan’22Feb’22Mar’22Apr’22May’22Jun’22

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

19

20

Urbanites,menandmillennialstendtouse“buyonline,pickupinstore”servicesmost

WhencomparingthedemographicprofileofshoppersacrossarangeofcategoriestothosewhoareBOPISusersineachcategory,wecanseewhichconsumercohortsaremorelikelytotakeadvantageofcurbsideandin-storepickupofferings.

Acrosstheboard,urbanshoppersuseBOPISmorethansuburbanandruralones,whichshouldguideretailerstoprioritizeurbanstoreswhenreallocatingfloorspacetobetteraccommodateBOPISorders.MillennialsseesomeofthelargestdifferentialsinusingBOPISversusothershoppingmethods,andmenareslightlymorelikelythanwomentouseBOPISofferings.

SharesofallshoppersversussharesofBOPISusersinthefollowingdemographics:

MenGenZadultsMillennialsBabyboomersUrbanIncome:<$50kIncome:$100k+

Groceryand

householdgoods

48%

34%

31%

27%

50%

44%

31%

20%

AllBOPIS

shoppersusers

Apparel,shoesand

accessories

54%

45%

42%

34%

15%

8%

AllBOPIS

shoppersusers

Personalelectronics

58%

43%

17%

63%

50%

23%

AllBOPIS

shoppersusers

Beautyand

personalcare

52%

44%

37%

29%

12%

50%

49%

48%

38%

16%

AllBOPIS

shoppersusers

61%

57%

49%

43%

Homefurnishingsandappliances

68%

64%

51%

43%

AllBOPIS

shoppersusers

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

46%

39%

34%

34%

33%

32%

30%

29%

27%

23%

23%

22%

16%

16%

Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence

Supplychallengesareeasing,butretailersgettheblamefordelays

Demandforgoodsremainsstrongdesp