气候变化对草地畜牧业的影响课件

气候变化对草地畜牧业的影响中国适应气候变化项目会议TheimpactofClimateChangeonPastureHusbandryinChina

PanXuebiaoChinaAgriculturalUniversity1提纲Outline1气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响

ImpactsofClimatechange(CC)onregionalborderofgrasslandandpasturehusbandry2气候年际变化牧草生物量的影响

CCongrassbiomass3气候对牧草物候期的影响与动态模拟

CConpastureandgrassphenologicalperiod4基于SPACSYS模型的牧草生育模拟与情景分析

CConfeedcropdevelopmentandgrowthwithSPACSYSmodel5结论

Conclusion2

1气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响

ImpactsofClimatechange(CC)onregionalborderofgrasslandandpasturehusbandry

总体上变暖变干,中东部降水减少

Warmeranddryer,lowerprecipitationinmiddleeast农牧交错中段西部南界南移

Theborderoffarming-pastoralecotone

movessouthwards3内蒙古1991-2005年T≥0℃积温分布图全区有气候变暖趋势内蒙古1991-2005年T≥0℃积温分布图DistributionofaccumulativedegreedayinInnerMongolia1991-2005T≥0℃

5内蒙古1961-1990年T≥0℃期间降水量分布图DistributionofprecipitationduringT≥0℃

inInnerMongolia1961-19906东部降水减少,干旱带东移内蒙古1991-2005年T≥0℃期间降水量分布图DistributionofprecipitationduringT≥0℃

inInnerMongolia1991-20057全区中东部变干,西部有所缓解内蒙古1991-2005年湿润系数分布图DistributionofCoefficientofHumidityinInnerMongolia1991-20059图3-71971-2000年北方农牧交错带边界移动情况北方农牧交错带地区边界移动情况

Themovingofborderoffarming-pastoralecotone

图3-81976-2005年北方农牧交错带边界移动情况该分析中以1961-1990年划定的边界为基准，分别讨论1971-2000年与1976-2005年北方农牧交错带的边界移动情况。10

2气候年际变化对牧草生物量的影响

ImpactofCConpastureandgrassbiomass113气候对牧草物候期的影响与动态模拟

ImpactsofCConphenologicalperiodofgrassanditssimulation13额尔古纳羊草和贝加尔针茅的返青期和枯黄期的相关性

correlationoftheperiodofseedlingestablishmentandthebrownperiodintwospecies(ChinaLeymusandNeedlegrass)DateofLeymusbeginninggrowthDateofNeedlegrassbeginninggrowthNeedlegrassLeymusDateofgrassscorch14巴雅尔吐胡硕地区羊草、冰草和萎陵菜1995-2007年返青期和枯黄期的变化趋势

Changeoftheperiodofseedlingestablishmentandthebrownperiodfrom1995to2007inthreegrassspeciesChinaLeymusWheatgrassCinquefoilthebrownperiodperiodofseedlingestablishment15镶黄旗冰草返青期与温度、开花期与和降水的相关关系

correlationoftheperiodofseedlingestablishmentandtemperatureinspring(a);correlationoftheperiodoffloweringandprecipitation(b)ofWheatgrassatXianghuangQiSpringTemperaturePrecipitationinJuly17冷蒿、糙隐子草和芦苇物候期与气候因子相关性分析

Correlationanalysisofclimaticfactorandphenologicalperiod

inthreegrassspecies冷蒿糙隐子草芦苇气候因子相关系数R气候因子相关系数R气候因子相关系数R返青期2-4月均温-0.2371-4月均温-0.186冬季降水量-0.590*2-4月降水量-0.507*1-4月降水量-0.308春季降水量-0.573*4月均温-0.469开花期6-7月均温0.725**4月均温-0.650*6-7月降水量-0.506*6-7月降水量-0.746**夏季均温0.790**夏季降水量-0.642**夏季均温0.656*夏季降水量-0.5502-4月均温-0.501*夏季降水量-0.608*6-7月降水量-0.733*夏季均温0.290成熟期7-8月均温0.228夏季均温0.691*7-8月均温-0.0156-7月降水量-0.102夏季降水量-0.4917-8月降水量-0.3548月均温0.3656-7月均温0.635*8月均温-0.0508月降水量-0.0676-7月降水量-0.683*夏季降水量-0.129枯黄期5-8月均温-0.683**夏季降水量-0.554*7-8月降水量-0.597*5-8月降水量0.708**夏季均温0.3787-8月均温-0.116*：P＜0.05**:P＜0.0118建立天然草地模型,可分别对羊草,针茅进行模拟

DevelopmentGrasssimulationmodel

TosimulatedevelopmentofLeymusandneedlgrassetal19天然牧草物候期基本模型

Phenologicalperiodmodel

21即每天的发育时期指数等于前一天的发育速率与当天发育速率的和，当发育时期指数累加到DSI时，则表示生育阶段模拟完成，得到的该生育阶段的天数。此时，牧草即将进入下一个生育阶段。并以此类推，即可模拟牧草整个物候期的变化。每日发育时期指数可以表述为：牧草物候模型的计算机模拟原理22温度和光照对发育的影响

Impactoftemperatureandlightongrassdevelopment23牧草不同物候阶段的温光指标范围

Rangeofindexvalueforeachphenologicalperiod

物候阶段Tb（℃）Tc（℃）To（℃）PLo（h）PLb（h）越冬-返青Ⅰ0.0-5.035.0-40.020.0-25.0--返青-春化Ⅱ-10.0-3.010.0-12.03.0-8.0--春化-抽穗Ⅱ-210.0-15.035.0-40.025.0-30.014.0-16.08.0-13.0抽穗-开花Ⅲ15.035.0-40.025.0-30.014.0-16.08.0-13.0开花-成熟Ⅳ12.035.0-40.022.0-28.0--成熟-枯黄Ⅴ10.035.0-40.020.0-25.0--25模型参数调试Modellingtest不同牧草各物候阶段的模型参数及参数调试结果统计检验26呼伦贝尔牧业试验站羊草产量变化(gm-2)

ChangeofChinesewildrye

productioninHulunbertrialstation年代(Year)/(Month/Date)5月31日6月30日7月31日8月31日200222.630.378.192.5200315.543.245.747.7200423.026.520.330.0200518.549.054.861.3平均19.937.349.757.9均方差3.5810.6023.9026.40变异系数0.180.280.480.4629呼伦贝尔牧业试验站牧草总产量变化(gm-2)

Changeofpasture

productioninHulunbertrialstation年代/Year5月31日6月30日7月31日8月31日9月30日年降水量(mm)1995366.01494.01920.01615.01294.0281.301996410.01011.01665.01835.0928.0394.301997473.0950.01508.01542.01435.0317.31998366.01042.02316.02207.02147.0491.501999810.01700.02391.02811.01467.0279.302000783.01392.01623.01923.01435.0352.92001480.0771.01103.01401.0887.0217.102002566.0998.02221.02421.01621.0316.202003448.0991.01075.01653.01140.0241.02004600.01123.01380.01513.01658.0311.502005748.01898.02198.02380.01690.0309.50

平均550.01215.51763.61936.51427.5319.3均方差165.04354.33476.83456.65363.4574.96变异系数0.300.290.270.240.250.2330呼伦贝尔9月30日生物量与年降水量的关系

Correlationofbiomassproductionon30thSeptemberandannualprecipitationinHulunberRelationshipbetweenBomassandprecipitation31小结

Briefsummary模型已能较好地模拟天然牧草物候期拟加入光合生产模型,以便能模拟草地生物量与气候变化结合,即可用于评估未来气候变化对草地物候和生物量的影响324基于SPACSYS模型的饲草作物生育模拟与情景分析

CConpasturedevelopmentandgrowthwithSPACSYSmodel模型简介IntroductionofSPACSYSmodel模型案例Application；Casestudy基于典型区域气候情景的模拟分析

SimulationofCCimpactintypicalclimatesites33LianhaiWuCrop&SoilSystemsResearchGroupSottishAgriculturalCollege多层multi-soillayers（用户设定土壤层数）田间尺度fieldscale气候驱动weather-driven日模拟dailysteps作物生长和发育（包括地上和地下部分，可模拟单作或间作）plantgrowthanddevelopmentN&C循环N&Ccycling土壤水运动soilwatermovement热量传递heatconductionSPACSYS模型作者及特点34PrecipitationSurfacepoolSurfacerunoffGroundwaterpercolationEvaporationRunoff

lossN2O,NOTranspirationSoilwater

SoilheatLitter,manureCO2NO3MicrobialNH4CO2CO2DepositionFertiliserCO2leachingleachingCanopystorageFreshOMDissolvedOMHumusSPACSYS模型框架Framework35leavesstemsfreshOMpoolDOMpoolhumuspoolmanurerunoffseedstranslocatonmicrobepoolabovegroundlitterrootlitterrunoffrunoffCO2CO2CO2CO2mortalityC模块框架CcyclingPhotosynthatepartitioningcouldbeoperatedeitherbydefaultequationoruse-definedparameters36SPACSYS数据支持Dataset气象数据weatherdata（最高温度，最低温度，降水，风速，湿度，日照时数，总辐射，净辐射）土壤数据soilinformation（土壤理化性质，土壤容重，孔隙度，萎蔫点，pH值等；土壤分层，及各层的水分含量，温度，C&N含量）作物参数cropparemater（发育，光合，干物质分配，等；固氮，3D根系可选）作物管理等plantmanagement（播种，灌溉，施肥，翻耕等）SPACSYS模型数据运行与管理可通过MSSQL,MSAccessorMySQL进行。37SPACSYS数据输出Output作物模拟输出Cropoutput土壤C&N模拟输出SoilC&N水热传输模拟输出Waterandheat根系模拟输出Rootsystem发育期光合速率作物器官生长作物器官衰老作物呼吸叶面积豆科作物固氮NO3-

，NH4+

吸收作物吸水作物各器官含氮量38SPACSYS在模拟牧草上的应用Application案例Case1：阿伯丁，苏格兰（Aberdeen,UK）2001-2003大麦(barley),grass/clovermixedpasture案例Case2:欧洲气候背景下1）Risø,Denmark19842）Dijon,France19993）Copenhagen,Denmark2000豌豆（fieldpea)不同氮素肥料施用处理下的Napplicationtreatments39SPACSYS模型验证对欧洲三个站点豌豆生长季内地上部分生物量模拟ComparisonofsimulatedabovegroundDMandmeasurementinallthreesites横轴为实测值，纵轴为模拟值，(−)1:1lineSPACSYS在欧洲气候背景下应用40SPACSYS模拟初步评估气候变化影响

CConfiledpeainInnerMongoliabasedonscenarioofSRESA2地点：内蒙古试验站InnerMongoliafoursites(grids)格点CentralpointsofGrids站名纬度经度地形高度数据（单位：米）latitudelongitudealtitude(m)武川Wuchuan41.07111.381529.77四子王旗Siziwangqi41.51111.411524.00锡林浩特Xilinhaote43.89116.421198.85杭锦旗Hangjinqi39.82108.441366.0341作物：豌豆（箭舌豌豆）Filedpea材料Material

1:2008年内蒙古武川粮草轮作试验ExperimentaldatainWuchuansite1）发育期观测Development2）开花期，结荚成熟期，成熟枯黄期，三个时期茎，叶，根，荚果干物重测定，最终产量Biomasssampling3）气候监测数据，土壤数据等Weatherandsoildata目的Goal：作物参数调整Cropparameterdetermination42情景分析WeatherdatainputSRESA2情景下HadAM3驱动的PRECIS第二组作业输出结果订正值及相应的气候基准时段订正值（其中风速为模式原始值）模拟Modelling4月25日播种sowingdate25thApr.8月1日收获harvest1stAug.1961-19902021-2050输出Output:豌豆的生育期，产量，生物量变化development,seedsproduction,abovegroundbiomassSPACSYS模拟案例43武川豌豆出苗期（自播种后日数）随气候变化趋势ChangeofemergenceinWuchuan(daysaftersowing)44武川豌豆开花期（自播种后日数）随气候变化趋势ChangeoffloweringinWuchuan(daysaftersowing)45武川豌豆成熟期（自播种后日数）随气候变化趋势ChangeofmatureinWuchuan(daysaftersowing)46年代Decade出苗Emergence开花Flowering成熟Mature1960s1370901970s1470911980s1267862020s1466862030s1161792040s126177武川豌豆发育期development（自播种后天数daysaftersowing）年代平均随气候变化趋势inWuchuan47武川豌豆籽粒产量（g/m2)随气候变化趋势ChangeofseedsproductionatharvestinWuchuan(g/m2)48武川豌豆地上部生物量（g/m2)随气候变化趋势ChangeofabovegroundDMatharvestinWuchuan(g/m2)49年代Decade地上生物量AbovegroundDM地上生育期总生物量TotalabovegroundDM籽粒产量Seeds叶干物重Leaves茎干物重Stem1960s436.0523.5242.919.5173.51970s469.3559.4251.122.2196.01980s431.2515.8268.86.6155.82020s277.8336.6181.83.992.12030s226.0277.3164.21.060.82040s219.7269.8162.60.057.0武川豌豆收获期生物量（g/m2）年代平均随气候变化趋势Changeofbiomassatharvest（g/m2）50锡林浩特地区

CConfieldpeadevelopmentinXilinhaote发育期提早Thewholegrowthlengthisshorten51利用气候情景模拟结果(锡林浩特地区)

SimulationofCConfiledpeainXilinhaoteAverageindecadesEmergence(daysaftersowing)Flowering(daysaftersowing)Maturity(daysaftersowing)AboveliveDM(g/m2)TotalaboveDM(g/m2)Seeds(g/m2)Leave(g/m2)stem(g/m2)1960s18.676.397.6385.01447.97163.7543.42177.841970s18.776.397.9400.18464.52169.6944.79185.701980s16.173.694.5372.16439.54184.5830.22157.372020s16.272.092.0344.75411.91187.0217.66140.082030s14.366.985.0256.96311.70167.373.4386.162040s14.867.887.0269.61326.17171.553.6094.47成熟期提早接近10天,生物量减少,收获指数增加52四子王旗地区CConfieldpeadevelopmentinSiIziwangqi发育期提早Thewholegrowthlengthisshorten53四子王旗地区54利用气候情景模拟结果(四子王旗地区格点)

SimulationofCConfiledpeainSiziwangqi成熟期提早接近10天,地上总生物量减少,收获指数增加averageindecadesemergence(daysaftersowing)flowering(daysaftersowing)maturity(daysaftersowing)aboveliveDM(g/m2)totalaboveDM(g/m2)seeds(g/m2)leave(g/m2)stem(g/m2)1960s16.473.194.7379.28444.04179.0335.36164.891970s16.87495.3384.52451.37180.4634.39169.671980s14.269.490.5328.90391.78190.8514.86123.192020s15.869.689.7313.75375.12182.8714.04116.842030s12.563.982.6253.41307.43171.484.0577.88