世界银行-2023年叙利亚地震：快速损失和需求评估

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SyriaEarthquake2023

RapidDamageandNeedsAssessment(RDNA)

March2023

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SyriaEarthquake2023

RapidDamageandNeedsAssessment(RDNA)

March2023

Disclaimer:

Thisisalargelyremotelyconducted

assessmentthatreliesprimarilyondatafrom

satelliteimagery,publiclyavailableinformation,

andsocialmediaanalytics,corroborated

andvalidatedbyothersourcesandmeans,

includingdatafromdevelopmentpartners.

Althoughalleffortshavebeenmadetoimprove

theaccuracyoftheinformationthatwas

collectedandanalyzed,andtousepublicly

availableground-baseddatawhenfeasible,the

assessmentwasproducedinaquicktimeframe

toensuretherelevanceoftheestimations.

Thisisalivingdocumentandwillbeupdated

asnewinformationbecomesavailable.It

providesanoverallpictureoftheeffectsof

theearthquakeonthepopulation,physical

assets,infrastructure,andservicedelivery,but

isnotasubstituteforin-depthsector-specific

assessments.GiventhesituationinSyria,

thisRDNAwasconductedsolelybytheWorld

BankwithoutanycollaborationwiththeSyrian

government.

Thereportusestheexchangerate

US$1=4,500SyrianPounds(SYP).

TableofContents

Acronyms

3

Acknowledgments

4

Executivesummary

Keyfindings

Objectives

Scope

Methodology

SummaryofSectorReports

Introduction

21

Context:TheConflictandDisasterNexus

Objectives

Scope

Methodology

LimitationsandKeyChallenges

GuidingPrinciplesforEarthquakeRecoveryandReconstruction

AmidstProtractedConflict

26

MacroeconomicImpacts

28

SocioeconomicImpacts

3

2

ImpactonSocialSectors

3

9

Housing

Health

Education

MunicipalServices

CulturalHeritage

ImpactonPhysicalInfrastructureandProductiveAssets

6

8

Transport

Water

Power

Agriculture

DigitalDevelopment

ImpactonCross-cuttingSectors

104

PublicInstitutions

Environment

SocialSustainabilityandInclusion

SocialProtectionandLivelihoods

Acknowledgments

TheRapidDamageandNeedsAssessmentforSyriawasconductedbytheWorldBankGroupintheaftermathofthedevastatingearthquakesthatstruckSyriaandTürkiyeonFebruary6andFebruary20,2023.

TheassessmentwaspreparedbyamultidisciplinaryteamledbyJoyAoun(DisasterRiskManagementSpecialistandco-Lead)andAyazParvez(LeadDisasterRiskManagementSpecialistandco-lead).Theteaminchargeofoverallmanagement,coherencyofthereport,anddraftingoftheexecutivesummaryandintroductionchapterswascomprisedofGhizlaneAqariden(Consultant),FaresSalem(Consultant),MarcCortadellasMancini(Consultant),ShahrzadFard(Consultant),NadiaIslam-Maswood(ProgramAnalyst),AtishayAbbhi(DisasterRiskManagementSpecialist),NeedaMalik(DisasterRiskManagementAnalyst),RandyRizk(ProgramAssistant),andJakobEklund(Temporary).

Sectorchaptersweredraftedbythefollowingspecialists:

•MunicipalServices:MohamedNada,GuidoLicciardi,andNarayanEdadan.

•Housing:MohamedNada,NarayananEdadan,andGuidoLicciardi.

•SocialSustainability&Inclusion:LelavAmedi

•Environment:FrankvanWoerdenandPhoebeGirourdSpencer.

•Water:SallyZgheib,MarcusJ.Wishart,RajeshBalasubramanian,andIyadRammal.

•Agriculture:ArmineJuergenliemk,TobiasBaedekerandHadiFathallah.

•Power:AlexisMadelain,WaleedTayseerAlhaddad,andRidaMawla.

•Transport:MiraMorad,HakimAl-Aghbari,GaelleSamaha,DerekColinMahony,andMarianArakelian.

•DigitalDevelopment:AbdallahJabbourandRitaKerbaj.

•SocialProtectionandJobs:SaraHariz,MohamadMansour,andKhalilWehbe.

•Health:KatrielFriedmanandMohiniKak.

•Education:JoelReyesandDinaAbu-Ghaida.

•Publicinstitutions:RimaKoteicheandAmalChaoul.

•CulturalHeritage:GuidoLicciardi.

•Socioeconomicimpact:SilviaRedaelli.

•MacroeconomicImpact:LuanZhao,CharlJooste,RobertAndrewMarty,JoanneMatossian,EnkhzayaDemid,YahuiZhao,andOlaHisou.

4

5

TheteamwouldliketoexpressitsgratitudetotheWorldBankmanagementfortheirstrategicguidancetowardsthepreparationofthisreport:Jean-ChristopheCarret(CountryDirector),MeskeremBrhane(RegionalDirector,MiddleEastandNorthAfrica)andMarianneGrosclaude(PracticeManager,MiddleEastandNorthAfrica),

TheteamreceivedvaluablecommentsandinputsfromEricLeBorgne(PracticeManager),NorbertFiess(LeadCountryEconomist,ProgramLeader),AndrewBurns(GlobalLead,MacroeconomicModeling,Macroeconomics,Trade&Investment),HemangKarelia(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist),FrancisSamsonNkoka(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist),ZeinaElKhalil(SeniorExternalAffairsOfficer),SalimRouhana(ProgramLeader),FatimaShah(SeniorOperationsOfficer),PhilippPetermann(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist),ElifAyhan(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist),AlainWillyAeschlimann(Consultant),MounirMahmalat(Consultant),andJaeKyunKim(OperationsOfficer)

TheRDNAteamengagedinconsultationswithUNagenciesandwouldliketothankUNcolleaguesfortheirinvaluablesupport.

AnalyticalsupportwasprovidedbytheWorldBank’sDevelopmentDataPartnershipsteamandremotesensingandanalyticsbyIPSOS.

Finally,theteamisthankfulforthegenerousfinancialandtechnicalsupportfromtheWorldBank’sGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR).

Designer:SarahAlameddine

Editing:MarkMattson

Coverphoto:CityofHarem,J14,DOI:11FEB2023.WorldBank/Ipsos

ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYM

ABA

Area-basedapproach

ACLED

ArmedConflictLocation&EventDataProject

AI

Artificialintelligence

ALOS

AdvancedLandObservingSatellite

AANES

AutonomousAdministrationofNorthandEastSyria

BBB

Buildbackbetter

CPI

ConsumerPriceIndex

CSO

Civilsocietyorganization

DCM

DisasterConnectivityMap

DG

Dieselgenerator

DMSP

DefenseMeteorologicalSatelliteProgram

DNA

Damageandneedsassessment

EO

EarthObservation

EU

EuropeanUnion

EWARS

EarlyWarning,AlertandResponseSystem

FAO

FoodandAgricultureOrganization

FCV

Fragility,ConflictandViolence

GDP

Grossdomesticproduct

GFDRR

GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery

GRADE

GlobalRapidPostDisasterDamageEstimation

GRM

GrievanceRedressMechanisms

HNAP

HumanitarianNeedsAssessmentProgramme

HRH

HumanResourcesforHealth

ICT

Informationandcommunicationtechnology

IDP

Internallydisplacedperson

IHME

InstituteforHealthMetricsandEvaluation

IMF

InternationalMonetaryFund

iNGO

internationalnon-governmentalorganization

InSAR

InterferometricSyntheticApertureRadar

IOM

InternationalOrganizationforMigration

ISP

Internetserviceprovider

ITU

InternationalTelecommunicationUnion

ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYM

6

Mbps

Megabitspersecond

MCM

Millioncubicmeters

MENA

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

MOSAL

MinistryofSocialAffairsandLabor

MPCA

Multi-purposecashassistance

MPCV

Multi-purposecashandvouchers

Mw

Magnitude

NCD

Non-communicabledisease

NGO

Non-governmentalorganization

NSAF

NationalSocialAssistanceFund(NSAF)

OCHA

UnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs

PAI

Personalactivityintelligence

PHC

Primaryhealthcarecenters

PLW

PregnantandlactatingWoman

PSS

Psychosocialsupport

PV

Photovoltaic

rCSI

ReducedCopingStrategyIndex

RDNA

RapidDamageandNeedsAssessment

SAR

Syntheticapertureradar

SDF

SyrianDemocraticForce

SSN

SocialSafetyNets

ST

SyrianTelecom

STE

SyrianTurkishEnergyCompany

SYP

SyrianPound

TIMSS

TrendsinInternationalMathematicsandScienceStudy

UN

UnitedNations

UNFPA

UnitedNationsPopulationFund

UNICEF

UnitedNationsChildren’sFund

US

UnitedStatesofAmerica

USGS

UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey

VIIRS

VisibleInfraredImagerRadiometerSuite

VSAT

VerySmallApertureTerminals

WASH

Water,Sanitation,andHygiene

WB

WorldBank

WBG

WorldBankGroup

WFP

WorldFoodProgramme

WHO

WorldHealthOrganization

ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYM

7

Executive

Summary

Followingthemagnitude(Mw)7.8Türkiye-SyriaEarthquakeonFebruary6,2023,andthe(Mw)6.3earthquakeonFebruary20,2023,theWorldBanklaunchedtheSyriaRapidDamageandNeedsAssessment(RDNA).TheobjectiveoftheRDNAistoestimatetheimpactoftheearthquakeonphysicalassetsandservicedeliveryinthemostaffectedareas.TheRDNAcoverssixgovernorateswithroughly10millioninhabitants,withanin-depthanalysisofninecities.

Itprovidespreliminaryestimatestorebuildinfrastructureandrestoreservicedelivery,andgeneralguidingprinciplesforrecoveryandbuildingbackbetter,focusingonearlyrecovery(0–12months)andshort-termneeds(1–3years).TheRDNAalsoanalysesthemacroeconomicandsocioeconomicimpactsoftheearthquaketoanticipaterepercussionsontheeconomicoutlookandonthepopulation’swell-being.

PhysicaldamagesandlossesrelatedtotheSyrianearthquakeareestimatedatUS$3.7billionandUS$1.5billion,respectively,bringingthetotalestimatedimpacttoUS$5.2billion.ReconstructionandrecoveryneedsacrossthesixassessedgovernoratesareestimatedatUS$7.9billion,withneedsinyear1andyears2-3post-earthquakeestimatedatUS$3.7billionandUS$4.2billion,respectively.

TheSyrianeconomy,whichpriortotheearthquakewasprojectedtocontractby3.2percentin2023,isnowprojectedtodeclineby5.5percentoverthesameyear(withtheuncertaintyofthisyear’sforecastincreasingsignificantlyfollowingtheearthquake).1Ontheproductionside,theearthquakewilladverselyimpacttheproductivecapacityofthecountry,mainlythroughthedestructionofphysicalcapitalanddisruptionsintradenetworks.Theprojected

increaseininflationfrom44to60percentduetosupplychaindisruptionsandhighertransportcostswillreduceprivateconsumption.Earthquake-relatedreconstructionisexpectedtooffsetsomeoftheselossesbuttheextentandpaceofthisreconstructionremainstobeseen.Thefiscaldeficitisprojectedtorisemarginallyfromapre-earthquakebaselineof8.6percentto8.8percentofGDPbasedontheassumptionthatthecountry’ssocialandinfrastructureneedsfollowingtheearthquakewillbelargelymetbyforeigndonoraid.Thecurrentaccountdeficitisestimatedtorisefromapre-earthquakebaselineprojectionof2.5percentofGDPtoaround3.2percentofGDP,duemainlytohigherimportstosupportreconstructioninvestment.Theeconomicoutlookispoorbecauseofanticipatedslowreconstruction,weakprivateinvestment,andlimitedhumanitarianassistance.GDPlosseswillbehigherinthemedium-termshouldreconstructioneffortsbefurtherdelayed.

Overall,itisestimatedthat6.6millionSyriansliveinimpactedareaswhichhavebeenaffectedbytheearthquakeatanintensityVI(strongshaking)orhigher.Earthquake-induceddisplacementwilladdtothestaggeringcountof3millionconflictinducedinternallydisplacedpersons(IDPs)alreadylivinginaffectedareas.Highlevelsofpre-existingwelfarevulnerabilitylimithouseholds’capacitytocopewiththeimpactoftheearthquake,henceexacerbatingtheriskoflong-lastingwelfareconsequences.

TheRDNAfollowsanotherassessmentrecentlyconductedbytheWorldBankknownastheGlobalRapidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)2,thatestimateddirectphysicaldamagesinSyriarangingbetweenUS$2.7billionandUS$7.9

1TheWinter2022/23issueoftheSyriaEconomicMonitoroftheWorldBankprovidesamoredetailedanalysisoftheSyrianeconomypriortotheearthquake

2

GlobalRapidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)Report:Mw7.8Türkiye-SyriaEarthquake-AssessmentoftheImpactonSyria:

ResultsasofFebruary20,2023

ExecutiveSummary

8

billion.3WhiletheGRADEfocusesonphysicaldamagesandrelieslargelyonearthquakedamagemodellingandexposureanalysis,theRDNAprovidessectoraldamages,economiclosses,andrecoveryneeds,estimatedthroughvariousdataacquisitionandtriangulationtools,detailedinthesectionbelow.Whiletherearedifferencesinthemethodologyandthescopeofthesetwoassessments,theRDNAdamageandlossestimateiscloselyalignedwiththeGRADE’smedianestimate.

ThisRDNAcontributestotheunderstandingoftheimpactoftheearthquakeonSyria.WhiletheRDNAfocusesonthe

damagesincurredbytheearthquake,thecompoundingeffectofthepre-existingdamagescausedbytheconflictarereflectedinthepre-earthquakebaseline.TheRDNAfollowsagloballyestablishedandrecognizeddamage,loss,andneedsassessmentmethodologydevelopedbytheWorldBankGroup(WBG),theEuropeanUnion(EU),andtheUnitedNations(UN).Thismethodologyhasbeenappliedgloballyinpost-disasterandconflictcontextstoinformrecoveryandreconstructionplanning.PriortothisRDNA,theWorldBankGroupconductedsixassessments4toprovideinformationontheeffectsoftheongoingconflictonpopulation,physicalinfrastructure,andqualityofservicedelivery.5

Figure1:

EarthquakeimpactbyGovernorateandControlAreas6.

Source:WorldBank

3

EarthquakeDirectDamageinSyriaEstimatedat$5.1billioninAreasAlreadySeverelyRavagedbyLongConflictandDisplacement

4

SyriaDamageAssessmentofSelectedCitiesAleppo,Hama,Idlib

(2017)

5

Syria2022-JointDamageAssessmentofSelectedCities

6

2023HumanitarianNeedsOverview:SyrianArabRepublic

ExecutiveSummary

9

10

ExecutiveSummary

SYRIARAPIDDAMAGEANDNEEDSASSESSMENT

RDNA

KeyFacts

OBJECTIVES

•Assesstheimpactoftheearthquakeonphysicalassets,infrastructure,andservicedelivery.

•Conductapreliminaryestimateofinfrastructurereconstructionandservicedeliveryrestorationneedsintheimmediateandshort-term.

•InformtheWorldBankandtheinternationalcommunityoftheimpactandtheneedsassociatedwiththedisaster.

METHODOLOGY

TheSyriaRDNA’sanalysesandrecommendationsfocusontheimpact,andtherecoveryandreconstructionneedsfollowingtheearthquakeinSyria.Damages,losses,andneedsanalysesandrecommendationsarerelativetothepre-earthquakebaselineofphysicalassets.TheRDNAreliesonremotedatasourceswhichinclude50cmresolutionsatelliteimagery,(social)mediaanalytics,anonymizedcellphonedata,nightlightsdata,andpubliclyavailableinformationtoreachinaccessibleareasandtriangulateandimprovetheveracityofthedata.Datalimitationsremained,however.Whilealleffortsaremadetoimproveaccuracy,aremoteassessmentisbroad-brushandprovidesonlyanindicativeoverviewoftheimpact.Forexample,inthewatersector,damagespertainingtoundergroundwaterinfrastructurecouldnotbeassessedduetomethodologicalanddataconstraints.

SCOPE

TEMPORALSCOPE:

Damagesandlosseswerecalculatedagainsttheactualorestimatedpre-earthquakebaselineofphysicalassets.DamagedatawerecollectedbetweenFebruary24andMarch5,2023.

GEOGRAPHICALSCOPE:

TheRDNAcoversthesixgovernoratesmostimpactedbytheearthquake:Aleppo,Hama,Idlib,Latakia,RaqqahandTartous,withanin-depthanalysisofninecities:Aleppo,Harem,Jableh,Afrin,Ad-Dana,Jandairis,Azaz,Sarmada,andLatakia.7Resultsarepresentedbysector,bycity,bygovernorate,byareaofcontrolandattheaggregatelevel.

SECTORALSCOPE:

TheRDNAcoversmacroeconomicandsocioeconomicimpacts,10sectors,and4cross-cuttingareas:Housing,Power,Transport,Water,DigitalDevelopment,Agriculture,Education,CulturalHeritage,Health,MunicipalServices,PublicInstitutions,Environment,SocialProtectionandLivelihoods,andSocialSustainabilityand

Inclusion.

7Thein-depthanalysisexcludedIdlibcityasinitialreportingsuggestedlimiteddamagetothecity.HowevertheIdlibgovernorateasawholeincurredsignificantdamage,whichwasestimatedthroughextrapolationmethods.

11

ExecutiveSummary

MILESTONES

February6

Amagnitude

7.8earthquake

LaunchoftheGRADE

February

7

February13-23

PlanningoftheRDNA

MobilizationofWorld

BankRDNAteam

Amagnitude6.3earthquake

February

20

February24-March5

RDNAdata

collection

Publication

oftheGRADE

February

28

March5-12

Dataanalysis,report

writingandreview

FinalizationandpublicationofRDNAreport

March

12-17

KEY

FINDINGS

DAMAGES

3.7

US$billion

LOSSES

1.5

US$billion

NEEDS

7.9

US$billion

ExecutiveSummary

12

KeyFindingsoftheRDNA

TABLE1:DAMAGES,LOSSES,ANDNEEDSBYSECTOR(INUS$)

EstimatesasofMarch16inUS$

Sector

DAMAGESANDLOSSES(US$)

NEEDS(US$)

Damages

Losses

TotalEffect

Earlyrecovery(0-12months)

Shortterm

(1-3months)

Total(0-3years)

Shareoftotalneeds(%)

SocialSectors

Housing

Health

Education

MunicipalServices

CulturalHeritage

SocialSectors

Total

$880,869,451

$202,859,637

$30,691,845

$73,767,903

$444,020,045

$1,632,208,880

$69,214,139

$97,534,890

$85,373,788

-

-

$252,122,817

$950,083,590

$300,394,527

$116,065,633

$73,767,903

$444,020,045

$1,884,331,698

$446,600,812

$162,287,709

$47,073,437

$38,359,309

$230,890,423

$925,211,691

$961,909,441

$223,145,600

$91,377,849

$57,538,964

$346,335,635

$1,680,307,489

$1,408,510,252

$385,433,309

$138,451,286

$95,898,274

$577,226,058

$2,605,519,180

17.8%

4.9%

1.7%

1.2%

7.3%

32.9%

PhysicalInfrastructureandProductiveSectors

Transport

Water

Power

Agriculture

Digital

Development

InfrastructureSectorsTotal

$717,865,031

$145,372,561

$32,118,566

$559,191,853

$180,000

$1,454,728,010

-

-

-

$1,268,313,107

-

$1,268,313,107

$717,865,031

$145,372,561

$32,118,566

$1,827,504,960

$180,000

$2,723,041,117

$373,289,816

$73,593,009

$16,284,113

$1,602,801,010

$390,000

$2,066,357,947

$559,934,724

$158,508,019

$35,073,474

$519,292,817

-

$1,272,809,034

$933,224,540

$232,101,028

$51,357,587

$2,122,093,826

$390,000

$3,339,166,981

11.8%

2.9%

0.6%

26.8%

0.0%

42.2%

Cross-CuttingSectors

PublicInstitutions

Environment

SocialProtection

Cross-Cutting

SectorsTotal

GrandTotal

$47,045,120

$614,583,069

-

$661,628,188

$3,748,565,079

$4,704,512

-

-

$4,704,512

$1,525,140,436

$51,749,632

$614,583,069

-

$666,332,700

$5,273,705,515

$57,227,028

$307,291,535

$341,760,000

$706,278,562

$3,697,848,201

$3,931,628

$307,291,535

$950,400,000

$1,261,623,162

$4,214,739,685

$61,158,655

$614,583,069

$1,292,160,000

$1,967,901,724

$7,912,587,885

0.8%

7.8%

16.3%

24.9%

100%

13

ExecutiveSummary

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$718

Figure2:

DamagesandLossesbySector(InUS$million)

$L‘V00$L‘Z00

$L‘000$800$900

$V00

$Z00

$-

$1,268

$881

$615

$559

$444

$203

$145

$0.2$0

$32

$0

$47

$5

$74$0

$85

$31

$98

$0$0$0

$69

aeme6部sToss部s

Note:TheSocialProtectionandLivelihoodsandSocialSustainabilityandInclusionsectorsdonotincludedamagesandlosses.

Figure3:

DamagesandLossesbyGovernorate(InUS$million)

$Z‘S00

$Z‘000

$L‘S00

$L‘000

$S00

$-

TeJ\ous

Heme

\ebbe

Te\e入ie

Al?ddo

lpliq

$2,073

$982

$670

$372

$310

$260

PhysicaldamagesandlossesrelatedtotheearthquakeareestimatedatUS$3.7billionandUS$1.5billion,respectively.

ThelargestphysicaldamageswereincurredinHousing(23.5percentoftotal),followedbyTransport(19.2percentoftotal),Environment(16.4percentoftotal),Agriculture(14.9percentoftotal),CulturalHeritage(11.8percentoftotal),Health(5.4percentoftotal)andWater(3.9percentoftotal).Theremainderofthedamages(4.9percentoftotal)wereincurredinMunicipalServices,PublicInstitutions,Power,andEducation.Withregardtolosses,AgricultureincurredlossesrelatedtothefallinfoodsuppliesofUS$1.3billion(83.2percentoftotal).TheremainderofthelosseswereinHealthandinEducationasaresultofadditional,unanticipatedrecurrentexpendituresinthesesectors,andinHousing,relatedtothelossofrentalincome,housingexpendituresoffamilieswithdestroyedhouses,lossofhousingassets,andlossofincometogovernments.Somesectorlossescouldnotbeincludedintheassessmentduetodataconstraints.

AmongthesixGovernoratesassessedundertheRDNA,theGovernorateofAleppo(whichincludesthecitiesofAleppo,AzazandAfrin)wasmostdamagedat44percentoftotaldamages.ThesecondlargestdamageswereincurredinIdlib(whichincludesthecitiesofSarmada,HaremandAd-Dana)at21percentoftotaldamages.InAleppoGovernorate,damageswerepredominantlyinHousing,followedbyAgriculture,Environment,andCulturalHeritage.InIdlibGovernorate,damagesweremostsignificantinAgriculture,followedbyHousing,Transport,EnvironmentandHealth.

14

ExecutiveSummary

$3,000

$2,829

$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,295

$1,150

$1,000

$500

$-

Figure4:

DamagesandLossesbyCity(InUS$million)

$403

$85

$64

$37

$35

$29

$18

$8

$1

ALEPPO

LATAKIA

AZAZ

SARMADA

JANDAIRIS

AFRIN

JABLEH

HAREM

AD-DANA

$-

$200

$400

Theestimateddamagesacrossthenineassessedcities

wereinAleppo(59.9percentoftotal),followedbyLatakia(12.2percentoftotal),Azaz(9.6percentoftotal),Sarmada(5.7percentoftotal),Jandairis(5.2percentoftotal),Afrin(3.3percentoftotal),Jableh(2.6percentoftotal),Harem(1.3percentoftotal)andAd-Dana(0.0percentoftotal).

TherecentearthquakeinNorthwestSyriahascausedextensivedamagesandlossesacrossdifferentareasofcontrol.Government-controlledareassufferedthemostsignificantimpact,withtotaldamagesandlossesestimatedatUS$2.8billion.TheAutonomousAdministrationofNorthandEastSyria(AANES)alsosufferedsignificantlossesatUS$1.3billion,whileopposition-controlledareasincurreddamagesandlossesofUS$1.2billion.

ReconstructionandrecoveryneedsforthesixassessedgovernoratesareestimatedatUS$7.9billion,withneedsinyear1andyears2–3estimatedatUS$3.7billionandUS$4.2billion,respectively.ThelargestneedspertaintoAgriculture(26.8percentoftotal),followedbyHousing(17.8percentoftotal),SocialProtection(16.3percentoftotal)andTransport(11.8percentoftotal).

Government-controlledareashavebeenidentifiedashavingthegreatestreconstructionandrecoveryneeds,estimatedatUS$4.5billion.Thisisfollowedbyopposition-controlledareaswithUS$2.1billionandareasunderthecontroloftheAANESwithUS$1.3billion.Thehigherreconstructionandrecoveryneedsingovernment-controlledareascanbeattributedtoseveralfactors,suchashigherpopulationdensityandbuilt-upareathusleadingtogreaterinfrastructuredamageandpublicservicedisruption.

Intheearlyrecoveryperiod(0-12months),effortsshouldaddressthemosturgentandimmediateneedsofaffectedcommunities,includingprovisionofemergencyshelterandrestorationofbasicservices,includingfood,water,andhealthservices.Simultaneouslywithearlyrecovery