英文行业资料 RAND-Data-Enabled Approaches for Enhancing the Air Force Transformational Capability Pipeline

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ResearchReport

MATTHEWWALSH,LANCEMENTHE,JONATHANL.BROSMER,JULIEGEORGE,

CHRISTINEKISTLERLACOSTE,ERICHASTINGS,SHERRILLLINGEL,ÉDERSOUSA

Data-EnabledApproaches

forEnhancingtheAir

ForceTransformational

CapabilityPipeline

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AboutThisReport

iii

TheAirForce2030ScienceandTechnology(S&T)Strategycallsforenhancedinvestmentintransformationaltechnologiestoenablenewwarfightingconceptswithleap-aheadcapabilities(DepartmentoftheAirForce[DAF],2019).Inresponse,theDAFhasdedicatedaportionof

theS&Tbudgettothetransformationalcomponentoftheportfolioandhascreatedthe

TransformationalCapabilitiesOffice(TCO)withintheAirForceResearchLaboratory(AFRL)tomanagetheseactivities.ThemissionoftheTCOistofostertransformationalcapabilities

acrossarangeofprograms.Akeyquestioninthisregardishowtoidentifyandevaluatethemostpromisingconcepts,andhowtodosoinadata-enhancedmanner.

Tothisend,theTCOaskedRANDProjectAIRFORCE(PAF)todevelopdata-enhanced

approachestoidentify,select,andpromotethemostpromisingconceptstofeedintothe

transformationalcapabilitypipeline.Inthisreport,weproposeahuman-centered,data-enhanced(HCDE)decisionmakingprocess.Theprocessisintendedtoanswerthequestionofwhich

technologiestodeveloptomeettheneedsofthecurrentandfutureforce.Theprocessis

especiallyrelevanttotheTCOgiventheTCO’smandatetobroadlyconsidercapabilitygapsandtechnologysolutions,yetelementsoftheprocesscanbeadoptedbyorganizationswithdifferentresponsibilities.Theprocessleveragesaprototypedatasciencetool,theSemanticClustering

AnalysisandThematicExplorationTool,forextractinginformationfromfree-textdatasources.Theprocessalsoleveragesacollectionoffuture-focusedtechniques,calledforesightmethods,thatallowhumanexpertstocombineinformationfromdatasources,alongwithdomainknowledgeandcreativity,toarriveatpotentialsolutions.WedemonstratetheHCDEprocessinthreecasestudiesinvolving(1)high-speedverticaltakeoffandlanding,(2)JointAll-DomainCommand

andControl,and(3)humancapitalmanagement.

TheresearchreportedherewascommissionedbytheAFRL’sTCO(AFRL/RS)andconductedwithintheForceModernizationandEmploymentProgramofPAFaspartofafiscalyear2021add-onproject,“Data-DrivenApproachesforAdvancingtheAirForceTransformational

CapabilityPipeline.”

RANDProjectAIRFORCE

PAF,adivisionoftheRANDCorporation,istheDAF’sfederallyfundedresearchanddevelopmentcenterforstudiesandanalyses,supportingboththeU.S.AirForceandtheU.S.SpaceForce.PAFprovidestheDAFwithindependentanalysesofpolicyalternatives

affectingthedevelopment,employment,combatreadiness,andsupportofcurrentandfutureair,space,andcyberforces.Researchisconductedinfourprograms:StrategyandDoctrine;Force

iv

ModernizationandEmployment;ResourceManagement;andWorkforce,Development,andHealth.TheresearchreportedherewaspreparedundercontractFA7014-16-D-1000.

AdditionalinformationaboutPAFisavailableonourwebsite:

/paf/

ThisreportdocumentsworkoriginallysharedwiththeDAFonDecember1,2021.Thedraftreport,issuedonOctober11,2021,wasreviewedbyformalpeerreviewersandDAFsubject

matterexperts.

Acknowledgments

WewouldliketothankChristopherRistich(thedirectoroftheAFRLTCO),andouractionofficers,DavidMyersandKathyBauman(AFRL/RS)fortheirassistanceandguidance.

Wealsothankthemanymilitarypersonnel,civilians,andstakeholderswhoseviews

informedtheresearchconductedforthisproject,andespeciallythoseintheAFRLAerospaceSystemsDirectorate;theAFRLAirmanSystemsDirectorate/711thHumanPerformanceWing;theAFRLCommander’sAcceleratedInitiativesOffice;theAFRLInformationDirectorate;theAFRLMaterialsandManufacturingDirectorate;theAFRLMunitionsDirectorate;theAFRLPlansandProgramsDirectorate;theAFRLSpaceVehiclesDirectorate;theAFRLTechnologyDirectorateAFWERX;theAFRLTCOleadsfortheWARTECHandExploreprograms;AirCombatCommand:Futures;AirCombatCommand:ScienceandTechnology;theAirForce

DirectorateofStudies,Analyses,andAssessments;theAirForceLifeCycleManagement

CenterArchitectureandIntegrationDirectorate;theAirForceTacticalExploitationofNationalCapabilitiesprogram;theDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyStrategicTechnologyOffice;theU.S.DepartmentofDefenseJointArtificialIntelligenceCenter,theMITRE

Corporation;theNationalAirandSpaceIntelligenceCenterGeospatialandSignatures

IntelligenceGroup;thePacificAirForces:ScienceandTechnology;thePacificAirForcesStrategicPlansDivision;RAND;RANDAustralia;U.S.ArmyResearchDevelopmentandEngineeringCommand;andtheU.S.ArmyResearchLaboratory.

Wethankourreviewers,ChadHeitzenraterandRaymondKuo,fortheirconstructive

feedbackonearlierversionsofthisreport.Finally,wethankthemanyotherRANDcolleagueswhohelpeduswiththiswork.Principally,butnotexclusively,wethankElizabethBodine-

Baron,JimChow,NatalieCrawford,FrankDelsing(ofthe2021RANDAirForceFellowsProgram),MiriamMatthews,LibbyMay,andChristopherMazerluft.

Summary

v

Issues

.AkeygoalfortheTransformationalCapabilitiesOffice(TCO)istofostertransformationalcapabilitiesacrossarangeofinitiatives.

.Topropose,develop,andselectwhichconceptstoadvanceintothetransformationalcapabilitypipeline,theTCOmustextractinformationfromdatacontainedacross

manytextsourcesthatreportcapabilitygapsandtechnologyprograms,andcombineitwithhumanexpertiseandcreativity.

.Machinelearning(ML)andnaturallanguageprocessing(NLP)canbeusedtoextractinformationfromtextsourcesoncapabilitygapsandtechnologysolutions.

.Subjectmatterexpertisemustalsobecapturedandleveragedeffectivelytoprovidecreativeinsightandmakebestuseoftheextractedinformation.

Approach

Tounderstandhowhuman-centered,data-enhanced(HCDE)decisionprocessescanbeusedtodeterminewhichconceptstoadvanceintothetransformationalcapabilitypipeline,weuseda

multimethodqualitativeapproachthatincludedareviewoftherelevantbodiesofliteratureondevelopmentplanning,alongwithinterviewswithseniorleaders,technicalexperts,andsubjectmatterexpertsfromtheDepartmentoftheAirForce(DAF)andtheU.S.DepartmentofDefense(DoD).ThesynthesisofouranalysisrevealedopportunitiesfortheTCOto(1)usedatasciencetoolstoextractinformationfromvastdatabasesofcapabilitygaps,capabilityneeds,and

technologysolutions;and(2)useamorediversesetoffuture-focuseddecisionmethods,calledforesightmethods,toleveragehumanexpertiseandcreativity.Wedevelopedandimplementedaproof-of-conceptsoftwaretool,theSemanticClusteringAnalysisandThematicExploration

Tool,toextractinformationfromfree-textdescriptionsofcapabilitygapsandtechnologies,andwecombinedthetoolwithforesightmethodsaspartofanHCDEdecisionmakingprocess.Wedemonstratethedatasciencetoolandforesightmethodsinthreecasestudiesinvolving(1)high-speedverticaltakeoffandlanding,(2)JointAll-DomainCommandandControl,and(3)humancapitalmanagement.

KeyFindings

.TheTCOhasanexceptionallybroadmandatethatincludesperformingopen-ended

searchesacrossoperationalcapabilitygapsandtechnologysolutions.ThiscallsfortoolsandmethodsdifferentfromthoseusedbyotherDAFandDoDorganizations.

.Somedatasourcesforcapabilitygapsarewidelyreferenced,buttheyarenotcentrallymanaged.Datasourcesforscienceandtechnology(S&T)solutionsarefarmorevariedanddiverse.Thevolumeofdatacontainedacrossthesesourcesisvast.

vi

.Nosoftwaretoolsaresystematicallyusedtoparse,extract,andsummarizethecontentofcapabilitygapandtechnologysolutionsources.

.Moderndatasciencetechniquescanbeusedtoextractinformationfromfree-textdescriptionscontainedinthesesources.

.Developmentplanningisahuman-centeredendeavorthatdependsondomainknowledge,creativity,andsocialnetworks.

.Foresightmethodscanbeusedtoleveragehumanexpertiseandcreativity.

.DatasciencetechniquesandforesightmethodscanbeintegratedtoformanHCDEdecisionmakingprocessthatinvolves

-usingdatasciencemethodstoextractaninitialsetofcapabilitygapsfromdatasourcesthatcontainformalguidanceand/oroperationalexperiences

-usinghuman-centeredmethodstoiteratetheselectionofcapabilitygapsandtoenrichtheirdescriptions

-usingdatasciencemethodstoextractaninitialsetoftechnologysolutionsfromS&Tsources

-reiteratingwithhuman-centeredmethodstodeterminethefinaltechnologysolutionsettobeproposed.

Recommendations

1.TheAFRLandtheTCOshouldusetheconceptdevelopmentandselectionprocessdescribedabove.

2.TheAFRLandtheTCOshoulduseasoftwaretool,liketheonedescribedinthisreport,toextractinformationfromnaturallanguagedatasources.Astheydoso,theyshould

conductusertestingandvalidationstudiestoimprovethesoftwaretool.

3.TheAFRLshouldexplorealternateNLPmethodstomaximizetheutilityofinformationextractedfromfree-textsources.

4.TheDAFshouldcurateandstandardizekeyoperationalcapabilitygapdatasources.

5.TheAFRL,theDAF,andtheTCOshouldenrichkeyS&Tdatasourcesbypurchasingordevelopingcapabilitiestocleanserecordsandmergethemwithmetadata.

6.TheTCOshouldexpandtheuseofcreative,interactive,expert-driven,andevidence-basedforesightmethods.

7.AsasteppingstonetoreachfullcurationandstandardizationofHCDEcapabilitydevelopmentplanning,theAFRLandtheTCOshouldrecordhuman-generatedtechnologypairingsforcapabilitygaps.

Contents

vii

AboutThisReport iii

Summary v

FiguresandTables ix

Chapter1.Introduction

1

StudyContext

2

AHuman-Centered,Data-EnhancedDecisionProcesstoInform

TransformationalConcepts

5

StudyMethodology

8

TheOrganizationofThisReport

9

Chapter2.Interviews

10

OrganizationalScope

11

IdentificationofCapabilityGaps

14

IdentificationofTechnologySolutions

15

TechnologyTransfer

17

ChapterSummary

19

Chapter3.AHuman-Centered,Data-EnhancedApproachtoIdentifyandPrioritize

TechnologyConcepts

20

ApplicationofanHCDEProcesstotheTransformationalCapabilitiesOffice

21

ChapterSummary

22

Chapter4.DataScienceMethodstoSupportanHCDEDecisionProcess

23

TheNaturalLanguageProcessingPath

24

UseofSCAnTExTtoEnableNaturalLanguageProcessing

29

ChapterSummary

35

Chapter5.ForesightMethodstoSupportanHCDEDecisionProcess

36

ForesightMethods

37

PlaybookofForesightMethodsfortheTransformationalCapabilitiesOffice

43

ChapterSummary

46

Chapter6.CaseStudies

47

CaseStudy1.High-SpeedVerticalTakeoffandLanding

47

CaseStudy2.JointAll-DomainCommandandControl

52

CaseStudy3.HumanCapitalManagement

55

ChapterSummary

59

Chapter7.FindingsandRecommendations

61

Recommendations

62

Conclusion

63

viii

AppendixA.InterviewProtocol

65

AppendixB.ForesightMethods

67

AppendixC.DataScienceMethods

75

AppendixD.SemanticClusteringAnalysisandtheThematicExplorationTool

83

Abbreviations

90

References

93

FiguresandTables

ix

Figures

Figure1.1.RelationshipsBetweenEnduring,Game-Changing/Disruptive,and

TransformationalTechnologies

4

Figure1.2.TheHuman-Centered,Data-EnhancedDecisionProcess

5

Figure1.3.StudyApproach

8

Figure2.1.TheConstrainedDecisionProcess:Problem-Focused

12

Figure2.2.TheConstrainedDecisionProcess:Solution-Focused

12

Figure3.1.TheCapabilityDevelopmentDecisionmakingProcess

20

Figure4.1.TheNaturalLanguageProcessingPath

24

Figure4.2.RelationshipsBetweenCapabilityGapSources

25

Figure4.3.RelationshipsBetweenScienceandTechnologySources

26

Figure4.4.ProgramElementSummaryintheDefenseBudget

28

Figure4.5.SCAnTExTTableofResultsforJLLISSearch

30

Figure4.6.NetworkVisualizationofJLLISData

32

Figure4.7.NetworkVisualizationofUnclassifiedCombatantCommandIntegrated

PriorityLists

33

Figure4.8.NetworkVisualizationofAFVenturesCompanyProfiles

34

Figure5.1.TheForesightDiamond

38

Figure5.2.StateValuesforTransformationalCapabilitiesOfficeInitiatives

40

Figure5.3.StateValuesforSelectForesightMethods

42

Figure5.4.ForesightPackagesforTransformationalCapabilitiesOfficeInitiatives

44

Figure6.1.RDT&EClustersRelatedtoVerticalTakeoffandLanding

50

Figure6.2.High-SpeedVerticalTakeoffandLandingTechnologiesbyCompany

andMaturity

51

Figure6.3.JointAll-DomainCommandandControlEnablers

53

Figure6.4.TheNumberofRecordsfromEachSourceRelatedtoKeyTechnologies

58

Figure7.1.TheGeneralApproachforHuman-Centered,Data-EnhancedDecisionmaking64

FigureC.1.BidirectionalEncoderRepresentationsfromTransformers

81

FigureD.1.SCAnTExTOverview

85

FigureD.2.SCAnTExTTableofResultsTabSearchbyText

86

FigureD.3.SCAnTExTTableofResultsTabSearchbyReferenceDataSetRecord

87

FigureD.4.SCAnTExTNetworkPlotTab

88

FigureD.5.SCAnTExTNetworkPlotTabSearchbyText

89

x

Tables

Table1.1.MajorTransformationalCapabilitiesOfficeInitiatives

2

Table2.1.OverviewofInterviewResponses

11

Table4.1.DataSources

27

Table5.1.DimensionsandStateValuesofForesightProblems

39

Table5.2.ApplicabilityofForesightMethodstoTransformationalCapabilities

OfficeInitiatives

43

Table6.1.AlignmentBetweenHigh-SpeedVerticalTakeoffandLandingMissionProfiles

andDataSources

48

Table6.2.High-SpeedVerticalTakeoffandLandingTechnologies

49

Table6.3.JointAll-DomainCommandandControlTechnologyEnablers

54

TableB.1.DescriptionsofForesightMethods

67

TableB.2.ConsiderationsforUseofForesightMethodsAlongMotivation,Driver,Scope,

Locus,andTimeHorizonDimensions

69

TableB.3.ConsiderationsforUseofForesightMethodsAlongPurpose,TargetUsers,

Participation,andStudyDurationDimensions

71

TableC.1.ModelClassificationResults

78

TableC.2.TopTermsThatCorrelatewithPredictedProbabilitiesintheSupportVector

MachineandGeneralLinearModels

78

TableC.3.TopFiveTopicsAmongAllDatabases

81

TableD.1.DataSourcesContainedinSCAnTExT

84

Chapter1.Introduction

1

MultipledevelopmentsintheglobalsecurityenvironmentarepromptingtheDepartmentoftheAirForce(DAF)andtheU.S.DepartmentofDefense(DoD)totakeactiontoguardthe

technologicalsuperiorityofU.S.militaryforces.First,astheDAFandDoDtransitionfrom

supportingmilitaryoperationsagainstnonstateactorstopreparingforgreat-powercompetition,capabilityneedsarechanging:Technologiesdevelopedtosupportlengthycounterinsurgency/counterterrorismoperationsinapermissiveenvironmentwillnotbesufficienttosupportrapidmajorcombatoperationsinadeniedenvironment.Second,great-powercompetitorsare

aggressivelymodernizingtheirair,space,andcybercapabilities.Third,manyoftoday’sscienceandtechnology(S&T)advancesoriginatefromoutsidetheDoDandareavailabletocompetitorsthroughtheglobalmarketplace.

Inresponsetothisnewstrategicenvironment,theDAFischanginghowitmanagesS&T.OneoftheprimaryobjectivesfortheAirForceS&Tenterprise,aslaidoutbytheformer

SecretaryoftheAirForce,HeatherWilson,intheAirForceScienceandTechnology2030

Strategy,isto“developanddelivertransformationalstrategiccapabilities.”ThisobjectivecallsfortheDAFtoallocateadedicatedportionoftheS&Tbudget(20percent)tothetransformationalcomponentoftheportfolio.Thetransformationalcomponentisfocusedonsystem-of-systemstechnologiestoenablenewwarfightingconcepts(DAF,2019,p.iii).

Inthefallof2019,theAirForcetechnologyexecutiveofficer(TEO)stoodupthe

TransformationalCapabilitiesOffice(TCO)withintheAirForceResearchLaboratory(AFRL)tomanagethetransformationalcomponentoftheDAFS&Tportfolio.Table1.1describessomeofthemajorinitiativesthattheTCOmanages.BoththeSeedlingsforDisruptiveCapabilitiesandtheExploreinitiativesestablishpathfinderstodiscover,assess,andmaturetransformational

capabilities.TheWARTECHinitiativeprovidesaforumforoperationalsubjectmatterexperts(SMEs)andtechnologiststopropose,validate,andrefinecapabilityrequirementsforfutureforcedesign.Finally,theVanguardinitiativeprovidesenterprisesupporttodevelopandtransitiona

limitednumberofhigh-prioritytransformationalcapabilitiestotheDAF.1

1TheVanguardinitiativereflectsanenterprise-widecommitmenttodeliveringcapabilitiesthattransformoperationsforfutureforces.TheinitialsetofVanguardprograms,asoutlinedintheS&T2030strategydocument(DAF,2019),includedSkyborg(forunmanned,low-costwingmen),GoldenHorde(fornetworked,precision-guidedweapons),andNTS-3(forimprovedposition,navigation,andtimingusingsoftwaredefinedradios);seeAFRL,undated.

AlthoughtheVanguardprogramsrepresentstrategicinvestments,theyconstituteonlyabout20percentofthecoreDAFS&Tbudgetallocatedtothetransformationalcomponent,withtheremaindergoingtoother6.2(applied

research)and6.3(advancedtechnologydevelopment)effortswithintheAFRLand6.3effortselsewherethroughouttheDAF(U.S.AirForceScientificAdvisoryBoard,2020).

2

Table1.1.MajorTransformationalCapabilitiesOfficeInitiatives

Initiatives

Description

Outcomes

SeedlingsforDisruptiveCapabilities

AFRL-initiated,cross-disciplinaryappliedresearchprogramstoadvanceinnovativesciencefor

transformationalcapabilities

Maturationofinnovativesciencetotransformationalcapabilities

Explore

Commercialmarketrequestsaccessibletoentirenationaltechnologyecosystemtodevelop

multidisciplinarysolutionsforfutureforcecapabilitychallenges

DAFbusinesscaseformarkettransformationalcapabilities

WARTECH

Continuousannualprocesstocodevelopproposals

withS&Tandoperationalcommunitiesfor

transformationalcapabilitiestoaddresscapabilityrequirementsderivedfromfutureforcedesign

conceptsandDAFstrategicguidance

Validatedandmatureconceptsforfutureforcetransformationalcapabilityneeds

Vanguard

AFWIC/AQR/PEO/TEO/userpartnershipstodevelopanddelivergame-changingcapabilitiestotransformDAFoperations

Proof-of-conceptandtransitionpreparationfortransformationalcapabilities

SOURCE:U.S.AirForceScientificAdvisoryBoard,2020.

NOTE:AFWIC=AirForceWarfighterIntegrationCapability;AQR=AirForceAcquisition:Science,technology,andEngineeringDirectorate;PEO=programexecutiveofficer.

TosupporttheobjectiveofdevelopinganddeliveringtransformationalstrategiccapabilitiestotheDAF,theTCOaskedRANDProjectAIRFORCEtorecommenddata-enhancedapproachestoidentify,select,andpromotethemostpromisingconceptstofeedatechnologypipelinethatenablesnewwarfightingconceptswithleap-ahead—ortransformational—capabilities.

Theresultingproposalforahuman-centered,data-enhanced(HCDE)decisionprocessishighlyrelevanttotheTCOgiventheTCO’smandatetobroadlyconsidercapabilitygaps(i.e.,statementsofcurrentorfutureoperationalortechnologyneeds)andtechnologysolutions.Byusingnaturallanguageprocessing(NLP)andmachinelearning(ML)toextractinformationfromfree-textdata,theHCDEdecisionprocessbroadenstheapertureofcapabilitygapsandtechnologysolutionsthattheTCOmayconsider.Theprocessisalsoresponsivetotheneedtoidentifytransformationaltechnologies.Byusingfuture-focusedforesightmethods,

HCDEleveragestheknowledgeandcreativityofhumanexpertstoarriveatinnovativeand

transformationalcapabilities.AlthoughtheprocessisespeciallyrelevanttotheTCO,other

organizationsresponsibleforidentifyingorprioritizingcapabilitygapsandtechnologysolutionsmaynonethelessbenefitfromusingelementsoftheprocess.

StudyContext

Thisstudyispositionedattheconvergenceofthemesrelatedtodevelopmentplanningandtransformationalcapabilities.

3

DevelopmentPlanning

Tomaintainair,space,andcybersuperiority,theDAFmustcontinuouslyupdateits

technologyinresponsetoevolvingthreatsandemergingopportunities.Insomecases,incrementaladjustmentsareenough;inothercases,transformationalchangeisneeded.Thelatterrequires

clearandspecificstrategicguidance,senior-leadersupport,highrisktolerance,researchand

development(R&D)investments,andtimelyandadaptableacquisitionprocesses.DevelopmentplanningisthesetofanalyticactivitiesthattheDAFusestoanticipate,prioritize,andpursue

R&DopportunitiesandtoacquirematerielcapabilitiestosupporttheNationalDefenseStrategy(NDS).2

TheDAFhasrecentlytakenstepstoinvigoratedevelopmentplanning.TheUSAFStrategicMasterPlanof2015emphasizeditsimportance,stating,“thecapabilitydevelopmentprocessitselfmustalsobecomemoreresponsive,adaptable,andagile”(DAF,2015).Tocreateamoreresponsivecapabilitydevelopmentprocess,theU.S.AirForce(USAF)establishedAirForceFuturestoconceptualizeandshapefutureforcedesignalongwiththeStrategicDevelopmentPlanningandExperimentationofficetoprovideanalyticsupportfordevelopmentplanning

(UnderSecretaryoftheAirForceandViceChiefofStaff,2017).Mo