清华能源讲座

Meeting

the

energy

andclimate

challenge:A

Tale

of

Two

Countries(1)

There

is

growing

competition

and

anxietyover

access

to

energy

resources.(2)

Our

long-term

economic

prosperity

is

tiedto

the

sustainable

use

of

energy.(3)

There

are

risks

of

adverse

climate

changefor

both

countries.Energy

ChallengeMillion

barrels

per

day196019701980199020002010251510

5

0ConsumptionProductionUS

became

a

net

oil

importer

in

the

1940s10

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

19508765432

China

became

a

net

oilimporter

in

the

1990sBoth

countries

are

now

importing

roughly

half

of

their

oil

204TemperatureRecord1850

–

2006IPCC

4th

climateassessment

(2007)The

Polar

Ice

Cap1979

–

2005

average

is

melting

much

faster

than

predicted

IPCC

model

predictionsSource:

Stroeve

et

al.

2007

and

updated

by

Dirk

Notz

HamburgPast

2000

years:1870

–

1890:1990

–

2008:0.0

-

.02

mm/year0.6

mm/year3.0mm/year(including

recent

satellite

data)Global

Sea

Level:

2007

IPCC

Technical

Summary

glaciers

in

northwest

China

have

shrunk

by

21%,

andare

receding

at

a

rate

of

10-

15

meters

per

year.China’s

glaciers

are

receding

rapidly

In

the

past

50

years

the

By

2050

China’s

western

glaciers

are

projected

to

decrease

by

27%.

Meltwater

from

glaciers

supplies

the

majority

of

freshwater

in

AsiaGangotri

Glacier,

Himalayas

near

China

China’s

National

Assessment

Report

on

Climate

Change

(II):

Climate

change

impacts

and

adaptation.

200718491935

19712000Cumulative

Glacier

Ice

MeltIn

45

years,

we

have

lost

over

9,000

cubic

km

of

ice.2007

IPCC

TechnicalSummaryAtmospheric

model

(red)with

natural

variations

andhuman

greenhouse

gasand

observations

(black)Atmospheric

model

(blue)with

only

natural

variationsand

observations

(black)The

change

is

caused

by

emission

of

greenhouse

gases1750,the

beginning

ofthe

industrialrevolution

Ice

Core

Data

of

CO2,

CH4,

N2O

andTemperature

(δD)

over

600,000

years.

550

ppm20,000

years

12

B.A.U.goes

offthe

slideCO2

Emissions

from

Energy

Consumption(Million

Metric

Tons

of

Carbon

Dioxide)1325,00020,00015,00010,00030,000200520001995199019851980

U.S.

and

China

CO2

Emissions:

42%

of

World

Total35,00042%

the

world5,000

0UnitedStates

ChinaRest

of14

Comparison

of

U.S.

and

China

Energy‐Related

Emissions

–

Three

Perspectivesmt

CO2emissions

calculated

using

1996

revision

of

IPCC

default

carbon

emission

factors;

commercial

fuels

only,

not

including

biomass.

Industry

also

accounts

for

the

majority

of

China’s

energy‐related

CO2

emissions4,0003,0002,0001,000

06,0005,0007,00020074,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

‐6,000

5,000

7,000

1980198319861989199219951998200120042007commercialresidentialtransportationindustry(PRC)(USA)Energy

Use

in

China

and

the

U.S.16If

the

world

follows

a

“Business-as-usual”

path,

what

do

climatemodels

predict

will

happen?17Days

above

90

degrees

FChicago:~

10

days

to

75

-90

daysgreater

than

90°

FSt.

Louis:~

45

days

to

~

120

days(1/3

of

the

year)18Projected

Increase

in

Heat-Related

Deathsin

Chicago10x

increasein

heat

-relateddeathsCOMPUTATIONALRESEARCHDIVISIONExtreme

heat

waves

will

become

common

in

China

Extreme

heat

waves

that

currently

happen

every

20

years

would

occur

every

other

year

in

much

of

ChinaNumber

of

years

between

extreme

heat

waves

by

2100

under

business-as-usual

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Annual

SavingsEnergy

efficiency

and

conservation

in

buildings

100

Mtce(2.8

Quads)Oil

conservation

and

substitution

38

Mt

of

oil

=

54.3

Mtce(1.5

Quads)Renovation

of

coal‐fired

industrial

boilers

50

Mtce(1.4

Quads)District

level

combined

heat

and

power

projects

35

Mtce(1

Quad)Energy‐efficient

lighting

29

TWh=

3.56

Mtce(0.1

Quads)Motor

system

energy

efficiency

20

TWh=

2.46

Mtce(0.07

Quads)Waste

heat

and

pressure

utilization

1.35

Mtce(0.04

Quads)Energy

systems

optimization

Not

specifiedGovernment

procurement

of

energy

efficiency

products

Not

specifiedMonitoring

and

evaluation

systems

Not

specifiedTotal>250

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