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专题一财务报表分析与业绩评价专题一财务报表分析与业绩评价Part1123456789abilitytopayshort-termcontingentcapitalstructurekeysparebusinessdirectlyfinancialoperatingfinancialoperatingfinancialCashFlowtoEquity(FCFE)CashFlowtotheFirm(FCFF)debtcashnetoperatinggrosspre-afterReturnoninvestment投资 EconomicvalueaddedDepartmentalreturnon部门投资Operatingnetprofitafter-After-taxinterestWeightedaveragecostofcapitalbasedmarketDisclosedeconomic把单词记在上Part2PurposeofFinancialStatementThepurposeoffinancialstatementysisistoconvertfinancialstatementdatatousefulinformation,inordertohelpfinancialstatementuserstoimproveMethodofcomparativecomparingwiththehistoryofourcomparingwiththecompanieswiththesamecomparingwiththenningorMethodoffactorserialsubstitutiongapLimitationoffinancialstatementitselfTheproblemofreliabilityoffinancialstatementsTheproblemofbasisofShort-termpayingLong-termProfitabilityOperatingCurrentAssettoNetprofitARturnoverQuickLong-termdebtcapitalNetprofitonInventoryCashDebttoNetprofitCurrentturnoverCashflowEquityNoncurrentturnoverWorkingWorkingturnoverInterestysisof’sabilitytopayshort-termSinglefinancialratioysis:thehigherindicatorsmeantheenhancedshort-termdebtpayingability.Currentratio=currentassets/current1Thereisnouniformorstandard2CurrentratioisaroughestimateQuickratio=quickassets/currentliabilities×100%=(monetaryfund+tradingfinancialassets+allaccountsreceivable)/currentliabilities×100%11Thequickratiocanbemoreaccurateandreliableinmeasuringtheofanenterprisetopayshort-termdebtanditsliquiditythanthecurrent2Theliquidityofaccountsreceivableistheimportantfactor,influencesthecredibilityofthequickCashflowratio=netoperatingcashflow/currentCashflowratiodirectlyreflectstheabilityofthetomeetitsshort-termobligationsbasedoncashgeneratedinthenormalcourseofbusiness.Working=currentassets-current=long-termcapital-long-termWorkingcapitalisanabsolutevalue,whichisdifficulttobeusedforcomparingdifferenthistoricalperiodsanddifferentcompanies.Thereasonablenessofworkingcapitalisprimarilyevaluatedthroughshort-termdebtratio.Thehighercurrentratiomaynotmeantheenhancementoftheshort-debtpayingability,andviceversa.However,severalotherratiosgiveysisoffurtherinformation,amongwhicharetheinventoryturnoverratio,accountsreceivableturnoverratio,quickratio,cashratio,cashflowratio,etc.Thefactorswhichenhancetheshort-termdebtpayingability:availablebankloan,non-currentassetsconvertibletocash,reputationofdebt–payingability.Thefactorswhichreducetheshort-termdebtpayingability:thecontingentliabilitiesrelatedtodebtguaranteeagreedpaymentspecifiedintheoperatingleasingSolvency-theysisofenterpriseabilitytopaylong-term财务结构分析:FinancialstructureAssettoliabilityratio=totalliabilities/totalDebttoequityratio=totalEquitymultiplier=totalassets/equity×100%=1+debttoequityratio=1/(1-assettoliabilityratio)从资本结构分析:Capitalstructure=非流动负债/(非流动负债+股东权益)×100%Long-termdebttocapitalratio=non-currentliabilities/long-termcapital=non-currentliabilities(non-currentliabilities+equity)100%ysisofsolvencyfrom eInterestcoverage=Earningsbeforeinterestandtax(EBIT)/interestEarningsbeforeinterestandtax=totalprofits+interestexpenses=netprofits+etax+interestexpensesysisofsolvencyfromthecashflowInterestcoverageratiobasedoncash=cashflowfromoperatingactivities/interestOperatingcapacityandassetprofitabilityKeyindicator:Netreturnontotal:Netreturnontotal=netprofits/averagetotal=netprofitmargin×totalassetsturnoverNetprofitmarginysis:shouldyzegrossprofitmarginandthepercentageofperiodexpenses总资产周转率分析TotalassetturnoverratioAccountsreceivableAccountsreceivableturnover=salesrevenue/accountInventoryInventoryturnover=salesrevenue(costofsales)/averageNon-currentassetsNon-currentassetsturnover=salesrevenue/non-currentWorkingcapitalWorkingcapitalturnover=salesrevenue÷workingCurrentCurrentassetsturnover=salesrevenue/currentTotalassets=Totalassetsturnover=salesrevenue/total(四)综合能力分析——杜邦分析体系DuPont 比率:权益净利率Keyratio:ReturnonequityNetreturnon=netreturnontotalassets×equity=netprofitmargin×totalassetsturnoverratio×equityNetprofitmarginandtotalassetsturnoveraresecondaryindicators,whichcanreflecta ’sbusinessstrategy.Theequitymultipliercanreflectthe’sfinancialSomecompanies’netprofitmarginandtotalassetsturnoverratiomovementareinoppositedirection,whichalsoappliestomovementofnetreturnontotalassetsandfinancialleverage,socompaniesmustmatchitsbusinessstrategywithitsfinancial传统杜邦分析体系的局限性(Thelimitationoftraditionalysis)“Totalassets’and‘netprofit’arenotmatchedincalculatingthenetprofitmargin;Theprofits(orlosses)fromoperatingactivitiesarenotdifferentiatedtheprofits(orlosses)fromfinancialThefinancialliabilitiesarenotdistinguishedfromtheoperating120142013 利润表项 Quickratio=quickasset/currentInevaluationoftheshort-termsolvencyofB,therealizabilityofaccountsreceivableshallbeconsidered.Bcalculatesandwithdrawsthebaddebtreservesat5%ofthebalanceoftheaccountsreceivable.2013账龄10%,实际坏账很可能比计提的Attheendof2013,theaccountsreceivablewithageofmorethan3yearshadaccountedfor10%ofthebalanceoftheaccountsreceivable.Probably,theactualbaddebtsexceedthecalculatedandwithdrawnbaddebtreserves,reducingtheshort-termsolvencyofB.乙公司的生产经营存在季节性,报表上的应收账款金额平均水平,即使使用年末和年TheproductionandoperationofBhaveseasonalcharacteristics.So,theamountoftheaccountsreceivableunderthestatementwillnotreflecttheaveragelevel.Eventhoughtheaccountsreceivablearecalculatedbasedonthemeanvalueofyear-endamountandtheyear-beginningamount,itisstillimpossibletoeliminatetheparticularityoftheyear-enddataoftheenterprisesengaginginseasonableproductionactivities.Attheendoftheyear,Bisintheoffseason,andtheaccountsreceivableandthecurrentliabilitiesarelowerthantheaveragelevel.Tothisregard,thecalculationresultsmightnotreflecttheshort-termsolvencyofB利息保障倍数=息税前利润/利息费用=(97.5+32.5+500)/(500+100)=1.05Interestcoverageratio=earingsbeforeinterestandtax(EBIT)/interestexpense=(97.5+乙公司的利息保障倍数略大于1,说明自身产生的经营收益勉强可以支持现有的规模。由TheinterestcoverageratioofBismorethan1,indicatingthatthe eofBcouldjustsupporttheexistingdebts.Astheearningsbeforeinterestandtax(EBIT)areunstableduetoinfluenceofoperatingrisks,buttheinterestexpendituresarefixed,thelong-termsolvencyofBisstillAccountsreceivableturnover=salesrevenue/averagebalanceofaccounts乙公司的生产经营存在季节性,报表上的应收账款金额平均水平,即使使用年末和年DuetotheseasonablecharacteristicsofB’sproductionandoperation,theamountoftheaccountsreceivableunderthestatementcannotreflecttheaveragelevel.Eventhoughsuchaccountsreceivablearecalculatedbasedonthemeanvalueoftheyear-endamountandtheyear-beginningamount,itisstillimpossibletoeliminatetheparticularityoftheyear-enddataoftheenterprisesengaginginseasonableproductionactivities.Attheendoftheyear,Bisintheoffseason,thebalanceoftheaccountsreceivableislowerthantheaveragelevel.Thus,thecalculationresultswilloverestimatetherealizationspeedoftheaccountsreceivable.Accountsreceivableturnovershallbecalculatedbasedonthecreditsales.Asitisimpossibletoobtainthecreditsalesdata,andaccountsreceivableturnoveriscalculatedbasedonthesalesrevenue,theaccountsreceivableturnoverwillbeoverIn2013,Bhasreducedtheproportionofthecustomerssubjecttocreditsales,andincreasedtheproportionofcashsale,whichwillfurtheroverestimatetherealizationspeedoftheaccountsreceivable.Question1.如果我们把使用比率分析法的人分为短期人、长期人和股东,每一组人对哪种财务比率更感?Answer1:(1)Short-termbecausetheirconcerniswiththefirm'sabilitytopayshort-termobligationsastheycomedue.Long-termlenders–leveragebecausetheyareconcernedwiththerelationshipofdebttototalassets.Theyalsowillexamineprofitabilitytoinsurethatinterestpaymentscanbemade.长期人关心的是杠杆指标,因为他们关注与总资产之间的关系。他们还会检查企业的Stockholders–profitability,withsecondaryconsiderationgiventodebtutilization,liquidity,andotherratios.Sincestockholdersaretheultimateownersofthefirm,theyareprimarilyconcernedwithprofitsorthereturnontheir股东关心性指标,其次才考虑的使用效率,流动性以及其他比率。由于股东是公司的Answer2:Iftheaccountsreceivableturnoverratiodecreases,accountsreceivablewillbeonthebooksforalongerperiodoftime.Thismeansthattheaveragecollectionperiodwillincrease.营运能力和能综 Part2ManagerialbalanceFundamentalAssets=operatingassets+financial=(currentoperatingassets+long-termoperatingassets)+financialLiabilities=operatingliabilities+financial=(currentoperatingliabilities+long-termoperatingliabilities)financialNetoperating=operatingassets-operating=(currentoperatingassets+long-termoperatingassets)-(currentoperatingliabilities+long-termoperatingliabilities)=(currentoperatingassets-currentoperatingliabilities)+(long-termoperatingassets-long-termoperatingliabilities)=operatingworkingcapital+netlong-termoperatingNetfinancialliabilities=financialliabilities-financialassets=netNetoperatingassets=netliabilities+shareholders'equity=netinvestment estatementFundamentalformula=Netprofit=operatingprofitorloss+financialprofitorloss=after-taxoperatingprofit-after-taxinterestexpenses=Pre-taxoperating etaxrate)-interest etaxPre-taxoperatingprofit=totalprofits+interestInterestexpenses=financialexpenses+lossesonfairvaluechangeinasset(-gains)+investmentlossesonfinancialasset(-gains)+lossesonfinancialassetimpairmentManagerialcashflowcashflowtothefirm=after-taxnetoperatingprofit-netincreaseinoperatingworkingcapital-increaseinnetoperatinglong-termasset=(after-taxnetoperatingprofit+depreciationandamortization)(increaseinoperatingworkingcapital+capital=Grossoperatingcashflow-totalinvestmentsinnetoperating=Grossoperatingcashflow-(netincreaseinoperatingworkingcapital+increaseinlong-termnetoperatingassets+depreciationandamortization)=Netoperatingcashflow-(increaseinlong-termnetoperatingassetsdepreciationand=Netoperatingcashflow-totalinvestmentsonnetoperatinglong-term=After-taxoperatingprofits-(netincreaseinoperatingworkingcapital+increaseinlong-termnetoperatingassets)=Netoperatingprofitaftertax-increaseinnetoperating=Netoperatingprofitaftertax-netinvestmentsincurrent=Debtcash cashflowtoNetinvestmentsincurrent=Increaseinnetoperating=Netinvestmentsonnetoperating=Netincreaseinoperatingworkingcapital+increaseinlong-termnetoperating=Capitalexpenditure-depreciationandamortization+increaseinworkingCapitalexpenditure=Increaseinnetlong-termoperatingassets+DepreciationandamortizationDebtcashflow=After-taxinterestexpenses-increaseinnetEquitycashflows=Dividendpayout-netincreaseinequity=FCFF-debtcash=(After-taxnetoperatingprofit-netinvestmentsincurrentyear)-(after-taxinterestexpenses-increaseinnetdebt)=Netprofit-netinvestmentsincurrentyear+increaseinnet=Netprofit-increaseinshareholders’=Netprofit-netinvestmentsincurrentyear×(1-debt润-(1-负债率)×本年净投资Ifafinancesitsactivitiesatafixeddebtratio(netdebt/netoperatingassets),thenequitycashflow=netprofit-(1-debtratio)×netinvestmentsincurrentyear【5.201120102011(以百分数表Englishanswer:Netoperatingassetprofitmargin=294/2100×100%=14%Interestrateaftertax=36/600×100%=6%Operatingdifferentialrate=14%-Leveragecontributingratio=8%×(600/1500)=3.2%Rateofreturnonequity=14%+3.2%=17.2%Netoperatingassetprofitmargin=495/3300×100%=15%Interestrateaftertax=45/900×100%=5%Operatingdifferentialrate=15%-Leveragecontributingratio=10%×(900/2400)=3.75%Rateofreturnonequity=15%+3.75%=18.75%(2)Recementofnetoperatingassetprofitmargin,15%+(15%-Recementofinterestrateaftertax:15%+(15%-5%)×(600/1500)=19%Recementofnetfinancialleverage:15%+(15%-5%)×(900/2400)=18.75%Theeffectofrateofreturnonequityduetotheincreaseinnetoperatingassetprofitmargin=18.6%*17.2%=1.4%TheeffectofrateofreturnonequityduetothedecreaseininterestrateafterTheeffectofrateofreturnonequityduetothedecreaseinnetfinancialRateofreturnonequity(2011)-rateofreturnonequity(2012)=18.75%-1.4%,税后利息率下降使得权益净利20101.55%。Aboveall,theincreaseofnetoperatingassetprofitmarginmakesa1.4%riseinrateofreturnonequity,thedecreaseofinterestrateaftertaxmakesa0.4%declineinrateofreturnonequity,andthedecreaseofnetfinancialleveragemakesadeclineinrateofreturnonequity.Theoveralleffectmakestherateofreturnonequityincreaseby1.55%in2011comparedin2010.2012=23.18%(3)30%=netoperationassetprofitmargin+(netoperatingassetprofitmarginWegetnetoperatingassetprofitmarginin2012=23.18%Operatingprofitmarginaftertaxin2012=23.18%/2.5=9.27%Operatingprofitmarginaftertaxisrequiredtobeat9.27%inordertoachievethetargetof30%rateofreturnonequity.Operatingdifferenceraterepresentsthenetprofitsincreasedarisingfromtheborrowingof1Yuandebtcapitalandtheninvestmentinoperatingassets,whichisoneoftheimportantbasestomeasurewhethertheborrowingisreasonable.Iftheoperatingdifferencerateispositive,theborrowingwillincreaseshareholderreturns(i.e.,increasenetprofits);andiftheoperatingdifferencerateisnegative,theborrowingwillreduceshareholderreturns.Fromtheviewofincreasingshareholderreturns,t
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