太阳能行业前景展望

1SolarEnergyIndustryForecast:

PerspectivesonU.S.SolarMarketTrajectoryMay27,2021UnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergy

SolarEnergyTechnologiesProgram

22Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarketinvestmentsinsolarSolarphotovoltaic(PV)sectoroverviewPVpricesandcostsPVmarketevolutionMarketevolutionconsiderationsBalanceofsystemcostsSilicon‘normalization’SolarsystemvaluedriversSolarmarketforecastAdditionalresourcesAgenda33Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarketinvestmentsinsolarSolarphotovoltaic(PV)sectoroverviewPVpricesandcostsPVmarketevolutionMarketevolutionconsiderationsBalanceofsystemcostsSilicon‘normalization’SolarsystemvaluedriversSolarmarketforecastAdditionalresourcesAgenda4Today’sU.S.ElectricityCostLandscapeEIAshowshistoricnationalaverageretailelectricitypricesoutpacinginflationby~1.2%ConservativeforecastsfromtheEnergyInformationAgency(EIA)showresidentialelectricitypricesreaching12c/kWhby2021EIAforecastsaregoodbaselines,butaregenerallyconservativeastheyarebasedonhistoricaldatawithoutrecentmovementinsupply/demandbalances52008E11.552009E12.092010E12.662011E13.262012E13.882013E14.532014E15.212015E15.93U.S.NationalElectricityPriceForecastApplyingthesameconservative4.7%inflationaryrate,averageUSelectricitypriceswillreach16c/kWhby2021Ratesinsomestateswillbehigher,withCTelectricitypricesforecasttoreach27c/kWhin2021bythesamelogic*Estimatesc/kWhSolarisalreadycostcompetitiveinsomestatestodayandwillbeinmanymoreincomingyearsasenergypricesincreasenationwideYear*6InstalledsystemcostrangeshaveimplicationsforlevelizedcostofenergyCommercial/utilityscalePVsystemsarecurrentlyeconomicallycompetitivewithgridelectricitypricesinmanyareasBothresidentialandcommercialsystemswillbelessexpensivethatgridelectricityby2021,assumingthatthe4.7%annualgrowthratecontinuesSolarmarketpenetrationiscreatedbythelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)overthelifetimeofthesolarsystemvs.gridelectricitypricesandgovernment/utilityincentivesResidentialInstallationsCommercialInstallationsCoalpriceshavenearlytripledoverthepastfiveyearsCoalpowerplantsfaceincreasingprojectuncertaintyduetocarbonandsitingconcerns7TraditionalgenerationsourcesfacehurdlesevenasdemandgrowsCoalandnaturalgaspricesareincreasingatmuchfasterratesthan4.7%peryear,whilenuclearfacesregulatory,financingandsitingissues.$/shorttonSource:Simmons&Co.Source:Simmons&Co.NaturalgaspriceshavemorethandoubledduringthesametimeperiodNuclearindustrygroupsestimatethenextgenerationnuclearplantswillnotbeonlineuntil2021Non-nucleargenerationadditionsof386GWarerequiredpriorto2021tomeetanticipatedU.S.electricitydemand8MostforecastsdonottakeintoaccountthesehurdlesEIArecognizes

thatnonuclearwillenterthegenerationmixinthenextfiveyearsHowever,EIAforecastsincludesubstantialcoalandnaturalgasgenerationcapacityadditions.Coaladditionsaredifficultintoday’sregulatoryandconsumermarket.CoalplantsarebeingcancelledandCCStechnologyisbeingdelayedAdditionalcoalgenerationfacesfinancinguncertaintyduetothepoliticalriskofmandatorycarbonvalues.9Thepoliticalclimateispushinginthesamedirectionaselectricitymarketeconomics“Energysecurityandclimatechangearetwoofthegreatchallengesofourtime.〞-PresidentBush,

MajorEconomiesMeeting,September2007“…proposalsthatwillallowAmericatoleadtheworldincombatingglobalclimatechange…tohelpdevelopanddeploythenextgenerationofenergythatwillallowustobuildthenextgeneration’seconomy.〞-SenatorBarackObama,

Portsmouth,NH,October2007“…thefundamentalincentivesofthemarketarestillonthesideofcarbonbasedenergy.Thishastochange...〞-SenatorJohnMcCain,

Arlington,VA,May2021“…moveusfromacarbonbasedeconomytoanefficient,greeneconomybyunleashingawaveofprivate-sectorinnovationincleanenergy…〞-SenatorHillaryRodhamClinton,

CedarRapids,IANovember20071010Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarketinvestmentsinsolarSolarphotovoltaic(PV)sectoroverviewPVpricesandcostsPVmarketevolutionMarketevolutionconsiderationsBalanceofsystemcostsSilicon‘normalization’SolarsystemvaluedriversSolarmarketforecastAdditionalresourcesAgenda11ThePresident’sSolarAmericaInitiative(SAI)drivesFederalwork.Achievegridparityforsolarelectricityfromphotovoltaicsacrossallmarketsectorsby2021.12InthenextyearsoftheSAI,theDOE’sSolarProgramwillfocusonachievingprice-parityandscaleforsolarelectricitygenerationfrombothPVandCSPPVprogramwilltarget>30%marketshareforannualnewcapacityadditions,

CSPprogramwilltargetbaseloadprice/dispatchabilityandGW-scale.12ConcentratingSolarPower(CSP)Photovoltaics(PV)DistributedGeneration,

on-siteornearpointofuseCentralizedGeneration,

largeusersorutilities13Genesisoftheinitiative:1414SAIworksalongthewholeRDD&Dpipeline1515SAIhasmanystrongpartnerships.16SolarAmericaInitiativemap:17SolarAmericaCitiesDOE’sSolarAmericaCitieswilldevelopspecificlocalsolarinfrastructureanddeploymentplanstoprovidemodelsforothersimilarlysituatedlocalities18FundingfortheSolarAmericaInitiativewillacceleratesupplygrowth&adoptionofPV/CSPtechnologiesTheSAIisintendedtorealizethefullvalueof30-yearsofRD&D

withamajorcleanenergysource.SolarEnergyTechnologiesFunding,FY01–FY09IncreaseforSAI18

FundingisissuedthroughcompetitivegrantstoLabs,Industry,University,Municipalities1919Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarketinvestmentsinsolarSolarphotovoltaic(PV)sectoroverviewPVpricesandcostsPVmarketevolutionMarketevolutionconsiderationsBalanceofsystemcostsSilicon‘normalization’SolarsystemvaluedriversSolarmarketforecastAdditionalresourcesAgenda20Technologyandbusinessinnovationstimulatespublicandprivateinvestment,whichcommencesavirtuouscycleofmarketexpansionInordertoachieveSAIgoals;solarinvestorsandcompaniesmustexecuteandperpetuatethiscyclePolicysupportsareonlyinplaceforalimitedduration,andtherecentrapidexpansionofinvestmentinsolarismaximizingtheutilityoftheseincentiveswhiletheylastMoremature,largermarketsemergefromtheendoftheearlymarkethypergrowthstage21Globalinvestmentinsolarcompanieshasgrownexponentially,andthatgrowthisexpectedtocontinueDespiteapullbackinsharepricesofpublicequities,solarcompanieshavecontinuedtoraisesignificantcapitalthroughoutQ12021.22VenturecapitalandprivateequityinvestmentshavecreatednewcompaniesandcapacityexpansionsIn2007,capacityexpansions(privateequityinvestments)dominatedintheEU,whiletheU.S.venturecommunitydramaticallyrampedupfundingofstart-ups23Venturecapitaldealflowhasexpanded,includingincreasesindealsizeandvolumeAscompanieshavematured,andventureinvestorshaverecognizedthelongertimeperiodrequiredforenergyinvestments,dealsizehasincreasedVentureroundgrowthfrom2005through2007showssignificantincreasesinfirstandsecondrounddeals,showingthatthemarketfornewsolarinnovationshasnotbeensated24PrivateinvestmentsbysolartechnologytypeshowsignificantregionalvariancesandspecializationsRegionalpatternsofinvestmentarelikelytochangeasnewertechnologiesmatureandaremigratedtolowercostmanufacturingcenters25ManyU.S.solarcompaniesaremakingsignificantcostandqualityimprovementstotheirtechnologiesDOEandthesecompanies’investorsbelievethatmanyoftheirtechnologieswillreach‘gridparity’by2021orsooner.Allofthesecompaniesarepursing‘gridparity’oreconomiccompetitiveness.Manyfirmscalculate‘gridparity’withapproximately10c/kWhelectricitycalculatedoverthelifeofthesolarsystem.2626Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarketinvestmentsinsolarSolarphotovoltaic(PV)sectoroverviewPVpricesandcostsPVmarketevolutionMarketevolutionconsiderationsBalanceofsystemcostsSilicon‘normalization’SolarsystemvaluedriversSolarmarketforecastAdditionalresourcesAgenda27Experienceshowsthatassolarmanufacturingincreases,modulecostsarereducedsignificantlySource:HistoricalDatafromNavigant(2007).28But,themoduleisnotallofthecost-DOESAIindustrypartnerinstalledsystemcostprojectionsEstablishedsolarmanufacturersarerealizingcostreductionsacrossthevaluechainandwillreduceinstalledsystemcostbyapproximately50%by2021Notethehighlevelofindirectandlaborcosts-thesearedrivenbyregulatory,educationalandfinancinghurdles(non-R&D).2005$perwattinstalled2005$perwattinstalled29Marketpenetrationbegins-2007residentialPVandelectricitypricedifferenceswithexistingincentivesCurrentlyPVisfinanciallycompeititivewherethereissomecombinationofhighelectricityprices,excellentsunshineand/orstate/localincentives.30Solaraccelerationinaconservativeforecast-2021residentialwithoutincentivesandmoderateincreaseinelectricitypricesAttractiveinabout250of1,000largestutilities,whichprovide~37%ofU.S.residentialelectricitysales.85%ofsales(innearly870utilities)areprojectedtohaveapricedifferenceoflessthan5¢/kWhbetweenPVandgridelectricity.Inlargeareas,PVischeaperthangridelectricity312021residentialinstallationswithoutincentivesandaggressiveincreaseinelectricitypricesAttractiveinabout450of1,000largestutilities,whichprovide~50%ofU.S.residentialelectricitysales.91%ofsales(innearly950utilities)haveapricedifferenceoflessthan5¢/kWhbetweenPVandgridelectricity.AcrossmostofthehighestU.S.populationareas,PVischeaperthangridelectricity.3232Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarketinvestmentsinsolarSolarphotovoltaic(PV)sectoroverviewPVpricesandcostsPVmarketevolutionMarketevolutionconsiderationsBalanceofsystemcostsSilicon‘normalization’SolarsystemvaluedriversSolarmarketforecastAdditionalresourcesAgenda33Balanceofsystem/installationcostswillfallaspolicybecomesmoresolarfriendlyState/localgovernmentsandutilitiescanhavemajorimpactsonthelocalpriceofsolarelectricitybyimpactinginstallationcosts

Solarproductionisglobalbuteveryinstallationislocal

CostperwattinstalledState/localgovernmentsandutilitiescanpromotesolarby:streamliningsolarpermittingfacilitatinginterconnectiontothegridestablishingsolar-friendlynetmeteringregulationsbanninghomeownerassociationrestrictionsagainstsolarestablishinginstallerandcodeofficialtrainingcentersatcommunitycollegesofferingtaxincentives(sales,income,property)tosolarpurchaserscreatingpublicoutreachandinformationcampaigns34Arecentshortageinsilicon,amajorPVfeedstock,hasdrivenupthecostofPVoverthepastfewyears.GeneroussubsidyprogramsinEuropehavepushedupworldwidesolardemandandcausedpricestoriseoverthepastfewyearsLargeamountsofnewsiliconproductionarecomingonlineinthenextyear.EstablishedsiliconmanufacturingcompanieslikeCypressSemiconductor,AppliedMaterials,Hemlock,WackerChemie,andMEMCElectronicDevicesareexpandingrapidlyintotheindustryTheDOESolarProgrambelievesthistobeashort-termproblemthatwillbealleviatedby2021.Ifrobustpolicyisinplacewhenthesiliconshortageends,andcostandpricereturnto‘normal’levels,largenumbersofeconomicalPVinstallationswilloccur3535Energymarkets/forecastsDOESolarAmericaInitiativeoverviewCapitalmarket