GFK-后疫情时代全球TV市场需求预测（英文）-2021.5-27正式版

GlobalTVMarketDemandForecastinPostCOVIDEra

©GfK2021 1

GlobalDemand

©GfK2021 2

2021LCDdemandoutlook:215.0munits-8.2%y/y

y/ydeclinesareexpectedinmostdevelopedregionsin2021,followingstrongdemandin2020aslockdownsclosedsocialvenues,whilstallowingshopping

tocontinue,resultedinincreasedTVviewership&TVpurchasing;

Emergingmarketsarenegativelyimpactedbyhighpanelpricing,limitinglow-endunitpurchasingandnegativeeconomicimpactsofCOVID;

GlobalTVUnitSell-outbyTechnology

300m

259m,-6.1%252m,-2.6%253m,+0.5%

LCD

PDP

CRT

OLED

LCDy/y

250m

240m,-5.4%

239m,+6.5%

+5.4%

230m,+4.4%

+5.1%

229m,-4.4%

227m,+3.0%

224m,-1.3%

229m,-0.8%229m,+0.2%

221m,-3.7%

221m,-7.6%

+3.8%

+6.2%

+2.9%

200m

-0.1%

-1.2%

-1.1%

-1.2%

-1.3%

150m

-2.7%

-2.9%

232.3m

234.2m

226.0m

223.4m

223.1m

223.2m

220.5m

220.6m

220.7m

220.5m

216.9m

215.0m

100m

209.8m

-8.2%

50m

0m

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021F

2022F

2023F

2024F

©GfK2021

3

2021LCDAvg.SizeOutlook:49.3”(+1.2”y/y)

Mixofmajorsizesegments:

32”20.2%(-2.2ppsy/y);43”14.7%(+1.2ppsy/y);50”11.6%(+1.3ppsy/y)

55”14.0%(+1.1ppsy/y);65”7.7%(+1.4ppsy/y);≥75”5.5%(+1.1ppsy/y)

GlobalLCDTVaveragesize,areaandunit,y/y

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Unity/y

Areay/y

Avg.Size

51.6''

53''

51.1''

50.5''

51''

+14.3%

49.3''

49''

48.1''

+8.7%

+8.8%

+8.3%

46.4''

47''

+6.4%

+6.2%

44.7''

45''

1%

+3.8%

+3.

+2.9%

43.6''

+1.4%

+1.6%

42.3''

43''

-0.1%

-1.2%

-1.1%

-1.2%

41''

-2.9%

-3.6%

39''

-8.2%

37''

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021F

2022F

2023F

2024F

©GfK2021 4

InventoryChangeIndex

©GfK2021 5

GlobalLCDTVPanels

©GfK2021 6

RegionalDemand

©GfK2021 7

L.AmericaLCDDemand:L.Americaisexpectedtogrowin2Q21duetoheavynegativitycausedbylockdownsin2020acrosstheregion,offsetbypartiallockdownsin2021asCOVIDcontinuestoheavilynegativelyimpactcountriese.g.Brazil;In2H21,thenegativeeconomicimpactduetoCOVIDandpoliticalprotestsinColombiaareexpectedtoresultinsofteningdemandex-BlackFriday(OCT-21);Further,thehighcomponentpriceforceslow-endTVpricingup,low-enddemandisexpectedtoaggressivelysofteny/y;

L.AmericaLCDTVUnits

+1.4%⇒-6.7%

America

L.America2019

LCDDemand

Argentina

6%

Other

37%

Brazil

39%

Peru

5%Colombia Chile

8% 5%

©GfK2021

2019 2020 2021-Current

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

8

L.AmericaLCDSizeMigration&ASP

Highmixof32/43”segmentsandlow-endmodelsduetolowpurchasingpower;

NegativeeconomicsituationhasresultedinincreaseinTVpricing,forcingconsumerstooptformore32/43”&paymoretodoso,esp.inArgentina,resultinginsoftersizemigrationin2021except4Q21promotions;

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

L.AmericaLCDDemandSizeMix

60"-69"

55"-59"

50"-54"

45"-49"

40"-44"

30"-34"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

49''

48''

47''

46''

45''

44''

43''

42''

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

L.AmericaLCDDemandPriceBandMix

USD1500+

USD500-1500

<USD500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

USD500

USD450

USD400

USD350

USD300

USD250

USD200

©GfK2021 9

W.EuropeLCDDemand:W.Europeisexpectedtoslightlydeclinein2Q21asstrengthduetoEURO2021isoffsetbynegativeimpactsfromtighteninglockdownmeasuresinFrance&GermanyandtheslowreopeningofsocialvenuesintheUK;Adoubledigity/ydeclineisexpectedin2H21duetostrengthin2020;Additionally,oncevaccinationreachesabove60%ofthepopulation(GB53%,EU31%),itisexpectedthatmostrestrictionswillbelifted,resultinginincreasedtravelandreducedTVconsumption;

W.EuropeLCDTVUnits

+15.8%⇒-10.0%

Europe

W.Europe2019

LCDDemand

Other

France

15%

22%

Spain

Germany

20%

11%

Italy

GreatBritain

14%

19%

©GfK2021

2019 2020 2021-Current

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

W.EuropeLCDSizeMigration&ASP

Smalleravg.sizecomparedtootherdevelopedmarkets(N.America/Dev.Asia)duetorelativelysmalllivingspace;

Brandsareexpectedtopushpremiumfeatures(e.g.miniLED,DolbyVisionIQetc.)amidsthighpanelpricingtoimprovemargins,resultinginhigherASP;

Sizemigrationisexpectedtoacceleratein2H21duetosofteroveralldemandwiththemixofpremiummodelsincreasing;

W.EuropeLCDDemandSizeMix

W.EuropeLCDDemandPriceBandMix

100%

90%

60"-69"

50''

100%

90%

USD1500+

USD650

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

55"-59"

50"-54"

45"-49"

40"-44"

30"-34"

20"-24"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

49''

48''

47''

46''

45''

44''

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

USD500-1500

USD600

USD550

USD500

<USD500

USD450

USD400

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2020

2021

©GfK2021 11

C.EuropeLCDDemand:Lockdownsandhighpricingnegativelyimpactedtheregion,resultinginy/ydeclinein1Q21;

2Q21isexpectedtogrowy/yduetolackoflockdownsandpromotionsduringEURO2021,withthebiggestimpactexpectedinPoland&Hungaryduetohighfootballinginterestandcompetingteams;2H21isexpectedtodeclineslightlyy/yastheliftingoflockdownsasvaccinationratesincreaseresultinlowerpurchasinginsaturatedmarkets,offsetbyexpectedcontinuedexpansioninunsaturatedmarkets(e.g.Russia)withrecoveryinconsumerconfidence;

+9.9%⇒-5.5%

Europe

C.Europe2019

LCDDemand

Czechia

5%

Hungary

4%

Other

Ukraine

21%

Poland

6%

12%

Romania

10%

Russia

42%

C.EuropeLCDTVUnits

2019 2020 2021-Current

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

©GfK2021 12

C.EuropeLCDSizeMigration&ASP

CISmarket(avg.size:42”;ASP:USD348)vsex-CISmarket(avg.size:47”;ASP:USD477)*2021YTD

ASPisexpectedtobelargelyflatin2021ashighcomponentcostandcurrencydepreciationinRussiakeepspricinghigh;

Sizemigrationin2021largelycomesfromcountrieslikePolandandCzechRepublic;

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

C.EuropeLCDDemandSizeMix

60"-69"

55"-59"

50"-54"

45"-49"

40"-44"

30"-34"

20"-24"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

46''

45''

44''

43''

42''

41''

40''

39''

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

C.EuropeLCDDemandPriceBandMix

USD1500+

USD500-1500

<USD500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

USD450

USD400

USD350

USD300

USD250

USD200

USD150

USD100

USD50

USD0

©GfK2021 13

MEALCDDemand:MEAdemandisexpectedtogrowy/yin2Q21duetolackoflockdownsandamorestableoilprice,withnationse.g.SaudiArabia,theUAE&SouthAfricaexpectedtogrow;ThiswasslightlyoffsetbythenegativityinTurkeyduetolockdowninAPR/MAY-21;2H21islikelytodecliney/yasthenegativeeconomicimpactsofCOVIDareexpectedtoresultinsofterex-promotionaldemand,especiallyincountrieslikeTurkeywhichareseeingcurrencydepreciations,posingarisktostrongBlackFridaydemand;

+2.7%⇒-1.2%

MEA

MEA2019

LCDDemand

Israel

Egypt

3%

Morocco

13%

4%

Other

41%

Pakistan

11%

SaudiArabia

Turkey

6%

14%

SouthAfrica

7%

MEALCDTVUnits

2019 2020 2021-Current

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

©GfK2021 14

MEALCDSizeMigration&ASP

Agrowingmarketingwithimprovingavg.sizebuteconomicnegativityduetoCOVIDhasresultedinsoftersizemigration;

Avg.sizeisexpectedtoremainfairlylowuntillatterpartoftheyearwhentheeconomyrecovers;

ASPisexpectedtobelargelystablewithinaboutUSD40-50ofitscurrentlevelsashighpanelcostsnegativelyimpactpricingresultinginconsumersoptingalsoformoretier-2brands;

MEALCDDemandSizeMix

MEALCDDemandPriceBandMix

100%

47''

100%

USD1500+

60"-69"

90%

46''

90%

USD500-1500

55"-59"

80%

80%

50"-54"

46''

70%

70%

45"-49"

60%

45''

60%

50%

45''

50%

40"-44"

40%

40%

44''

<USD500

30%

30%

44''

20%

20%

30"-34"

10%

43''

10%

0%

20"-24"

43''

0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

2020

2021

USD440

USD420

USD400

USD380

USD360

USD340

USD320

USD300

©GfK2021 15

ChineseMainlandLCDDemand:Chinesemainlanddemandisexpectedtodecliney/yin2Q21-3Q21ashighpricingnegativelyimpactsunitsdemandonlow-endmodels,withbrandsshiftingfocustoverylargesizedTVs(65”orabove)/morepremiumfeatures;In4Q21ascomponentpricingisexpectedtodecline,low-endpricingwillproportionatelyimprove,with11/11expectedtobepositivey/y;

-14.0%⇒-1.5%

ChineseMainland

Global2019

LCDDemand

ChineseMainlandLCDTVUnits

2019 2020 2021-Current

7.0m

6.0m

5.0m

4.0m

Chinesemainland

21%

3.0m

2.0m

Other

79%

1.0m

0.0m

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

©GfK2021

16

ChineseMainlandLCDSizeMigration&ASP

Brandsareexpectedtoincreasefocusonlarge-sizedLCDandpremiummodelsin2021toimproveprofitabilityamidsthighpanelpricing;

IncreaseinTVpricingfrombrandsandretailersareexpectedtoresultinsignificanty/ygrowthinASP;

Aggressivesizemigrationin2021withstrongmixofthe60-69”segment,whilst32/43/55”arelikelytolosesharesy/y;

Significantgrowthrateisexpectedtobeseeninthe75”segment;

ChinesemainlandLCDDemandSizeMix ChinesemainlandLCDDemandPriceBandMix

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

58''

100%

USD1500+

90%

56''

60"-69"

80%

USD500-1500

54''

70%

52''

60%

55"-59"

50%

50''

50"-54"

40%

<USD500

45"-49"

48''

30%

40"-44"

20%

46''

10%

30"-34"

44''

0%

20"-24"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

2020

2021

USD550

USD500

USD450

USD400

USD350

USD300

©GfK2021 17

Emg.AsiaLCDDemand:Demandisexpectedtogrowaggressivelyin1H21duetoextremenegativityduetolockdownsin2020,especiallyinIndia,thoughrecentnewsonCOVIDinthecountryposesarisktothispositivity;4Q21isexpectedtodecliney/yduetostrongpost-lockdowndemandin2020,whilst2021isexpectedtobesofterduetotheworseningsituationinIndia,with4Q21purchasingpowerlikelytobelowerduetonegativeeconomicimpactsofCOVID;

-5.3%⇒+3.6%

Emg.Asia

Emg.Asia2019

LCDDemand

Other

10%

Vietnam

15% India

47%

Thailand

11%

Malaysia

Indonesia

14%

3%

Emg.AsiaLCDTVUnits

2019 2020 2021-Current

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

©GfK2021 18

Emg.AsiaLCDSizeMigration&ASP

• Strongmixofthe32”segmentdrivenbyIndiaduetohighVATtaxonTV,resultinginsmallavg.sizebutrelativelyhighASPinthecountry;

Vietnam&Thailandfocusmoreon50/55”4KTVs;

Highpricing&softpurchasingpowerisexpectedtopushconsumerstooptforsmallermodels,reusltinginsoftersizemigrationin2021;

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Emg.AsiaLCDDemandSizeMix

60"-69"

55"-59"

50"-54"

45"-49"

40"-44"

30"-34"

20"-24"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

43''

42''

42''

41''

41''

40''

40''

39''

39''

38''

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Emg.AsiaLCDDemandPriceBandMix

USD1500+

USD500-1500

<USD500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

USD400

USD380

USD360

USD340

USD320

USD300

USD280

USD260

USD240

USD220

USD200

©GfK2021 19

JapanLCDDemand:Japandemandisexpectedtogrowy/yasextensionstothestateofemergencyoccur,limitingmovementandincreasingTVviewershipuntil3Q21;4Q21isexpectedtodeclineheavilyy/yduetotheendofOlympics-relatedpromotionsandtheliftingoflockdownmeasures;

+14.6%⇒+2.2%

Japan

Global2019

LCDDemand

Japan

2%

Other

98%

JapanLCDTVUnits

2019 2020 2021-Current

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

©GfK2021

20

JapanLCDSizeMigration&ASP

• Smallavg.sizecomparedtootherdevelopedcountriesasconsumersfocusmoreonqualityinsteadofsize,resultinginahighmixofpremiummodels;

Brandsincreasedpricingon2021lineupswithmoreconsumersoptingfor24/32”models,resultingindeclinesinavg.size&ASPin1Q21;However,itisexpectedtoimprovein2H21drivenbypromotions;

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

JapanLCDDemandSizeMix

60"-69"

55"-59"

50"-54"

45"-49"

40"-44"

30"-34"

20"-24"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

46''

45''

44''

43''

42''

41''

40''

39''

38''

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

JapanLCDDemandPriceBandMix

USD900

USD1500+

USD850

USD800

USD500-1500

USD750

USD700

USD650

USD600

<USD500

USD550

USD500

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug

SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2020

2021

©GfK2021 21

Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDDemand:Dev.Asiademandisexpectedtobenegativethroughout2021aslockdowndemandremainedaggressiveacrossmuchoftheregionsin2020duetohighawarenessandstrongbordercontrols,withonlySingapore&NewZealandseeingaggressivedeclinesin2020;Thisresultsintoughcompswith2020anddemandbeingpulledforward,long-termouroutlookforDev.Asiaisthatofalargelystablehighavg.size,highASPmarket;

+14.1%⇒-10.0%

Dev.Asiaex-Japan

Dev.Asia2019

LCDDemand

Taiwan,China

17%

Australia

37%

SouthKorea

29%

HongKong,ChinaSingaporeNewZealand7%

4% 5%

Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDTVUnits

2019 2020 2021-Current

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

©GfK2021 22

Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDSizeMigration&ASP

Strongmixofpremiummodelsduetohighpurchasingpower,resultinginhighavg.size&highASPoftheregion;

Aggressivesizemigrationin2021drivenbyanimprovingmixofSouthKorea(avg.size:60”;ASP:USD1400+)*2021YTDduetosofteningdemandinTaiwan,China&Australiafollowingaggressivegrowthin2020;

Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDDemandSizeMix Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDDemandPriceBandMix

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

70"-79"

60"-69"

55"-59"

50"-54"

45"-49"

40"-44"

30"-34"

20"-24"

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

59''

100%

58''

90%

57''

80%

56''

70%

55''

60%

54''

50%

53''

40%

52''

30%

51''

20%

50''

10%

49''

0%

USD1500+

USD500-1500

<USD500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

2021

USD1100

USD1050

USD1000

USD950

USD900

USD850

USD800

USD750

USD700

USD650

USD600

©GfK2021 23

TVTechnology

©GfK2021 24

2021OLEDdemandoutlook:5.9munits+25%y/y

GrowthtocontinuetomainlyfocusonWEUduetosmalleravg.sizethanN.America/Dev.Asia,highpurchasingpowerandhighbrandcompetition;

55”remainsthefocus,whilst65/77”remainlargelyunaffordableformostconsumers;

48”pricingremainslargelythesameas55”,resultinginlimiteddemand;

If65”pricingdeclines,OLEDmixinN.America/Dev.Asiaisexpectedtoimprove,posingarisktoexistinghigh-end65”LCDTVs;

Globalex-NAOLEDDemandbySize

GlobalOLEDSell-OutbyRegion

2500000

48"

55"

65"

77"

88"

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

9.0m

8.0m

7.0m

6.0m

5.0m

4.0m

3.0m

2.0m

N.America

C.Europe

Emg.Asia

4.7m

0.4m

3.4m 0.5m

0.4m