IMF-超越年平均值：季节性气温对美国各县就业增长的影响（英）

ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSCountiesHaNguyenIMFWorkingPaperspasoJiqaJasaeJouindJo6Jassq(\uaeu\uoJ)s(enpeJaduqIisuap\oaIioi\oomman\senp\oanoouJe6apaqe\a.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2023IthankRabahArezki,BasBakker,AdolfoBarajas,RudolfsBems,AndrewBerg,MaiDao,MercedesGarcia-Escribano,HuiHe,ToanPhan,KoralaiKirabaeva,VladimirKlyuev,AntonKorinek,RuyLama,EmanueleMassetti,RodolfoMaino,JoeProcopio,NoomanRebei,NikolaSpataforaandMaryamVaziriforveryhelpfulcommentsandfeedback,andRuchunLiforeditorialhelp.IamgratefultoBerkayAkyapiandEmanueleMassettiforintroducingtomeclimatedataviaGoogleEarthEngine.©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/142IMFWorkingPaperInstituteofCapacityDevelopmentBeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSCountiesPreparedbyHaNguyen*AuthorizedfordistributionbyMercedesGarcia-EscribanoJune2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Usingquarterlytemperatureandemploymentdatabetween1990and2021,thispaperuncoversnuancedevidenceontheimpactofseasonaltemperaturewithinUScounties:higherwintertemperatureincreasesprivatesectoremploymentgrowthwhilehighersummertemperaturedecreasesit.Theimpactsofhighertemperatureinmildseasons,fallandspring,arestatisticallyinsignificant.Moreover,thenegativeimpactofhighersummertemperaturepersistswhilethepositiveimpactofhighertemperatureinthewinterismoreshort-lived.Thenegativeeffectsofahottersummerarepervasiveandpersistentinmanysectors:mostsignificantlyin“Construction”and“LeisureandHospitality”butalsoin“Trade,Transport,andUtilities”and“FinancialActivities.”Incontrast,thepositiveeffectsofawarmerwinterarelesspervasive.Theemploymenteffectofahottersummerhasbeenmoresevereinrecentdecades.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Nguyen,H.(2023).BeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSCounties.IMFWorkingPapers,2023/142JELClassificationNumbers:C33,C55,E24,O44,Q54Keywords:Climatechange;temperature;employment;UScountiesAuthor’sE-MailAddress:Hnguyen7@WORKINGPAPERSImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSCountiesPreparedbyHaNguyen11IthankRabahArezki,BasBakker,AdolfoBarajas,RudolfsBems,AndrewBerg,MaiDao,MercedesGarcia-Escribano,HuiHe,ToanPhan,KoralaiKirabaeva,VladimirKlyuev,AntonKorinek,RuyLama,EmanueleMassetti,RodolfoMaino,JoeProcopio,NoomanRebei,NikolaSpataforaandMaryamVaziriforveryhelpfulcommentsandfeedback,andRuchunLiforeditorialhelp.IamgratefultoBerkayAkyapiandEmanueleMassettiforintroducingtomeclimatedataviaGoogleEarthEngine.IMFWORKINGPAPERSBeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSIMFWORKINGPAPERS2ContentsI.Introduction 4II.ATheoreticalFramework 6III.DataandEmpiricalSpecification 9Data 9EmpiricalSpecifications 10IV.MainFindings 11AnnualRegressions 11MainFindings 12V.SummerandWinterImpactsAcrossState’sClimate 15VI.OntheMechanismsoftheSummerTemperatureEffects 18VII.OntheMechanismsoftheWinterTemperatureEffects 21VIII.EffectsofTemperaturebyDecade 23IX.RobustnessChecks 26NotUsingCountyEmploymentWeights 26DroppingExtremeEmploymentGrowth 27DroppingRecessionQuarters 27ControllingforNaturalDisasters 28ControllingforPrecipitation 29X.Conclusions 30References 30FiguresFigure1:DynamicImpactonYoYEmploymentGrowthtoaOneDegreeFahrenheitHigherTemperature 14Figure2:AverageSummerImpactbyState 16Figure3:AverageWinterImpactbyState 17Figure4:TheEffectonEmploymentGrowthofHigherSummerTemperaturebySector 19Figure5:TheEffectofHigherWinterTemperaturebySector 21Figure6:AverageEmploymentSharesintheSummerandWinterinaCounty 23Figure7:AverageAnnualIncreaseinSummerTemperaturebyStateover1990and2021 24Figure8:DynamicImpactofYoYEmploymentGrowthtoaOneDegreeFahrenheitHigherTemperature(RegressionsareUnweighted) 26IMFWORKINGPAPERSBeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSIMFWORKINGPAPERS3Figure9:DynamicImpactonYoYEmploymentGrowthtoaOneDegreeFahrenheitHigherTemperature(TopandBottom1percentileofEmploymentGrowthDataareDropped) 27Figure10:DynamicImpactonYoYEmploymentGrowthtoaOneDegreeFahrenheitHigherTemperature(EmploymentGrowthDataforRecessionaryQuartersareDropped) 28Figure11:DynamicImpactonYoYEmploymentGrowthtoaOneDegreeFahrenheitHigherTemperature(ControllingforNaturalDisasters) 29Figure12:DynamicImpactonYoYEmploymentGrowthtoaOneDegreeFahrenheitHigherTemperature(ControllingforPrecipitation) 29TablesTable1:SummaryStatistics 10Table2:ImpactofAnnualAverageTemperatureonYoYGrowthofAnnualAverageEmployment 11Table3:ImpactofTemperatureonYoYPrivateEmploymentGrowth 12Table4:RelationshipbetweenEmploymentEffectandaState’sClimate 18Table5:ImpactofTemperaturebyDecade 25IMFWORKINGPAPERSBeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSIMFWORKINGPAPERS1AlsoseerecentsurveysbyDelletal.(2014)andAuffhammer(2018)I.IntroductionClimatechangeisthebiggestchallengeforhumankind.Temperatureisrising.Theglobalaveragetemperatureisalreadyabout1.2degreeCelsiushigherthanthepre-industriallevel.Droughts,wildfires,andmassivestormsarestartingtooccurmorefrequentlywithdevastatingeffects.Understandingtheimpactofrisingtemperature,themostbasicmanifestationofclimatechange,oneconomicactivityisfundamentaltoadaptationandmitigationefforts.Theeconomicliteraturehasgenerallyfoundthathighertemperaturehurtseconomicactivity.Earlyliteratureexaminestherelationshipbetweenaveragetemperatureandaggregateeconomicvariables(e.g.,SachsandWarner,1997;Gallup,Sachs,andMellinger,1999).Itfindsthathottercountriestendtobepoorer.However,thisrelationshipmightbedrivenbyomittedvariablessuchascountryinstitutions.Recentliteratureusesfluctuationsintemperaturewithinacountryoraregiontocontrolforslow-movingcharacteristics(seeforexample,Delletal.,2012;Cashinetal.,2017;Colacitoetal.,2019;LettaandTol,2019;Acevedoetal.,2020;Kahnetal.,2021).1Itfindsthathighertemperaturereducestheeconomicgrowthofpoorcountries(Delletal.,2012;Acevedoetal.,2020)andtheUS(Colacitoetal.,2019).Thenegativeeffectsrunthroughreducedtotalfactorproductivitygrowth(LettaandTol,2019),andreducedinvestmentandlaborproductivity(Acevedoetal.,2020;KalkuhlandWenz,2020).Burkeetal.(2015)documentthenon-lineareffectoftemperature:economicgrowthriseswithaverageannualtemperatureuntilaround13degreesCelsiusanddropsafterthat.Thispaperexaminesthedynamiceffectsoftemperatureontheprivatesector’semploymentgrowthatalocallevel,namelyUScounty,andhighfrequency,namelyquarterly.Goingtothecountyandquarterlylevelsallowsformoreprecisetemperaturemeasurement.Therefore,itcouldestimatetheeffectsoftemperaturemorepreciselyanduncoverthesubtleeffectofseasonaltemperature.Thispaperfocusesonjobgrowthasthemaineconomicoutcome.JobsarefeaturedprominentlyintheUS'sdiscussionsofclimatechangemitigations.Manyworrythatclimatechangemitigationeffortswillhurtjobs(AFP,2022).Thispaperfindsthathighertemperature,onaverage,hurtsjobsintheUS.Usingdatabetween1990and2021,thispaperdiscoversopposingeffectsofhighertemperatureinthewinterandsummer.Onaverage,withinacounty,highersummertemperaturereducesprivatesectoremploymentgrowth,whilehigherwintertemperatureincreasesit.Theimpactsofhighertemperatureinmildseasons,fallandspring,arestatisticallyinsignificant.Thefindingsshowcasetheheterogenousandnuancedeffectsoftemperatureshocks.Thispaperfindsinterestingdynamiceffectsofseasonaltemperature.Highersummertemperaturehurtseconomicactivityinthecurrentandfollowingquarters.Atemporaryone-degreeFahrenheit(F)highersummertemperaturedecreasesyear-over-year(YoY)employmentgrowthofthatsummerby0.063percent.ItalsodecreasesYoYemploymentgrowthofthefollowingfallandwinterby0.08and0.075percent,respectively.Incontrast,thepositiveimpactofhighertemperatureinthewinterismoreshort-lived.Atemporaryone-degreeFahrenheitwarmerwinterboostsYoYemploymentgrowthinthatwinterby0.05percentbuthasstatisticallyinsignificanteffectsonemploymentgrowthinthefollowingspringandsummer.Insum,thenegativeimpactsofhighertemperatureinthesummerarelargerandmorepersistentthanthepositiveimpactsofhighertemperatureinthewinter.Therefore,theaverageemploymenteffectofhighertemperatureacrossseasonsisnegative.Theeconomicliteraturetypicallyexaminestheimpactofannualaveragetemperatureonannualeconomicoutcomes(e.g.,seeDeschênesandGreenstone,2007;Delletal.,2012;Burkeetal.,2015;Acevedoetal.,2020;KalkuhlandWenz,2020;Akyapietal.,2022).However,sincetemperaturecanvarygreatlywithinayear,fromfreezingwinterstoscorchingsummers,thispaperarguesthatseasonaltemperatureisabetterapproximationofweatherthanannualtemperature.2Moreimportantly,theeconomicstructuresofdifferentseasonscouldbeverydifferent.Forexample,construction,travel,andtourismareexpectedtoriseinsummerandfallinwinter.Therefore,examiningtheeffectsofseasonaltemperatureonseasonaleconomicactivitycouldoffernewinsightstocomplementtheexistinganalysesusingannualaveragetemperatureandannual-averageeconomicoutcomes.Inaddition,workingwiththecountry-averagetemperatureisalsonotidealsinceevenwithinacountry,temperaturecanvarygreatly.Acountry,orevenaUSstate,mayhaveseveralclimatezones.Acaseoflocalizedtemperature,suchasatthecountylevel,canbemadehere.Nevertheless,granularanalysescomewiththeirchallengesandissues.First,andthemostobviousissueisthelackofhigh-frequencyeconomicdataatthelocallevel.OnereasonwhyemploymentgrowthischosenasthemainvariableofinterestisthattheUShasreliablequarterlydataatthecountylevel(moreonthatinsectionIII).Thesecond,andmoreconceptualissueislabormobilityatthelocallevel.Atthecountrylevel,labormobilityisrelativelyrestricted.Atleastintheshort-run,workershavetostayinacountryandtrytofindworkwithatemperatureshock.Butananalysisatthelocallevel,suchasUScounty,implieslabormobilityismuchlessrestricted.Peoplecouldmoveinandoutofacountytoworkinanothercountyinresponsetoatemperatureshock.Therefore,theeffectsoftemperatureonemploymentwithlabormobilitycanbelargerthanwithout.DeryuginaandHsiang(2017)andColacitoetal.(2019)examinetheimpactsofseasonaltemperatureatUScountyandstatelevels,respectively.However,theystilluseannualeconomicoutcomes,whichcouldmaskinterestingdynamiceffectsofseasonaltemperature.Thisanalysiscomplementstheiranalysesbynotfocusingonannualeconomicoutcomesbutonthehigh-frequencyimpactoftemperatureonquarterlyemploymentgrowthinUScounties.Byadoptingthislocalandhigh-frequencyempiricalframeworktogether,itunveilsnovelandinterestingdynamiceffectsofseasonaltemperature.Itcouldalsoshedlightonthemechanismsbydocumentingtheeffectsineachindustryandhowtheypropagateoverthenextquarters.Inotherwords,byobservingtemperature’simpactsondifferentsectorsatahighfrequency,insteadofbeingdilutedbytheannualaverages,thepapercanprovideadditionalinsightsintothemechanisms.Thispaperfindsthatthenegativeeffectsofahottersummerarepervasiveandpersistentinmanysectors:mostsignificantlyin“Construction”and“LeisureandHospitality”butalsoin“Trade,TransportandUtilities”and“FinancialActivities.”Employmentgrowthinthesesectorsmaygetdirectlyhitbyrisingtemperature.Itisalsopossiblethatsomeoftheloweremploymentgrowthisindirectlyaffectedduetoinput-outputlinkagesbetweendifferentsectorsortheaggregatedemandeffect.Forexample,jobgrowthin“FinancialActivities”couldbedampenedduetoaslowerfinancialservicedemandfrom“Construction.”Incontrast,thepositiveeffectsofa2Forexample,highestdailytemperatureinWashingtonD.C.(UnitedStates)in2021rangesfromthemid-30sFahrenheitinthewintertothemid-90sFahrenheitinthesummer.TheaverageannualtemperatureforWashingtonD.C.isabout70-degreeFahrenheit.Ifweusethisannualaverageof70-degreeFahrenheitinouranalyses,wemightbemistakenthatWashingtonD.C.’sweatherismoremoderatewhileinfact,ithasacoldwinterandahotsummer.IMFWORKINGPAPERSBeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSIMFWORKINGPAPERSwarmerwinterarelesspervasive,onlyin“Construction,”“Leisureandhospitality,”and“NaturalResourcesandMining.”Itisalsomoreshort-lived.Therichnessofcounty-leveldataallowsfortheexaminationoftheeffectbyUSstate–whichisanotherimportantcontribution.Thispaperdiscoversarelationshipbetweenthenegativeeffectsofahottersummerwithastate’ssummerclimate:hotterstateshavemoreseverenegativeimpactsofhighersummertemperature.Somecoolerstates(e.g.,AlaskaandMassachusetts)evenbenefitfromthehighersummertemperature.Ontheotherhand,therelationshipbetweentheimpactofhigherwintertemperatureandastate’swinterclimateisnotasclear.Animportantpointofdiscussionishowwouldthesefindingsonshort-termresponseshelpuspredictthelong-termresponsestohotterclimates?Ithasbeenarguedthattheshort-runresponsestotemperaturefluctuationsarelikelynotthesameasthelong-runresponsestoclimatechange(seethediscussioninBurkeandEmerick,2016,forexample).Thisisareasonableargument.First,thefuturemagnitudeofclimatechangeisuncertain,dependingonhumankind’smitigationefforts.Inaddition,therecouldbearoleofadaptation.Adaptationefforts,suchasmorewidespreaduseofdrought-resistantseedsorair-conditioning,mightsoftentheimpactofrisingtemperatureinthefuture.Ifso,theshort-runimpactsmayoverstatethelong-runimpactsofclimate(seealsoMassettiandMendelsohn,2018).Conversely,therisingtemperaturemaycausepermanenteffectsonemployment(suchasemigrationoutofthehotareas).Inthatcase,theshort-termimpactsoftemperaturefluctuationmightunderstatethelong-runimpactsofclimatechange.Thispapercontributestothisdiscussionwithtwosetsoffindings.First,awarmerwinterhelpseconomicactivities,whileahottersummerhurtsthem.Inaddition,thenegativeeffectsofahottersummerinhotterstatesarelargerandmorepersistent.Thefindingssuggestthatcolderregionsorcountriesmaybenefitfromclimatechangewhilehotteronesmaybehurtwithoutsignificantadaptationefforts.Theseheterogeneouseffectspresentachallengeforaunifiedefforttofightclimatechange(whethertheyareglobaleffortsorthoseintheUS).Second,thispaperdiscoversmoresevereimpactsofsummertemperatureintheUSinrecentdecades(2000-2009and2010-2021)thanin1990-1999.Aone-degreeFahrenheithottersummerinthe2010sreducesemploymentgrowthinthesummerandthefollowingfallbyabout0.1percentmorethanitdidinthe1990s.ThisfindingimpliesadaptationeffortsintheUShavenottakenholdorsignificantlyalteredtheeffectsoftemperatureshocks.Thisfindinghasimplicationsforothercountries.EvenfortheUS,whichisadevelopedcountrywithgoodadaptationcapacityandwithagenerallymildclimate,weobservenegativeimpactsofhighertemperatureinthesummer.Forpoorer,hottercountries,theeffectsofrisingheat,withoutsignificantadaptationefforts,arelikelymuchmoresevere.Thepaperisorganizedasfollows.SectionIIpresentsasimpletheoreticalframeworktomotivatetheempiricalspecification.SectionIIIpresentsdataandthemainempiricalspecification.SectionIVpresentsthemainfindingsontheoverallimpacts.SectionVpresentstheimpactbytheUSstateandpatternsbetweentheimpactmagnitudeandastate’sclimate.SectionsVIandVIIexaminethesectoralimpactsofahottersummerandawarmerwinter.SectionVIIIpresentstheeffectsbydecade.SectionIXpresentsrobustnesschecks.SectionXconcludes.II.ATheoreticalFrameworkThissectionpresentsatheoreticalmotivationfortheempiricalsetup,wheretemperaturecanhavebothagrowtheffectandaleveleffectonemployment.InspiredbytheframeworkpresentedinDelletal.(2012),Iletemploymentinquarterqafunctionofthecurrentquarter’sproductivityandlastquarter’semployment:IMFWORKINGPAPERSBeyondtheAnnualAverages:ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSIMFWORKINGPAPERSwhereqdenotesquarter,sdenotestheseason(i.e.,summer,fall,winter,orspring).Lq,TqandAqareemployment,temperatureandproductivityinquarterq.Lq−1isemploymentinthepreviousquarter.Employmentinaquartercanbedrivenbythecurrentquarter’sproductivityandemploymentinthepreviousquarter.Capitalisomittedforsimplicity.Employmentatquarterqcandependonemploymentatquarterq−1becausehiringmaytaketime.e小sTqdenotestheleveleffectofthequarter’stemperatureonemployment.Employmentcanbeaffectedbythequarter’saveragetemperature.Apositive/negative/zeropsimpliesthathighertemperaturehasapositive/negative/zeroleveleffectonemployment.Notethattheparameterses,ps,ps,入sareseasonspecific.Thatis,theparametersaredifferentforwinter,spring,summer,andfall.Forexample,highertemperaturemayhavedifferent(orevenopposite)leveleffectsinthesummerversusinthewinter,hencepsummershouldbedifferenttopwinter.Seasonalproductivitygrowthisasfollows:Equation(2)statesthatseasonalproductivitygrowthdependsonthisquarter’stemperatureaswellasthetemperatureofthesameseasonlastyear(4quartersago).6sand仙sarealsoseasonspecific.Tq,thisquarter’stemperature,couldhaveapositiveornegativeeffectonseasonalproductivitygrowth.Tq−4,temperatureofthesamequarterinthepreviousyear,mayaffectthisquarter’sproductivitygrowthviatwochannels.Firstisthebaseeffect.Forexample,alowerTq−4couldlowerAq−4,whichboostslog(Aq)−log(Aq−4)duetothebaseeffect.Secondistheproductivitytransmissioneffect.AlowerTq−4couldlowerAq−4whichcouldinsteaddepressseasonalproductivitygrowthforthefollowingyear.Therefore,onthenet,itisnotclearthat仙sisexpectedtohaveapositiveornegativevalue.Equations(1)and(2)statethattemperaturecouldhavealeveleffectonemployment(viae小sTq).Itcouldalsohaveagrowtheffectonemploymentviaseasonalproductivitygrowthspecifiedinequation(2).3Now,let’srearrangeequations(1)and(2)toderiveanempiricalspecification.Foreaseofexposition,let’sstartequation(1)forthesummerLq=esummere小summerTqAsummerLmer(3)andsubstituteLq−1=espringe小springTq−1AL(notethatsinceqisthesummer,q−1isthespring).(3)becomesLq=esummere小summerTqAsummer(espringe小springTq−1AL)入summer(4)3Althoughhumankind’sgreen-housegasemissionsinfluenceglobaltemperature,localtemperatureisconsideredexogenoustolocaleconomicactivities.4Asdiscussed,temperaturebetweenq−4andq−7hasbaseeffectsaswellaspotentialproductivitytransmissioneffects.KeepsubstitutingLq−2=ewintere小winterTq−2ALterandLq−3=efalle小fallTq−3ALinto(4),wecanseethat(1)takesthefollowinggeneralform:(5)statesthatemploymentisafunctionoftemperatureandproductivityofthisquarteraswellasthoseinthepreviousthreequartersandemploymentofquarterq−4.Notethatallparametersof(5)areseasonspecific.Similar,forthesameseasoninthepreviousyear(i.e.,q−4):Subtractlogof(5)bylogof(6):whereΔlog(Lq)=log(Lq)−log(Lq−4)isyear-over-yeargrowthinemployment;ΔTq−T=Tq−T−Tq−T−4indicatesyear-over-yearchangeintemperature;andΔlog(Aq−T)=log(Lq−T)−log(Lq−T−4)indicatesyear-over-yeargrowthinseasonalproductivity.Substituting(2)into(7)yields:Rearrangetermsin(8)yields:eforeallparametersareseasonspecificthatistheyvarydependingonwhetherthequarterqissummer,fall,winter,orspring).IaminterestedinthecoefficientsF0,F1,F2,F3,representingtheeffectsoftemperatureinthisquarterandthreequartersagoonthisquarter’semployment.Intheempiricalsection,IwillestimateF0,F1,F2,F3foreachseason.Tq−4toTq−7andΔlog(Lq−4)areconsideredcontrolvariables.4III.DataandEmpiricalSpecificationEmploymentdata:Quarterlyemploymentdatabetween1990and2021attheUScountylevelarefromtheUSCensus’sQuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWages(QCEW).TheQuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWages(QCEW)programpublishesaquarterlycountof(formal)employmentandwagesreportedbyemployerscoveringmorethan95percentofUSjobs,availableatthecounty,metropolitan(MSA),state,andnationallevelsbyindustry.Majorexclusionsfromthedatasetincludeself-employedworkers,mostagriculturalworkersonsmallfarms,allmembersoftheArmedForces,electedofficialsinmoststates,mostemployeesofrailroads,somedomesticworkers,moststudentworkersatschools,andemployeesofcertainsmallnonprofitorganizations.QCEWincludesonlyabouthalfoftheU.S.agriculturalsector’semployment.Therefore,agriculturalemploymentisnotincludedintheanalysis.Dataforall50USstatesplusWashingtonD.Carecollected.Thenyear-over-yearpercentchangeinemploymentlevelatthecountyleveliscalculated.Growthinallprivateemploymentischosenasthekeyoutcome,butmoredisaggregatedemploymentisalsousedtoexaminethemechanismsoftheimpacts.ThisanalysisfocusesonprivateemploymentratherthanpublicemploymentbecauseprivateemploymenthasamuchlargershareintheUS.Inaddition,growthinprivateemploymentismorelikelytoreflecttheimpactsofrisingtemperature.Incontrast,growthinpublicemploymentcouldreflectadaptationeffortsbycountygovernments,whichisnotmyfocus.Temperaturedata:TemperaturedataforthecontiguousUSstatesarefromgridMET.gridMETisadatasetofdailyhigh-spatialresolution(about4km,1/24thdegree)surfacemeteorologicaldatacoveringthecontiguousUSfrom1979-yesterday.5Temperaturedataforthetworemainingstates,AlaskaandHawaii,arefromtheglobalERA5datasetwithlargergrids(about30km).ViatheplatformGoogleEarthEngine,IcollectmaximumdailytemperaturedatafromGridMETbetween1990andtheendof2021,matchingthetimecoverageoftheemploymentdata.However,ERA5dataareonlyavailabletoJuly9,2020.Hence,temperaturedataforAlaskaandHawaiiinthispaperonlygountilQ2of2020.Then,temperatureisaveragedacrossgridswithinacountytoconstructdailytemperaturedataattheUScountylevel.Next,temperatureisaveragedacrossdaystogeneratetemperatureatthequarterlyfrequency.TemperatureisinFahrenheit.Tomatchtemperaturedatawithquarterlyemploymentdata,thisanalysisdenotesaveragetemperatureforQuarter1(fromJanuarytoMarch)aswintertemperature,theaveragetemperatureforQuarter2(fromApriltoJune)asspringtemperature,theaveragetemperatureforQuarter3(fromJulytoSeptember)assummertemperature,theaveragetemperatureforQuarter4(fromOctobertoDecember)asfalltemperature.Precipitationdata:Precipitationdataarecollectedsimilarlytothewaytemperaturedataarecollected.First,totaldailyprecipitationdatabygridsarecollected,thenaveragedacrossgridswithinacountyandacrossthedayswithinaseasontogenerateseasonalaverageprecipitationforeachUScounty.Precipitationdata