2023年亚太经合组织地区趋势分析（英）

APEC

Regional

Trends

AnalysisMay

2023

•

PolicySupportUnitCopyright©2023APECSecretariatGDPGrowthandOutlookInflationandMonetaryPolicyAPEC

RegionalxTrends

AnalysisDownsideRisksTradePerformanceandOutlookIncomeandWealthInequalitySuggestedPolicyOptionsCopyright©2023APECSecretariatKEY

POINTSAPECeconomicgrowthhasbecomeslowerandmoreunevenamidSynchronisedmonetarypolicyhikesandincreasedagriculturaloutputhavehelpedreinininflation.Tradeactivityhasdeceleratedduetoweakerglobalproductionanddemand.RisinginequalityexacerbatedbythepandemicasAPECtracksafragilerecoverypath.Policymakersneedtoremainvigilanttopreservemacroeconomicandfinancialstability.heighteneduncertainty.Copyright©2023APECSecretariat

1GDPGrowth:Global,APECandROW(%)GDPGrowthOutlook:APECEconomies(%)764.5543.43.333.13.02.82.822.62.510-1-2202220232024ActualProjectionsRest

oftheworldGlobaleconomyAPEC

reg

ion2023APEC

averageGDP

growthforecast

(3.1%)Rising

interest

rates,

unwinding

of

massive

fiscal

support

and

stubborn

inflation

dampen

growthCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

2Source:InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)WorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)April2023;Economysources;APECPSU(PolicySupport

Unit)staffcalculationsMonetaryPolicyRate(%)APECAverageInflation(%,y-o-y)121086.65.964.54.443.8202.92.9-22.62.41.5end-2021end-2022as

of

9May

2023ActualForecastNote:Themonetarypolicyframeworkin

BruneiDarussalamisbasedonacurrencyboardsystem,withtheBruneidollaranchoredtotheSingaporedollaratpar.ForSingapore,monetarypolicyisconductedthroughthetrade-weightedexchangerate,whichisallowedtofluctuatewithinapolicyband.Q1

2023

Inflation

Rate:

5.4%Synchronised

and

successive

monetary

policy

hikes

are

expected

to

rein

in

inflation;

but

forecasts

revised

upwardsCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

3Source:IMFWEOApril2023;Economysources;APECPSUstaffcalculationsEnergyPrices($/barrel,indexpoint)FAOFoodPriceIndices(indexpoint)1251007550250500400300200100018016014012010080Food

Price

Ind

ex(2014-2016=100)Cereals

Price

I

nd

ex(2014-2016=100)Sugar

PriceIndex(2014-2016=100)Crudeoil,

average

($/bbl)Nat

uralgas

index

(2010=100)Energy

prices

plunged

as

global

uncertainty

weighs

on

demandbutleading

oil

exporters’

production

cuts

could

push

up

prices

anewGeneral

increasein

agricultural

outputpulled

down

food

pricesdespitethe

upward

trend

in

sugarCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

4Source:WorldBankCommodityMarketsOutlook;FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO);APECPSUstaffcalculationsGeneralGovernmentGrossDebt(%ofGDP)1231171121141121048178747070696865

6565

6465

6565655955

5520192020202120222023Esti

matesAdvanced

Economies2024ActualAPECASEAN-5Emerging

Market

and

Developing

EconomiesHigher

interest

payments

and

reduced

fiscal

space

loom

as

debts

continue

to

riseCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

5Source:IMFWEOApril2023;Economysources;APECPSUstaffcalculationsBanking

sector

in

APEC

has

remained

stable

and

sound

amid

multiple

headwindsCapitalAdequacyRatio(%)Non-performingLoanRatio(%)AustraliaBrunei

DarussalamCanada0.8263.30.31.81.61.42.61.20.31.82Chile212020191919China1818171616Hong

Kon

g,

ChinaIndonesiaJapan1616

161515141413Korea8MalaysiaMexicoNewZealandPeru0.53.4ThePhilippinesSingaporeChinese

TaipeiThailand3.31.840.12.7United

StatesVietNam1.22CARBaselIII

minimumCAR

req

uir

em

ent

=

8Note:Basedonlatestavailabledata;dataforPapuaNewGuineaarenotavailable.Note:Basedonlatestavailabledata;dataforPapuaNewGuineaandRussiaarenotavailable.Swift

and

strong

response

by

authorities

have

served

to

calm

marketsCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

6Source:Economysources;APECPSUstaffcalculationsVolatilityIndex(indexpoint)Month-aheadstockmarketexpectationsforvolatilityCOVID-19Pandemic82.7908070605040302010GlobalFinancialCrisis80.9AsianFinancialCrisis45.7DotcomBubble45.1InterventionsonSiliconValleyBank,SignatureBankandCreditSuisse26.5001-Jan-9001-Jan-9301-Jan-9601-Jan-9901-Jan-0201-Jan-0501-Jan-0801-Jan-1101-Jan-1401-Jan-1701-Jan-2001-Jan-23VIX

remained

relatively

subdued

amid

bank

rescues

in

the

US

and

EuropeCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

7Source:ChicagoBoardOptionsExchange,CBOEVolatilityIndex:VIX,retrievedfromFRED,FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis;

APECPSUstaffcalculationsAPEC

GrowthinVolumeofMerchandiseTrade(%,y-o-y)APEC

GrowthinValueofMerchandiseTrade(%,y-o-y)11.010.626.826.510.29.31.11.20.4-0.4-1.9-2.8-1.7-4.7-2.0-6.0ExportsImportsExportsImports2019

2020

2021

20222019

2020

2021

2022Tradedecelerated

as

pandemic-related

recovery

momentum

faded

while

global

demand

weakenedCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

8Source:WorldTradeOrganization(WTO)TimeSeries;APECPSUstaffcalculationsEasing

of

cross-border

travel

restrictions

buoyed

commercial

servicesAPECGrowthinValueofTradeinCommercialServices(%,y-o-y)77.361.344.431.2

30.828.117.415.013.611.811.09.57.77.06.73.44.21.40.3-0.3-2.8-2.1-12.7-17.6-18.3-20.1-19.3-21.9-22.9-30.2-61.3-62.8ExportsImportsExportsTravelServicesQ1-Q3

2019

Q1-Q3

2020ImportsExportsImportsExportsImportsTotalCommercialServicesTransport

ServicesQ1-Q3

2021

Q1-Q3

2022Goods-related

ServicesCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

9Source:WTOTimeSeries;APECPSUstaffcalculationsAPECTradeVolumeGrowthOutlook(%,y-o-y)Forecast(2023-2025)5.24.54.44.44.34.24.14.13.93.53.01.3ExportsImportsExportsImportsGoods

onl

yGoods

and

Services2023

2024

2025Sluggish

trade

growth

due

to

substantial

global

risks,

including

geoeconomic

fragmentationCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

10Source:IMFWEOApril2023;APECPSUstaffcalculationsTrade-facilitatingandtrade-restrictivemeasuresinforceinAPECeconomies(accumulatednumber)TraderemediesinforceinAPECeconomies(accumulatednumber)700100080060040020009346016005004704003002801892001761000FacilitatingRestrictiveTradeRemedyTrade-facilitating

measures

outnumbered

trade-restrictive

measures

but

trade

remedies

are

on

the

riseCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

11Source:WTOTradeMonitoringDatabase;APECPSUstaffcalculationsChangeinAverageIncome,2019–2021(%)15%10%5%0%-

5%-10%-15%2019-20202019-2021Rising

inequality

exacerbated

by

the

pandemic

as

nearly

half

of

APEC

economies

still

seek

recoveryCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

12Source:WorldInequalityDatabase;APECPSUstaffcalculationsChangeinShareofNetPersonalWealth,byincomegroup,2019–2021(%)APEC(average)Industrialised

APEC

economies(average)Developing

APEC

e

con

omi

es(average)0.24%0.22%0.18%0.12%0.12%0.10%-0.01%-0.02%-0.02%Bottom

50%To

p

10

%To

p1%Across

the

region,

the

affluent

thrived

while

the

vulnerable

dived

amidst

the

pandemic

tideCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

13Source:WorldInequalityDatabase;APECPSUstaffcalculationsMonetarypolicytobringdowninflationandpromotefinancialstabilityFiscal

policytosupportinflationobjectivesandtargetthevulnerabletomitigaterisinginequalityxStructural

reformstoinvest

inhumancapitaldevelopment

andimproveproduct,

labor

andfinancialmarketsRoleof

regional

cooperationiscrucialtoencourageinclusivedialogueandconcertedeffortstowardssustainableandinclusivegrowthCopyright©2023APECSecretariat

14Asia-Pacific

Economic

Cooperation

(APEC)

was

established

in

1989.

The

21

member

economies

areAustralia;

Brunei

Darussalam;

Canada;

Chile;

China;

Hong

Kong,

China;

Indonesia;

Japan;

Korea;

Malaysia;Mexico;

New

Zealand;

Papua

New

Guinea;

Peru;

the

Philippines;

Russia;

Singapore;

Chinese

Taipei;Thailand;

theUnitedStates;

andViet

Nam.APEC

Policy

Support

Unit

(PSU)

was

set

up

in

2008

as

the

policy

research

and

analysis

arm

for

APEC.It

supports

APEC

members

and

fora

in

improving

the

quality

of

their

deliberations

and

decisions

andpromoting

policies

that

support

the

achievement

of

APEC’s

goals

by

providing

objective

and

high

qualityresearch,analyticalcapacity,andpolicysupportcapability.APEC

Regional

Trends

Analysis

(ARTA)

is

a

serial

publication

of

the

PSU

which

provides

an

overview

ofthe

region’s

economy

through

an

analysis

of

recent

macroeconomic,

trade

and

investment

trends.